Business Case - Department for International Development

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Nov 26, 2013 (3 years and 10 months ago)

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Business Case


Zimbabwe Education Sector Support (2012
-

2015)



January
201
2


Contents


Acron
yms and Abbreviations








p.3


Intervention Summary









p.4


1. Strategic
Case










p.5

A. Context and need for
a
DFID intervention

B. Impact and Outcome that we expect to achieve


2. Appraisal Case










p.9

A. Feasible options that address the need set out in the Strategic case

Option 1


ETFII pooled fund

Option 2


Support Disadvantaged Girls to Complete Four Years of Secondary Education

Option 3


Investing in Teachers to address the low sills levels of unqualified teachers

Option 4


Do nothing in terms of Direct Education Support, but put more resources into Cash

Transfers and OVC School Fee payments

Option 5
-

Counterfactual

B. Assessing the strength of the evidence base for each feasible option

C: The costs and benefits of each feasible option

D:
What measures can be used to asses
Value for Money
for the inte
r
ven
tion?

E: Summary value for money statement for the preferred option


3. Commercial Case










p.3
5

A. Why the proposed funding mechanism is the right arrangement for this intervention

B. Value for money through procurement


4. Financial Case










p.36

A. Cost profile

B. How it will be funded

C. How funds will be paid out

D. Assessment of financial risk and fraud

E. How expenditure will be monitored, reported and accounted for


5. Management Case









p.38

A. Management arrangements

B. Risks and
how they will be managed

C. Conditions

D. How progress and results will be monitored, measured and evaluated


References











p.43


Annexes

Annex 1.
Logical Framework

Annex 2
.
E
conomic appraisal
background note

Annex 3
.
European Commission Political Economy Analysis of the Zimbabwean Education Sector




Acronyms and Abbreviations


AGA


Accountable Grant Arrangement

A
-
Level

Advanced Level

BCA


Benefit
-
Cost Analysis

BCR


Benefit
-
Cost Ratio

BEAM


Basic Education Assistance
Module

CAMFED

The Campaign for Female Education

CBA


Cost
-
Benefit Analysis

CPD


Continuing Professional Development

CPF


Child Protection Fund

DEO


District Education Offices

DFID


Department for International Development

ECD


Early Childhood Developm
ent

ETF


Education Transition Fund

ECG


Education Coordination Group

EU


European Union

EC


European Commission

EMIS


Education Management Information Systems

EMTP


Education Medium Term Plan

F1


Form 1

G7


Grade Seven

GBV


Gender Based Violence

GoZ


Government of Zimbabwe

HIV


Human Immunodeficiency Virus

AIDS


Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

ICT


Information Communication Technology

MDG


Millennium Development Goals

MoESAC

Ministry of Education, Sports, Art and Culture

MOHTE

Ministry of High
er and Tertiary Education

MoLSS

Ministry of Labour and Social Services

MoU


Memorandum of Understanding

M&E


Monitoring and Evaluation

NGO


Non
-
Governmental Organization

NER


Net Enrolment Ratio

NPV


Net Present Value

O
-
Level

Ordinary Level

OSISA


Open Society Initiative of Southern Africa

OVC


Orphans and Vulnerable Children

PTR


Pupil Teacher Ratio

P1, 2 & 3

Primary School cate
gorised as 1, 2, & 3

Q1


5


Quintiles 1


5

SAQMEQ

Southern
&

Eastern African
Consortium for Monitoring Education
Quality

S1, 2, & 3

Secondary
School categorised as 1, 2, & 3

S
B
M
C


School Based Management Committee

SCF


Save the Children Fund

SDC


School Development Committee

SRP


Structural Reform Priority

SSA


Sub
-
Sahara
n

Africa

TVET


Technical and Vocational Education Training

UNESCO

United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNICEF

United Nations Children’s Fund

VfM


Value for Money

WASH


Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

ZimSEC

Zimbabwe Schools Examinations Counci
l



Business Case and
Intervention Summary


Intervention Summary

Zimbabwe Education Sector Support (2012
-

2015)

What support will the UK provide?

The UK

will provide a total of £
36

million, over the four
-
year period

2012
-
2015.


Why is UK
support
required?

The capability of Zimbabwe’s school system has declined sharply

since 2000
. There are acute short
ages of
well
-
qualified teachers. T
he long
-
term commitment of many
remaining
teachers to their profession is fragile.

At least
1,500 schools
require

urgent

structural repairs
.
31% of schools have seven

or more pupils sharing a
single desk
.

Examination success at the end of primary school has nearly halved over three years and O
-
level results are very weak.

Rural schools

have suffered most. Orphans and

Vulnerable Children are most
likely to drop out early due to other pressures and the
fees and levies
now
charged.
And the increasing
numbers of girls who are failing to either access or complete four years of secondary schooling

is of growing
concern
.


This intervention
has

two components

designed to address these challenges
. The first will see DFID provide
£24 million (around 45% of the total funding) to the
second phase of the
multi
-
donor Education Transition
Fund
(ETF II).
This follows our support to

ETF Ph
ase I

which successfully addressed the almost complete
absence of stationery and textbooks in many schools and helped increase the planning capacity of the
Ministry of Education, Sport, Arts and Culture (MoESAC). ETF II, managed by UNICEF and workin
g closely
with MoESAC
, is much more ambitious

with targets relating to: school grants; qualit
y of teaching and
learning; and

out
-
of
-
school young people.



Secondly, DFID will provide
£
12m million

to halt the decline in participation by girls in secondary education.
This will mainly be delivered in the form of bursaries, but with some complementary input
s ensuring
community engagement. It will

be managed through an Accountable G
rant to
the
Campaign

for Female
Education

(
CAMFED
) an NGO that has been operating in
Zimba
bwe since 1993
.


The funding
is designed to
help
Zimbabwe
achieve

equitable primary education of good quality for all
its
children

and gender parity in the secondary cycle, with consequ
ent wide
-
ranging social and economic
benefits
.


What are the expected
results?

T
his

intervention will
strengthen the

scope and quality of educational services which will
in turn
enhance
student access, retention and achievement, with special attention being paid to the needs of vulnerable and
out
-
of
-
school young people.

Specifically, by 2015:



60,000 more children will be completing seven years of primary schooling of improved
quality;



40,000 more girls will complete four years of secondary schooling;



examination pass rates at Grade 7 and Form 4

will
i
ncrease by at least ten percentage points
;



10,000 under
-
qualified teachers will have had their skills upgraded and 40,000 teache
rs will be receiving
continuous professional development;



500,000
more orphans
&

vulnerable children

(50% female)

will be able to participate in schooling;



a reformed curriculum and strengthened assessment measures will lead to improved quality of learni
ng
experience;



100,000 young people
, (50% female)

who have dropped out will re
-
enter formal education or r
eceive
relevant skills training; and



t
he Gender Parity Index for both primary, and secondary to Form 4, will remain above 0.95 in 2015.



Some
of the d
ozen
donors to ETF I are redirecting resources to other sectors or phasing out their work in
Zimbabwe

altogether and

it
currently
looks like there will be around
six
fewer donors to ETF II. T
he UK
,

Germany

and the EU

are expected
to be the largest
contributors.

DFID

is
set to provide
around 45% of the
total fund
s so generating pro
-
rata attribution for outputs. ETF II

is

also
likely

to attract additional significant
resources from the Global Partnership for Education
.

CAMFED receives funding from oth
er government and
private sources, but DFID would be the sole funder for
CAMFED’s

results set out in this Business Case.


Routine monitoring of output and outcome indicators will be undertaken by programme managers

in UNICEF
and CAMFED
. Actual performance
will be compared with expected performance using the agreed indicators
and targets in the programme log frame. DFID staff will use monitoring data to improve implementation,
focusing particularly on taking steps to address any underperforming areas.



Business Case


Strategic Case


A.
Context and need for
a
DFID intervention


Context

There are two critical needs

which relate to the achievement of MDG
s
2 and 3.

First, t
he
fall

-

from a very
high level

-

in
participation and successful completion of the

se
ven grades of primary schooling

leaves
Zimbabwe’s achievement of the 2015 goal of universal primary completion

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In the 1980s and early 1990s Zimbabwe successfully moved
towards mass education
: u
niversal
participation in seven years of primary

education was re
ached by 1993; a
nd continent
-
high access to at


least four years of g
ood quality secondary schooling

generated almost universal literacy and exceptional
numbers of well
-
schooled secondary graduates.

However, the detailed picture is more co
mplex. The
policies of the post
-
Independence government
fostered
the survival of the small proportion of high quality
urban primary and secondary schools [categorised as P1/P2 and S1/S2]. These generated well
-
educated
elites who were employed in professio
nal positions in government and the private sector and bolstered
Zimbabwe's reputation for providing good quality education.
Meanwhile
the expansion of primary education
through the mainly rural P3 schools generated budget implications in the form of teach
ers’ salaries, which
were not sustainable from public resources.


In the context of the
1990s
structural adjustment programme,
virtually the entire
state education
budget
was absorbed by teachers


salaries
and
the large numbers of rural P3 and S3 schools
were not able to
provide basic supplies of

textbooks and other essentials
. Neither central government nor local authorities
were able to fill the gap and the burden of funding gradually fell more and more on contributions from
parents.


Fifteen or so year
s later, that situation has not changed.

By 2008

salary costs represented 95%
of public
expenditure
on education
. This
has left little money for buildings,
textbooks, teaching aids, supervision and
teacher training.

A complex system of fees, levies and ‘i
ncentives’ has evolved that has significantly
disadvantaged the poorest schools, communities and parents. In some urban schools, a teacher may
receive a monthly ‘incentive’, essentially paid for by parents, of as much as $150. The equivalent
‘incentive’ in

a rural primary school
ranges between zero and
$10 per month. In the economic melt
-
down of
2008, when the government component of teachers’ remuneration became meaningless, teachers went on
strike and many schools were closed for lengthy periods.
1



The e
xtent of
the
decline of the education system is

very evident
. As a first contextual factor

the data
presented in the table
s below

highlights the differential resources available to urban, elite primary schools
(P1) and the much larger numbers of rural scho
ols (P3). It includes

total income from all sources such as
fees, levies and per capita grants
. It shows a 1:18 funding differential between P3 and P1
primary
schools,
and a smaller but substantial differential of 1:9.5 between S3 and S1
secondary
schools.


Table 1:
Primary school income and expenditure per pupil (EMIS, 2009)


School type

Number of
schools

Average income per
pupil (US$)

Average expenditure
per pupil (US$)

All

4727


20.75


18.38

P1 urban /low density

193

177.74

166.27

P2 urban /high
density

445


24.95


21.99

P3 rural

4089


9.40


7.51


A similar picture emerges from the secondary school sector, with predictably larger overall figures.


Table 2: Secondary school income and expenditure per pupil (EMIS, 2009)


School type

Number

of
schools

Average income per
pupil (US$)

Average expenditure per
pupil (US$)

All

1581


92.71


87.87

S1 urban /low density

118

409.66

408.55

S2 urban /high density

187


82.41


72.20

S3 rural

1276


44.20


43.40


Almost no new infrastructure or
major maintenance has been carried out for over a decade. MoESAC
estimates that 1282 primary schools and 288 secondary schools are in need of urgent major r
epairs and
that
31% of schools have seven

or more pupils sharing a single desk space.
2


The
teachin
g profession in
Zimbabwe

has been
significantly
weakened
by factors including

teachers
leaving the profession,

HIV/AIDS



and migration (particularly to South Africa, where many of the best teachers of Science and Maths in
secondary schools are Zimbabwean).
The vacancy rate at
primary and secondary schools, as defined by
lack of qualified teachers,
is
close to 25%.
Gaps are
mostly filled by unqualified or under
-
qualified teachers
who may well lack basic knowledge and pedagogic
skills. And yet the pupil:
teache
r ratios

(PTR)

at both
primary and secondary remain very reas
onable by regional norms at 33:1 and 20:
1 respectively, the
secondary PTR being particularly
impressive
.


In terms of the impact of
these trends
on the efficiency and output of the system, it is

useful to look at drop
-
out figures and assessment data. The draft MoESAC Education Medium Term Plan (EMTP) 2011
-
2015
estimates the

primary completion rate at 67%

(based on an uncertain age cohort estimate). While this is
not a high drop
-
out rate by region
al standards, it is unprecedented for Zimbabwe, with girls and boys
appearing to be equally affected in the primary grades.



The overall transition rate from primary to secondary school is around 70% (EMIS, 2009).

A
round 190,000
secondary school age chil
dren
are
out of school in any one year.
3

Unsurprisingly, those students from the
poorest families fare worst. 2009 data suggests that there is a 30% difference in the primary


secondary
transition rates across the five quintiles (Q1

(lowest): 61%; Q2: 72%
; Q3: 85%; Q4: 87%; Q5: 91%).
Participation rates for secondary schools in 2009 for the lowest quintile (23%) are nearly three times lower
when compared to the
top quintile (60%). T
hose who are most likely to fall victim to these statistical trends
are th
ose children marginalised either directly by poverty or through the impact of HIV/AIDS


the so
-
called
O
rphans and Vulnerable Children (O
VCs
)
.


At the secondary level, the Net Enrolment Ratio (NER)

for 2009 was 44%.

G
irls
were
slightly over
-
represented in
Forms 1 and 2, but with significant and very worrying declines to Form 4, and abrupt drops
for Forms 5 and 6 (which are the A
-
level years with a very clear academic orientation, so that only about 1
in 10 of the cohort proceed to this level).
G
irls compris
e only 35% of the pupils in upper secondary and the
secondary school completion rate is higher for boys (UN MDG 2010 report). Many children dropped out of
school as a result of the economic crisis

in 2008
, with the percentage share being higher for girls
4
.

Participation of women in society in senior decision
-
making jobs in all sectors is still low, well below the
related MDG 3 target.



Chart 1:
Examination Results 2005
-
2009





Outcome data for public examinations at the end of Grade 7, Form 4 and Form 6 for the years 2005
-
2009
are presented graphically
above

gives an

idea of the quality of outputs.

Although there is some evidence of
recovery in O
-
level and A
-
level grades in 2009
, the collapse of Grade 7 results over two years from a
70.5% pass rate
in 2007 to 39.4% in 2009

signals a dramatic
fall in educational achievement.

Secondary
school pass rates at Form 4 (O
-
level)
fell
less dramatically, from

23.4% in 2006 to 19.7% in 2009. B
ut this
picture of only around one in five students achieving five O
-
level passes is of great concern. The
performance of girls has fallen at a rate which mirrors that of boys, as shown in

Chart 2 below
.

Only the A
-
level g
rades, many coming from elite S1 schools, and only counting a small proportion of the age cohort,
are more positive.


62.4
68.0
70.5
51.5
39.4
21.5
23.4
16.9
12.6
19.7
78.7
83.7
83.3
73.1
79.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
% Pass Rate
Grade 7
O' Level
A' Level




Why intervene now?

Intervening to support the education sector in Zim
babwe will
help deliver

DFID
’s

Business Plan 2011
-
15,
in particular:

-

Structural Reform Priority (SRP) 1: Honour
the UK’s International commitments and support
actions to achieve the Millennium Development Goals

-

SRP

4: Strengthen g
overnance

and security

in fragile and conflict
-

affected countries

-

SRP 5: Lead international action to improve the lives of girls and women (including more girls
completing secondary and primary education).


This proposal delivers on public commitments in the DFID
Operational Plan 2011

15
for Zimbabwe
by

supporting 60,000 more children annually
to complete primary school and 4
0,000 more girls to finish
secondary school with
at least
£8m being spent
annually
on education.


Signalling now

-
in the run
-
up t
o national e
lections in 2012/13
-

that DFID is prepared to invest significantly
in Zimbabwe’s education sy
stem emphasises the priority we give

to the achievement of the education
-
related MDGs
through
support to those

most vulnerable and in need,
regardless of political

affiliations
.


The intervention would also build on some recent
encouraging deve
lopments in the sector:


(i)
MoESAC has developed, with assistance from the World Bank and the Education Transition Fund
(ETF), a costed Medium Term Educ
ation Plan (MTEP) for

2011
-
2015.
The plan is comprehensive in its
aspirations for all elements of the sector
.
D
elivering the plan in its entirety
will undoubtedly be extremely
challenging
given likely fiscal constraints
, but the plan in itself is a positive step forward.



(i
i) Over the duration of the MTEP (2011
-
15), MoESAC has budgeted for a steady increase in the
remuneration of teachers fro
m $363 (July 2011) up to between $500 and $
700 per month by 2015. This
recognises that
skilled, motivated and committed
teachers

are c
rucial to the delivery of the plan
.


(i
i
i) The ETF
-
a pooled fund
created in 2009,
supported by twelve donors
,

managed by UNICEF

and
working very closely with MoESAC
-

has comprehensively addressed the chronic shortages of

stationery
and textbooks in both primary and secondary schools.
Although t
his was a response to an emergency in
resource provision for schools
,

it shows that results in the sector can be delivered and quickly.
The
second
phase of ETF
could
now
provide
the

beginnings of the development of a 'shadow' S
ector
-
Wide A
pproach

(SWAp)

to funding the sector if future circumstances allow
. UK participation in
ETF II

would
support this
and help to deliver some of the key outputs envisaged in the MTEP including

targete
d school grants (to
address the issue of almost non
-
existent recurrent funding), curriculum reform, teacher development and
strengthened assessment regimes.


(iv)
The Campaign for Female Education


CAMFED


is already active in support of girls’ schoolin
g in 24


rural
districts, through bursaries and other indirect support mechanisms. It
has the
capacity to expand
using its well
-
grounded approach

and close ties with local communities and relevant authorities
.
So there
is an
established
partner

who
we can w
ork with

to deliver more in this area while looking to drive down unit
costs

through, for example, the use of new technologies

for monitoring and evaluation
.



B. Impact and Outcome

that
we expect to achieve


The Outcome of the intervention will be:

s
trengthened scope and quality of educational services enhances
student access, retention and achievement, with special attention being paid to the needs of vulnerable
and out
-
of
-
school young people

and girls
.


With the indicators being:

1.

Primary school comp
letion rate (gender disaggregated) [MDG 2 and 3]

2.

OVCs supported with access to education [MDG 2 and 3]


The Impact of the intervention will be:

Zimbabwe achieves equitable primary education of good quality for
all its children and gender parity in the seco
ndary cycle, with consequent wide
-
ranging social and
economic benefits
.
With the indicators being
:

1.

Examination pass rates at Grade 7 (i) and Form 4 (ii) [MDG2]

2.

Gender Parity Index for Primary and Secondary, particularly Quintiles 1 and 2 [MDG3]


The link
between the outcome and the impact is widely recognised. Educating girls underpins the
achievement of all other MDGs. Educated women help communities and societies become healthier,
wealthier and safer, and help to reduce child mor
tality, improve maternal
health and

tackle the spread of
HIV and AIDS. Overall, educating girls has additional developmental benefits which in the longer term will
benefit the next generation of boys and girls
.


But ensuring that the outcomes and impact are delivered upon in the m
edium
-
term will depend on a series
of factors. These include: the ability of all relevant partners to work effectively together to deliver on ETF II
and MTEP objectives;
and
the Government’s ability to secure and provide adequate financial resources for
th
e education sector

including to avert payroll disputes and attract and retain qualified staff while providing
sufficient resources for capital expenditure.



Appraisal Case

A.
What are the feasible options that address the
need set out in the Strategic case?



The diagram below illustrates the
'theory of change'

and

describes
how
the main activities proposed in
the Business Case
would
contribute to the outcome statement of a strengthened

better quality
educational services,
which impacts upon Zimbabwe's ability to provide equitable, good quality
'education for all'

The diagram illustrates the major activities that are proposed (which are dependent
upon which option(s) are selected for support
)

and how these lead to the expect
ed outputs, outcomes
and finally impact on the basic education sector. At each of these transitions in the theory of change, a
set of key assumptions and potential barriers are listed which may inhibit progress and the achievement
of the desired results.



The fragile nature of Zimbabwe's political economy is explored within Annex 3; factors around

possible
political transitions/
settlements (and follow
-
on economic impact), upcoming elections and politicised
management of the education sector may affect a
ll steps in the flow chart at some point in the period to
2015. The education investments made must be flexible enough to cope with a spectrum of inter
-
related
factors that are summarised under each of the four options explored.


All the options imply sup
port and expansion of systems to decentralise financial resources to the school
or student level through grants and individual bursaries. Since 2009 the banking system has resumed
using multiple hard currencies that
should be robust enough to cope and

virt
ually all schools have bank


accounts and governance structures are in place with sufficient transparency to limit the
likelihood of the
diversion of resources. Whether these resources are sufficient, in tandem with other government,
private, parental and
other donor

sources to bring about the increases in access and quality of service
delivery anticipated is hard to predict. Willingness to implement reforms around user fees, teacher
management, school governance and

curriculum are also key factors that ma
y impede the delivery of
results
.



In essence the upper two proposed options in the diagram focus on improvements to the supply side of
t
he education system with sector governance, school funding and teacher support activities. The lower
two options focus more on the demand side with scholarships or bursaries to specific children: OVCs, out
of school youth and adolescent girls seeking to c
omplete secondary school.


Barriers, especially at the primary


secondary school transition, are evident, especially for girls. Factors
around opportunity cost and travel time, early / polygamous marriages (specifically amongst apostolic
church sects
), adequate school sanitation and formal / informal fees structures (e.g. excessive
registration, entrance examination and uniform costs for secondary school) are all considerable. The
discussion under Option 2 considers evidence under these gender specif
ic factors in more detail; many
are generic to those faced by girls in most poor, developing countries.


Finally the translation of the proposed investments into tangible education gains requires a substantial
strengthening of the current data systems and assessment methods to be able track and measure
progress. Support measures to strengthen the knowledge b
ase
are
in place and the nee
d to do so is
widely recognised. But

the political economy factors described above may continue to inhibit the
willingness of the government to measure and disseminate key comparable education indicators.




Under
-
qualified
teachers'
upgraded, in
-
set
training linked to
curriculum and
national
assessment
reforms

Potential
Activities

School grants
process to reduce
levies, designed
and implemented
[ETF]

BEAM/
CPF Cash
Transfer funding of
Orphans and
Vulnerable
Children

Secondary School
Girls’ bursaries

through CAMFED or
BEAM


Outputs

Outcome

Impact

Better School and
System
Governance


Enhanced quality
of school
environments and
support systems
through the
provision of grants
to targeted schools
and an improved
capacity of
MoESAC to plan
for and implement
educational needs

Disadvantaged girls
supported in
secondary Forms1
-
4
and overa
ll
completion of lower
secondary

Strengthened
scope and
quality of
educational
services
enhances
student access,
retention and
achievement,
with special
attention being
paid to the needs
of vulnerable,
out
-
of
-
school
young people
and adolescent
girls

Zimbabwe achieves
equitable primary
education of good
quality for all its
children and gender
parity in the secondary
cycle, with consequent
wide
-
ranging social
and economic benefits

Assumptions and Potential
Barriers





Stable macro political /
ec
onomic environment,
teacher strikes and elections
in 2012/13 do not impede
delivery and/or close schools.



Policies on returnee &
unqualified teachers and
school fees are revised and
implemented



Banking system continues to
be able to transparently
disburse
school / student
payments.



Equitable funding and
scholarship selection
formulae can be identified and
adhered to.



Girl specific factors: travel
security, early marriage,
school sanitation and
opportunity cost factors are
addressed in tandem


Assumptions

and
Potential Barriers





Stand off around
indigenisation stalls
curriculum reform
and associated
teacher training /
management
reforms.



Inability to reform
legislation inhibits
moves to free
education for poor /
vulnerable,
especially those
without birth
certificates and
young person
dropouts



Distributed finance
is applied effectively
at micro level,
without major
leakage or
diversion.


Assumptions and Potential Barriers





Progress made on inhibiting
political economy factors(see
Annex 3): elections, p
oliticised
central government, intimidation
of teachers



Gradual progress made on improving
teacher salaries, in tandem with
government resources to quality
enhancing, recurrent and capital
expenditure.



EMIS and assessment data systems
allow quantification
of progress and
feedback to reform process.



Time lag for impact of
reforms and activities on
student achievement and
follow on socio
-
economic
benefits.




Option 1
: ETF poole
d fund
:
contribute up t
o £6 million per annum from 2012
-
2015 to the second
phase of the Education Transition Fund, (ETF

II)


Origins, focus and management

The
ETF

was launched in September 2009 to improve the quality of education for children through the
p
rovision of essential teaching and learning materials for primary schools, and high level technical
assistance to MoESAC.
It was expanded in
November 2010
to include the delivery of teaching and
learning materials to secondary schools. This was possible
due to huge cost savings realized in the first
stage of the

programme implementation.

The
ETF
has helped to increase alignment with
the
Government

of Zimbabwe’s

priorities, promoting ownership, coordination and reduce fragmentation. The
use of a pooled fun
ding mechanism has allowed a variety of funding agencies to contribute to the
improvement of the sector. The engagement of UNICEF as the managing agent of the ETF has created
an environment where development partners and MoESAC can increasingly work togeth
er on identifying
priorities and lower
ing

levels of mistrust/misunderstanding between the different constituencies.

The
table below illustrates how the ETF objectives have been adapted to the changing programme
environment:

Situation

Programme

Date

Objec
tives

Response to
complex
emergency

Education
Transition
Fund

Sept

2009

To decrease drop
-
out rates by procuring and distributing
textbooks and learning materials to all 5,675 primary schools,
according to need, to reach a 2:1 pupil/textbook ratio.

To
ensure better school based management of educational
resources through training of School Development
Committees.

To improve access of MoESAC to high quality technical
assistance

Reprogramming
of cost savings
for secondary
school books

(£8 million)

Revised

ETF

Nov

2010

To decrease drop
-
out rates by procuring and distributing
textbooks and learning materials to all 5,675 primary schools
and 2,333 secondary schools according to need, to reach a
1:1 pupil/textbook ratio in agreed subjects.
5

To strengthen MoESAC’s capacity to plan for, provide and
monitor educational services through the provision of high
quality technical assistance.

Second design
phase
(supporting
sector recovery
over 5 years)

ETF II

(2011
-
2015)

April
2011

To support the
continued revitalisation of the education sector
by assisting MoESAC to realize its objectives of achieving
universal and equitable access to quality basic education for
all Zimbabwean children through assisting MoESAC to
strengthen education delivery mech
anisms, improving the
quality of educational services and enhancing access,
retention and achievement of all learners with special
attention to the vulnerable children across the country


including out of school children.


What did the first phase of the

ETF achieve?

It
focused on a particular issue


the chronic shortages of stationery and textbooks in most schools


while also

facilitating dialogue between
MoESAC and potential funding agencies in relation to shared
concerns for the future of the sector.

The available funds
solved

the short
-
term crisis with respect to the
supply of educational materials to all schools, thus making a real contribution to improving the conditions
for learning. It was a very concrete and visible achievement around which trus
t could be built.

It
developed a mechanism which could readily be transformed into a SWAp approach with government in
more favourable future times.


The box below summarises lesson learning as elicited from
donor

partners, UNICEF management and
external
reviews of the ETF to date
.


A
project
completion review of
the first

phase of the

ETF
completed in late

2011

documented
huge cost savings (
around $
10 million)


and
big increases in the
volume of resources purchased (from 6 to 22 million textbooks,
with
uni
t prices
dropping by a factor of 4 or more)
.



ETF II characteristics

As the education sector
moves

to
wards

a phase of long
-
term recovery, the overall goal of the second
phase of the ETF will be to support the
delivery of
universal and equitable access to quality and relevant
basic education for all Zimbabwean children. ETF II
has
three key thematic areas which are guided by
and fully aligned
with MoESAC’s EMTP (2011
-

2015):


Thematic Areas and Linkages with MoESAC
Plan

K
ey Activities Linked to Thematic
Areas

School and System Governance


Sector Wide Programming

School Improvement

School Monitoring, Supervision and
Support

Teaching and Learning


Teaching Quality

Curriculum Review

Provision of Teaching and Learning
Materials

Assessment

Second Chance Education


Sub
-
sector Policy Analysis

Young People’s Return to Mainstream
Education

Out
-
of
-
school Technical Education


The second phase of ETF will see the programme, under the direction of MoESAC, and in line with its
Strategic Plan, focus more on the systems and structures that provide education. This will involve
building the capacity of MoESAC, including Zimbabwe’s te
achers
,

to deliver quality and relevant
education for all. ETF II is significantly broader in scope and more ambitious than ETF I. The programme
will focus on investing resources at the school level across the country through the development of a’
block g
rant initiative’ with the aim of reducing user fee costs for all learners. These grants will allow
schools

to
, for example,

reconstruct WASH facilities
,

repair school infrastructure (including teacher
houses), purchase essential teaching and learning mater
ials and procure teacher and student furniture,
allowing for rapid scale up if future funding permits.

Important lessons emerging from the ETF phase 1 experience include:



Government leadership and capacity is critical to implement a large scale programme in a
complex

environment
,
and
sustained donor
engagement
in building relationships over time can build
confidence to re
-
introduce technical assistance and restart engagement with the international aid
architecture
;



National scale results are possible even in complex environments;



Recovery financing mechanisms
can support the development of an inclusive partnership;



In addition to assuring consistency in funding levels during the recovery period, use of ETF as a
pooled fund helped to increase alignment with Government priorities, promoting ownership,
coordinati
on and reducing fragmentation;



A
n effective incremental step towards sector budgeting

and government leadership in resource
allocation.

Pooled funding can be a step towards establishing more formal sector coordination;



Investing in school governance stru
ctures to improve transparency and accountability is a priority;



Huge potential for cost saving in mass procurement

and accumulation of political and public good
will with a universal textbook campaign
; and



Cluster arrangements can support such an
approach and ensure the NGO sector’s involvement.



The second phase of the ETF will support the following key specific activities:





The finalisation of a national sector planning framework for education
, with corresponding provincial
and district level plans, directed by the Ministry of Education, Sport, Arts and Culture;



The development of a national school grants initiative, delivering critical investment (including
WASH) at school level, to assist in
reduction of financial barriers to education for boys and girls;



In
-
service training in modern pedagogical and subject based skills, with a focus on

improving the
basic teaching skills of at least 10,000 unqualified teachers;



Training of at least 300 key M
inistry personnel at the national, provincial and district level, as well
as some 8,000 school heads to strengthen their system management capacities related to
planning, implementation, supervision and monitoring, linked to priorities outlined in the emer
ging 5
Year Strategic Plan;



The development of a fully revised, modern, market oriented and culturally appropriate curriculum
framework, with corresponding tested syllabi for all pre
-
primary, primary and secondary levels;

and



Development of a second chance

education programme, providing alternative learning
opportunities for at least 200,000 young people, with the aim of returning at least 100,000 school
learners to mainstream education.


It is expected that some parts of each of the thematic areas will be outsourced, while for others, UNICEF
and its implementing partners will be the major support to MoESAC implementation. The ETF will benefit
from regular interagency collaboration and par
tnership with other agencies such as UNESCO and the
World Bank as well as building stronger partnerships with sister Ministries such as the Ministry of Higher
and Tertiary Education and the Ministry of Labour and Social Services.


To ensure that the obje
ctives of the ETF are met, governance structures between funding partners,
MoESAC and other education stakeholders will be strengthened. Furthermore
,

a comprehensive
monitoring and evaluation system will be established that includes (i) ongoing activity b
ased monitoring;
(ii) the outsourcing of
evaluation
; and, (iii) the recruitment of high level operational research expertise to
help inform and prioritize MoESAC ETF II
-
funded programmes.


The total requested programmable amount for the 5 year duration (
2011
-
2015) of ETF II

(including
UNICEF overheads)

is USD$

85,773,608
.

A large percentage of these funds will be spent in 2012 and
2013 (approximately USD$23 million each year), with funding requirements decreasing during the
remaining period of the program
me as Government
of Zimbabwe
funding is expected to increase

given
current levels of growth and recent increases in revenues
. ETF II will develop annual plans linked to
government budget and planning cycles. It aims to be a responsive and flexible means
of supporting
specific measurable interventions that meet high priority gaps within the education Strategic Investment
Plan 2011. The programme will work to improve and strengthen guidelines, systems and standards and
will therefore provide a platform to
leverage further resources for education.


Outcomes/Attribution

The impact of ETF II’s interventions, from a 2011 base line, is expected to be:



At least
100,000 more pupils
c
ompleting primary (G7)
or
and secondary (Form 4) school by 2015;



Student learning outcomes at primary and O
-
level, improved by at least
10 percentage points

by
2015, assessed through an enhanced national assessment system;



A significant reduction in gender gaps, in terms of enrolment and achievement, ensuring a gender
p
arity index of over 95% at ECD, primary and secondary levels by 2015, with a focus on children
from lower wealth quintiles.


DFIDs share of the total ETF II budget is approximately 45% of the total, so that this represents the level
of att
ribution to be
claimed against the o
utcomes.




Political, social, institutional and environmental dimensions

Zimbabwe

is a fragile s
tate
going through
a complex and volatile transition. Western donors, in particular
the UK, are treated with considerable suspicion by many

key
government
stakeholders. The European
Commission has undertaken Political Economy Analysis of the Zimbabwean Education Sector in 2011 to
assist in better understanding the situation, implications and risk mitigation strategies for programming.
The key findings are
summarized in
Annex 3

and used both in the issues matrix below and in the risk
assessment section of the Management Case
.

The challenge confronting education in Zimbabwe is is to
start the process of recovery in the mids
t of an ongoing and protracted

econo
mic and political
crisis.
Whilst the Global Political Agreement

signed in 2009

opened up some space to launch the beginnings of
a recovery strategy for the education sector, limited co
-
operation at the political level compromise efforts
at sustained recov
ery.

T
he Political Economy Analysis
supports the programming approach

of the ETF II
proposal and identifies some

key design factors to consider:



Key issues

Political

After a lengthy stand
-
off between the education ministries and donors, except in
relation to emergency responses to crises like the recent cholera epidemic, the
development of the ETF and its careful management by UNICEF has led to a
significantly more pos
itive environment, both
in terms
of communication and
action. There remain high levels of caution on both sides, but there is a sense of
the
start
of a process of recovery. The success of the initial phase of the ETF, in
supplying large numbers

of textbooks for schools, has increased political and
inst
itutional confidence. But s
chools, their managers and teachers remain
vulnera
ble to political influences/
pressures.


Institutional

The quality of dialogue, planning and action between MoESAC, UNI
CEF and
other donor partners has markedly improved in the last year, with sound technical
assistance being provided to MoESAC through ETF resources. Historically elite
urban schools can provide much larger ‘incentives’ to teachers in the richer urban
areas
. There is a real fear that if government acts against these favoured
institutions, there will be a rapid blossoming of the private
and informal
sector
s
,
which has not been a feature of education in Zimbabwe,

with unclear
consequences
.


Social and
cultura
l

There are growing social inequities, related in part to the differential qualities of
schooling available in urban and rural schools. An important response in ETF II is
an attempt to move forward on skill
-
based (technical


vocational) education,
though
it is recognised that this is not a panacea.


Environment
and climate
change

No negative impact on the environment or climate change is anticipated.



Option


2
:

Support Disadvantaged Girls to Complete Four Years of Secondary Education
, through
funding
of £12m over the duration of the programme


Investing in Girls’ Education


R
esearch on the additional developmental benefits accruing from

educating girls is summarised
in the
table
below
6

with

four
of
the ten impacts

refer
ring

specifically to investment in secondary

education:






There are
however
a range of general barriers that need to be addressed,
and
those which apply
most
directly
to the Zimbabwean context
include:




Economic:

including direct (school fees) and indirect
(uniform, travel), opportunity costs in terms of
household responsibilities
;






Social/Cultural: including restrictive religious/cultural views of female empowerment and limited
community ex
pectations of the role of women;




Educational: including lack of fem
ale teachers, poor quality curricula and teaching, language of
instruction, teacher ab
senteeism and overage enrolment;




Physical:

distance to school, lack of appropriate sanitation facilities, poor safety of girls in and around
school
; and




Political and I
nstitutional

(at both national and sub
-
national levels): lack of political commitment to
girls’ education can mean approaches don’t reflect girls needs and the barriers they face.


Support for girls


Zimbabwean experience


In recent years, two mechanisms
have provided support for girls in secondary schools. They are (i) The
Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM), and (ii) Campaign for Female Education (CAMFED).


BEA
M is an
initiative supporting large numbers of OVCs in primary and secondary schools. GoZ
has
taken responsibility for the funding of all BEAM secondary interventions, through the Ministry of Labour
and Social Services. In 2010, BEAM at secondary level reached 198,000 students, equally split by
gender, offering financial support through the sch
ool
of
approximately $100 per student per year.


CAMFED has been active in Zimbabwe

since 1993
. It currently works in 24 districts with 1,726 partner
schools

and its programmes have directly benefitted over 700,000
people
to date
7
. It provides a holistic
package of support to partner schools which covers: provision of a ‘safety net’ fund to meet the needs of
vulnerable children; training of teacher mentors; provision of educational resources; training of School
Development Committees; and support for paren
ts to run community projects to contribute to the school
and enable out
-
of
-
school children to enrol.
Its model is to draw together multiple stakeholders to improve
the quality of education provision, address underlying obstacles to children attending schoo
l and
increase accountability at a local level. It proved itself to be adaptable during the crisis of 2008
-
2009 and
teacher retention levels were much higher in CAMFED partner schools than in other schools in the same
geographical areas.


CAMFED costs its
support to a

secondary school student at $25
7 per student per year

over
the next four
years if it is to provide around 70,000 years of bursaries for secondary education benefitting around
22,000 girls

including in new districts
. This figure is not strictly

comparable with the BEAM figure, as
CAMFED provides a much more comprehensive package of support (clothing, fees, stationery and
sanitary costs)
. Also, CAMFED support is spread across primary and secondary schools, with different
levels of investment

and
has numerous spillover effect
s

into the broader school
and

community

including
through

a major alumini network
. The CAMFED model also aligns well with DFID's corporate approach
on empowerment and accountability to the individual
8
.


In contrast a number o
f concerns have been
raised regarding BEAM

s efficiency, in particular around targeting bias and lack of transparency in
support to individual students
.


However
BEAM is currently the subject of a major evaluation review

which
in a few months time
should p
rovide a more accurate picture of the programme.


As
a comparator, the new DFID Girls Challenge Fund states that it could fund up to 890,000 girls for
three years of junior secondary school for £355 million or £400 per girl over three years, at £133 (~ $21
3)
per year. This is similar to the
current
CAMFED unit cost
($227)
.


Expected outcomes and impact

The general impact of investment in girls’ schooling
and girls receiving secondary education
has been
documented earlier in this section. What is also clear is that recent evidence, summarised in the box
below, suggests that the significant benefits for economic growth come from gains in student attainment
rather than mere participation in schooli
ng.



Promotion of Economic Growth

Some studies find that adding one year to the average number of year’s schooling of the
population can add 0.3% or more to the economic growth rate.
9

After allowing for the costs
of achieving such an increase, this is equ
ivalent to an economic return of 20% or more. The
cross
-
country studies of the impact of education on economic growth reflect benefits that
accrue to the broader economy as well as the individual, and imply higher economic rates of
return to the investmen
t.


There is an emerging body of evidence which suggest that the benefits of education for
economic growth
come entirely through student attainment
.

A recent cross
-
country study
finds that a one standard deviation improvement in student test scores is a
ssociated with an
annual economic growth rate that is higher by two percentage points.
10

On conservative
assumptions about the cost and phasing for achieving the required improvement, this would
be equivalent to a rate of return of at least 12%.


Investment in girls education at all levels remains a good investment for society from an economic
viewpoint, even without considering the broader health and social benefits, subject to three important
caveats
:


the benefits come via improved educational a
ttainment by the students, so quality is
paramount;

the private returns, especially at primary level, are falling, so costs to the parents need to be
contained, and access to secondary education improved, where the returns are higher; and,

although the
average economic returns are attractive, the marginal costs of expanding educational opportunity to
those girls who are currently excluded is likely to be significantly higher.


Political, social, institutional and environmental dimensions



Key issues

Political

Since independence girls’ education and gende
r equity was strongly supported.
There was

a female Minister of Education in the late 1980’s. By the early 1990’s,
Zimbabwe had the best record of participation rates for girls in sub
-
Sah
aran Africa,
a matter of genuine pride.
Officially, t
his remains the case, though, as we have
documented, there has been recent slippage of girls’ participation, particularly in
secondary schooling, and their academic achievements lag behind those of boys.


Institutional

Set against that strong political support for gender equity, there are institutional
realities confronting girls. In the professional, often urban, environments, there are
the usual ‘glass ceilings’ common to many countries. The
upper eche
lons
of the
senior
civil service, business, etc, are

still largely populated by males,
al
though
there is a female Vice
-
President in the Government of National Unity. In rural
areas, where poverty
is an everyday reality, women’s

roles are more traditional.
And t
hey are frequently dealing with the implications of HIV/AIDS for the family.


Social and
cultural

Zimbabwe is a country where there are high expectations of the social development
of women in the society.
But a
s

already mentioned
, in the ever
-
present

environment of HIV/AIDS, women of all ages from teenager to grandparent, find
themselves
in

unfamiliar caring roles.


Environment
and climate
change

No negative impact on the environment or climate change is anticipated. Indirectly
there is growing evid
ence of the link between girls education and lower fertility,
resulting in less environmental damage and climate change.


Option 3
: Investing in Teachers to address the low skill levels of unqualified teachers
, through
approx £11m of support over the
duration of the programme


Evidence relating to importance of teachers

Teachers in countries as disparate as Canada, Finland, Singapore and South Korea share
a number of


key characteristics including that t
hey are: selected for training from among the highest academic cohorts
of school leavers; well trained; well rewarded; and have high status in their respective societies. In, say,
1990, many of these characteristics applied to Zimbabwean teachers, but this

is now rarely the case.


Many teachers with the most marketable skills


particularly in Science and Mathematics


have left the
country for other
parts

of
the region. Twenty thousand
are
estimated to
have left
at the height of the crisis
in 2008. They e
ither fill crucial gaps in teaching cadres, as in South Africa, or they use their skill
-
sets in
other occupations. How many will ever return to teach in Zimbabwe
in unclear
.


The response in Zimbabwe has been to recruit large numbers of temporary teachers

to fill gaps and
maintain the Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) at a relatively favourable level. In 2009, the PTRs were: primary


32.8:1; secondary


19.5:1. In 2010, 19,732 teachers were temporarily employed, with the overall
picture shading huge provincial an
d urban / rural differences: Harare 3%

of all teachers were temporarily
employed but the figure for

Matabeleland South
was
45%. In the secondary sector shortages in Science
and Math
ematics are frequently unfilled

because no suitable candidates are availabl
e.
Most of the

temporary staff (and vacancies) are in rural areas where they receive very limited support. They are only
remuner
ated for their term
-
time labour

(unlike regular teachers) and rural parents can rarely

afford salary
'top
-
ups'.


MoESAC priority

in the Education Medium Term Plan


The EMTP proposes that by 2015

Zimbabwe ‘will have a highly motivated and competent professional
teaching cadre providing high quality learning opportunities for all learners in Zimbabwe’.

Only some of
the
qualified teac
hers who migrated

will return meaning that
key elements of responding to this challenge
include: gradually increasing the levels of remuneration of teachers; providing better work
ing
environments in the schools and more in
-
service training;

and the upgradi
ng of under/un
-
qualified
teachers. In relation to temporary teachers
, EMTP targets for 2015 include

r
educing temporary teachers
on the payroll to less than 10% of the total
,

and e
nsuring temporary teachers are employed for at least
twelve months
.


How coul
d DFID contribute?


DFID could provide funding

of $16.5 million

to cover the
difference
between the term
-
time
-
only pay
that
temporary teachers currently receive and the
annual pay of
their permanent counterparts
. This would
then make the upgrading of these

teachers a realistic ambition. These additional funds would not be
provided as salary increments, but linked to a major upgrading programme. During holiday time
,

residential and self study courses would be followed, linked to school based mentoring and
teaching
practice.


MoESAC wishes to provide between 10,000 and 15,000 temporary teachers with good quality training to
ensure appropriate certification and full incorporation into the teaching cadre. This would involve the
creation
by MoESAC
of appropriat
e programmes which took account of the prior experience of the
students and operated
through a combination of
part
-
time study and
part
-
time
work with distance or e
-
learning elements.


Such programmes would most likely be based at existing education colleges, or possibly the Zimbabwe
Open University. DFID could fund various aspects of this activity, responding to institutional (support for
design and resourcing of appropriate programmes)

and student needs (provision of bursaries and
scholarships). This activity would complement the large
-
scale in
-
service training inputs anticipated in the
planning for ETF II and
allow ETF to concentrate more
on other priority activities.


Outcome

The outc
ome would be a significant enhancement of the skills of the teaching cadre and the possible
revitalisation of the training institutions. The
percentage
of under
-
qualified teachers in the system would
be substantially reduced by 2015

as measured by: (i)
ap
praisal of the performance of the newly trained


teacher, by school (head teacher) and district authorities (officers)

(ii) increased

teacher attendance
; and
(iii)
student performance in various student assessment measures (although many other factors other

than teacher qualification influence student performance, such as parental education and income).


Political, social, institutional and environmental dimensions



Key issues

Political

Teachers’ standing in many
communities

has changed for the worse due in part to
t
heir perceived
role in the 2008 election chaos

and subsequent departure in

large
numbers from the country. This means that

attempts to secure salary increases are
unlikely to be
positively received. There is a
lso
a

high level of uncertainty about
how many
of those who
left will ever return from
abroad.


Institutional

A k
ey issue, which is partly political and partly social, is the continuing payment of

incentives’

which are essentially
salary top
-
ups largely elic
ited from parents. There
is a huge difference between the capacity
of
urban and rural schools to provide this
kind of subsidy, leading

to acute differences in the amount of resources available to
schools. Now that this ‘system’ is in place, it will requir
e enormous determination
on the part of MoESAC to remove

it
.
And i
f mishandled, it could lead to further flight
of teachers from the government
-
supported system to a growing private school
sector, as is happening in many neighbouring countries
in
Africa. W
hile a 'one off'
mass upgrade programme can be justified in response to the mass migration of
2007/8, this would significantly add to the payroll, as upgrading teachers implies
high salaries, paid 12 months a year.


Social and
cultural

The notion of the
teacher as a key professional in the fabric of the society, charged
with the development of youth in the pursuit of national
development aims and
objectives
,

has suffered in recent years
. It is not obvious that teachers as a group
have great determination
to address the issue, being preoccupied with survival
strategies. It is important in this context to recognise that teachers are trained to
teach



a primarily cognitive activity with limited practical applications
-

and their
ability to find jobs in other
sectors may be limited.


Environment
and climate
change


No negative impact on the environment or climate change is anticipated.

Option 4
.

Do Nothing in terms of Direct Education Support, but put more resources into Cash
Transfers and OVC School

Fee payments


Alternative Investments in Cash Transfer and School Fee Payments

To avoid the reputational risks an
d related impact outlined above DFID could

increase
financial
contributions
to the Child Protection Fund (CPF), in particular earmarking fu
nds to two of its components:
(i)
Social Cash Transfers to labour cons
trained 'ultra
-
poor' households; and (ii) s
chool fee, levy and exam
payments for OVCs through the national government Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM) social
protection system.

D
FID’s £20m existing contribution to the CPF was agreed early in 2011 (known as the National Child
Sensitive Protection Programme: NCSPP) and seeks to support the government's National Action Plan
for OVCs (2011
-
15)
through
the creation of a new national
household based Social Cash Transfer
scheme. BEA
M funding for primary students wa
s also included for the Year 2011.
BEAM supported

an
estimated 680,000 primary and secondary students in 2010.

Diverting the entire £36m
proposed
into up
-
scaling the cash tr
ansfer schem
e and

continuing BEAM
support up to 2012 and beyond is a viable alternative
. The

programme management structure
and


agreement
via UNICEF
is already in place so this would

also reduce the
amount of programme overhead
costs for
DFID Zimbabwe asso
ciated with management and oversight

of a new programme
.

If this option was
chosen then discussions about how to support
female secondary student
s

would be
needed as
currently only primary student
s benefit from donor BEAM funds
. Funds allocated on Cash
T
ransfers would inevitably be diluted in terms of educational impact as the scheme is not conditional on
school attendance and of course households are expected to use the resources on a spectrum of needs,
not just education. In the next section (the compa
rison of options) the economic appraisal findings
undertaken for the Child Protection Fund are used to illustrate the potential benefits if this 'demand side'
intervention option was followed.

Political, social, institutional and environmental dimensions


Key issues


Political

There has been a significant experience of cash transfers to schools through
BEAM over a period of a decade. Overall, BEAM seems to provide
reasonable
value
-
for
-
money
al
though it goes to schools as a subsidy rather
than to needy individuals. The ETF II intends to re
-
introduce school grants,
based on an equitable formula and taking account
of
the needs of
vulnerable children. The proposition is that the school grants appro
ach will
reduce targeting issues


The CPF supports the Na
tional Action Plan for OVC which is the
responsibility of
the Ministry of Labour and Social Services (MoLSS)
. It is
worth noting that there are some inter
-
ministry tensions in the
Government
of Natio
nal Unity.
And scale
-
up of cash transfer and reforms of BEAM
targeting may be difficult to influence and

even be subject to politically
-
linked
targeted, especially in electoral periods.


I
nstitutional

The ownership of cash transfer schemes remains highly

contentious. BEAM
is managed by the MoLSS and appears to have been professionally
administered.
But the Ministry of Education (
MoESAC
)

finds it uncomfortable
that a scheme which benefits students in ‘its’ schools is

controlled by
another Ministry
.


There
is also a discussion going on among donors and with and within
Government about the longer
-
term future of BEAM.


Social and
cultural

The current BEAM targeting syst
em involves

community committees
deciding which OVCs are 'most in need'. This can be divisi
ve locally and
discourage community support to improve and maintain the school
environment.


Environment
and climate
change

No negative impact on the environment or climate change is anticipated.


Option 5: Counterfactual

Implications of Doing Nothing

It is worthwhile
briefly outlining

the 'status quo' option of not allocating any new
UK
resources directly to
the education sector. DFID would
certainly
be vulnerable to
criticism
from
the G
overnment

of Zimbabwe

and other development partners,
not least be
cause
DFID
’s

Operational Plan 2011

2015

for Zimbabwe

has publically proposed to spend £8m annually on education
.

Furthermore
DFID resumed education
support in 2010
through
the
first phase of
ETF
, has

seconded an educati
on adviser to the EU Delegation
and i
n January

2011
allocated
an additional £5m to the ETF
given the
satisfactory progress

made
.

So
it


would
seem strange to now disengage

from the sector.

It is true that f
ive other major donor contributions to the ETF Phase II have already been pledged (EU,

Germany, Finland, Sweden, OSISA)
. A
nd CAMFED will continue their current programme of girls'
bursaries for secondary education in 24 districts

and look for funding from other sources to carry out its
planned expansion to 8 new districts
.
But t
he major im
pact of
the UK
contributing no further resources
would be that the ETF would be massively under funded (by
nearly
half) for its 4 y
ear programme and
activities

and in particular

the school grants programme

of ETF II
would be scaled back
so

inhibiting
regul
ar school attendance, progression

of pupils

and quality learning. It would also mean a continued
reliance on parental inputs and social protection safety net programmes to provide funds for a highly
variable level of education service provision.


B.
Evidence on relevant elements of educational change

in the different options


As highlighted earlier in this section, educational change is multi
-
dimensional and an appropriate balance
is necessary to
deliver
positive impact
s
.

A brief review of evidence r
egarding the
four possible options

follows.


Option 1

Key components of th
e proposals for ETF II include:

(i) provision of school grants (ii) revision
of primary and secondary curriculum with linked
Continuing Professional Development (
CPD
)

for
teachers,

and (iii) extension of existing assessment processes to include measures of literacy and
numeracy at key stages.

The intention of the ETF II, to create a major system of school grants, is an
attempt to reintroduce and improve a collapsed system o
f govern
ment recurrent funding and ensure
consistent quality education in poorer rural areas.



The evidence base for the beneficial impact of the introduction of school grants is substantial, although
with important caveats:


-

Zimbabwean and international evidenc
e from across Africa (World Bank UNICEF 2009) suggests
that
removing compulsory school costs can have a dramatic and beneficial effect in enabling access to
education for the vulnerable
.

H
owever
this requires
careful financial planning and
adequate

provision of
teachers and essential quality inputs. Most countries that have abolished fees have
replaced them with
per capita based school grants
11

-

Woessmann (2003), following analysis of
Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study

(TIMSS)

results indicates that “increasing school resources will not succeed in raising student
achievement unless these resources are used efficiently by teachers and schools”.
It should be noted
however that
most schools submitting for TIMSS are
in industrialise
d countries
.


-

A major multi
-
country synthesis paper on School Based Management found that '

it has the
potential to be a low cost way of making public spending on education more efficient by increasing the
accountability of the agents involved and by empow
ering the clients to improve learning outcomes'
(World Bank 2007)
12

-


In the Nigerian Girls Education Project (since 2005), grants to schools, on the basis of well
-
developed school plans, appear to have been a successful way to increase transparency and
commitment at the local level. School Based Management Committees are h
olding schools accountable.
These grants are scrutinised not just by the SBMC but by the wider community. There is a theory well
tested in development literature that moving accountability closer to where the service is provided,
reduces corruption. There
are anecdotal reports of communities raising funds,
building classrooms and
contracting their own teachers.(Sulleiman Adediran, 2010)
13


The evidence base
for school grants
is assessed as
Medium

The
re is less
evidence relating to the impact of curriculum re
form o
n learning outcomes. But relevant
studies include:




-

Abadzi (2006), applying cognitive neuroscience to the
pedagogy of reading, recommended a
minimum of 850 hours of instruction per year, with effective use of instructional time; a textbook for every
student to take home; and, for multi
-
grade teaching, an integrated package of materials, training support
and curriculum.


-

An a
nalysis of international tests shows that
broad
-
based cognitive skills are key for economic
growth, income distribution and retur
ns to investment in education.
The analysis also d
emonstrated that
gains for those individuals with more advanced skills sets are important (Hanushek & Woessmann,
2007).


This relative lack of evidence may be partly due
to the
fact that
a new curriculum
teach
es different skills
and so it might be hard
to
compare or measure

gains in student learning. It is
also
worth noting that,
despite a recognised international
commonality across syllabuses (t
he Primary Mathematics curriculum
in Tajikistan is probably r
emarkably similar to that in Tanzania), huge professional effort is often invested
in curriculum reform processes which generate little change in classroom practice and the quality of
learning.

O
verall the evidence base for curriculum reform is
Low


While

it is clear that close attention needs to be given to the assessment of student pr
ogress in literacy
and numeracy

and that this process

needs to begin

long before the first public assessment by ZimSEC at
the end of the primary cycle, there is as yet littl
e evi
dence that such results are being used in Zimbabwe

other than to

level criticism against teachers
. The key outcome from such testing needs to be the use of
the findings in supporting individual teachers in improving the approaches they use in their cl
assrooms.

It has already been signalled that, while investment in focused student skill assessments is an important
development, findings related to the impact on teaching and learning processes are not yet available.


The evidence base is assessed as
Lo
w

Overall the evidence base for Option 1

(ETF
-
2) is assessed as
Medium.


Option 2
. The evidence of impact of investment in the education of girls through primary and secondary
school has been
referred to under Option 1 and is
summarised in the DFID Girls
Challenge Fund
Business Case
14
.

Keeping girls in school is a key development challenge and is one that, twenty years
ago, was a normal Zimbabwean expectation. While this still remains largely true for primary schooling,
the lowered rates of participation o
f girls in secondary schooling are of great concern.


The collapse of government recurrent funding for Zimbabwean
schools

and the consequent additional
burden on families has been documented in the Strategic Case. Keeping girls and OVCs in school has
beco
me an urgent priority in this context. BEAM, through direct transfers of fu
nds to schools, at a cost of
$
27
per pupil supported per annum, can reasonably claim to contribute to holding primary attendance
rates at around 85%. CAMFED support to girls at secon
dary level is at a mu
ch higher level
-

$22
7 per
supported student


but comes with a cluster of important complementary benefits.


The evidence base for targeted support for girls includes:

-

In rural western Kenya, scholarships for girls improved achievemen
t scores and self
-
esteem
r
elative to those not selected
15
.

-

The Bangladesh school stipend programme has resulted in a 20
-
30% increase in school
enrolment, and children benefiting from the programme are likely to stay in school for up to two years
longer than

other children
16
.

-

In a randomized trial of a cash transfer program to support adolescent girls in Malawi, the
researchers found improvements in school
enrolment for girls whether or not the cash grants (both to the
parents and to the girl) were conditione
d on school attendance.
17

However, attendance and test scores
only improved for those whose grants were conditioned on school attendance.



-

Results from Latin America and Africa

demonstrate that cash transfers have also shown to be
beneficial in increasing secondary education outcomes and reducing child labour for adolescent girls
.
18

-

The World Bank regards the introduction of ‘Education subsidies through conditional cash
transfers
’ as a strategic option for addressing barriers to girls’ education
19
.

The evidence base is assessed as
Medium


Option 3
.

Investment in attempting to enhance the skill
-
sets and performance of teachers in sub
-
Saharan African countries, and elsewhere, has often produced unconvincing outcomes.
Likely
explanations
include:

t
he very large numbers of teachers in the system
; f
ailure

in the training processes
to diagnose the needs of individual teachers
; f
ailure to apply training and better pedagogic approaches in
the actual classrooms of the individual teacher
; f
ailure to provide useful support mechanisms at the
school/classroom leve
ls
; and l
ow ability to motivate teachers without reasonable salary and conditions of
service, regardless of individual skills, training and aptitude
20
.


Barber et al (2010) create what is almost a hierarchy of challenges which can lead to the recognition of

a
teacher as an autonomous pro
fessional. In summary, they are (i) p
rovide motivation and

scaffolding


for
low
-
skill teachers

(ii) e
nsure teacher (and school) accountability

(iii) e
stablish collaborative practices
between teachers within and across school
s

(iv) m
ake the apprenticeship and mentorship of teachers as
distinct as that seen by other professionals in medicine and law.


For Zimbabwe

this has

now become a formidable agenda

given that around 25% of teachers are either
unqualified or under
-
qualified
, and operating at a very low level. Due to the collapse of recurrent funding
for development activities throughout the last decade, activity in all four levels is minimal.

The proposed
teacher development option is a direct response to the commitment of M
oESAC, in its Education Medium
Term Plan, to
ensure that
unqualified or under
-
qualified

teachers

reach the minimum diploma level to be
considered qualified.
The
ETF II proposal
includes
a commitment to address the continuing professional
development (CPD)
needs of the rest of the teaching force. The development of thi
s programme is work
-
in
-
progress and

will need to take account of historical weak outcomes from programmes of in
-
service
teacher education.


There is a good understanding of what needs to be do
ne to improve teacher performance

linking the five
stages of theory, demonstration, practice, feedback and support/mentoring
. Unfortunately, there is rarely
systematic follow
-
through in training interventions, be they for pre
-
service, newly qualified or ex
perienced
teachers. If the classic training sequence stops after the first two stages, the impact on changed practice
is close to zero.

S
tudies which indicate some of the conditions
needed to achieve

changes in teaching and learning

include:

-

Analysis of the PASEC standard tests for Mathematics and French in Burkina Faso, Cameroon,
Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Madagascar by Michaelowa (2001) showed that teacher’s initial education
and training, and experience, had a significant impact on results.


-

The cluster
-
based mentoring programme (CBMP), Pakistan


cascade model to deliver school
-
based professional development teachers. Mentoring improves teachers’ skills and students’
achievement, with positive feedback from mentors and mentees. Can be repli
cated on large
-
scale cost
-
effectively (Hussain et al, 2007).

-

Evaluating teacher in
-
service training in Namibia, O’Sullivan (2001) found that success came
from school
-
focused programmes based on teachers’ needs, related to classroom realities. The series of

courses offered were planned and formal in nature, and offered supervision and follow up as teachers
tried out their new skills.


The evidence base is assessed as
Low.


Option 4
.
This

proposes an unspecified mix of alternative inve
stment in girls bursarie
s (see Option 2
)


and social cash transfers to households via the existing Child Protection Fund instrument.


No attempt has been made to summarise the evidence base on general conditional / non conditional
cash transfer which is already extensive in MICs

(especially Latin America) and rapidly growing in Africa.
(see Child Protection Fund NCSSPP Technical Appraisal, DFID Zimbabwe, Dec. 2010).


There is a clear
dilution of impact in this context on education participation and learning outcomes as the
cash transfer scheme is
general and not specific or conditional to education
. In contrast the purpose of
this
investme
nt is specific for education.
A major World B
ank meta
-
synthesis review report on
conditional cash transfers finds that overall there is evidence of impact on increased school attendance,
but
that they have little impact
on improved learning outcomes

which require

supply side interventions in
tandem
.

21



So t
he evidence base is assessed as
Low


A
summary of the evidence base

around feasible options in this business case is in the table below:

Option

Evidence rating

1

-

ETF
-
II, school grants and other
reforms

Medium


2

-

Keeping Girls in School

Medium


3

-

Teacher Upgrading

Low


4

-

Alternative Social Cash Transfers

Low



What is the likely impact (positive and negative) on climate change and environment for each
feasible option?


Overall, the intervention poses no direct risk to the environment and climate change. However, there are
more potential opportunities on natural resource use and climate change issues that can be exploited
with the intervention. Most of the Sub
-
Saharan eco
nomies, like Zimbabwe, significantly rely on
agriculture which is also a major source of livelihoods for
the
majority of the rural populations. Women
make up 70% of the agricultural workforce in most of Sub
-
Saharan Africa. It means therefore that the
economy and livelihoods of the majority of people, especially women, is quite vulnerable to weather
shocks (droughts and floods) which are currently on the increase as a result of climate change.


Poverty is the prime cause for the widespread environmental

damage and natural resource degradation
in Zimbabwe and most parts of the sub
-
Saharan Africa. Of course institutional and market failure
plays
an integral part in the poverty
-
environmental degradation nexus
22
.

Rapid deforestation is associated with
increas
ing vulnerability to floods, reduced agricultural production and increased levels of water
-
borne
diseases
23
.


Educating girls and women and therefore empowering them in sound decision making is an important
strategy bearing in mind they are main users of na
tural resources and the most affected with climate
change. There is evidence that gender inequality increases the vulnerability and reduces the capacity of
women and girls to reduce and respond to the impact of disasters aggravated by climate change
24
.
Drou
ght, deforestation, and land degradation increase women’s’ workload (women walk long distances
to fetch water, food and firewood), and the need for girls’ to contribute to household income and
domestic work. These pressures make it difficult for them to re
main in school both during, and after a
crisis, negatively impacting on the rest of their lives.


Therefore interventions that help girls to remain in school and strategies to strengthen education systems
including development of a strong curriculum and
improve skills of teachers will help empower women
with access to information and knowledge increases. Lack of access to information and knowledge has


been blamed for increasing women’s vulnerability. While women’s vulnerability to disasters is often
highl
ighted, their role in building resilience has usually been overlooked. Evidence is emerging that
suggests that educating women and girls is a cost effective means of reducing environmental
degradation through its impacts on reducing fertility rates, popula
tion pressure and poverty
25
. Recent
studies conducted by the World Bank
26

and the Centre for Global Development
27

have found that
educating girls and women is one of the best ways of ensuring that communities are better able to adapt
to extreme weather event
s and climate change.


Educating women is one of the ‘best climate change disaster prevention investments’ because more
educated women are better able to adapt their homes and livelihoods to climate extremes.
28

Further,
educated girls and women tend to ear
n higher income levels, which helps them cope with the impact of
disasters and climate change. Educated women help communities and societies become healthier,
wealthier and safer, and help to reduce child mortality, improve maternal health and tackle the s
pread of
HIV and AIDS.

This intervention also offers opportunity to integrate/ or strengthen the curriculum with
relevant information on environmental, natural resource management and current issues on climate
change.


C
ategorise as A, high

potential

ris
k / opportunity; B, medium
/ manageable potential
risk / opportunity; C,
low

/ no
risk / opportunity; or D, core
contribution

to a multilateral organisation.

Option

Climate change and environment risks
and impacts, Category (A, B, C, D)

Climate change and
environment
opportunities, Category (A, B, C, D)

1

C

B

2

C

B

3

C

B

4

C

C


C.
What are the costs and benefits of each feasible option?


Four options have been presented as both addressing important system needs for Zimbabwe
and

being
consistent with DFID s
trategy and approach. They are:

1


Support the UNICEF
-
managed ETF II pooled fund

2
Support for girls’ education through
a non
-
state actor

3
Support, through a separate management mechanism, MoESAC commitment to up
-
grade its
large
numbers of unqualified teachers

4
Cash transfers to support girls and OVCs through the UNICEF managed Child Protection
Fund/BEAM


The approach taken in all four options is to estimate benefits in terms of the private returns to education
from increa
sed earnings in employment for each successive year of primary and secondary education,
drawing on

the evidence base outlined in A
nnex 2, the Economic Appraisal Background Paper. From the
evidence base, average private returns for each additional year of e
ducation are estimated to increase
by 15% per year for primary education and 25% per year for secondary education.


A discount rate of 10% was utilised throughout the analysis. This is the rate used for all cost benefit
analysis undertaken by DFID Zimbabw
e. In all of the options the costs last for the duration of the
programme i.e. 2011
-
2015, duration of expected benefits

is modelled to last for 38 years from leaving
school based on a life expectancy of 48 years
29
.
It is standard practice to assume long ter
m economic
benefits in education projects with the Global Girls Education Challenge Fund assuming benefits lasting
for 35 years.

The

attribution of benefits across the programme provides a further issue
. The returns to education cited
in

A
nnex
2

are based on the education sector as a whole rather than its components, while the four
different options are targeted at different parts of the education sector. It is difficult to estimate benefits
based on an intervention that targets only part of the
education system. The approach taken is to
apportion the benefits that are expected to accrue to each intervention on a percentage basis, us
ing the
evidence base again of A
nnex
2.

The benefits are apportioned as follows
:





The school grants programme will ad
dress the current acute lack of funding for school running
costs and teaching and learning materials. It is therefore
estimated
that 25% of the calculated
increased earnings by beneficiaries will accrue to this component.



The teacher training programme wil
l be reinforced by a new curriculum and by improved
management at national, provincial and district level as well as in
individual
schools. This
produces a stronger base for a successful impact from teacher training.
It is therefore also
expected that 25%
of the calculated increased earnings by beneficiaries will accrue to this
component.



The technical education component will provide training to out
-
of
-
school youth who have been
lost to the education system. It is therefore expected that a relatively high
25% of the calculated
increased earnings by beneficiaries will accrue to this component.



The return to mainstream will similarly target youth that have been lost to the education system
and so the accrued benefit is also estimated at 25%.



For all other ETF

II components a further 10% return is accrued to all school pupils as
beneficiaries, this lower return recognising that other components are systemic in nature and
focused on building capacity in the education system as a whole.

As the benefits are calcul
ated in terms of the additional private returns to education through increased
earnings, the beneficiaries across all four options are taken to be the pupils graduating from each year of
the school system. These beneficiaries include pupils leaving or drop
ping out of school before the grade
of completion for primary and secondary education. Projected pupil numbers for each year of the four
options are taken from the projections made for the draft Education Medium Term Plan (EMTP) 2011
-
15,
which covers the s
ame period as the proposed DFID intervention for each of the four options.


Costs as reported in the appraisal include both the direct cost of the programme and the
opportunity cost of children attending school based on an assumption that a child who does
not
attend school earns $100 a year.

These options

are now considered in turn (
Annex 2
, the
Economic Appraisal Background Paper

to this Business Case
has
more details of the cost
benefit analysis and a substantial literature review of the latest evidence o
n economic and social
returns
to investments in education in developing countries
)
.

Option 1: Support the ETF II pooled fund

ETF II will support the following key activities:



The finalisation of a national sector planning framework for education, with cor
responding
provincial and district level plans, directed by the Ministry of Education, Sport, Arts and Culture;



The development of a national school grants initiative, delivering critical investment (including
WASH) at school level, to assist in the reduct
ion of financial barriers to education for both boys
and girls;



In
-
service training of at least 100,000 teachers in modern pedagogical and subject based skills,
with a focus on

improving the basic teaching skills of at least 10,000 unqualified teachers;



Training of at least 300 key Ministry personnel at the national, provincial and district level, as well
as some 8,000 school heads to strengthen their system management capacities related to
planning, implementation, supervision and monitoring, linked to p
riorities outlined in the
emerging 5 Year Strategic Plan;



The development of a fully revised, modern, market oriented and culturally appropriate curriculum
framework, with corresponding tested syllabi for all ECD, primary and secondary levels;



Development
of a second chance education programme, providing alternative learning
opportunities for at least 200,000 young people, with the aim of returning at least 100,000 school
learners to mainstream education.



The benefits accruing to the ETF II pooled fund prog
ramme are estimated on the basis that it is a multi
-
faceted intervention targeted at the education system as a whole. It is expected that a high proportion of
the private returns to improved education will accrue to the beneficiaries through improved educa
tional
attainment.

As noted above, t
he proportion of benefits from improved private returns to education is not assumed to
exceed 25% for any of the ETF II components. The rationale for this decision is that the programme is a
supporting intervention to th
e MOESAC EMTP, which provides most of the monetary and human
resources in the education system. Most benefits will therefore accrue to the strengthened and refocused
activities of MOESAC guided by the EMTP.

Summary of ETF II cost
-
benefit analysis results

Total discounted benefits

$10 704 075 723

Total discounted cost ETF II programme

$1 506 248 981
30


Net Present Value

$9 197 826 741

Benefit
-

Cost Ratio

7
.1


The ETF II CBA demonstrates results of both the high private returns to education as well as
the benefits
of a multi
-
faceted sector wide approa
ch. It gives a high BCR of 7
.
1
.

The table below gives a sensitivity analysis on some of the key variables in the CBA.

Sensitivity analysis on the ETF II CBA


BCR

Central Scenario

7
.1

Assume only 20% of
core programme benefits attributable to ETF II programme

6
.
0

Assume a higher discount rate of 12%

5
.
6

Assume lower annual earnings differential rate of 10% and 20% for primary and secondary
respectively

5
.3
.

The sensitivity analysis shows that the BCA
remain
s

favourable under all cases. The highest potential
impact is at a significantly lower estimated private return to education, which nevertheless still gives a
high BCR of 5
.
3. Drastically lowering the number of years over which the project will reali
se benefits to
10 years lowers the NPV to a still hi
ghly favourable $3,788,837,380.

Option 2: Support for girls’ education

through a non
-
state actor

The second option is for DFID

to

support girls’ education through the provision
via an NGO
of bursaries
to
girls to ensure their participation in secondary schooling. DFID will provide £12 million over the four
year period, 2011
-
2015.


Bursaries to girls are calculated at a level of US$100 per girl, the same level as the ongoing BEAM
programme targeting OVCs.
Bursaries will be given to girls in secondary school in Forms 1 to 4, with the
programme starting in Form 1 in 2011 and adding an additional form each year. There is therefore an
implied commitment to ongoing funding after 2015 for bursaries for selected g
irls that start in Form 1 in
that year. The table below sets out both the 2011
-
15 funding
, number of girls in the scheme

as well as
the expected ongoing commitment.


Girls’ education budget and implied ongoing commitment US$ million


Girls’ education progr
amme

Implied ongoing commitment


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cost

$1.3

$2.5

$3.6

$4.8

$5.8

$4.1

$2.6

$1.2

$0.9

No girls

12 800

24 854

36 372

47 545

58 266

40 783

25 652

12 356

928




The benefits accruing to the girls’ education programme are estimated on the basis that it is a strategy to
increase the participation of girls in secondary education. It is therefore a supportive intervention to the
MOESAC EMTP which aims to strengthen th
e education system as a whole.

It is expected a high proportion of the private returns to education will accrue to the beneficiaries through
improved educational attainment. It is assumed that 25% of the calculated increased earnings by
beneficiaries will

accrue to the girls’ education programme. The remaining private benefits will therefore
accrue to the strengthened and refocused activities of MOESAC guided by the EMTP.

There

is an important assumption of

the girls’ education programme: that t
he expected

benefits accruing
to the intervention are predicated upon the successful implementation of the MOESAC EMTP and hence
on increased participation by girls in a secondary education system that is being strengthened by other
supporting interventions.

Summary
of girls’ education programme cost
-
benefit analysis results


Total discounted benefits

$586 183 326

Total discounted cost ETF II programme

$72 815 562

Net Present Value

$513 367 763

Benefit
-

Cost Ratio

8
.
0


The girls’ education CBA demonstrates the

high private returns to education for girls that was noted in
the previous section. It gives a high BCR of 8
.
0
.

The table below gives a sensitivity analysis on some of the key variables in the CBA.

Sensitivity analysis on the girls’ education CBA


BCR

Central Scenario

8
.0

Assume only 20% of core programme benefits attributable to girls bursaries programme

6
.
4

Assume a higher discount rate of 12%

6
.
7

Assume lower annual earnings differential rate of 10% and 20% for primary and
secondary respectively

6
.
1


The sensitivity analysis shows that the BCA remain
s

favourable under all cases. The highest potential
impact is through a significantly lower estimated private return to education, which nevertheless still gives
a high BCR of 6
.
1. Reducing the number
of years over which the project will deliver benefits to 10 years
lowers the NPV to a still highly favourable $195,85
0,567.

Option 3: Support to MOESAC to upgrade teacher qualifications

The third option is for DFID support to MOESAC to upgrade the large nu
mbers of unqualified and under
qualified teachers. DFID could provide funding to cover the gap between the present term
-
time only pay
and annual pay of temporary teachers, linked to a major upgrading programme. During vacation time
residential and self st
udy courses would be followed, linked to school based mentoring and pedagogic
practice in term time.

For the purposes of this option it assumed that the teaching quality component of
the ETF II would be fully funded by DFID and focused entirely on the upgr
ading of the targeted teachers.
The table below sets out the costs of the option.


Teacher upgrading programme costs




2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

ETF II teaching quality component

$360 000

$4 200 000

$4 000 000

$4 000 000

$4 000 000

Expected benefits

The
teacher upgrading option

would be targeted at between 14,000 and 18
,000 temporary teachers

per
year

to provide them with good quality training to ensure appropriate certification and full incorporation
into the teaching cadre. This would involve MoESAC in
the creation of appropriate programmes which
took account of the prior experience of the students and operated in a part
-
study/part
-
work mode with
distance or e
-
learning elements.


Based on the target of MOESAC’s EMTP to reduce the proportion of temporary
teachers to 10% of the
teaching cadre by 2015, the temporary teachers set out in the table below would be expected to receive
training.


Number of temporary teachers to be targeted for upgrading


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Primary temporary teachers

12 424

11 990

11 524

10 977

10 338

Secondary temporary teachers

6 120

5 554

4 964

4 397

3 799

Total temporary teachers

18 544

17 544

16 488

15 374

14 137


In the same manner as for the other options, a monetary value of the benefit cannot be assigned.
Monetary

benefits are estimated through the increased private returns to education as a whole.

Balance of costs and benefits


The benefits accruing to the girls’ education programme are estimated on the basis of a far lower level of
funding for the ETF II. In this

event DFID and other bilateral donors would target with discrete area
-
specific interventions to support the MOESAC EMTP. Option 3 is highlighted as one of the most likely
interventions given the EMTP priorities.

In this event however it is likely that the

sector wide approach implicit in ETF II will not be providing the
level of support anticipated to the education system. Given the limited domestic funding for education,
there is likely to be insufficient support for the necessary systemic improvements to

reinforce teacher
training.

The appraisal of the feasible options in the business case also highlights that investment in attempting to
enhance the skill
-
sets and performance of teachers in sub
-
Saharan African countries, and elsewhere,
has often produced
unconvincing outcomes due to:



The very large numbers of teachers in the system



Failure in the training processes to diagnose the needs of individual teachers



Failure to follow through training inputs in the context in which all change must occur


the
classroom of the individual teacher



Failure to provide useful support mechanisms at the school/classroom levels



Low ability to motivate teachers without reasonable salary and conditions of service, regardless of
individual skills, training and aptitude
31
.


With the anticipated under
-
funding of ETF II that this option entails it is highly unlikely that this necessary
support for effective teacher upgrading will be funded at adequate levels.

Based on both this under
-
funding and the poor evidence for the succes
s of teacher upgrading without
follow up and support in the classroom, it is expected that a low proportion of the private returns to
improved education will accrue to the beneficiaries through improved educational attainment. It is
therefore
assumed that
only 10% of the calculated increased earnings by beneficiaries will accrue to the
teacher upgrading programme.





Summary of teacher upgrading programme cost
-
benefit analysis results


Total discounted benefits

$1 737 421 061

Total discounted cost ETF II
programme

$887 424 880

Net Present Value

$849 996 181

Benefit
-

Cost Ratio

1
.
9


The teacher upgrading CBA demonstrates the low private returns to education supported by the poor
evidence base and by the need for teacher training and upgrading to be
part of overall strengthening of
the education system. It gives a lower BCR of 1
.9
.
The table below gives a sensitivity analysis on some
of the key variables in the CBA.


Sensitivity analysis on the teacher upgrading CBA



BCR

Central Scenario

1
.
9

Assume

only 5% of core programme benefits attributable to teacher training

0.
9

Assume a higher discount rate of 12%

1
.
5

Assume lower annual earnings differential rate of 10% and 20% for primary and secondary
respectively

1
.
4


The sensitivity analysis shows
that the BCA is sign
ificantly lower under all cases
. Reducing the number
of years over which the project will deliver benefits to 10 years lowe
rs the NPV to minus $30,456,682.

Option 4: Cash transfers to support girls and OVCs

In option 4 DFID would increa
se its financial contributions to the Child Protection Fund (CPF) earmarking
funds to two of its components as follows:

1)

Social Cash Transfers to labour constrained 'ultra
-
poor' households

2)

School fee, levy and exam payments for OVCs through the national
government Basic Education
Assistance Module (BEAM) social protection system.

DFID
’s

£20m existing contribution to the CPF was agreed early in 2011 (known as the National Child
Sensitive Protection Programme: NCSSPP) and seeks to support the government's National Action Plan
for OVCs (2011
-
15) in the creation of a new national household b
ased Social Cash Transfer scheme as
its major initiative. BEAM funding for primary students is also included for the Year 2011.
Q
uestion
marks exist over the efficiency of BEAM's targeting strategy;
but it was

already supporting an estimated
680,000 prim
ary and secondary students in 2010.


Diverting the entire £32m of
funds
earmarked
in the DFID Operational Plan for Zimbabwe
into up
-
scaling
the cash transfer scheme and continuing BEAM support up to 2012 and beyond is a viable alternative
with a programme
management structure via UNICEF and agreement already in place. This would also
reduce the programmatic overhead to DFID Zimbabwe associated with management and oversight.


The benefits accruing to the fourth option are adjusted slightly from the economic

analysis undertaken for
DFID support to the CPF in 2010
32

and are summarised in the table below.






Summary of child protection services, cash transfers and BEAM cost
-
benefit analysis results


Costs and benefits ($)

BCR

NPV

Cash transfer

Incremental
discounted benefit


$179 065

826

1
.
1

$16 192 741

Incremental discounted cost

$162 873 085

Child protection services

Incremental discounted benefit








1
.4







$128 716 411


GBV services


$163 097 905


Justice for children

$15 607 815

Net discounted cost (direct)



Direct cost

$46 239 310


Opportunity cost

$3 750 000

BEAM

Net discounted benefit

$1 334 044 655





3
.
7





$282 348 867

Net discounted cost



Direct cost

$15 218 000

Opportunity cost

$1 036 477 788


The CBA for DFID funding of the CPF demonstrates high returns to cash transfer schemes with a BCR of
1
.
1
and 1.4 for child protection services

and high returns to
BEAM

with a BCR of 3
.
7
. Sensitivity analysis
was not undertaken as part of the economic analy
sis for DFID funding of the CPF.

4.

Identification of the Preferred Option

DFID commitment to supporting both a quality enhancement objective and an access for girls/OVCs
objective

can be addressed in more than one way. The table below illustrates the more

likely
permutations:

Permutation

Justification

Management
Options

(1)+ (2
)

Through school grants and other complementary inputs
under ETF II addresses quality enhancement objective;
meets issue of retaining girls through secondary school

ETF II: UNICEF

Girls:
CAMFED

(2
)
+ (3
)

Addresses the core challenge of providing schools with
better teachers; meets issue of retaining girls through
secondary school

Teachers:
Management
agent

Girls:
CAMFED

(1)+ (3
)

Through school grants and other complementary inputs
under ETF II addresses quality enhancement objective;
BEAM meets issue of retaining OVCs and girls in
secondary school.

ETF II: UNICEF

CPF: UNICEF

(4
)

Cash transfers stimulates education access and dem
and
for OVCs. Meets issue of retaining OVCs in education
and girls in secondary school

CPF: UNICEF


The fi
rst permutation listed above: (1) and (2
) is the preferred overall option
:

Option 1:
ETF pooled fund
: To contribute up to £6 million per annum from
2012
-
2015 to the second


phase of the Education Transition Fund, ETFII

Option 2:
Girls Education
: Support Disadvantaged Girls to Complete Four Years of Secondary
Education

The key factors in coming to this recommendation are as follows:

Political / Institut
ional

DFID would be highly vulnerable to reputational risk from the UK public, government and other
development partners if it did not support education in Zimbabwe.

The ETF has established a strong and credible 'brand' and modus operandi to support
Zimbabwe's
fragile recovery in a politically uncertain and constrained environment
1
. It also aligns with the
Government
of Zimbabwe’s
medium term sector strategy, and provides an instrument that can rapidly
expand in the case of a positive political sett
lement.

Secondary girls’ education bursaries are universally popular, building on existing established schemes
and will give space for the government BEAM programme of support for OVCs to evolve.

Evidence Base

Medium

overall for the programme proposed for
the ETF, a focus on per capita school finance has
considerable merit given its likely impact on user fees and access for the poor. There is need to
recognise that education is multi
-
facted and a programme of support that shadows the sector plan
cannot 'che
rry pick' only the high impact activities.

Medium


for secondary girls' education, with plenty of international and domestic evidence to draw upon.

Evidence for targeting resources only for teacher upgrading or cash transfers and school fee payments is
no
t as strong, prone to being undermined by low teacher remuneration that de
-
motivates performance
and cash transfers that do not promote education quality improvements.

Economic

From the cost
-
benefit analysis of the previous section Option 3 teacher upgradi
ng is rejected on the
basis of the low returns to stand
-
alone teacher training programmes outside complementary education
system support. Option 1 Support to the ETF II and Option 2 Support to Girls’ Education both
demonstrate high returns, especially in t
he case of support to girls’ education, in line with the evidence
base of the earlier section. Option 4 Support to the CPF overall demonstrates a similar retur
n to support
to the ETF II. But it and the ‘do nothing’ O
ption
5
suffers from reputational risk t
o DFID from withdrawal of
support to education in Zimbabwe.

The permutation of
Options 1

(
Support to ETF II
)

and
Option 2

(
Support to Girls’ Education
)

is therefore recommended for funding by DFID.

Commercial / Management

UNICEF offers a strong and trusted

partner in country to manage major donor pooled funds instruments
at a reasonable overhead rate (7%) in a c
omplex operating environment. CAMFED is a well
-
established
partner

that can be anticipated to quickly and efficiently manage a
scaled
-
up
programme o
f girls
education bursaries. The ETF
-
2 design does

not propose girls scholarships and

routing all sector
support via a sole impl
ementing partner creates risks

which having a second strand to the programme
helps mitigate.



D.
What m
easures
can
be used to assess
V
alue for
M
oney

for the intervention
?

The recommendation for DFID funding of
Option 1
: ETF II pooled fund and
Option 2
: Girls Education
forms a multi
-
faceted sector wide approach to strengthening the education system, guided by MOESAC
and

the reform process that it has instituted through the EMTP. Value for Money (VfM) indicators







therefore need to reflect the depth of this combined intervention. The recommended VfM measures
described below before being set out in the following table.

i.

Tota
l cost per pupil
. To assess cost effectiveness and the prospects of programme objectives
being achieved, MOESAC costs need to be included. This VfM measure gives the cost per pupil
within the education system for comparison against other African countries
and international
benchmarks. It should be calculated as the cost per pupil under the two MOESAC cost centres
(effectively programmes) of primary and secondary education.

ii.

Total cost of delivering p
er capita grant expenditure per pupil per year
.
The school
grants
programme is one of the most important interventions to cover school running costs and ensure
teaching and learning materials are in the classroom. Actual disbursed grants should be
monitored at primary and secondary level and by school category (u
rban low density, urban high
density, rural) to both compare with international targets for per pupil funding and to assess VfM
in improving equity in the education system. An overall target of US
$10

per capita funding per
pupil in both primary and seconda
ry schools by 2015 is included in the EMTP. Once the school
grants programme is designed this target is likely to be sub
-
divided to direct finance to schools in
greater need.

iii.

Textbook unit costs
. ETF I achieved a notable success in reducing average textboo
k unit costs to
US$1.00 in primary schools and US$2.00 in secondary schools, including distribution. School
teaching and learning materials will continue to be provided u
nder ETF II and this unit cost w
ould
continue to be monitored for efficiency gains.

iv.

Te
acher training costs
. The teacher quality component of ETF II will focus on teacher skills
development and upgrading. At present unit costs are not known in this area. It will be important
to set targets for training costs per teacher for the different ele
ments of the training programme as
a benchmark against which VfM performance can be assessed.

v.

Girl bursary costs
. An average bursary figure of US$100 per girl per year has been used in the
CBA which is the figure used to support OVCs under BEAM. The CAMFED

unit cost in seconda
ry
school is far higher at US$22
7 per pupil per year

over a four
-
year period,

but this
provides a much
more comprehensive package of support

which highlights
the need for caution when using
unit
cost comparisons even within the same co
untry.

Bursary costs per girl per year will form a key
VfM monitoring indicator against the tendered cost.

In considering this
the local unit costs of the
different component parts of the bursary (for example clothing and stationery costs)

will be taken
a
ccount of.

vi.

Cost per teacher upgraded and appointed to a school post
.
This will measure the overall
efficiency of the sector in terms of cost of appointing newly trained teachers to their post.

vii.

Cost per girl completing secondary school
. The focus of the gir
ls’ bursary programme will be
bringing and retaining girls in secondary school Forms 1 to 4. Although not entirely wasted,
expenditure on girls who drop out or repeat years is much less cost
-
effective in generating
benefits. Ability to calculate this measu
re depends on availability of grade specific repetition and
drop out data. It is more of a long term indicator, but should be assessed at the baseline, and
evaluated at completion.

CAMFED currently claim a higher than 90% retention rate (girls
completing
all four of Forms 1 to 4) for
girls receiving bursaries.

Recommended Value for Money Indicators

No

Indicator

Definition

The 3e’s

Source of data

Baseline

1

Total Cost
per pupil
33

MOESAC total expenditure on
primary and secondary
education per pupil

Economy

MOESAC
expenditure data and
EMIS figures

Primary US$76 and
Secondary US$118 per
pupil in 2010

2

Total cost
of
delivering
p
er capita
grant
s

per
Total
expenditure per pupil

(including overheads)

under the
school grants programme, both
while funded under ETF II and
once partially transferred to
Economy
.

ETF and MOESAC
expenditure data and
EMIS figures

Initial EMTP target for per
capita funding is U
S10 per
pupil by 2015 but targets
will be set by school level
and category



year

MOESAC. Monitored by school
level and category.

3

Textbook
unit costs

Average costs per school
textbook including delivery

Economy


UNICEF expenditure
and ETF monitoring
data

US$1.00 and US2.00 per
primary and secondary
textboo
k respectively in
2010

4

Teacher
training
costs

Average cost per teacher for
the delivery of training

Economy


UNICEF expenditure
and ETF monitoring
data

No baseline at present

5

Girl
bursary
costs

Average cost of a bursary per
girl per year

Economy

expenditure and
programme
monitoring data

from
implementing partner

No baseline at present but
BEAM cost of US$100
used in calculating
programme costs

6

Cost per
teacher
upgraded
and
appointed
to a school
post

Average cost of upgrading
teacher and
allocating them to
a post

Efficiency

ETF and MOESAC
expenditure data and
EMIS figures

No baseline at present

7

Cost per
girl
completing
secondary
school

Cost per girl who completes
Form 4 under the bursary
programme

Effective
ness


expenditure and
programm
e
monitoring data

from
CAMFED

$257

cost of CAMFED
programme

for 2012
-
2015



E.
Summary
V
alue for
M
oney
S
tatement

for the preferred option

Cost
-
benefit analysis was conducted based on the evidence of high private returns to education in the
form of increased earnings from each additional year of education. Using plausible assumptions based
on the available research and apportioning the level
of expected benefits from the benefit
-
cost ratio
(BCR) we found that both
Option 1 (Support to the ETF II) and Option 2 (Support to Girls’ Education)
demonstrate

good Value for Money, with BCRs of 7
.
1

and

8
.
0 respectively.

This aligns with the

medium
evid
ence base

for these options.

A series of less quantifiable additional benefits

and spin offs are also
expected, including impacts on health, fertility, and social cohesion. Economic returns and development
benefits are especially evident for girls’ educat
ion.

Input unit costs will be closely monitored and where
possible driven down, for example on annual per child capita grants and girls bursaries.


Commercial Case



Clearly state

the procurement/commercial
requirements for intervention

DFID Procurement

Department has advised that the
two components of the
preferred option

could be
procured through indirect procurement through (i)
-

an MOU with UNICEF for the E
TF
-
II contribution
and (ii) an Accountable G
rant arrangement for girls education.

For the UNIC
EF contract, DFID would
need to be assured that the proposed evaluation processes (which are comprehensive), report
independently and in sufficient detail. For the accountable grant, DFID Zimbabwe would source an
independent evaluation function through a f
ramework arrangement with the DFID Human
Development Resource Centre or similar provider.


Indirect procurement

A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of a
rrangement

the right one for this
intervention, with this development partner?


(i)

Support

to the Education Transition Fund II (ETF II)

The programme of support to ETF II is a direct follow
-
up to two earlier contributions of

support to


ETF's first phase.
DFID
’s

contribution to ETF II would be to a pooled fund with
contributions from at
least fi
ve

other donors. The management agency for ETF I was UNICEF Zimbabwe, with whom an
MOU covering what was identified as a Contribution Agreement was concluded. The Contribution
was to be used exclusively for the stated purposes of the ETF, with co
-
mingling
of DFID contributions
with other donor contributions being allowed. It is anticipated that the form of the agreement for
contributions to ETF II will be identical, aligning with similar DFID/UNICEF contribution agreements in
Zimbabwe and further afield. T
here will be standard requirements for joint annual reporting and
oversight to minimise transaction overheads to all parties.


(ii)


Supporting Girls to Complete Four Grades of Secondary Education

The programme would be funded through an
Accountable G
rant

to
CAMFED which has developed a
strong
track
-
record in this field

in Zimbabwe since 1993
. It

is the only organisation who can deliver on
the scale and timeframes envisaged
.
Other options

for example opening it to competitive tender
-

were considered.
And a

consortium made up of three other NGOs also submitted a concept note

earlier in the year
, but its focus was significantly different and engaging in this area of work in
Zimbabwe would be a new departure for them. So g
iven the nature of the support envisaged and the
importance of having well
-
established working relationships at a national (CAMFED
signed a 10
-
year

MoU with MoESAC

in 2009
) and community level, there is currently no viable alternative

to
CAMFED
.
Efforts to

find unit costs for similar schemes in other countries operated by other
organisations which could meaningfully be compared to the Zimbabwe context were unsuccessful.
It
was therefore felt that the time and costs
(at least six months and many weeks of sta
ff time)
involved
in a full competitive tender
were not
justified and would not lead to
any net savings
.


The Accountable G
rant will be based on a detailed annual work plan, budget and key performance
indicators.
It will
provide

an effective means of reduc
ing the management burden to DFID that would
be imposed through the use of commercial contracts. This approach is in line with DFID Procurement
Group and 'Commercial Case How To' Guidance. DFID will:



Negotiate on the budget proposal to seek savings on prog
ramme management costs in order to
try and increase the number of bursaries provided;



Review the programme budget annually to monitor effic
iency and identify cost savings;



Track progress and budget execution through quarterly narrative and financial report
s and
quarterly upda
te meetings with
CAMFED
;



Review the procurement and sub
-
contracting processes of
CAMFED
to ensure t
hat sub
-
contractors provide VFM; and



Conduct formal annual reviews to monitor progress, efficiency and VFM

B.
Value for money through
procurement


UNICEF has the technical and commercial capacity to offer sustainable quality which represents
VFM throughout the life of the programme. It has an established office in Harare with management,
financ
ial and administrative staff.
It has demons
trated in its management of ETF I and parallel health
and social protection programmes its capacity to manage a programme of this scale.

During ETF I

UNICEF established a very strong track re
cord on procurement of supplies by driving

down prices for
primar
y school books

from $5 to $1 per book and
delivered
cost savings of around of £8m that
enable a major increase in the scope and impact of DFID's funds.

It will be necessary to keep under
discussion the UNICEF overhead management with other donor partners
and UNICEF. UNICEF has
proposed a 7% fee, in line with central UNICEF requ
irements for Headquarters

cost recovery
.


For girls secondary education, DFID will

work

with CAMFED to
:



Ensure that
the service delivered is
fit for purpose
;



Ensure that
CAMFED
has
an efficiency savings delivery plan for year on year cost savings and
will monitor cost savings through quarterl
y reporting and update meetings;



Ensure procurement of goods within the programme delivers value for money;



Negotiate management charges as part

of programme budget negotiations to ensure these
charges are set at an appropriate level to deliver progr
ammes in the Zimbabwean context;



Agree and monitor a risk strategy, which sets out specific responsibilities of DFID,
CAMFED

and


any
sub
-
contractors f
or managing and mitigating risk;



Ensure that
CAMFED’s
corporate social responsibility reflects international good practice in terms
of commitment to diversity, sustainability and anti
-
corruption.


Financial Case

A.
What are the
cost
s, how are they
profiled and how will you ensure accurate
forecasting?

The total budget estimate for ETF II over the five
-
year period 2011
-
2015 is US$85
.7 million.
The budget is broken down as follows
34
:

ETF 5 YEAR BUDGET
Programme/Activity
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total 5 Years
1. School and System Governance
1,025,000
8,755,000
14,890,000
11,420,000
3,770,000
39,860,000
1.1
Sector Wide Programming
335,000
255,000
90,000
70,000
20,000
770,000
1.2
School Improvement
390,000
7,000,000
13,550,000
10,750,000
3,750,000
35,440,000
1.3
School Monitoring, Supervision and Support
300,000
1,500,000
1,250,000
600,000
0
3,650,000
2. Teaching and Learning
660,000
12,470,000
7,290,000
5,025,000
4,465,000
29,910,000
2.1
Teaching Quality
360,000
4,200,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
16,560,000
2.2
Learning Outcomes
250,000
1,010,000
650,000
625,000
465,000
3,000,000
2.3
Purchase and delivery of Teaching and Learning Materials**
0
7,150,000
2,600,000
400,000
0
10,150,000
2.4
Assessment***
50,000
110,000
40,000
0
0
200,000
3. Second Chance Education
435,000
1,640,000
1,650,000
1,100,000
800,000
5,625,000
3.1
Policy Sector Analysis
135,000
0
0
0
0
135,000
3.2
Return to Mainstream Education
0
840,000
850,000
500,000
300,000
2,490,000
3.3
Out-of-school Technical Education
300,000
800,000
800,000
600,000
500,000
3,000,000
4. Monitoring & Evaluation
0
175,000
200,000
125,000
100,000
600,000
4.1
Annual Reviews and programme planning missions
25,000
25,000
50,000
4.2
MidTerm evaluation
100,000
100,000
4.3
End of Programme Evaluaton
100,000
100,000
4.4
Independent Research and Evaluation
150,000
100,000
100,000
350,000
5. Other Programme Related support Costs
158,500
1,257,000
1,306,500
936,000
509,250
4,167,250
5.1
Communication and Visibility costs
50,000
100,000
100,000
50,000
50,000
350,000
5.2
108,500
1,157,000
1,206,500
886,000
459,250
3,817,250
Total programmable 5 year budget
80,162,250
UNICEF Headquarters Global recovery cost (7%)
5,611,358
Grand Total Cost
85,773,608
** All logistics costs included in total stated amount.
*** Cost of training teachers in classroom based formative assessment skills is included in costs identified in activity 2.1.4 in above budget outline.
#
Technical expertise, Direct Programme Management costs, Operational support costs are 5% of program costs. The amount will vary depending on total PBA amount received.
Technical expertise, Direct Programme Management costs,
Operational support costs#


DFID’s contribution to ETF II will be £24 million over the four years 2012
-
2015, or approximately 45%
of the overall ETF II budget. Other donors who have committed or pledged fund are the EC,
Germany, Finland, Sweden

and OSISA.

A
n additional $23.6 million
of resources
is potentially
available
to Zimbabwe through
the Gl
obal Partnership for Education and some of it could be
channelled through ETF II.


DFID will provide £12 million over the same four year period, 2012
-
2015 for the provision of bursaries
to gi
rls to ensure their participation in secondary schooling.
The cost of additional external
monitoring and evaluation in order to meet DFID’s requirements for independent evaluation
of both
components of the programme
is estimated at £0.5m over four years.

B.
How
will
it
be funded
: capital
/
programme
/admin
?


The programme will be wholly funded from programme resources which have been budgeted for in
DFID Zimbabwe’s Operational plan (2011
-
2015). There are no contingent or actual liabilities.

C. How
will funds
be
paid out
?

A Memorandum of Understanding will be signed between DFID and UNICEF which will govern
DFID’s contribution to the Education Transition Fund. This will include the planned schedule of
payments as well as reporting and auditing requir
ements. The DFID contribution will be un
-
earmarked and co
-
mingled with funds from other donors. It is suggested that six bi
-
annual tranches
of funds will be transferred, aligned with annual joint supervision missions and the provision of costed
annual wor
k plans. Transfers are likely to be made in the January


March and July


September
quarters. The size of the tranches will be determined by need.




An Accountable Grant Agreement (AGA) will be signed
with CAMFED
for the delivery of the scheme
for girls’ b
ursaries. Payments will be made over a
four
-
year period in accordance with the
arrangements in the AGA.


D.

What is the assessment of financial risk

and fraud
?

The financial risks are considered to be small, with the funds only being channelled through
re
cognised partners with approved financial management and audit systems.
CAMFED is an
established DFID partner implementing programmes in a number of other countries
in Africa
and also
in Zimbabwe with a £500,000 grant from
the Civil Society Challenge Fund
managed by DFID’s
Civil
Society Department
.


E
.
How
will expenditure
be monitored, reported, and accounted for
?

Programme Managers and their teams will ensure rigorous forecasting, monitoring and accounting of
expenditure using DFID financial management s
ystems (ARIES).



For the ETF component of the programme, the MOU will govern the disbursement and accounting for
funds. UNICEF will provide the ETF Steering Committee with semi
-
annual financial reports (for July
-
December not later than 15
th

February and for January
-
June not later than 15
th

August), showing
funds received and expended. UNICEF will also supply annual audited statements of account.
Financial records will be audited in accordance with the globally established procedures and fina
ncial
rules and regulations of the UN and UNICEF. The 2011 DFID Multilateral Aid Review concluded that
UNICEF has good processes in place for audit, risk and accountability. The costs of financial
monitoring and audit are included in the programme budget.

Financial records will be audited as set
out in the financial rules of the UN.


For the girls’ bursary programme, DFID will receive quarterly financial and narrative reports from

CAMFED
. Financial records will be audited as set out in the AGA. An audit wi
ll be carried out on an
annual basis.


Any capital assets procured will be treated in accordance with DFID procedures.

It is not expected
that any funds will be returned over the life of the programme; if they are they will be handled in
accordance with
agre
ed DFID procedures.
An exit strategy, involving a shift to sector support, will be
contingent on political and economic developments in Zimbabwe.



Management Case


A.

What are the Management Arrangements for implementing the intervention?

(i) Support f
or ETF II through UNICEF

DFID will be contributing to a co
-
mingled/pooled fund involving 5 or more
other
donors, managed by
UNICEF on behalf of MoESAC. The rationale for using this modality is that UNICEF is able to establish
working relationships with GoZ

ministries such as MoESAC and MoLSS in a way which is presently not
available to the UK government. During the implementation of ETF I, UNICEF has shown that it has
delivered important resources to the education system in the form of stationery supplies a
nd very large
numbers of textbooks. ETF II is more ambitious in scope and will provide UNICEF with many additional
challenges. The key committee wil
l be the ETF Steering Committee


which
is likely to be
co
-
chaired by
MoESAC and a donor representative.

The
performance of ETF II will be monitored and assessed as per
the three
-
stage process presented in the ETF II proposal. Joint donor government annual review
missions will externally recruited independent consultants will objectively assess performance and fu
lfil
annual reporting obligations for DFID.







MoESAC
5 YEAR RECOVERY STRATEGY
EDUCATION TRANSITION FUND
(Annual Work Plan)
Second Chance
Education
ETF
STEERING COMMITTEE
Co chaired: Permanent
Secretary and Donor
Representative
Members include: Education
Funding Partners and
Secretariat

provided by
UNICEF
THEMATIC AREA 1
Teaching and
Learning
School and System
Governance
REPORTING
THEMATIC AREA 2
THEMATIC AREA 3
ECG Purpose:
Povides
the sector wide framework for donor
support to the
MoESAC
priorities. An umbrella mechanism
to monitor all existing bilateral and multilateral education aid
and its impact on progress towards the Education for All and
MDG goals.
ETF Steering Group Committee Purpose:
responsible for
oversight of the ETF. Ensures alignment of ETF allocations
with the ECG planning documents. Addresses other
strategic issues involved in the implementation of the ETF
programme
including relevant strategy development,
capacity building plans and operational research.
Supported by Various Sub
-
Sector Working Groups
(Aligned to
MoESAC’s
and
MoHTE
sector plans
Education Coordination Group (ECG
)
(Chaired by Minister) members: Perm
Sec
MoESAC
,
MoHTE
, funding
partners, UNICEF,
UNESCO
REPORTING



(ii) Supporting Girls to Complete Secondary Education

CAMFED
will manage the programme, working closely with MOESAC

(with whom it has an MoU)
,
provincial and district
-
level education officials, school development committees and other community
organisations.



In every district CAMFED’s programme is coordinated by a district level committee know as the CDC
(Community Development Committee
) inv
olving the District Education Office, other relevant ministries,
traditional leaders, local authorities, school authorities and CSOs. At school level CAMFED works with
School Development Committees and also Parent Support Groups to provide training on issu
es such as
financial management and child protection and to foster innovative ways for family members to contribute
to the school.



CAMFED
will establish their own child identification and management processes that as far as possible
align and support ex
isting national and community level systems of beneficiary identification, in particular
BEAM, part of the 2011
-
2015 N
ational Action Plan for OVCs.
NGOs working in the education sector in
Zimbabwe also engage as part of the SCF/UNICEF co
-
ordinated Emergen
cy Education Cluster a forum
which will also contribute to ensuring satisfactory oversight and sectoral linkages.



B.
What are the

risks and how these will be managed
?


The risk analysis for the two components of the intervention is presented separately. In addition the key
findings of the Political Economy Assessment presented in
Annex 3

will also be used to guide
programme oversight and minimise risk and mitigate imple
mentation problems, especially around
elections due in 2012
-
13 and their highly uncertain aftermath.



(i)


Support for ETF II through UNICEF



The risk analysis presented below is
the same as that
in the final version of the ETF II programme.


Risks and A
ssumptions

Planned Risk Response

1.


Political and economic situation
does not worsen to civil conflict or
collapse of service sectors.



2.


UN security phase does not rise to
level 3 or above

UNICEF and other UN agencies are working closely with
government Ministries responsible for social service sectors to
ensure good relations and delivery. UNICEF was able to
support the provision of services through various mechanisms
over the past years an
d does not anticipate this changing in
the near future.

The UN system has risk mitigation strategies to continue
support should the security phase increase.


3.


UNICEF is able to effectively work
with all partners, including
Government, as well as having full
access to implement and monitor
its programmes. UNICEF is able to
maintain programme focus on
intended strategic outcomes for
women and children.



UNICEF
engages with key ministries to advocate for
separation of politics from provision of social services and
conducts regular field monitoring of programme activities to
report operating risks and programme activities. Furthermore,
UNICEF is cluster leader fo
r

Education, WASH, and Nutrition
as well as fully engaged with other sectors. It maintains close
links with government structures and the donor community,
ensuring close coordination and consultation.

4.


UNICEF’s internal procurement
and contracting system
s are able
to effectively expedite and
manage large scale programmes.

Education donors and UNICEF agree on the realistic in
-
country technical and operational capacity required to
effectively implement and monitor the programme’s progress.
This mechanism ha
s been tested through the first phase of
the ETF and was demonstrated in September 2010 during an
annual review of the ETF which found that the
‘cost effective
textbook procurement has delivered far in excess of initial
expectations and is a major success’
.



5.


Overall costs of procurement of
goods and services do not escalate
beyond reasonable levels

UNICEF has a comprehensive procurement process which
aims at supplying the best services and goods at the best cost
and can access global markets to ensure
economies of scale
where necessary. Nevertheless as a principle local
procurement is encouraged to develop the local economy
wherever possible


but not at the risk of compromising
implementation or quality.


6.


Collaboration between
implementing organizati
ons will
be problem free and devoid of
politics.

MOUs between implementing partners should emphasize the
need to work together and commit to a transparent process
free of politicization. Interventions are designed to support
national strategic plans, coo
rdinated by Government and
implemented through government systems whenever
possible.

7.


Government has capacity to
facilitate policy reform quickly and
contribute adequate domestic
financial resources.

The ETF pooled
-
fund mechanism will allow government
appropriate flexibility in implementation across different
components of the Education strategy. Policy and strategic
planning support and technical assistance will assist in
strengthening government capacity.


8.


All pillars of the ETF programme
are indi
visible/interdependent
and need to be supported in order
to achieve the overall objectives

The ETF provides realistic funding projections and a pooled
mechanism with reduced transaction costs to encourage all
three interdependent pillars to be pursued. An
integrated
proposal

has been presented to donors.






Summary Matrix of
Risk
Probability and Impact


IMPACT


Low

Med

High

PROBABILITY

Lo
w

(5)

(2)

(1)

Med

(8)

(6)

(7)

High


(3)
(4)




(ii) Support Girls to Complete Secondary Education

Risks and
Assumptions

Planned Risk Response

1.


Political and economic situation
does not worsen to civil conflict or
collapse of service sectors.


2.


CAMFED

is able to work effectively
with all its partners in delivery of
the programme.


CAMFED has
a
very strong
track record of working
effectively
in Zimbabwe
including during the crisis period of
the late 2000s
and will have responsive strategies in place


It has
strong existing partnerships, at all levels from
MoESAC to community to school, on which to build the
new programme.

3.


CAMFED

has contracting systems
robust enough to deal with a large
programme.


Build in audit checks at all stages of programme
implementation, as necessary.

4.


No other obstacles arise for
children to access education, such
as violence, hu
nger, cholera


CAMFED’s close ties with local communities and relevant
authorities

should facilitate a speedy response.

5.


External factors (opportunity costs
to families, distance of travel, GBV)
do not deter girls from Form 4
completion


Community
engagement gives both early warning signals
of difficulties, and a potentially sensitive response system

6.

At end of programme, girls midway
through school will be forced to
dropout.

CAMFED should have the resources
to ensure all
beneficiaries are able to c
omplete Form IV, with funds
being reserved explicitly for this purpose.

Summary Matrix of
Risk
Probability and Impact


IMPACT


Low

Med

High

PROBABIL
ITY

Lo
w



(1)

Med

(4) (6)

(3)(5
)




High


(2)



C.
What conditions apply

(
for financial aid only
)?

Not applicable. There will be no direct financial aid to
the Government of Zimbabwe

D
.
How

will

progress and results be monitored, measured and evaluated
?


The key expected results (with indicators are milestones) and the logic chain to achieve them are
given
in standard DFID format in the attached draft Logical Framework (
Annex 1
). It should be noted that this
has joint impact and outcome statements, but separate Outputs:



Outputs 1


3 for the ETF Phase II



Output 4 for the Support Girls to Complete Seco
ndary Education.

Whilst presented as a single logframe, the fact that ETF
-
II is a multi
-
donor funded programme means
that some adjustments may be necessary through a consultative process with UNICEF, donor partners
and Government.


UNICEF proposes three levels of monitoring & evaluation of the ETF II. They are:


Level 1: Activity Monitoring (integrated in ETF II thematic area activities)

Involves
-

Monitoring, Supervision & Support; Regular review meetings; Quarterly review meetings


Level 2: Monitoring & Evaluation of ETF II Impact (outsourced)

Involves


Regular joint annual review meetings; Mid
-
Term Review; Final Evaluation and linked to
regular MDG status reporting for 2015. Under ETF Phase 1, independent external consultants hav
e been
recruited by donors (DFID in 2010, EU in 2011) to lead annual review processes; this practice will
continue in Phase 2.


Level 3: Operational Research (outsourced)

The key components will include a longitudinal early grade learning survey which addi
tionally seeks to
identify impact of programmatic interventions. This is deemed necessary as the Evidence Base has
been ranked as
Medium
. A baseline survey has been contracted under ETF
-
1 and this contract will
continue in ETF II, subject to satisfactory

performance. In tandem it will build Zimbabwe Schools
Examinations Council's technical capacity and has both donor and UNICEF CCORE (external evaluation
department) engagement in selection and supervision to ensure objectivity in results identified.


All

of these levels of investigation will be funded from the ETF II budget.


DFID will need to establish in the inception phase (2011
-
12) and keep under periodic review that the
degree of autonomous analysis incorporated in Levels 2 and 3 will meet its own ev
aluation requirements.
UNICEF is

strengthening its capacity in the area of monitoring and evaluation of education projects.


The purpose of the monitoring and evaluation work is to ensure that rigorous evidence is gathered
regarding the impact of the va
rious interventions included in ETFII. This will serve to potentially assist
with re
-
allocation of resources/activities (as part of the mid term review) and to direct future education
interventions by both government and donors in the area of impact of edu
cation inputs


books, learning
materials and funds for school improvements and quality enhancements..


The evaluation will determine whether the ETF (both phases 2010
-
2015) has had the desired effects on
children, their caregivers, schools and the educat
ion sector in general as well as to identify the extent to
which changes identified are attributable to the ETF program interventions. This will require
:




Conducting a nationally representative assessment of early grade learning and the primary
school oper
ational environment and practices in late 2011 that can provide an adequate


information source to verify the initial impact of ETF phase 1 and provide a baseline against
which subsequent annual assessments and surveys can measure longer term impact of the
ETF
programme and track trends in the national education system.



Preparation of a comprehensive report with MoESAC and ZimSEC

partner stakeholders to
present the 2011 situation and identify how the ETF can support the evolution of assessment,
examination and teaching practices to best impact upon improved learning outcomes and
retention of students within the education system.


Monitoring and Evaluation will also extend to the area of learning assessment with a view to improving
Zimbabwe’s system of student assessment, focusing on a review of the national public examinations
system and introduction of early grade learning assessm
ent of numeracy and literacy. This is to be done
with the view to expanding a system of classroom based formative assessment, linked to teacher
education and curriculum development initiatives.


Initial proposals to conduct a Randomised Control T
rial of t
he impact of textbook distribution were
rejected on a combination of ethical grounds and the fact that there was a low likelihood of a statistically
significant increase in learning scores being recorded in a single year. Despite this it is anticipated tha
t
rigorous evaluation methodologies will be utilised including statistical matching/quasi
-
experimental
methods, double difference, impact estimates or factor analysis.


DFID will invest in

an

appropriate independent evaluation of the bursary scheme for g
irls to determine
whether the expected results have been
achieved and at what unit costs.
The evaluation will

generate

robust evidence about the impact of the intervention and
provide useful
lessons

for future interventions
.
DFID will work with UNICEF and

other ETF II donors to develop a communication and dissemination
strategy for the key monitoring and evaluation findings.


CAMFED monitors and evaluates its programme against a set of 73 core indicators which cover both
outputs and outcomes. In 2009 they
carried out an ex
tensive survey which provides a

strong baseline.
They plan to carry out a further survey in 2014 to measure the impact of their work during the intervening
period. CAMFED are exploring ways to make better use of information technology to
carry out this
monitoring work. They are also piloting a ‘School Report Card’ in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Ghana to help
assess learning outcomes and promote results
-
based management.


Log
f
rame


Quest No of logframe for this intervention:
3328156





References




1

MoESAC 2011
-
15 strategic plan

2

EMIS 2009

3

(UNICEF, 2010)

4

Zimbabwe Women’s Resource Centre Network, 2009 Gender Analysis of the Education Sector

5

Math, English, Environmental Science, Shona/Ndebele for primary schools and in Math, English,
Science,
History,
Shona/Ndebele and Geography for secondary.

6

Derived from the 2011 proposal for the DFID Girls Challenge Fund

7

CAMFED, July 2011

8

CAMFED Impact Report (2010): A Power Sharing Model for Systematic Change

9

Hanusek and Woessman (2010), Table 14; see also Dollar David and Roberta Gatti (1999), Gender
inequality, income and growth: are good times good for women, World Bank, Gender and
d
evelopment working paper series, number 1, http: //www.worldbank.org/gender/prr

10

Hanushek, Eric A. and Ludger Woessmann. 2010. “The economics of international differences in
educational achievement,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper # 15
949

11

Abolishing School Fees in Africa, Lessons from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, and Mozambique
;
World Bank / UNICEF (2009) and
Zimbabwe Report On The Rapid Assessment Of Primary &
Secondary Schools
; National Education Advisory Board (2009)

12

H. Patrin
os (World Bank 2007) " Guiding Principles for Implementing School
-
based Management
Programs"

13

Adediran, Sulleiman (2011) Assessment of Effectiveness of the School Based Management
System in Bauchi, Katsina, Sokoto and Niger States, Nigeria (2008
-
2010) UNI
CEF, Abuja

14

projects.dfid.gov.uk/iati/Project/202372

15

Kremer et al, 2007

16

Barrientos & DeJong, 2004

17

Baird, S., McIntosh, C. and Ozler, B. (2010) “Cash or Condition; Evidence from a randomized cash
transfer program” World Bank Policy Research Working P
aper # 5259

18

Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action at MIT, "Empowering Young Women: what do we know about
creating the girl effect?”, May 2010.

19

World Bank (October 2010) From Evidence to Policy: Can Scholarships help students continue
their Education? Washi
ngton DC

20

Glewwe, P., N. Ilias, and M. Kremer, 2003. “Teacher Incentives." Working Papers: 9671
(Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research). A. Mulkeen et al. "Teachers In
Anglophone Africa: Issues in teacher supply, training and management.
", World Bank, 2010

21

World Bank Policy Research Report "Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future
Poverty", Ariel Fiszbein and Norbert Schady, 2008

22

(Davidson 1992, Goodland 1991, Lutz and

Daly 1990, Jaganathan 1989, Southgate 1991,
Chengappa 1995, Browder 1989, and Bromley

1989).

23

UNDP
-
UNEP Poverty Environment Initiative:
www.unpei.org/PDF/Malawi
-
Economic
-
Forum.pdf

24

Making Disaster Risk Reduction Gender
-
Sensitive
-

Policy and Practical Guidelines. UNISDR 2009

25

Appiah, E. and McMahon, W. (2002) “The social outcomes of Education and feedback on growth in
Africa”, Journal of Development Studies, 38, (4), 27
-
68

26

Brian Blankespoor, Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, and

David Wheeler. Adaptation to climate
extremes in developing countries: the role of education. Policy Research Working Paper 5342, The
World Bank, 2010.

27

Brian Blankespoor, Susmita, Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, and David Wheeler. The Economics of
Adaptation

to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries, Working Paper 199, The Center for
Global Development, 2010.

28

Blankespoor, B., Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B and Wheeler, D. (2010) “Adaptation to Climate
Extremes in Developing Countries: the Role of Educati
on”, World Bank Policy Research Working
Paper 5342.

29

World Development Indicators

30

This includes both the direct cost of the programme and the opportunity cost of children attending
school

31

Glewwe, P., N. Ilias, and M. Kremer, 2003. “Teacher Incentives.
" Working Papers: 9671
(Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research). A. Mulkeen et al. "Teachers In
Anglophone Africa: Issues in teacher supply, training and management.", World Bank, 2010

Girls’ bursaries

through
CAMFED or
BEAM








32

CBA for DFID support to the CPF used a discount rat
e of 8% which has been changed to 10% to
be consistent with the other three options.

33

Note that these per pupil costs exclude donor and major parental inputs, especially for teacher
salary top
-
ups (incentives). Parental inputs are substantial, estimated a
t 29% for primary and 60% for
secondary school pupils in 2009
-
10 and need to be considered in the monitoring of this VFM
indicator.

34

An additional $570,000 will be allocated for TA support to learning assessments as part of the M&E
of the programme