beepedblacksmithUrban and Civil

Nov 29, 2013 (4 years and 7 months ago)


Setting the

World Stage

Three competing ideologies




Democracy alone remains the predominant
ideology; then…

why do extremism, uncertainty,

and violence still flourish?!

The Twentieth Century


Transnational Issues


North vs. South

Global War on Terror (GWOT)

Religious and Ethnic Factors

Religious Conflicts

Ethnic Conflicts


“The Post Cold War period ended on 11 September. The
next decade or so may well be defined by ‘the struggle
over globalization.’ Values and concepts long
championed by the United States and the West… are
being carried forward on the tide of globalization:
money, people, information, technology, ideas, goods
and services moving around the globe at higher speeds
and with fewer restrictions.”

Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, USN,
Former Director, Defense Intelligence Agency

line: Globalization
is a widening, deepening and speeding up of
interconnectedness in all aspects of contemporary social life from the
cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.



“[The] integration of markets, nation
states, and
technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and
states to reach around the world farther, faster,
deeper…than ever before…”

“The compression of the world and the intensification
of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete
global interdependence...”

Dimensions of Globalization





Each can be analyzed separately,
but they often have powerful


New Threat Paradigm

Traditional state
oriented model necessary but not

International boundaries less restrictive

Networks transcending international borders pose
great threats to our national interests, security, and

Many view all globalization as Pro
United States

Fear the dominance of Western ideas, culture, institutions,
and power

“Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws”

Blame United States for their problems

easy way to
divert attention


Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism


Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their traditions
and way of life.

Our adversaries believe they must derail the
new emerging world order or be taken over by

View United States as leader in shaping this

Can’t match our political, economic, military, and
cultural power

Resort to asymmetric approaches

Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (e.g., Western
Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)


The Cold War/East
West conflict is gone,
replaced by a “North
South Estrangement”

Economic rift between the “Haves” (North)
and the “Have
” (South) widens


1.4 billion live on less than $1.25 a day

1.75 billion acutely deprived in health, education,
and/or standard of living

North vs. South


Afghanistan’s GNI/capita is 1,419 compared to the
US rate of 47,094

33 times greater!

884 million lack access to safe water and 3.6
million die each year from water
related diseases

2.5 billion lack access to improved sanitation,
including 1.2 billion who have no facilities at all

North vs. South


From 1990 to 2009, global child mortality dropped
by 30%

However, in 2009, over 8 million children died
before age 5

80 percent in Sub
Saharan Africa and South Asia

North vs. South


Child born in Zimbabwe today has the
approximate life expectancy (47 years) of someone
born in United States in 1900

World average for education is 7.4 years

12.4 years in United States

4.5 years Sub
Saharan Africa

North vs. South

These horrors

particularly in poverty

to hopelessness, which
extremism; and
often, extremism leads to terrorism.

Global War on Terror

“Those who study jihad will understand why Islam wants
to conquer the whole world. All the countries conquered
by Islam or to be conquered in the future will be marked
for everlasting salvation. Islam says:

Kill all the
unbelievers just as they would kill you all!”


Khomeini, 1942

Militant extremism isn’t new…

“[The defense of the homeland] … is a means of
establishing the Divine authority within it so that it
becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam,
which is then to be carried

throughout the earth to the
whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all
humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.”


, 1955

The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that
espouse the use of violence to achieve their ideological aims;
al Qaeda being the greatest threat to the US homeland today.
Characteristics are:

No state, no uniform, lives among the population

Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend

Even support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to about
13 million “enemies”

While we view his beliefs as dangerously misguided….

He is absolutely committed to his cause

His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits

He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict


Who is the Enemy?

How has the enemy become so dangerous?

Global War on Terror

Increasing ambitions coupled with increasing capabilities give extremists an
unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications.



News Media

Satellite T.V.

Cell Phones

Ability to transmit



Suicide Bombers




Mass effects capture
media attention


War in Iraq / Afghanistan

Belief USA is fighting a

war against Islam

Palestine, Israel


Populace that listens and
supports their

Al Qaeda exemplifies the current
manifestation of violent extremists


identified “three foundations” of
Al Qaeda’s political ideology:

based authority to govern

Liberation of the homelands

Liberation of the human being

Global War on Terror

So how does this fit into Al Qaeda’s objectives??

Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the
Arabian Peninsula

Objective 2: Remove secular governments within region

Objective 3: Eliminate Israel, and purge Jewish and Christian

Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical

Al Qaeda’s Plan

“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to
rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad
for the sake of God.”

~ Osama
bin Laden

“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the
Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe, Africa
and Asia.”

Rumsfeld, 2005)

Objective 1: Expel America and

Establish an Islamic Authority in Iraq


America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity
to provide security:

Insurgents step up attacks against the government
and make religious claims for regime change.

Extremists overthrow the democratic government,
replacing it with a Taliban
like regime.

UN issues a resolution, but does not commit to
action…US doesn’t re
engage in Iraq.

Attacks against the

West Continue

Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in
Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror…

“The whole world is watching
this war and the two
adversaries… [Iraq] has a very
rare opportunity to come out
of the subservience and
enslavement to the West...”


bin Laden (2004)

Objective 2: Remove Secular Governments,
Replace with Islamic Theocracies

Extremists export their message and terrorist
acts throughout the Middle East.

Violence and extremist ideology undermine
moderate governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt.

Moderate governments collapse, replaced by
like regimes.

Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate.

Would Israel

join the conflict?

Would the U.S.

enter the conflict?

Attacks against the

West continue

The revived Caliphate
now turns its attention
to the destruction of

Objective 3: Destruction of Israel

Attacks against Israel intensify.

United Nations issues resolution to stand down.

Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world…

Caliphate attacks Israel

At what point does

the U.S. return

to Middle East?


Attacks against

the West continue

Extremists now poised to re
establish the historical

Might nuclear

weapons be


Objective 4: Re
Establish the

Historical Caliphate

The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the
remaining Islamic states to join the restoration.

Remaining Islamic states collapse from within.

In 900 C.E., the
included most of
present day Spain
and portions of
France and Italy.
By 1500 C.E., the
expanse of the
included most of
Africa, the Middle
East, much of SW
Asia, and SE

Our enemy knows the United States cannot be defeated
militarily, but consider:

The world’s most dangerous people potentially have some of the
world’s most dangerous weapons

nuclear, chemical, or biological

and every inclination to employ them

Terror attacks can weaken global economy

Continued casualties may weaken national resolve and even affect our

Our traditional allies prefer accommodation

A “clash of civilizations” or …

Force our economy into a recession? Depression?

Create political pressure for isolationism?

Deter us from necessary action?

Force us to reach accommodation… Peace in our time?

Global War on Terror

Global War on Terror

What are the enemy’s vulnerabilities?

Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic extremism
groups like Al Qaeda profess

Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural and
religious differences

Repressive Taliban
like regimes unappealing to most

No military capability to expand their fight beyond terrorist

Radical Islamic groups have shown themselves to be enemies of the West,

of the
very people they claim to support

Iraq, Islam, and humanity.

Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage

Millions of people repressed and isolated from growth
and prosperity

Extremists with resources to continue attacks

Countries isolated from a global trading economy

Other religious beliefs repressed

American security and national interests jeopardized

Implications of failure in this war are high:

If the insurgency overthrows the Iraqi government,
US global leadership is damaged, emboldening our
enemy, who then have a resource rich safe haven

Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger
conflict later

at enormous costs!

Global War on Terror

Religion can be a powerful force in warfare by
reinforcing ethnicity in making a conflict more
intractable and cruel

Not usually the only reason for conflict, but
frequently plays a pivotal role (i.e.,

Share fundamental beliefs/practices

Difference originally political, involving who
should lead after Muhammad’s death

Religious Conflicts

“The problem to be faced is how to combine loyalty to one’s own tradition with
reverence for different traditions.”

Abraham Joshua

Despite religious conflicts, many similarities
exist between Christianity, Judaism, and

Are monotheistic (believe in one god)

Descendents of Abraham

Accept concept of sin, the value of prayer, and
necessity of repentance

Find meaning in life through deep, personal
relationship with God

Religious Conflicts

Religion may be the vehicle for the expression of deeply and widely held
social aspirations.

How has religion become the crucible for violence?

Belief of belonging to a chosen people

Belief in aggressive

Religion as symbolic structure of conflict

Religion can become the invoked ideology or “social
cleavage along which other struggles become

Example: Sunni

conflict in Iraq

Political struggle or

Religious Conflicts

Ethnic groups usually united by common cultural,
behavioral, or religious practices

Ethnicity can be a powerful unifier…or a source of
great conflict:

Christian Armenians in Turkey

Stalin’s purges and forced famine


Khmer Rouge

Rwandan genocide



Ethnic Conflicts


differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create an ethnically
homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain
group of people).


Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable”
population from a given territory due to religion,
ethnicity, political, strategic or ideological factors

Genocide: Deliberate and systematic destruction of
a group of people because of their ethnicity,
nationality, religion, or race

Ethnic Conflicts

According to the UN Commission of Experts, “ethnic
cleansing” covers a host of criminal offenses,

Use of human shields

Mass murder

Mistreatment of civilian prisoners

Destruction of cultural property

Individuals enabling “ethnic cleansing” face criminal
prosecution for crimes against humanity, etc.

Ethnic Conflicts


Transnational Issues


North vs. South

Global War on Terror (GWOT)

Religious and Ethnic Factors

Religious Conflicts

Ethnic Conflicts