of Broadband Mobility

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Dec 12, 2013 (4 years and 19 days ago)

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The Future

of Broadband Mobility

PTC’09

Tuesday Plenary


January 20, 2009

Honolulu, HI


Ken Zita

Network Dynamics Associates


Arrival of the mobile Internet


The Promised Land is at hand


LTE field tests achieving “ultrabroadband” speeds of
160
-
250MB/s down, 50 MB/s up


Commercial shipments begin 2H09


What is the route to mass market adoption?


How will a “mobile Internet” be different?


For the consumer experience?


For service definition?


For the competitive landscape?

The arrival of very high speed and all
-
IP mobile
networks is immanent. So
-
called 4G will transform
markets and the mobile services paradigm
worldwide.

1. What is the impact of broadband on


mobile business strategy?



Switched (closed) => packet (open)


Shift to IP allows service creation of content
services independent of the access network


Gateways for media downloads vs. merely
transporters of bits


If future market success is tied to application
and content services, where will carriers
place their bets?

The mobile value proposition remains tied to legacy
“bandwidth economics” and is relatively untouched
by the economics of the Internet.

2. How will mobile business models


evolve with broadband?


Emerging financial models have many more
moving parts, and far less revenue certainty


Subscriptions => to ad
-
hoc revenue events


Voice, messaging => on demand content


Recurring revenue => commissions, advertising,


revenue shares


Per minute pricing => connectivity


Timing the transition of revenue composition


No “net neutrality” for mobile … today

On
-
demand video, peer to peer communications,
user
-
generated content, and application downloads
will displace basic access services such as voice for
new revenue growth.


3. Who will “own” what in the new


broadband mobile ecosystem?



Can mobile operators preserve their closed
ecosystems for content?


So far, incumbency has worked


(US) carriers control content, despite pledges to open


Apple and Nokia (and Google?) gambling on
integrated, vertical services


Operating systems resurgent


MVNO for the new world


mobile content without the networks


Who will build the next Apple store?

How will the network/device/content/brand/web
storefront armistice evolve as the mobile
experience is gradually pried open by IP?

4. Search



Today mobile search is a drag


Contextualize with geography


Find stuff things that can only been ‘seen’ virtually
through a computer network


Contextual with geography
and

local life


Social information that “announces” in cyberspace


How can a network (or device) anticipate my search?


“Network push” => human
-
centered “demand pull”


Geo
-
data and location tagging

Speed to the handset is exciting but mobile search
needs to evolve, too. What is required to create
“meaningful” mobile search and retain net
-
centric
customers on the move?


5. Operational challenges



Facing the on
-
net/off
-
net challenge


Technology


IMS


Mobile IPv6


What happens to Wimax?


Do carriers need to be software companies?


Video hits the local mobile network


250,000 U.S. cell sites with T
-
1 backhaul

Service delivery involves controlling content
through middleware or finding a way to stay
relevant as consumers download content from off
-
network sites.

6. Can Asian mobile SPs globalize?



Big differences between U.S. and Japan
mobile content strategies


Mobile Internet is a platform for delivering
lifestyle services and knowledge
uniquely
appropriate to the local market


Diversity vs. mass market


Does network scale have a natural (or
optimal) limit when value shifts to services
that involve local market knowledge and
customization?

North Asia is streets ahead of the rest of the world
in terms of mobile broadband adoption. But past
attempts by Japanese and Korean operators to go
global have failed. Why?



What does it mean, really, to
create a “mobile Internet”?



See: www.telecomwithvision.com