Defining Uncertainty -related to the introduction of DNA ... - asfpg.de

Scientific Uncertainty

-

related to the introduction of
DNA vaccines in aquaculture


By

Frøydis Gillund

Hamburg, January
2007

My PHD project:


”Genetic engineering in aquaculture:
Perspectives on management and
sustainability”



Part of an interdisciplinary project including
fish immunology, molecular biology,
philosophy of science and sociology

Hamburg, January
2007

Outline of the presentation


Walker & Harremoës uncertainty framework


Genetic engineering in aquaculture


Models of the fate of the DNA vaccine


Preliminary findings

Hamburg, January
2007

Uncertainty framework

By Walker & Harremoës:


“Providing a conceptual
framework for the systematic
treatment of uncertainty in
decision support”


Assisting:


Better communication


Thrust in science and policy


Prioritizing research

Hamburg, January
2007

Dimension of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is defined as:

”any departure from the unachievable ideal of
complete determinism”

Uncertainty as a three dimensional concept:




Fig. 1
–

The three dimensions of Uncertainty (from
Walker, Harremoës
et al.,

2003).


Level

Location

Nature

Hamburg, January
2007


Location
: Where the uncertainty manifests
itself within the system


Level
:





Nature
: Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge
and methodology or due the inherent
variability of the system

Scenario Uncertainty

Statistical Uncertainty

Recognised Ignorance

Total Ignorance

Known outcomes;

Known probabilities.

Known outcomes;

Unknown probabilities.

Unknown outcomes;

Unknown probabilities.

Nothing is known!

Hamburg, January
2007

Genetic engineering in Aquaculture


Growing demand for fish and shellfish
products accompanied by increasing losses due
to diseases caused by pathogens and lack of
high quality feed sources.


Genetic engineering strategies like marine
genetically modified organisms, DNA
vaccines and GM plants as edible vaccines and
GM feed, are considered as possible solutions

Hamburg, January
2007

DNA vaccines


Cheap and easy to produce and
administrate


Combat diseases that traditional
vaccines can not eradicate


The IHNV DNA vaccines for
Atlantic salmon was cleared for
marketing by Canadian food
Inspection Agency


Limited scientific knowledge on
uptake, persistence and
degradation of DNA vaccines
following the injection.

Hamburg, January
2007

The natural system

Hamburg, January
2007

The social system

Hamburg, January
2007

Interviews


We conducted interviews with 12 scientists
working in the field of DNA vaccination in
Norway.


The informants represent scientists working in
publicly funded research projects, private
research institutions and management bodies

Hamburg, January
2007

Preliminary findings

Generally
:


The scientists agreed with the model


Few identified adverse effects of DNA vaccines in
aquaculture


Many possible consequences were mentioned, but the
probabilities for these to occur were considered low


Many questioned why DNA vaccines should be
treated differently than other traditional vaccines



Hamburg, January
2007

Location of uncertainty


Unintended immune response most frequently
mentioned as characterized by uncertainty


Intended immune response, the fate of the
plasmid DNA and the inserted genes and
environmental release where also characterized
by uncertainty



Hamburg, January
2007

Level of uncertainty


Research question:



Based on the present scientific understanding, how would you qualify the ability to
develop a consensus model describing key parameters and causal relationship for
DNA vaccination of fish?


Between level 2 and 3 was the most common answer.





Hamburg, January
2007

Nature of uncertainty


Most of the uncertainty was due to lack of
knowledge and methods. Uncertainty related to
environmental release was also due to the
natural variability of the phenomenon.

Hamburg, January
2007