The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum

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17 Φεβ 2014 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 3 μήνες)

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THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
LICENCE
-
EXEMPT SPECTRUM

Richard

Thanki


ICSS, University of Southampton

Introduction

Me

ICSS

Microsoft


2009 and 2012 studies


former Ofcom
economist and principal
advisor to the
Independent Spectrum
Broker


current PhD researcher


£12m institute at the
University of
Southampton


focused on complex
adaptive systems, such
as genetics, climate
science

and
economics


Important financial and
technical assistance for
the completion of the
2009 and 2012 studies


The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The success of licence
-
exemption

0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Capable devices sold (millions)

2008
The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The success of licence
-
exemption

0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Capable devices sold (millions)

2008
2014
The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The role of licence
-
exempt spectrum in delivering
access to broadband internet

Connecting all the people

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The shape of smartphone traffic

Time of day

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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The shape of smartphone traffic

Time of day

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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The shape of smartphone traffic

Time of day

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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The shape of smartphone traffic

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Share of total smartphone traffic

Time of day

Scaled Wi-Fi
Scaled Cellular
The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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Asia
Europe
N. America
S. America
Africa
Oceania
sites needed (8 x rise in peak traffic)
sites needed (4 x rise in peak traffic)
140,000
to 450,000 extra sites
required immediately


(an
additional 8


20% sites
worldwide
)


At a cost of $30
-

$90 billion
(very conservative)


A minimum of
9,000
-
18,000
in
the UK


The
number
would escalate
quickly in
the coming
years


Additional costs of mobile, absent
Wi
-
Fi

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The global digital divide, and the
role of white space spectrum


Broadband remains
unaffordable and
unavailable for the majority


Many countries have
invested in fibre backbones


But all existing models are
too expensive without a
dense population or large
subsidies

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

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The only model that has proven
commercially viable in rural
areas is that of WISPs


Area coverage limited by high
frequency licence
-
exempt
spectrum


TV White Spaces could
supercharge the WISP model


potentially bring high quality
broadband to hundreds of
millions of unconnected people
for a fraction of the cost of
mobile technologies

The Economic Impact of
Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The global digital divide, and the
role of white space spectrum


The role of licence
-
exempt spectrum in enabling
machine
-
to
-
machine connectivity and the internet of
things

Connecting everything else

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The human internet

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Millions of devices sold

Smartphones
Tablets
Notebook
Desktops
The human internet

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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Richard Thanki

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The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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The machine internet

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Unit sales (millions)

Microcontroller
sales
Computer and
smartphone sales
The machine internet

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

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In
communications

Mobile phones

Fixed line phones

Fax machines

Routers
Inside PCs and
Smartphones

Monitors

Touchscreens

Wi
-
Fi chipsets
In the home

TVs, DVD players

Games consoles

Toys

Appliances
In medicine

Dialysis machines

Defibrillators

Ventillators

Pacemakers
In vehicles

Antilock brakes

Fuel injection

Climate control

GPS
In the military

Aircraft

Armoured vehicles

Missiles

Radios
In cities

Street lighting

Traffic control systems

Toll booths
In the environment

Pollution/air quality
monitors

Weather stations
In industry

Control circuitry

Machine tools

Monitors/sensors
Connected examples

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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Connected
Vine


Sensors to check
soil
moisture, temperature
and light intensity
information


Actuators to control
drip irrigation system


Trialed
and described
by Xiang 2011

Connected Bridge


Wireless sensors
monitor structural
integrity


Products
in
use from
Motorola,
Innodev
,
Microstrain

etc.


Systems described by
Xu

2004,
Pakzad

2008,
Harms 2010

Connected Heart


Pacemakers
and
internal defibrillators
constantly monitor
heart activity


Can upload
information and be
programmed wirelessly


Developed by Elmqvist
1958, Mirowski 1978

Economic value possibilities from
the
IoT

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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Today



Cisco
and
Ericsson
predictions

Our
prediction

Number of connected
devices

4
bn

50 bn

100 bn

Forecast Year

2012

2020

2020

Pairwise connections

8
×

10
18

1.25
×

10
21

5
×

10
21

Ratio against today

1

156

625

Even if each new machine connection generates only one
-
hundredth of the value of one of
today’s human connections, the economic value generated by the internet by 2020 would
be
$
1.4 to $2.2 trillion per year


around five times the value generated by the internet
today.

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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The role of licence
-
exempt spectrum
in the
IoT

Share of machine
connections

Licensed
Licence-
exempt
Licence
-
exempt connections will
dominate the internet of things


Technical considerations


Latency/network control


Battery life and energy usage


Options


Wi
-
Fi, Bluetooth,
Zigbee

etc…


Cost considerations


Substantially cheaper chipsets


No
ongoing

subscription fees

The role of white space spectrum in
enabling the
IoT

White spaces can deliver:


broadband speeds


excellent obstacle penetration


low power usage


Europe has no broadband
-
suitable licence
-
exempt
spectrum below 1GHz


Hindering smart grid deployment (in the UK up to 1/5 of
home meters are beyond the reach of mobile networks)


Licence
-
exempt technologies dominate smart grid in US
where suitable spectrum is available

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

25

How networks built using licence
-
exempt spectrum
help to reduce the fragility of telecommunication
networks

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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Resilience and adaptability

Robust human and natural systems

Examples of natural and human resilient
and adaptable systems

The Importance of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum

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Creating diverse architectures

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
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Without LE

With LE

The role of white space spectrum

In emergencies telecommunications networks often fail


specialised personnel or equipment may not be available


licence
-
exempt equipment can be repurposed easily.


Value of Wi
-
Fi seen in response to Japanese Tsunami, Hurricane
Katrina and the Haiti earthquake, etc.


Often the first networks to go back up


FON made 500,000 Wi
-
Fi hotspots in Japan open access


The range and penetration of white spaces is
ideal

for this
purpose, especially if there is rubble and structural damage


Japan is investigating the use of white space technology
specifically for this purpose

The Economic Impact of Licence
-
Exempt Spectrum
-

Richard Thanki

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