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Dec 6, 2012 (4 years and 10 months ago)

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FD |

December 2010

Allstate/
National Journal

Heartland Monitor Poll

Methodology


This is the seventh quarterly installment of
Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls
conducted by Ed Reilly and Brent McGoldrick of
FD



The survey fielded between November 30


December 1, 2010 among:


A nationally representative telephone sample of 1200
adults, aged 18 and older. Margin of error +/
-

2.8%

2

The Mood of the Country & The Political
Environment

For consumers, it feels like 1975 and 1992.

37.4

25.3

26.9

40.8

54.8

49.3

47.4

54.5

53.4

48.7

50.6

53.6

56.5

46.4

52.3

57.7

62.7

54.3

51

53.5

48.6

49.9

54.1

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CCI Index 09-10
Source: The Conference Board


Consumer Research Center CCI Figures

Historical
Points

Winter

1975

Spring

1992

4

Americans are more pessimistic about their financial prospects
for 2011 than they were heading into 2010.

5

Improve / Worse

Jan
-
10

Dec
-
10

White

31/22

22/28

Hispanic

47/14

41/25

African American

56/11

58/9

January 2010

December 2010

37%

41%

20%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Improve
Stay the same
Become worse
30%

42%

25%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Improve
Stay the same
Become worse
Thinking ahead to 2011, do you expect that your personal financial situation will…


A solid majority of Americans continues to believe
the country is headed down the “Wrong Track.”

And, to start with, do you feel that THE COUNTRY, in general, is headed in the right direction, or do you think
things are seriously off on the wrong track? (APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/
-
4%) (JULY 09: N=1202,
Margin of Error =+/
-
2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200,
Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)
(August 10: N=1200, Margin of
Error = +/
-
2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)


Right Dir. / Wrong Track

Republicans

11/84

Independents

26/64

Democrats

49/37

47%

38%

38%

34%

34%

27%

30%

42%

50%

50%

55%

54%

62%

60%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Right Direction

Wrong Track

6

When it comes to their rating of President Obama’s job
performance, Americans are evenly split.

And, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Do you
approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/
-
4%) (JULY 09:N=1202,
Margin of Error =+/
-
2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200,
Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)
(August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error
= +/
-
2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)

61%

56%

52%

47%

48%

46%

48%

28%

36%

40%

45%

46%

49%

46%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Approve

Disapprove

Approval /

Disapproval

Apr
-
09

Dec
-
10

Republicans

26/60

7/88

Independents

61/29

45/47

Democrats

89/6

85/11

7


In general, do you think that the actions being taken by the Obama Administration will… (JULY 09:
N=1202, Margin of Error =+/
-
2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (JANUARY
10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)
(August 10:
N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)

Increase / Decrease by Race

White

25/42

Hispanic

38/25

African American

67/7

Most Americans do not believe President Obama’s policies
have created more opportunity for them, individually.

Increase Opportunity for
People Like Me to Get
Ahead

Decrease Opportunity for
People Like Me to Get
Ahead

Have No Impact

40%

39%

37%

34%

32%

32%

30%

30%

34%

36%

38%

35%

23%

25%

25%

25%

26%

27%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
July 2009
September
2009
January
2010
April 2010
August 2010
December
2010
8

President Obama remains slightly more trusted on the
economy than Republicans.

And, in general, who do you trust more to develop solutions to the country’s economic challenges…

APRIL
09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/
-
4%) (JULY 09:N=1202, Margin of Error =+/
-
2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09:
N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200,
Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)
(August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of
Error = +/
-
2.8%)

55%

46%

48%

41%

39%

42%

42%

26%

28%

27%

33%

32%

37%

36%

12%

17%

16%

19%

19%

14%

15%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
President Obama

Republicans in Congress

Neither

Trust

Apr
-
09

Dec
-
10

Republicans

15/63/18

3/82/10

Independents

50/23/16

35/28/27

Democrats

87/7/15

82/8/5

9


Thinking back over the policies that President Obama has pursued during his Presidency, would you
say that the country is… (JANUARY
10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200,
Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)
(August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%) (December 10: N=1200,
Margin of Error = +/
-
2.8%)

Better / Right Direction / Worse

Republicans

3/18/75

Independents

10/45/36

Democrats

27/64/6

Few think Obama’s policies have made the country better
off, but many Americans maintain a positive outlook.

Significantly Better Off


Moving in the Right
Direction


Significantly Worse Off

13%

11%

11%

14%

31%

37%

41%

37%

52%

46%

44%

44%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
January 2010
April 2010
August 2010
December 2010
10

Americans are increasingly worried about
opportunities for the next generation.

And, thinking ahead to when today’s children are your age, do you think they will have…


11

July 2010

31%

29%

36%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
More opportunity
to get ahead
About the same
opportunity
Less opportunity
to get ahead
December 2010

25%

30%

39%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
More opportunity
to get ahead
About the same
opportunity
Less opportunity
to get ahead
More / Less

Jul
-
09

Dec
-
10

White

25/40

17/47

Hispanic

38/31

34/26

African American

57/16

55/11

America’s International Competitiveness

47%

20%

11%

6%

5%

2%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
China
U.S.
Japan
E.U.
India
Russia
By a wide margin, Americans say China is the world’s strongest economy
today. Looking ahead 20 years, they see U.S. & China at parity.

And which ONE of the following countries
or regions do you think has the strongest
economy in the world today?

Today’s Strongest Economy

37%

34%

6%

5%

5%

1%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
China
U.S.
Japan
E.U.
India
Russia
And, from that same list, which ONE do
you think will have the strongest economy
in the world 20 years from today?

Future Strongest Economy

13

21% of Americans think the US economy will be in 20 years, but isn’t today. This sentiment is more
prominent in those without a college degree and also those who are currently looking for work.

On key economic “ingredients”, Americans perceive the U.S. to be ahead of
most major economies, especially colleges & universities and science and
research.

43%

46%

50%

56%

57%

66%

74%

53%

43%

40%

39%

32%

28%

22%

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Elementary and secondary education
Cooperation between business and
government
Government policies to encourage
economic growth
Workforce
Leaders running corporations
Science and research
Colleges and universities
Total Ahead
Total Behind
Now I’d like to read you a list of several aspects of the U.S. economy and ask you to tell me where you think
the U.S. ranks, compared to the list of countries we just discussed. For each aspect I read, please tell me
whether you think the U.S. ranks…


25%

52%

38%

17%

10%


3%

-
10%

Margin

14

-
Younger generations are more likely to believe that the quality of Colleges and Universities (80%) as well
as Science and Research (79%) rank ahead of the other listed countries.


-
Respondents making $100,000 and above believe the quality of the U.S. business leaders ranks ahead of
other listed countries (70%) on a greater margin than the total population.

Drivers of Economic Growth & Manufacturing

Energy and Healthcare are seen as the biggest drivers of economic
growth, with manufacturing among the most important industries.

7%

11%

15%

16%

23%

26%

27%

32%

33%

36%

36%

42%

47%

15%

31%

33%

33%

40%

39%

40%

44%

47%

43%

48%

43%

45%

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Media and entertainment
Tourism and hospitality
General professional services like accounting,…
Retail
Construction and home-building
Financial services
Pharmaceuticals
Biotechnology
Manufacturing
Information technology
Agriculture
Healthcare
Energy
Extremely Important
Very Important
Now I’d like to read you a list of industries. After I read each one, please tell me how important you think this
industry is to creating economic growth in the U.S. over the next 5
-
10 years?

92%

65%

63%

49%

48%

42%

22%

79%

80%

76%

67%

85%

84%

16

While Americans are split on the current state of the
manufacturing industry, there is clear hope for future growth.

When it comes to creating the manufacturing
industries of the 21
st

century, compared to
countries such as The European Union,
Russia, China, Japan and India, is the U.S…


49%

47%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Ahead
Total Behind
Manufacturing Industry 21
st

Century

Total Ahead / Total Behind

18
-
29

65/33

69%

29%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Optimistic
Total Pessimistic
Overall, are you optimistic or pessimistic that
the U.S. can successfully grow its
manufacturing industry to remain the
international leader in manufacturing?

Grow Manufacturing

Total Optimistic /

Total Pessimistic

Black

79/20

Hispanic

80/17

Non
-
College

72/26

<$30,000

76/22

Democrats

80/17

17

62%

51%

34%

34%

45%

61%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
[ADVANCED MANUFACTURING]
Government should help advanced
manufacturing industries with tax incentives,
funding for scientific research and training
for workers, even if it means increasing
federal spending and more government
involvement
[SUBSIDIZE BASIC MANUFACTURING]
Government should subsidize the
manufacturing industry even if it has to place
tariffs and taxes on foreign products that will
increase prices
[SERVICE ECONOMY]

The U.S. economy has become less
focused on manufacturing and more focused
on service sector jobs and therefore we
should let this trend continue because it
doesn’t require any additional government
spending or involvement

Total Agree
Total Disagree
Americans are most willing to trade more government
involvement for a competitive advanced manufacturing sector.

I’d now like to read you a few statements that some people have made about American manufacturing. After I
read each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree with this statement.

18

Traditional partisan attitudes about trade do not necessarily apply. Many Republicans support government
action to support manufacturing and they do not favor a “hands off” approach.

Globalization & International Trade

58%

12%

12%

10%

6%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Shifted Jobs
Overseas for
Cheaper Labor
New Technology
Creates More
Service and Less
Manual Jobs
U.S. Governmental
Regulations
Consumers Want
Cheapest Goods
Education and
Training for
Manufacturing
Jobs Has Fallen
Behind
Outsourcing is the prime suspect in the loss of American
manufacturing jobs.

As you may know, according to the United Nations Statistical Division, the U.S. still leads the world in manufacturing, gener
ati
ng just
over $1.8 trillion in economic output.



However, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the share of Americans who work in service
-
related jobs has been grow
ing
for decades and is now five times greater than those who work in manufacturing
-
related jobs.



At the same time, the percentage of American workers employed in the manufacturing sector has decreased significantly over th
e p
ast
30 years.


Which ONE of the following do you think is the principal reason for this decline?


Shifted Jobs Overseas for Cheaper
Labor

Non
-
College

57%

College +

59%

Shifted Jobs Overseas for Cheaper
Labor

<$30,000

54%

$30,000
-
$50,000

64%

$50,000
-
$75,000

60%

$75,000
-
$100,000

57%

$100,000 +

60%

20

Shifted Jobs Overseas for Cheaper
Labor

Republicans

52%

Independents

55%

Democrats

65%

Frustration over the loss of these jobs is fueling Americans’ desire for cooperation on job creation.

Concern over job outsourcing is primarily concentrated among
those looking to enter the job market.

How much do you worry that your employer could decide to relocate your job overseas to someone else in
another country?




14%

35%

50%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Employed
Students
Looking for work
Concern Over Job Outsourcing

Percent Worried “A lot” or “Some”

21

Just 21% prefer the U.S. take an “open market” approach to the
international economy.

I would now like to read you three opinions on how government might handle American economic policy as it
relates to the global economy. Please tell me which one comes closest to your opinion…




36%

32%

23%

35%

38%

21%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
[PROTECTIONISM]
Pursue tariffs and other barriers,
penalize for outsourcing jobs, limit
immigration and overseas investment
[PLANNED ECONOMY]
Industry-based tax incentives, provide
funding for research, education, and
training
[FREE TRADE]
Free-trade agreements, legal
immigration, free flow of investment
U.S. Trade Policy

Aug-10
Dec-10
Support of “protectionism” continues to be more pronounced among Republicans with 42% supporting
policies that inhibit foreign trade and investment.

22

Views on globalization and the impact of an inter
-
connected world
economy are mixed.

Now I am going to read you two statements about international trade. After I read them, please tell me which statement
comes closer to your point of view?


Which comes closer to your view… the development of better paying jobs in other countries is…


If you had to choose would you prefer…


When it comes to LEGAL immigration of skilled workers in fields like science and technology, do you think that the U.S…



43%

52%

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Good for Economy
Bad for Economy
International Trade

42%

51%

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Opportunity
Threat
High
-

Income Jobs Abroad

55%

38%

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Increase Exports
Reduce Imports
Import / Export Policy

56%

40%

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Beneficial
Harmful
Effect of Legal Skilled
Immigrants

Pro Globalization

Anti Globalization

23

The 2011 Washington Agenda

Americans are split on who should take the lead on the major
issues facing the country.

45%

44%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
President Obama
Republicans in Congress
Who Should Take the Lead?

As you may know, Republicans won majority control of The House of Representatives in the November
elections. Moving forward, who would you like to see take the lead on the major issues facing the country?




Who Should

Lead

President Obama / Republicans in Congress

Republicans

5/91

Independents

42/41

Democrats

84/9

25

The new Congress is expected to compromise with the Administration
to get things done.

70%

25%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Compromise and work with President
Obama and Democrats to get things
done
Pursue their own agenda to get
things done, including repealing the
legislation and regulations enacted
by President Obama and Democrats
Preference for Republican Agenda

Would you prefer that Republicans in Congress…




Compromise / Own Agenda

Republicans

42/54

Independents

70/25

Democrats

94/4

26

Half of Americans prefer policies that deal directly with job
creation.

28%

22%

19%

13%

11%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Infrastructure,
research and
education to
encourage
job creation
New tax cuts
to encourage
more job
creation
Repeal and
amend health
care reform
legislation
Extend Bush
era tax cuts
for all (inc.
earners of >
$250k/year)
Cut federal
budget and
increase
taxes to
reduce deficit
Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Repeal

Healthcare
(36%)

Stimulus for
job creation

(27%)

Stimulus for
job creation

(45%)

New tax cuts
for job
creation

(21%)

New tax cuts
for job
creation

(23%)

New tax cuts
for job
creation

(22%)

Extend Bush
for everyone
(19%)

Repeal

Healthcare
(17%)

Reduce the
deficit


(13%)

Priorities that should be Addressed
by Elected Officials

And which do you think should be the top priority you would like to see addressed by your elected officials in
Washington, D.C.?




50%

27

January 2009