Living Probabilistic Asset Management

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Nov 18, 2013 (3 years and 11 months ago)

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5 december 2011

Living Probabilistic
Asset Management

Dr.ir. J.A. van den Bogaard

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

2

5 december 2011

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Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

3

5 december 2011

From PSA to LPAM


PSA proven, mature methodology in Nuclear and Petro
-
Chemical Industry,
which is routinely applied



PSA focuses on Safety while critical performance characteristics of
infrastructure demands focus on RAMS aspects



PAM extends the focus on safety to RAMS



Systems and operations change over time need to be taken into account:


Physical changes in the design of a system


Changes in operating conditions


Improvements in the understanding of system behaviour in fault
conditions


More system specific data become available



Keeping the PAM useful over time it needs to be updated making it a Living
PAM

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Definition LPAM

A living PAM can be defined as a PAM analysis of a system, which is
updated, if necessary,
to reflect the current built and operational
features

and is documented in such a way that each aspect of the model
can be directly related to existing system information, operating
conditions, system documentation or the analysts’ assumptions in the
absence of such information.

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

5

5 december 2011

Characteristics of LPAM


Framework for the
process to
obtain,
maintain and optimize the
reliability level


Deming
-
circle Principle (plan
-
do
-
check
-
act)


C
omplete mix of
in
-
depth

knowledge of technical systems, reliability
analysis, maintenance


Qualitative/Quantitative approach


Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Safety (RAMS)

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Scope of LPAM

LPAM

Organization

Performance

Analysis

Contracts

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Implementation and operational process LPAM

ACT

Design Modifications

Modify FT and

Check Target

Check

Over

-

all and

Component Performance

PLAN

Specify Modifications

Instruct Contractors

DO

Implement Modifications

Perform regular

Maintenance

INITIAL PHASE

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Phase 0: Initial Phase

1.
System and function analysis

2.
Defining RAMS requirements

3.
Perform Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis

4.
Define As
-
Is situation

5.
Define As
-
Wished situation

6.
Define differences and plan activities

7.
Translate to LPAM process


Process description


Defining necessary contral and operational organisation


Define contracts (DBFM contractual aspects)

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

9

5 december 2011

9

Total probability of failure

Probabilities of events result from fault tree analysis

Fault tree 1

Fault tree 2

Fault tree 3

Fault tree



Fault tree n

Event tree

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Topics in QRA


Component and system reliability


Common Cause Failure


External Causes of Failure


Lightning


Fire


Internal flooding


Etc.


Human reliability


Software reliability


Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Phase 1: Maintenance Planning


Maintenance plan should include/respect all assumptions made in the
QRA’s.


Including:


Maintenance strategies (CM, PM, CM)


Inspection strategies/intervals


Testing strategies/intervals


Recovery and test procedures


Repair times


Stock policy


Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Phase 2: Performing Maintenance


In the DO phase modifications are implemented and regular
maintenance is performed according to the maintenance plans. These
activities consist of the execution of tests, inspections, revisions, repairs,
replacements and the system modifications, as planned in the previous
phase.

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Phase 3: Monitoring Process


In the CHECK phase the overall system, components, maintenance en
organizational performance of the system is monitored. Monitoring focuses on:


All failures, errors, disruptions and observations in process or system


All differences with respect to the assumptions in the risk analysis (repair
times, inspection intervals, test intervals)


Effectiveness of all tests and inspections


Gathering information from tests and inspections for trend analysis of
failure frequencies


Observations on human errors during maintenance and operations.


Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Phase 4: Analyzing and Adjusting Risk Analyses


In the ACT phase the probability of failure of the system is calculated with the
new input from the check phase and is assured that the system still complies
with the probability target.



The final result, i.e. failure probability of the system, is compared with the target
and if the target is met no additional design measures are necessary. But if the
outcome does not comply with the target, the system has to be modified. Next to
changing the hardware physically, also measures like reducing repair times,
shortening test intervals or improve skills can be taken. These modifications will
have to be evaluated again, until the probability target is met. This process
constitutes a small loop within the ACT phase.

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Organization of the LPAM Process


Important aspects:


Implementation of LPAM is usually carried out by a project team


After implementation the maintenance organisation becomes
responsible for the quality and effectiveness of LPAM


It is a mistakte to think that the organisation is in control after the
initial phase


Sufficient resources should be available


Support from management is key to success


Training and education programs should be available and
implemented


Other important issues in this phase are the role of (sub
-
)contractors,
training of operation and training of maintenance activities and the
interpretation of feedback from the maintenance activities the risk
analyses.



Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Documentation


Results, conclusions and recommendations traced back to the design,
operation and assumptions used in the analysis.


The documentation needs to include details of the design and
operation of the system and details of the analysis that form the
basis for the models used in LPAM.


The justification for the data used for initiating event frequencies,
component failure probabilities, common cause failure probabilities,
human error probabilities, etc. should be provided. All numerical
values should be traceable, back to the source data or models.

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

LPAM with respect to networks

Application LPAM on infrastructural networks



Complexity



Criticality



Costs

Level of detail

of analyses

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Living Probabilistic Asset
Management

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5 december 2011

Questions?