2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

Arya MirMobile - Wireless

Jan 9, 2012 (5 years and 9 months ago)

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Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits

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1


2012 Mobile Industry

Predictions Survey

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.

© Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012

http://www.chetansharma.com


2


2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy,
healthy, and prosperous 2012. My thanks to all who participated in our 2012 Mobile Predictions
Annual Survey. It gives our community an insider’s view of trends.

2011 was a terrific year for the mobile industry. With all its ups and down, consumers embraced
devices, applications, services, and technology with more gusto than ever before. In the waning
hours of 2011, we crossed the
6 billion subscriptions
milestone. While the first billion took 19
years, this last billion only took 15 months.

Smartphones are selling like hot cakes. We estimate that by the end of Q4 2011, over 60% of the
devices sold in the US were smartphones and over 30% of the global sales were for the evolved
brethren of the primordial featurephones. Sparked by insatiable consumer demand for mobile
data, LTE and HSPA+ networks are sprouting all over the planet with US leading the charge for
broadband deployment.

Our annual survey is a way for us to engage our community on the trends for the next year. We
put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders. We are able to glean
some valuable insights from their choices and comments, some tangible shifts, and get a sense of
what’s to come. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and
startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012
might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the
collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution.


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3


Fifteen names were randomly drawn for the limited edition of the Mobile Future Forward 2011 book. The winners are
:



Tor Bjorn
Minde
, Head of Ericsson Labs, Ericsson


Sunder
Somasundaram
, Industry Solutions Practice Director, AT&T


C. Enrique Ortiz, Mobile Technologist, About Mobility


Russell Buckley, CMO, Eagle Eye


Marianne Marck, VP


Engineering, Starbucks


John Foster, President, ZED USA


Angel Luis
Saez
, Sr. Director, Orange Spain


Dilip
Mistry
, Senior Director, Microsoft Asia


Phyllis Reuther, Advanced Analytics Lab, Sprint


Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile, Isobar


Elizabeth Day, Director of Finance, Trilogy International


Alan Cole, Research Staff Member, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center


X J Wang, VP


GM China,
Vesta

Corp


Michelle Lee, Director, SK Telecom


Hemant
Chandak
, Sr. Analyst, Cisco
Systems


Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. It has been a terrific year for us at Ch
eta
n Sharma Consulting and we
are looking forward to an engaging and productive 2012
.


Be well, do good work, and stay in touch
.


Thanks and with warm wishes
,


Your feedback is always welcome
.


Thanks

Chetan


2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

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4


Participant Composition

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5


Biggest Mobile Story of 2011

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Privacy and Security debates
Regulatory Tussles
Mobile M&As and alliances
IP battles
Introduction of Kindle Fire
Others
Passing away of Steve Jobs
The rise and domination of Android
What was most newsworthy in Mobile 2011?

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6


Biggest stories of 2012

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Network overloading and collapse
Policy and Regulation
Operator and/or OEM M&A
Others
Facebook Mobile Platform
Apple Tablets and iPhone
Security and Privacy
Google and Android
4G deployment and marketing battles
Microsoft/Nokia resurgence
Amazon's entry into the mobile arena
Continued growth of mobile data around the world
What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2012?

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7


Most Open Mobile Player

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Nokia
Carriers
Other OEMs
Apple
Amazon
Facebook
Microsoft
Google
Who will be the most open player in the

mobile ecosystem in 2012?

2009
2010
2011
2012
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8


Apps and 4G

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Advertising
Telematics
Others
Health and Wellness
Music
Games
Access (just more bandwidth)
Cloud Computing
Video
What applications will define 4G?

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9


Apps/Services in 2012

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
What will be the breakthrough category

in mobile in 2012?

2011
2012
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10


Apps in 2012

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Location
Based
Services
Mobile
Health
Monitoring
NFC based
services
Mobile
Music
Messaging
Mobile
Advertising
Mobile
Augmented
Reality
Mobile
Payments
and
Commerce
Deals and
Coupons
What will be the most popular

consumer applications in 2012?

Developing
Developed
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11


Tablets: 2012
-
13

iOS

45%

Android

44%

Windows

8%

Others

3%

Which will be the most dominant (unit sales) tablet
platform in 2 years?

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12


M&As in 2012

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Others
Infrastructure Providers
Oracle
Apple
Facebook
Amazon
Operators
Google
Microsoft
Who will make the biggest mobile

acquistion in 2012?

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13


Apps vs. Web

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Apps will continue to
dominate
Mobile Web will start to
become more relevant
Both will live in peace
and harmony
Both are one and the
same
How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web"

debate shape up in 2012?

2011
2012
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14


Mobile Payment/Commerce in 2012

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Who will define the mobile

payment/commerce space?

2011
2012
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15


Solutions for mobile data growth

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Others
Spectrum
Backhaul upgrades
Policy management
Optimization
Mobile offload
Tiered pricing
4G
Which solutions will gain the most traction for
managing mobile data broadband consumption?

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16


Mobile Data Revenues in 2012

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
North America
Western
Europe
India/China
Japan/Korea
Rest of Asia
Africa
South America
Which category will generate the most mobile data
revenue in 2012?

Messaging
Access
Apps
Advertising
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17


Mobile Cloud Computing in 2012

5%

9%

19%

20%

20%

27%

What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction
in 2012?

Games
Processing
Apps
Media
Storage
Enterprise
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18


Mobile disruption in 2012

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Energy
Others
Education
Privacy
Sales
Field Force
Health
Retail
Which enterprise segment will mobile

impact the most?

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19


Mobile App Revenue Models in 2012

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Others
Virtual Goods
Subscriptions
Paid
Advertising
In-app
Combination
What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in
2012?

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20


Mobile Payments in 2012

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
No meaningful traction
Remittance
P2P
Selling of non-digital goods on mobile
Selling of physical goods on mobile
Proximity based
What mode of mobile payments will get traction

in NA and WE in 2012?

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21


Mobile Devices in 2012

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Others
Telematics
Camera
M2M
eReader
Tablet
What will be the most successful non
-
mobile
-
phone
category in 2012?

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22


What does the future hold?

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Another significant mobile OS emerges
Humans discover water on another planet
Mobile voting becomes available in major countries
Major retailers start to shut down due to competition
from e/m-tailers
Asian operator acquires a major European operator
Tablets become the leading Enterprise IT device
Which of the following are likely to happen in the near
future?

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23


Regulatory To
-
Do List in 2012

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
None of the above
Subsidy
Network management
Pricing
Exclusivity
Competitiveness
Net Neutrality
Which areas will feel the most impact of

Regulators in 2012?

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24


Mobile Person of the Year

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Glenn Lurie
Dan Hesse
Sanjiv Ahuja
Paul Jacobs
Others
Tim Cook
Mark Zuckerberg
Andy Rubin
Angry Birds
Jeff Bezos
Steve Jobs
Who was the mobile person of the year?

Save The Date

Sept, 2012

Seattle


Ever wondered what the future of mobile looks like?


Contact
info@mobilefutureforward.com

for
sponsorship and speaking opportunities


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26


We look forward to hearing from you

Chetan Sharma

chetan@chetansharma.com

TW: @
chetansharma

http://www.chetansharma.com



Mobile Future Forward

info@mobilefutureforward.com


TW: @
mfutureforward

http://www.mobilefutureforward.com



Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.