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Dec 12, 2012 (4 years and 6 months ago)

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Abundance



1

Abundance
: The Future is better than you Think

By
Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler

Book Notes compiled by Jane Sigford


Chapter 1: Our Grandest Challenge

The Lesson of Aluminum




In the times of Pliny he elder in the year AD 23 a goldsmith brought him

an
unusual plate

It was made of aluminum. The goldsmith explained the
extraction process he used. However, because the emperor was worried
that this would cause a decrease in the value of gold, he had the goldsmith
beheaded.



This shiny metal was aluminu
m and this beheading kept the secret of
extraction quiet for 2000 years. It reappeared in the 1800s and was
considered the most valuable metal in the world.



Aluminum, behind oxygen and silicon, is the most abundant element in the
Earth’s crust, making up

8.3 $% of the weight of the world



Today it is cheap, ubiquitous, and used with a throwaway mindset.



It never appears in nature as a pure metal but is tightly bound as oxides and
silicates in a claylike material called bauxite.



Bauxite is 5.2 % aluminum, e
xtracting the pure metal is complex.



The electrolysis process, an advanced technology made aluminum plentiful.



Speaking of new technology, now Abu
Dhabi

is creating a city called Masdar
to house 50,000 residents and 40,000 workers. This city will cause

no waste
or release any carbo
n. The city will cost $20 billion
to build the first post
-
petrole
um city.

They will use solar

There’s over 5000 times more solar
energy
falling

on the planet’s surface than we use in a year. It’s not an issue
of

scarcity, b
ut of accessibility.



Currently, humanity uses 30% more of our planet’s natural resources than we
can replace.



If everyone on this planet wanted to live with the lifestyle of the average
European, we would need 3 planets’ worth of resources to pull it off.



If everyone on this planet wished to live like an average N. American, then
we’d need 5 planets to pull it off.



OPL, One Planet Living, is an initiative based on 10 core principles to combat
these shortages



Point is: through the lens of technology, few
resources are truly scarce;
they’re mainly inaccessible. Yet the threat of scarcity dominates our
worldview.


Limits to Growth

Abundance



2



Many of our researchers have been preaching scarcity and doom and we have
adopted that mindset: Robert Malthus, Alexander King
and Aurelio Peccei in
Limits to Growth
, Paul Ehrlich in
Population Bomb.



There are now 7 billion people on the planet. By 2050 there will be closer to
10 billion.



Diamandis runs a foundation X PRIZE FOUNDATION that offers huge
monetary prizes for the de
sign and operation of large incentive
-
prize
competitions to help solve some of the world’s biggest problems by using the
social networking connections of millions of minds around the globe


Possibility of Abundance



Humanity is entering a period of radical

transformation in which technology
has the potential to significantly raise the basic standards of living for
every man, woman, and child on the planet. Abundance for all is actually
within our grasp.



African has skipped a technological generation (landl
ines). 70% of the
population now has cell phones which gives them access to information,
banking, etc.



Comput
ational systems, networks and sensors, artificial intelligence,
robotics, biotechnology, bioinformatics, 3
-
D printing, nanotechnology,
human
-
mach
ine interfaces and biomedical engineering will soon enable the
vast majority of humanity to experience what only the affluent have access
to today. P
.
10



There are 3 forces at work to promote this abundance.

1.

DIY revolution

do it yourself backyard tinkerers

can reach into areas of
genetics and robotics and circumvent governments and regulations because
they have access to information, technology, and other thinkers. Example:
Craig Venter who sequenced his own genome

ahead of the government’s
completion of t
he Genome Project.

2.

Money

high tech revolution has created a new breed of wealthy
technophilanthropists who are using fortunes to solve global, abundance
-
related challenges. E.g. Bill Gates crusading against malaria, Mark
Zuckerberg working to reinvent e
ducation, Pierre and Pam Omidyar

bringing
electricity to developing world

3.

Rising billion

very poorest of the world are a huge market for new goods
and services. Because of Internet, microfinance, and wireless
communication, the poorest of the
poor is

bein
g transformed into emerging
market force.

Chapter 2: Building the Pyramid

Trouble with Definitions



Must define both poverty and abundance.

Abundance



3



Poverty

absolute poverty (number of people under certain income
threshold) and relative poverty (comparing individual
’s income compared to
average income for entire economy.



Pyramid of Abundance: 3 levels 1: food, water, shelter, other basic survival
concerns; middle level

catalysts for further growth like abundant energy,
ample educational opportunities, and access t
o ubiquitous communications
and information; highest tier

freedom and health, 2 core prerequisites
enabling an individual to contribute to society.

Base of Pyramid



Basic need

3
-
5 liters of clean drinking water per person per day and 2,000
calories or mor
e of balanced and nutritious food. Need vitamins either
through food or supplements. Need 25 liters of water for bathing, cooking,
cleaning and a durable shelter with adequate reading light, ventilation, and
sanitation.



If we provide, one of these, par
ticularly water, it acts like a row of dominoes
that others challenges fall away resulting in a positive gain.


Upside of water



Currently, a billion people lack access to safe drinking water. 2.6 billion lack
access to basic sanitation. As a result ½ o
f world’s hospitalizations are due
to contaminated drinking water. P. 16



Bacteria causing diarrhea

4.1 % of
global

disease, killing 1.8 million children
a year. Right now more folks have access to a cell phone than a toilet.



Information

one of our greates
t assets in defeating this problem. Also,
there is perfect correlation

as you improve health, within half a generation,
the population growth rate goes down.



John Oldfield “Best way to control population is through increasing child
survival, educating girls, and making knowledge about and availability
of

birth
control ubiquitous.”

Pursuit of Catallaxy



Next level after basic needs is education and information/c
ommunication
which raise standard of living and pave way for 2 of greatest abundance
assets in history: specialization and exchange.



Energy provides means to do work; education allows workers to specialize;
information
/communication abundance not only furt
hers specialists to
exchange specialities, thus creating what economist Freidrick Hayek called
catallaxy: ever expanding possibility generated by the division of labor.
Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves,
by Matt Ridley

2 individuals do
not have to
do same thing. That is what trade is about.



Energy is biggest game changer

people spend less time with burden of fuel
gathering, children can go to schools and thus lower child
mortality,

enhance
women’s rights, and lower population growth.

Abundance



4

Reading, Writi
ng, and Ready



A profound change would be to teach every child basics of literacy,
mathematics, life skills, and critical thinking.



Currently our educational systems are outdated

based on 19
th

century with
math and science at top, humanities in middle art

on bottom. However, we
now know creative ideas are ultimate resource and our current educational
system does little to nourish this resource.



Current system built around fact
-
based learning

no longer necessary with
access to Google.



With advent of smart

phone, education needs to be decentralized,
personalized, and extremely interactive. Decentralized means not controlled
by autocratic govts
.

personalized

tailored to individual, and interactive

if
you want more learning, you want more doing. Seymour
Pape
rt
: “Love is a
better master than duty. Using the laptop as the agency for engaging
children in constructing knowledge based upon their personal interests and
providing them tools for sharing and critiquing these constructions will lead
them to become lea
rners and teachers.” P. 21

Turning on the Data Tap



Information and communication impact can’t be overstated. Cell phones
produce change organically because of availability, particularly in isolated
places like some countries in Africa.

Peak of the Pyramid



Health and freedom at the top. Health and good health care are core
components of an abundant world.



Acute respiratory infections are one of leading causes of serious illness
worldwide. At risk are young, elderly and immunocompromised.



Diagnosis and
distribution of health care of problems. Currently technology
known as lab
-
on
-
a
-
chip is under development which is packed into portable,
cell
-
phone sized device that will all patients to take sample of bodily fluids
and make diagnostic on the spot.



In de
veloped world like in US medical costs go up another 8$ every year and
16.5 % of economy goes to health care. If we don’t used personalized
technologies like lab
-
on
-
a
-
chip, we’re going to bankrupt the country. P. 23



Lab
-
on
-
a
-
chip can also gather data to m
onitor patterns and treat them
quickly, lie flu outbreaks



Global market for personalized medicine is projected to read $452
billion
.

Freedom



Amartya Sen in his book
Development as Freedom

--

liberty moves in
lockstep with sustainable development.



Jared
Cohen reached out to Twitter founder, Jack Dorsey, to reschedule its
planned website maintenance so Iranians could keep tweeting which helped
Abundance



5

create the Arab Spring

called The Twitter Revolution
” as

one of top 10
Internet moments of the decade.

Bigger Cha
llenge



Many of these changes will happen in the next 25 years, but a large share
will happen in the next ten

Chapter 3: Seeing the forest Through the trees


Daniel Kahneman



The way our brain works provides cognitive blocks for us to accept the idea
of abun
dance.
Some of those blocks are cynicism, pessimism, etc.
al

SEE BOOK NOTES ON KAHNEMAN’S
THINKING FAST AND SLOW



One bias is heuristics

cognitive shortcuts based on evolution but they may
lead to errors.



Clarity is one possible error

We tend to miscalcula
te distance based on the
clarity of visibility



Confirmation bias

affects our ability to see abundance because we search
for information that confirms our preconceptions, not for information that
offers new ideas



Negativity bias

our brain functions to give
more weight to negative
information and experiences than positive ones



Anchoring

we rely too heavily on one piece of information when making
decisions



Cognitive biases often work in tandem which compounds the issue



Bandwagon effect

tend to do or believe th
ings because others do



Psychological immune system

we tend to overestimate our own
attractiveness, intelligence, work ethic, chances for success, chances of
avoiding a negative outcome, impact on external events,
impact

on other
people, and the superiority

of our own peer group.



We also tend to underestimate the world at large.



Human beings are designed to be local optimists and global
pessimist

which is
a big problem for believing in the idea of abundance.

If it Bleeds, it Leads



The brain sorts information
. First line of defense is amygdala which is
responsible for primal emotions of rage, hate, and fear. When we are
saturated with information, the amygdala looks for something to fear.



Attention is a limited resource and our tendency to fear compounds the

attention we pay to negative information.



It’s hard to be optimistic when brain’s filtering architecture is pessimistic.
P. 33



Good news is drowned out, because it’s in the best interest of media to
overemphasize the bad.

Abundance



6



Our brain is hard
-
wired so that
our prosocial behaviors are slower
-
moving
which includes the ability to demonstrate empathy and compassion.

It’s no Wonder We’re Exhausted



Man evolved in
a world

that was “local and linear” but today’s environment is
“global and exponential” p.
34 we

have
to interpret a global world with a
system built for local landscapes causing a “disruptive convergence.” P.
35
Therefore
, sometimes our local and
linear rains

are blind to the possibility,
the opportunities it may present, and the speed at which it will ar
rive.

Dunbar’s Number



Robin Dunbar at Oxford University found that people tend to self
-
organize
in groups of 150 (US military units e.g.
) While

people may interact with
thousands of people, they actually interact with only 150 of them. Called
Dunbar’s nu
mber is the upper limit of interpersonal relationships the brain
can process.



Because the nuclear family has replaced the extended family in our society
we tend to fill the 150 slots with people we have daily “contact” like movie
stars on t.v. such as Lady

Gaga. We tend to treat those people as friends
and feel like we “know” them.



The concern is What is truth?


Chapter 4: It’s Not as Bad as you Think

This Moaning Pessimism



Kahneman describes “loss aversion” We are more sensitive to what we
perceive we
lose, than to what we perceive we gain. We are more afraid of
being worse off, than happy or moving toward being better off. That’s why
certain news items explode and people react e.g. flu epidemics, acid rain
effects.



Matt Ridley

optimism rather than pe
ssimism is sounder
philosophical

position for accessing our species’ chances at a brighter tomorrow in his
book
The Rational Optimist

Saved Time and Saved Lives



Saved time by using light, better transportation, etc has saved us tie and
lives over the years
.



We humans are living longer, wealthier, healthier, safer lives and have
increased access to goods, services, transportation, information, education,
medicines communication, human rights, democratic institutions, durable
shelter.

Cumulative Progress



Cul
ture is ability to store, exchange, and improve ideas. Specialization
encourages innovation because not every person has to do everything,
allowing for more creative and exchange of goods and services.



We can now trade in a different kind of good

informa
tion.

Abundance



7



Trade is a zero
-
sum game, says Dean Kamen. However, “if you have an idea
and I have an idea, and we exchange them, then we both have two ideas. It’s
nonzero.” P. 46

Best Stats You’ve Ever Seen



Hans Rosling

TED presentation “Best Stats You’ve Ever

Seen” Watch it!!!!!



Gap between rich and poor is lessening. Gap between West and the rest is
closing.

Part Two
-
Exponential Technologies

Chapter 5: Ray Kurzweil and the Go
-
Fast Button


Curve on a Piece of Paper



Moore’s law

Gordon Moore described Moore’s
law which states that every
18 months, the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles, which
essentially means that every eighteen months computers get twice as fast
for the same price. His law has been extended to technology in general, not
j
ust transistors.



Exponential growth in technology is happening.



Ray Kurzweil realized that technologies will be outdated by the time they
get to market. To be really successful, we need to
anticipate

where
technology will be in 3
-
5 years and base design
s on that.

Google on the Brain



Kurzweil found that dozens of technologies followed the pattern of
exponential growth e.g. expansion of telephone lines in US, amount of
internet data traffic in a year, the bits per dollar of magnetic data storage.



Plus, wha
t also grew exponentially was that they grew regardless of
whatever else was going on in the world.



He forecast demise of Soviet Union, that a computer would win the world’s
chess championship.



By using Moore’s law the average $1000 laptop should be comput
ing at the
rate of the human brain in fewer that 15 years.



The faster computers help us design better technologies. Humans will begin
incorporating these technologies into our bodies: neuroprosthetics will
augment cognition; nanobots will repair ravages o
f disease; bionic hearts will
stave off decrepitude.



We also need to know where these expanding technologies will overlap.

Singularity University



SU was founded to work with overlapping technologies and train in growing
fields of biotechnology and bioinfo
rmatics; computational systems; networks
and sensors; artificial intelligence; robotics; digital manufacturing; medicine;
and nanomaterials and nontechnology. These 8 fields are potential sources
of abundance.

Chapter 6

The Singularity is Near

Abundance



8

A Trip thro
ugh Tomorrowland



Craig Venter

mapped his own human genome before the federal gov’t
completed the Human Genome Project in less than one year for under $100
milling

when the gov’t spent $1.5 billion.




His next success
-
creation of a synthetic life form. His goal

to create a
new kind of synthetic life that can manufacture ulta
-
low
-
cost fuels.
Working on
a novel

algae
that

can take carbon dioxide and water and create
oil or any other kind of fuel.



He h
as also spent 5 years sailing his research yacht around the globe
scooping up algae

he has built library of over 40 million different genes to
call upon for his future biofuels.



He’s thinking about engineering food crops with fiftyfold production
improveme
nt over today’s agriculture.



The type of biotechnology is critical to creating world of abundance.

Networks and Sensors



Vint Cerg
-
chief Internet evangelist for Google

future of networks and
sensors. Considered one of “fathers of Internet.”



Image a huge ne
twork connecting trillions of devices each with its own IP
address, each accessible through the Internet. Suddenly Google can help
you find anything

no such thing as stolen property anymore.



Cerf creating next generation of Internet protocols (called I
pv6) with room
for 340 trillion trillion trillion unique addresses

50,000 addresses

Artificial Intelligence



We have prototype cars right now with AI that can drive themselves. If the
experts have it right, around 2020, we will have autonomous vehicles
op
erating on public roads

depending on laws that may slow things down.



Robocar evangelist

this will save lives and accident costs



AI

also for diagnosing patients teaching children will be backbone for new
energy paradigm.



Right now IBM has 2 chips to move
this way

First integrates electrical and
optical devices on same piece of silicon which communicate with light which
could accelerate supercomputer performance a thousandfold. # 2 is
SyNAPSE

brain
-
mimicking silicon chip

able to play game of Pong, control
virtual car on racecourse, identify image drawn on a screen.

Robotics



Scott Hassan

intent to build a personal robot. Have discovered 2 things:
robots harder to build than expected and more expensive.



Scott
open sourced

project to make use of
hundreds

of minds.



Obama announced National Robotics Initiative. Robotics are way to
transform American lives.


Digital Manufacturing and Infinite Computing

Abundance



9



3D
printing is

now used to make everything from
lampshades

and eyeglasses
to custom
-
fitted prosthetic li
mbs.



A 3D printer that works in zero gravity can print spare parts when needed
at the International Space station



3D printing drops manufacturing costs precipitously because it makes new
prototyping possible. P.
69 Now

we can make several prototypes wit
h little
additional cost without having to build several prototypes to see which works



Infinite computing

because of the cloud, information is accessible anytime,
anywhere, by anyone.

Medicine



We are developing Lab
-
on
-
a
-
Chip technology which makes diagnostics
accessible to people who have a smartphone. The difficulty will be having
access to doctors.



Besides LOC, we have artificial intelligence where
you can have
conversations with someone th
rough AI and will be able to use this
technology in their own homes.

Nanomaterials and Nanotechnology



Nanobots

can replicate themselves over and over. Nanocomposites are now
considerably stronger than steel and created for a fraction of the cost.



Single
-
w
alled
carbon

nanotubes are being used to boost power conversion
efficiency in solar cells.



Nanotechnology has potential to enhance human performance, to bring
sustainable development for materials, water, energy, and food, to protect
against unknown bacter
ia and viruses, and even to diminish the reasons for
breaking the peace [by creating universal abundance].
National Science
Foundation p. 72

Are you Changing the World?



There was no place for someone to learn about all of these breakthroughs.
That’s why S
ingularity University was created.



Each year graduate students are challenged to develop a company, product,
or organization that will positively affect the lives of a billion people within
ten years.

Part Three

Building the Base of the Pyramid

Chapter

7

Tools of Cooperation


Roots of Cooperation



Interested in the next 2
-
3 decades and the 3 forces that will accelerate
change and abundance: 1) coming of age of DIY innovator; new breed of
technophilanthropist; expanding creative/market power of the rising

billion.

Abundance



10



New technology creates greater opportunities for specialization, which
increases cooperation, which leads to more capability, which generates new
technology and starts the whole process over again.

From Horses to Hercules



First cooperative tool

t
ransportation revolution. Went from horses to
planes, trains, and automobiles that allowed transportation of information
goods, and services in real time.



2
nd

cooperative tool is information and communication technology with its 8
contributions:

1.

connectivity

with cell phones even the world’s most remote village is
connected

2.

increased
diviision

of labor

greater connectivity produces greater
specialization

which allows

all of us to participate in global supply chain

3.

scale

message go over vast networ
ks reaching millions of people in
almost no time at all

4.

replication

online training or production specifications can reach distant
outlets instantaneously

5.

accountability

increased

audits, monitoring and evaluation

6.

Internet’s ability to bring together buye
rs and sellers

7.

Use of social networking to build “
communities

of interest”

8.

Education and training

curriculum
updated

almost instantaneously and
immediately available

Gold in Dem Hills



Open source software such as Linux has brought together minds from all
over the world to solve problems in a way that has never happened before.



Not necessary to have “knowledge scarcity” anymore when through the
Internet there is access to minds from all over the world to bring the
brightest minds to work on the world’s hard
est problems



If we were to forgo our t.v. addiction for just one year, the world would
have over a trillion hours of cognitive surplus to commit to share projects.”
Shirky, p. 83.

Affordable Android



Healthiest global economy is built upon the exchange of i
nformation, p. 83



Film industry and example. Hollywood used to make the best films with
brightest stars. In less than 25 years digital technology has rearranged
these facts.



On average Hollywood produces 500 films per year and reaches worldwide
audience
of 2.6 billion. Average length of the films is 2 hours so Hollywood
produces 1000 hours of content per year.



YouTube users, however, upload 48 hours worth of videos every minute.
That means, every 21 minutes YouTube provides more novel entertainment
than

Hollywood does in 12 months to an audience of 129 million view a day.

Abundance



11



So in 21 days YouTube reaches more people than Hollywood does in a year.



We saw this in Arab
Spring, which

enabled radical transparency and
transformed the political landscape.

Chapt
er 8: Water

Water for Water



70% of worlds’ water is used for agriculture. An egg requires 120 gallons to
produce. There are 100 gallons in a watermelon. Meat is thirstiest requiring
2,500 gallons per pound.



443 million school days a year are lost to
water
-
related disease



35 gallons to make one microchip



Energy requires 20% of our nonagricultural water in US

Dean vs. Goliath



Dean Kamen

440 patents; a DIY innovator; invented first portable infusion
pump capable of automatically delivering the same exact

drug dosages that
had once required round
-
the
-
clock supervision.



Has
invented a

machine to purify 250 gallons of water a day using the same
amount of energy it takes to run a hair dryer.



He has entered into negotiations with Coca
-
cola to build, distribute
, and use
its supply chain to help maintain the Slingshot (his water purifying device) so
that clean water is available in Africa.



Slingshot is built to serve 100 people, not large
-
scale urban deployment

Prophylaxis



Population is linked to fertility. U
rbanization actually lowers fertility rates



Issue is that the most fecund population on the planet is the rural poor. It
takes lots of hands to do farm work and infant mortality is greater as well.



Of the
1.1 billion

people in the world without access to
safe water, 85% live
in the countryside. Of the 2.2. million children that die each year from
drinking contaminated water, the vast majority are rural as well.



A
water
-
purifying

device such as Slingshot can also be a family planning
device, therefore.

Getting Roomier at the Bottom



Solution to clean water is not just Slingshot but is a combination of ideas.
Another is disaster readiness. During Katrina it took 5 days to get water to
refugees in the Superdome.



Designed a small bottle, called Lifesaver,
to clean and filter water for
disaster relief for such things as the tsunami. But it can produce 25000
liters of water enough for a family of 4 for 3 years.



Also nanomaterials are now being used to eliminate contaminants to clean up
waterways, contamina
ted aquifers, and Superfund sites.



IBM and Central Glass have developed a nanofilter capable of removing salt
and arsenics which used to be impossible.

Abundance



12



40% of Earth’s population live within 100 kilometers of a coast, combination
of nanotech and desalin
ation holds greater promise.



Reverse osmosis holds greater promise. It is nanotechnologies that hold
such promise for the future.

Smart Grid for Water



To solve water problem our biggest opportunity is in information and how to
reduce waste



70% of our
water is used for agriculture yet 50% of the food produced gets
thrown away



5% of our energy goes to pump water, but 20% of water streams out holes in
leaky pipes.



If we had a smart grid we could save the US 30
-
50% of its total water use.



Computer
-
assisted

irrigation would utilize precision agriculture to conserve
water. Could lower water use by 35
-
40%

Solving Sanitation



When it comes to indoor plumbing, not much has changed in very long time.



Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation have given 8
universities

fu
nding to help
bring toilet technology into 21
st

century



If we remove feces we solve an enormous portion of global disease burden



Toilets account for 31% of water use in US. Leaks from pipes are the
biggest waste.

Pale Blue Dot



Carl Sagan “This distant ima
ge of our tiny world…underscores our
responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and
cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.” P. 99 So today
bring on the efficiencies, take shorter showers, eat less beef, do all
that we
can to preserve a currently limited resource to protect our pale blue
dot. p
.
99

Chapter 9: Failure of Brute Force



Feeding the world remains an issue. 1 out of 3 children show stunted growth
from malnutrition in developing countries. Iodine defic
iency is single leading
cause of mental retardation and brain damage. Lack of
vitamin A kills a
million infan
ts annually.



Toxic
herbicides

and pesticides have destroyed our waterways.



Yet we have seen miraculous change in ability to produce food. Curr
ently we
farm 38% of the land in the world

Cooking for Nine Billion



Genetic Engineering foods is powerful; stops erosion, makes better use of
water and reduces herbicide use



We have 1
st

generation of GE crops. Soon we’ll have versions that can grow
in drought conditions, saline conditions, nutritionally fortified, that act as
medicines and can increase yields.

Abundance



13



Gates Foundation

led effort BioCassava Plus to take cassava, one of world’s
l
argest staple crops, fortify it with protein, vitamins A and E, iron, and zinc
and make it storable. It will improve the health of the 250 million people for
whom it is a daily meal.



Author and activist Michael
Pollen

called for open source movement for
GE
groups.



Distribution is still a problem and we have to figure that out

Vertical Farming



Vertical farming is using spaces in the city to grow crops in buildings, up the
sides, etc. Reducing use of water, herbicides, because it’s indoors. It will
make use of rooftops, etc.



They are immune to
weather;

crops can be grown year round. Eliminate
need
for fossil fuels that are used for plowing, cultivating, etc.



70% of us live in cities

vertical farms are clearest path toward ending
hunger and malnutrition requiring 80% less land, 90% less water,
and 100
%
fewer pesticides.



Integrate a few techno
logies

aquaponics for closed
-
loop protein production;
robotic crop harvesting to lower labor costs; AI systems attached to
biosensors for better environmental regulation; continued development of
biomass energy systems; betterment and continued integration

of waste
recycling systems

and we end up with gold standard of sustainable
agriculture. P. 109

Protein



Cattle are energy hogs, and land hogs

using 70% of all agricultural lands and
covering 30% of all land surface. Ranching
produces

more greenhouse gases

than all the cars in the world and is the leading cause of soil erosion and
deforestation



Disease is another issue. Tightly packed herds of animals are breeding
grounds for pandemics.



Danger is increasing because developing nations want to eat more meat.




Now we can have in
-
vitro meat and aquaculture

farming our fish.



Aquaculture is now fastest
-
growing animal food production system supplying
nearly 30% of seafood.

Cultured Meat



Now have ability to have cultured meat

grown from stem
cells which allow

us
to have meat that has no danger of harmful bacteria. It is nutritionally
fortified and allows us to use and reforest the land that is currently
devoted to ranching.



Can protect and reforest the rainforest as well.

Between Now and Then



We have aquaculture
, GE foods particularly with cotton, corn and soybeans.

Abundance



14



Golden rice (rice fortified with vitamin A) is about to clear regulatory
hurdles and enter food chain. P. 113



Cultured meat and wide deployment of vertical farms probably 10
-
15 years
out



Also we are
using push
-
pull farming which has farmers plant specific plants
between rows of corn that push some insects away or pull
in

beneficial ones.

Tough Row to Hoe



Have long chain of sustainable intensification backed up by agroecological
principles, GE crops,

synthetic biology, perennial polycultures, vertical farms,
robotics and AI integrated agriculture, upgraded aquaculture, and a booming
business in cultured mean.



We can have abundance in food production.

Part Four

Forces of Abundance

Chapter 10: DIY
Innovator


Stewart

Brand



Published first Whole Earth Catalog in 1968 which was a paradigm shift in
information distribution. It embraced personal technology and credited with
inventing term “personal computer” Stewart singlehandedly responsible for
Americ
an culture’s acceptance of personal computer. P. 120



His marriage of self
-
reliance and technology helped shape DIY innovator into
a force for abundance. He said “information wants to be free
” and

he also
believed that business could be a force for good. P
. 121

Homebrew History



Fred Moore

realized power in networking. Started Homebrew Computer
Club for tech
hobbyists,

included Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs. Members
hared secrets and transformed big business and big science.

Power of Small Groups Par I



DIY i
nnovators

can now tackle problems that were
once

solely the purview of
big govts and large corporations.



Burt Rutan e.g.

built aircraft and outperformed gov’t in making a manned
space flight with SpaceShipOne.

Maker Movement




Chris Anderson

started non
profit online community called DIY Drones.
Used opensource to make heap drones. He revolutionized drone field

DIY Bio



Drew Endy

biologist.
Founded international Genetically Engineer Machine
competition

worldwide synthetic biology competition aimed at hi
gh school
and undergraduate students

Aim was to build simple biological system from
standardized interchangeable parts and operate them within living cells

called BioBricks

Abundance



15



They created an algae able to consume oil spills, for example.



We have an era of “
garage biology”

Social Entrepreneu
r



Social entrepreneurs are DIYers taking on big gov’t social programs. Using
social networks there are organizations such as Kiva that loans money to
small business on person
-

to
-
person basis in developing countries as a
microfinance agency.



KickStart, Martin Fisher and Nick Moon, give people the technological means
to lift themselves out of poverty

developed everything from low
-
cost

irrigation to inexpensive presses for creating cooking oils



They have outperformed HUD for

more than 2 decades.

Chapter 11
-
Technophilanthropists



Have revolutionized industries with PayPal, advertising on Google, and
commerce with eBay.



Instead of robber barons such as Carnegie, we have people such as Jeff
Skoll, 1
st

president of eBay. He has awarded more than $250 million to 81
social entrepreneurs working on 5 continents.

p. 136



“impact investing” whereby investors back businesses that generate financial
returns
and
meet

measurable social or environmental goals.



H
ave hands
-
on approach

they also bring human capital to bear on issue.



The new
breed of technophilanthropists was

billionaires before the age of
35 and turned to philanthropy right afterward.
They want to make a
difference with their lives.



Don’t have to g
et re
-
elected or suffer tyranny of shareholders.

How Many and How Much



Naveen Jain

founded InfoSpace and Intelius

co
-
chair of XPRIZE
Education and Global Development Advisory Group

focusing on reinventing
education and health care in developing world.



Gate
s and Warren Buffet

2 richest men in world

announced “Giving
Pledge” which asks nation’s billionaires to give away half their wealth to
philanthropic and charitable groups within their lifetime or at their death.



Paul Allen Steve Case, Mark Zuckerberg, Dus
tin Moskovitz have all signed on.



These technophilanthropists are still young and can make even more money
and more of a difference.

Chapter 12: Rising Billion

World’s Biggest Market



The poorest people

4 billion people occupying lowest strata of economic

pyramid have tremendous purchasing power if given the right tools and
things to buy.



Adding phones to this strata has reduced poverty. Adding 10 new phones
per 100 people, 48 million graduate from poverty.

Abundance



16



Education at this level, information!!, helps
empower and reduce poverty.
200 million people learned that diarrheal disease which kills 660,000 people
in India each year can be prevented simply by washing one’s hands. This
helps people stay in school, work, and reduce poverty.



For the first time t
his group’s voice is being heard and ideas are being
created

Quadir’s Bet



Iqbal Quadir

Grameenphone transformed life in Bangladesh by creating
cheaper phones and putting them in the hands of the
BoP consumers (Bottom
billion)



Created banking system where t
here had been none before because of
mobile banking which has experienced exponential growth in developing
countries such as Kenya.



This empowers the individual like never before.

Resource Curse



Using information to use crowdsourcing of tiny jobs

known as

microtasking

give the poor access to novel revenue streams that further
break poverty cycle.



The free flow of information enabled by cell phones replaces need for free
press and, as recent events in Middle East bear out, can have serious
impacts on spread

of democracy. p. 147



Today’s mobile device is the new personal computer. P. 148 [What is the
ramification for education? }
question mine

The World is my Coffee Shop



Coffeehouses became vehicle to share information in 18
th

century.



Idea sharing works re
ally well in cities because urban spaces are perfect
innovation labs.



The more complicated, multilingual, multicultural, wildly diverse the city, the
greater its output of new ideas. [coincides with Richard Florida’s discussion
of what makes creative citie
s.]



But the influence of the city is pale in comparison to the influence of the
World Wide Web. The net is allowing us to turn ourselves into a giant,
collective meta
-
intelligence. P. 149



Renewable energy, wireless, etc may hold the keys to addressing the

environmental challenges from the top to the base of the economic pyramid.



The influx of intellect from the rising billion may turn out to be the saving
grace of the entire planet. P. 150

Dematerialization and Demonetization



Today’s greatest commoditie
s

aren’t physical objects, they’re idea.



Fastest
-
growing job category is the “knowledge worker.” P. 151



Can reshape markets by making goods more accessible and profits in the
pockets of the consumer as on ebay.

Abundance



17

Part Five

Peak of the Pyramid

Chapter 13

Ene
rgy

Energy Poverty



Energy is arguably the most important lynchpin for abundance.



Enough solar power hits one square kilometer of Africa’s deserts to produce
the equivalent of one and a half million barrels of oil or three hundred
thousand tons of coal.



Afr
ica has 9 times the solar potential of Europe and an annual equivalent to
one hundred million tons of oil. When coupled to its vast reserves of wind,
geothermal and hydroelectric, the continent has enough energy to meet its
own needs
and
export

surplus to

Europe.

Bright Future



Technology now has a way to turn ordinary windows into photovoltaic panels.



Making solar energy cheap enough for our
rooftops

is goal of US Energy
Sety Stephen Chu.



Solar and wind are sources of
electricity

but represent only 40% of
America’s energy needs.



Remainder is split between transportation (29%) and home and office
heating/cooking (31%) Of the fuel used for transportation, 95% is petroleum
based while buildings rely on both petroleum and natural gas.



To end our oil addiction, we need to displace this remaining 60%. The oil and
gas industries are very well funded and very entrenched. P. 161

Synthetic Life to the Rescue



Biofuels, particularly ethanol is disaster

caused
considerable

environmental
damage

and replaced millions of acres of crops produced for food therefore
driving food prices sky
-
high.



Now Exxon developing biofuel from algae.



Algae can produce 30 times more
energy

per acre than conventional biofuels.



Virgin airlines already using partial b
iofuels mix of coconut and babassu oil.



In July 2010 Solzyme from San Francisco delivered 1500 gallons of algae
-

based biofuels to US Navy and won a contract for 150,000 more gallons


Holy Grail of Storage



It doesn’t matter how heap solar energy becomes if

we don’t figure out how
to store it.



Aquion Energy is building a battery that releases energy evenly, doesn’t
corrode, is based on Earth
-
abundant

elements, and, literally, is safe enough
to eat.

Nathan Myhrvold and the Fourth Generation



Myhrvold was Microsoft’s chief technology officer.

Abundance



18



Nuclear power

current reactors are Generation II. It’s Generation Iv that
is of interest

it was developed to solve the problems of safety, cost,
efficiency, waste, uranium scarcity, and threat of terrori
sm.



Generation IV can even shut themselves down without human intervention



Myrvold wants a demonstration unity up and running by 20220.

Perfect Power



How we distribute power is very important. Today we see balkanization



Cisco has made commitment to buil
d Smart Grid, to solve this issue



In next 7 years smart grid will use IP
-
connected sensors and will monitor
energy use and manage demand.

So What does energy Abundance really mean.



Solar power

pollutant free. The new frontier is that we can have energy
dispersed by need that is
non
-
polluting

and even solve global warming.

Chapter 14

Education


Sugara Mitra



“self
-
organized

learning environments

computer workstations with benches
in
front of them. Found out that if “grannies” were put by terminals to
assist, test scores improved by 25%.



SOLES are bottom up. The work is collaborative. Kids need access to
information and “grannies” to support.

One Tablet Per Child



Seymour Papert

kids

learn best by doing, especially if it involves a
computer.



Negroponte

believes every child loves the Internet and two, market not
really interested in low cost computer.



Negroponte learned that if computers are involved, truancy drops to zero.
OLPC inf
luence continues to grow, particularly in underdeveloped countries.
May not have same effect in US because students here see their education
as irrelevant.

Another Brick in the Wall



Current education worried about standardization and conformity instead
of
around creativity such as that advocated by Dr. Ken Robinson
Out of Our
minds: Learning to be Creative
. He says we are headed in exactly the wrong
direction with nat’l standards and Common Core.



Tony Wagner and Robinson say we are teaching the wrong
stuff and it isn’t
sticking. P
.
180



Industrial model of education in memorizing facts is no longer necessary.
We have Google



21
st

century is media rich and we need to use it so that learning becomes
addictive

James Gee Meets Pajama Sam

Abundance



19



Games
outperform

t
extbooks in helping
students

learn fact
-
based subjects
such as geography, history, physics, and anatomy. Also improves visual
coordination, cognitive speed, and manual dexterity.



Interactive

games are great teachers of collaborative skills.



We need to fin
d ways to make learning a lot more like video games and a lot
less like school.



New York

New School for Design has curriculum based on game design and
digital culture

Wrath of Khan



Impact of Khan Academy and flipped classroom is very powerful. Check out
the free Khan Academy website.

This Time it’s Personal



We need to change how progress is measured. We have to change these
tests.



Students perform better when coached by someone
who cares about their
progress

Teachers are needed.



We need to turn teachers into coaches and change our classroom
management techniques.



Soon we may have AI tutors.



Better
-
educated

people live longer and have healthier lives and create a
more stable free
society.



We need to educate
girls, which

will help raise standard of living, reduce
birth rate, and improve economics.

Chapter 15: Health Care

Life Span



Industrial Revolution started the increase toward longer lives



Information technology now also increa
ses that trajectory

Limits of Being Human



Learning takes time and practice. The brain processes at a limited pace.



In medical school, knowledge is increasing so quickly that 5 years after
graduation, half of what one learns will probably be wrong but no o
ne knows
which half.



No matter, we are never satisfied with our health care.



57 countries don




have enough health care works.



US will be short doctors by 2025 as well.

Watson goes to Medical School



Now have computers who can complete diagnoses remotely.
IBM’s Watson

Zero Cost Diagnostics



Tape can now record information

Abundance



20



XPRIZE offered $10 million to first team able to demonstrate a consumer
-
friendly

low cast

mobile device able to diagnose a patient better than a
group of board certified doctors.



However, se still need to be able to treat and cure the patient. Getting
medical workers to all is an issue.

Paging Dr. Da Vinci to the Operating Room



We are using robots to diagnose in the battlefield with a telepresent
physician standing by. The robots

are skilled enough to assist orthopedists
with delicate procedures such as knee replacements



Robots do allow surgeons to operate
remotely
.

Robo Nurse



With aging baby boomers we are looking at using robo nurses to help
boomers stay in their homes and prov
ide medical care that is cheaper than
home health care workers. Right now they are looking at a robot costing
around $1000. Which is cheaper than a person

Mighty Stem Cell



Stem cells are going to be able to be used to correct chronic autoimmune
diseases
such a

s rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis ulcerative colitis,
Crohn’s disease, and
scleroderma
.



One of next major challenges is to grow one of the most intricate organs in
the human body

the kidney.



This fast
-
moving field will impact almost every c
linical area

Predictive, Personalized, Preventive, and participatory.



P4 (predictive, personalized, preventive, and participatory) is where health
care his heading.



Combined with cheap, ultrafast, medical
-
grade genome sequencing with
massive computing po
wer we will able to be more predictive.



Every newborn will have genome sequenced and we will be able to predict
tendency to diabetes, cancer, etc. and turn off those genes so person is not
affected by this disease.



Will also be able to turn off gene for ob
esity.



Participatory

each of us will be the CEO of our own health. The mobile
phone will be transformed into a major control center.

To monitor what we
eat, drink, how much we exercise, etc.

Age of Health Care Abundance



A few of these technologies will
first make their way to less bureaucratic
regions of developing world rather than bureaucratic USA.

Chapter 16: Freedom

Power to the People



Freedom is at the peak of the pyramid and where this book must get a little
philosophical



Freedom is an idea and
access to idea

Abundance



21



It’s a state of being, a state of consciousness, and a way of life.



What’s within our scope are economic freedom, human rights, political
liberty, transparency, free flow of information, freedom of speech, and
empowerment of the individual



W
ikileaks is an example of how information and communications promote
political liberty and greater transparency.



There are difficult issues such as the Great Firewall of China but the
ordinary citizen has power unlike any time in history to have himself he
ard
and have access to global audience.

One Million Voices



Jared Cohen. Wanted to visit Iran. Although he was now allowed access to
some things, he looked and saw the youth taking advantage of Bluetooth and
accessing information around the world. When a
sked, the young people said
the older generation didn’t even know what blue tooth was so they were able
to use mobile phones easily.



Oscar Morales

activist in Columbia who was able to organize A Million
Voices to turn the war



Twitter was pipeline to Arab S
pring.

B its not Bombs



Internet is also fantastic recruiting tool for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Al
Qaeda.



During Arab Spring, Egypt tried to shut down the Internet to quell revolt so
that now we talk about Web 2.0, we also see Repression 2.0.



But we can make

progress together.

Part Six: Steering Faster

Chapter 17: Driving Innovation and Breakthroughs

Fear, Curiosity, Greed, and Significance.



There are 4 major motivators that drive innovation: 1, curiosity, 2 fear, 3.
Desire to create wealth, and 4. Incentive




First flight across Atlantic was curiosity. Several died trying

Power of Incentive Competition



XPrize puts out challenge in the form of money to create something that will
affect many people. Setting out the challenge creates a mindset that
anything is possible.

Power of Small Groups



Large or medium
-
sized groups are not built to be nimble or to ta
ke large
risks [schools for example

note mine} [This agrees with Clayton
Christensen

note mine]



Small groups consistently outperform larger
organizations

when it comes to
innovation

Power of Constraints

Abundance



22



Actually putting a time line on a prize liberates a

constraint because it
focuses energy and creates a clear target

Fixed
-
Price Solutions



Best way to predict the futures is to create it yourself and Diamandis
believes there is no better way to do just that than with incentive prizes. P.
226

Chapter 18: Ri
sk and Failure

Evolution of a Great Idea



Sir Arthur C. Clarke says, “In the beginning people tell you that’s a crazy
idea, and it’ll never work. Next, people say your idea might work, but it’s not
worth doing. Finally, eventually, people say, I told you
that it was a great
idea all along.” P. 227



Demonstrating great ideas involves a considerable amount of risk. The road
to abundance requires significant innovation and significant tolerance for
risk, for failure, and for ideas that strike most as absolute

nonsense. P. 229

Upside of Failures



Failure is not a disaster It took Einstein a thousand tries to make a light
bulb.

Born Above the Line of Supercredibiltiy



Need to announce ideas in fashion of supercredibility, not doubtful, so that
people buy in.

Thi
nk Different



Apple launched Think Different campaign. You need to be a little crazy to
change the world, and you can’t really fake it.

Chapter 19: Which Way Next

Adjacent Possible



Adjacent Possible means that each new combination opens up the possibility
of other new combinations

Pursuit of Happiness



Abundance is not a zero
-
sum game and we must go away from that mindset.
Abundance is a plan and a perspective



Our perspectives shape our lives



The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.

Afterword: Next Step Join the Abundance Hub

Visit website
www.AbundanceHub.com

Videos.AbundanceHub.com

Facebook page
www.AbundanceHub.com

a

Twitter @AbundanceHub

Singul
arityU.org


Reference Section

Abundance



23

There is a huge reference section with charts and graphs about the topics in the
boo