10-Setting_the_World_Stage_11x

beepedblacksmithUrban and Civil

Nov 29, 2013 (4 years and 1 month ago)

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Setting the

World Stage


Three competing ideologies


Communism


Fascism


Democracy


Democracy alone remains the predominant
ideology; then…





why do extremism, uncertainty,




and violence still flourish?!


The Twentieth Century

Overview


Transnational Issues


Globalization


North vs. South


Global War on Terror (GWOT)


Religious and Ethnic Factors


Religious Conflicts


Ethnic Conflicts


Globalization

“The Post Cold War period ended on 11 September. The
next decade or so may well be defined by ‘the struggle
over globalization.’ Values and concepts long
championed by the United States and the West… are
being carried forward on the tide of globalization:
money, people, information, technology, ideas, goods
and services moving around the globe at higher speeds
and with fewer restrictions.”






Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, USN,
Former Director, Defense Intelligence Agency


Bottom
line: Globalization
is a widening, deepening and speeding up of
interconnectedness in all aspects of contemporary social life from the
cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.

Globalization

Definitions:


“[The] integration of markets, nation
-
states, and
technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and
nation
-
states to reach around the world farther, faster,
deeper…than ever before…”


“The compression of the world and the intensification
of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete
global interdependence...”


Dimensions of Globalization


Economic


Environmental


Cultural


Political

Each can be analyzed separately,
but they often have powerful
interconnections


Globalization


New Threat Paradigm


Traditional state
-
oriented model necessary but not
sufficient


International boundaries less restrictive


Networks transcending international borders pose
great threats to our national interests, security, and
homeland



Many view all globalization as Pro
-
United States


Fear the dominance of Western ideas, culture, institutions,
and power


“Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws”


Blame United States for their problems

easy way to
divert attention


“Have
-
nots”


Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism

Globalization

Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their traditions
and way of life.


Our adversaries believe they must derail the
new emerging world order or be taken over by
it


View United States as leader in shaping this


Can’t match our political, economic, military, and
cultural power


Resort to asymmetric approaches


Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (e.g., Western
Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)


Globalization


The Cold War/East
-
West conflict is gone,
replaced by a “North
-
South Estrangement”


Economic rift between the “Haves” (North)
and the “Have
-
Nots
” (South) widens


Consider:


1.4 billion live on less than $1.25 a day


1.75 billion acutely deprived in health, education,
and/or standard of living

North vs. South


Consider:


Afghanistan’s GNI/capita is 1,419 compared to the
US rate of 47,094

33 times greater!


884 million lack access to safe water and 3.6
million die each year from water
-
related diseases


2.5 billion lack access to improved sanitation,
including 1.2 billion who have no facilities at all



North vs. South


Consider:


From 1990 to 2009, global child mortality dropped
by 30%


However, in 2009, over 8 million children died
before age 5


80 percent in Sub
-
Saharan Africa and South Asia


North vs. South


Consider:


Child born in Zimbabwe today has the
approximate life expectancy (47 years) of someone
born in United States in 1900


World average for education is 7.4 years


12.4 years in United States


4.5 years Sub
-
Saharan Africa


North vs. South

These horrors

particularly in poverty

lead
to hopelessness, which
fuels
extremism; and
often, extremism leads to terrorism.

Global War on Terror

“Those who study jihad will understand why Islam wants
to conquer the whole world. All the countries conquered
by Islam or to be conquered in the future will be marked
for everlasting salvation. Islam says:

Kill all the
unbelievers just as they would kill you all!”










~
Ayatollah
Ruhollah

Khomeini, 1942

Militant extremism isn’t new…

“[The defense of the homeland] … is a means of
establishing the Divine authority within it so that it
becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam,
which is then to be carried

throughout the earth to the
whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all
humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.”




~
Sayyid

Qutb
, 1955


The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that
espouse the use of violence to achieve their ideological aims;
al Qaeda being the greatest threat to the US homeland today.
Characteristics are:


No state, no uniform, lives among the population


Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend
Islam


Even support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to about
13 million “enemies”


While we view his beliefs as dangerously misguided….


He is absolutely committed to his cause


His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits


He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict

GWOT


Who is the Enemy?

How has the enemy become so dangerous?

Global War on Terror

Increasing ambitions coupled with increasing capabilities give extremists an
unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications.

Information
Technology



Internet



News Media



Satellite T.V.



Cell Phones

Ability to transmit
message

Weapons
Proliferation



IEDs



Suicide Bombers



Missiles



Nuclear



Chemical/Biological

Mass effects capture
media attention


Perceived
Grievances



War in Iraq / Afghanistan



Belief USA is fighting a


war against Islam



Palestine, Israel



Detainee
Abuse

Populace that listens and
supports their
message


Al Qaeda exemplifies the current
manifestation of violent extremists


Al
Zawahiri

identified “three foundations” of
Al Qaeda’s political ideology:


Quran
-
based authority to govern


Liberation of the homelands


Liberation of the human being

Global War on Terror

So how does this fit into Al Qaeda’s objectives??


Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the
Arabian Peninsula


Objective 2: Remove secular governments within region


Objective 3: Eliminate Israel, and purge Jewish and Christian
influence


Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical
significance

Al Qaeda’s Plan

“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to
rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad
for the sake of God.”

~ Osama
bin Laden

“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the
Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe, Africa
and Asia.”
(
SecDef

Rumsfeld, 2005)

Objective 1: Expel America and

Establish an Islamic Authority in Iraq

IF

America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity
to provide security:


Insurgents step up attacks against the government
and make religious claims for regime change.


Extremists overthrow the democratic government,
replacing it with a Taliban
-
like regime.


UN issues a resolution, but does not commit to
action…US doesn’t re
-
engage in Iraq.

Attacks against the

West Continue

Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in
Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror…

“The whole world is watching
this war and the two
adversaries… [Iraq] has a very
rare opportunity to come out
of the subservience and
enslavement to the West...”



Osama

bin Laden (2004)


Objective 2: Remove Secular Governments,
Replace with Islamic Theocracies


Extremists export their message and terrorist
acts throughout the Middle East.


Violence and extremist ideology undermine
moderate governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt.


Moderate governments collapse, replaced by
Taliban
-
like regimes.


Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate.

Would Israel

join the conflict?

Would the U.S.

re
-
enter the conflict?

Attacks against the

West continue

The revived Caliphate
now turns its attention
to the destruction of
Israel…

Objective 3: Destruction of Israel


Attacks against Israel intensify.


United Nations issues resolution to stand down.


Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world…


Caliphate attacks Israel

At what point does

the U.S. return

to Middle East?

Allies?

Attacks against


the West continue

Extremists now poised to re
-
establish the historical
Caliphate

Might nuclear

weapons be

employed?

Objective 4: Re
-
Establish the

Historical Caliphate



The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the
remaining Islamic states to join the restoration.


Remaining Islamic states collapse from within.

In 900 C.E., the
Caliphate
included most of
present day Spain
and portions of
France and Italy.
By 1500 C.E., the
expanse of the
Caliphate
included most of
Africa, the Middle
East, much of SW
Asia, and SE
Europe.


Our enemy knows the United States cannot be defeated
militarily, but consider:


The world’s most dangerous people potentially have some of the
world’s most dangerous weapons

nuclear, chemical, or biological
weapons

and every inclination to employ them


Terror attacks can weaken global economy


Continued casualties may weaken national resolve and even affect our
elections


Our traditional allies prefer accommodation


A “clash of civilizations” or …



Force our economy into a recession? Depression?



Create political pressure for isolationism?



Deter us from necessary action?



Force us to reach accommodation… Peace in our time?


Global War on Terror

Global War on Terror


What are the enemy’s vulnerabilities?


Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic extremism
groups like Al Qaeda profess


Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural and
religious differences


Repressive Taliban
-
like regimes unappealing to most
Muslims


No military capability to expand their fight beyond terrorist
tactics

Radical Islamic groups have shown themselves to be enemies of the West,
and

of the
very people they claim to support

Iraq, Islam, and humanity.



Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage


Millions of people repressed and isolated from growth
and prosperity



Extremists with resources to continue attacks



Countries isolated from a global trading economy



Other religious beliefs repressed



American security and national interests jeopardized


Implications of failure in this war are high:


If the insurgency overthrows the Iraqi government,
US global leadership is damaged, emboldening our
enemy, who then have a resource rich safe haven


Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger
conflict later

at enormous costs!


Global War on Terror


Religion can be a powerful force in warfare by
reinforcing ethnicity in making a conflict more
intractable and cruel


Not usually the only reason for conflict, but
frequently plays a pivotal role (i.e.,
Shia
-
Sunni
conflict)


Share fundamental beliefs/practices


Difference originally political, involving who
should lead after Muhammad’s death


Religious Conflicts

“The problem to be faced is how to combine loyalty to one’s own tradition with
reverence for different traditions.”


Abraham Joshua
Heschel


Despite religious conflicts, many similarities
exist between Christianity, Judaism, and
Islam…


Are monotheistic (believe in one god)


Descendents of Abraham


Accept concept of sin, the value of prayer, and
necessity of repentance


Find meaning in life through deep, personal
relationship with God

Religious Conflicts

Religion may be the vehicle for the expression of deeply and widely held
social aspirations.

How has religion become the crucible for violence?


Belief of belonging to a chosen people


Belief in aggressive
missionarism


Religion as symbolic structure of conflict


Religion can become the invoked ideology or “social
cleavage along which other struggles become
mapped”


Example: Sunni
-
Shia

conflict in Iraq

Political struggle or
spiritual??

Religious Conflicts


Ethnic groups usually united by common cultural,
behavioral, or religious practices


Ethnicity can be a powerful unifier…or a source of
great conflict:



Christian Armenians in Turkey



Stalin’s purges and forced famine



Holocaust



Khmer Rouge



Rwandan genocide



Bosnia
-
Herzegovina



Sudan


Ethnic Conflicts

Intent

differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create an ethnically
homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain
group of people).


Definitions:


Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable”
population from a given territory due to religion,
ethnicity, political, strategic or ideological factors


Genocide: Deliberate and systematic destruction of
a group of people because of their ethnicity,
nationality, religion, or race

Ethnic Conflicts


According to the UN Commission of Experts, “ethnic
cleansing” covers a host of criminal offenses,
including:


Use of human shields


Mass murder


Mistreatment of civilian prisoners


Destruction of cultural property


Individuals enabling “ethnic cleansing” face criminal
prosecution for crimes against humanity, etc.

Ethnic Conflicts

Summary


Transnational Issues


Globalization


North vs. South


Global War on Terror (GWOT)


Religious and Ethnic Factors


Religious Conflicts


Ethnic Conflicts


Questions?