Scientific Uncertainty
-
related to the introduction of
DNA vaccines in aquaculture
By
Frøydis Gillund
Hamburg, January
2007
My PHD project:
”Genetic engineering in aquaculture:
Perspectives on management and
sustainability”
Part of an interdisciplinary project including
fish immunology, molecular biology,
philosophy of science and sociology
Hamburg, January
2007
Outline of the presentation
Walker & Harremoës uncertainty framework
Genetic engineering in aquaculture
Models of the fate of the DNA vaccine
Preliminary findings
Hamburg, January
2007
Uncertainty framework
By Walker & Harremoës:
“Providing a conceptual
framework for the systematic
treatment of uncertainty in
decision support”
Assisting:
Better communication
Thrust in science and policy
Prioritizing research
Hamburg, January
2007
Dimension of Uncertainty
Uncertainty is defined as:
”any departure from the unachievable ideal of
complete determinism”
Uncertainty as a three dimensional concept:
Fig. 1
–
The three dimensions of Uncertainty (from
Walker, Harremoës
et al.,
2003).
Level
Location
Nature
Hamburg, January
2007
Location
: Where the uncertainty manifests
itself within the system
Level
:
Nature
: Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge
and methodology or due the inherent
variability of the system
Scenario Uncertainty
Statistical Uncertainty
Recognised Ignorance
Total Ignorance
Known outcomes;
Known probabilities.
Known outcomes;
Unknown probabilities.
Unknown outcomes;
Unknown probabilities.
Nothing is known!
Hamburg, January
2007
Genetic engineering in Aquaculture
Growing demand for fish and shellfish
products accompanied by increasing losses due
to diseases caused by pathogens and lack of
high quality feed sources.
Genetic engineering strategies like marine
genetically modified organisms, DNA
vaccines and GM plants as edible vaccines and
GM feed, are considered as possible solutions
Hamburg, January
2007
DNA vaccines
Cheap and easy to produce and
administrate
Combat diseases that traditional
vaccines can not eradicate
The IHNV DNA vaccines for
Atlantic salmon was cleared for
marketing by Canadian food
Inspection Agency
Limited scientific knowledge on
uptake, persistence and
degradation of DNA vaccines
following the injection.
Hamburg, January
2007
The natural system
Hamburg, January
2007
The social system
Hamburg, January
2007
Interviews
We conducted interviews with 12 scientists
working in the field of DNA vaccination in
Norway.
The informants represent scientists working in
publicly funded research projects, private
research institutions and management bodies
Hamburg, January
2007
Preliminary findings
Generally
:
The scientists agreed with the model
Few identified adverse effects of DNA vaccines in
aquaculture
Many possible consequences were mentioned, but the
probabilities for these to occur were considered low
Many questioned why DNA vaccines should be
treated differently than other traditional vaccines
Hamburg, January
2007
Location of uncertainty
Unintended immune response most frequently
mentioned as characterized by uncertainty
Intended immune response, the fate of the
plasmid DNA and the inserted genes and
environmental release where also characterized
by uncertainty
Hamburg, January
2007
Level of uncertainty
Research question:
Based on the present scientific understanding, how would you qualify the ability to
develop a consensus model describing key parameters and causal relationship for
DNA vaccination of fish?
Between level 2 and 3 was the most common answer.
Hamburg, January
2007
Nature of uncertainty
Most of the uncertainty was due to lack of
knowledge and methods. Uncertainty related to
environmental release was also due to the
natural variability of the phenomenon.
Hamburg, January
2007
Enter the password to open this PDF file:
File name:
-
File size:
-
Title:
-
Author:
-
Subject:
-
Keywords:
-
Creation Date:
-
Modification Date:
-
Creator:
-
PDF Producer:
-
PDF Version:
-
Page Count:
-
Preparing document for printing…
0%
Σχόλια 0
Συνδεθείτε για να κοινοποιήσετε σχόλιο