Washington State Energy

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21 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 4 μήνες)

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Washington State Energy

Past / Present / Future

Tim Stearns

Senior Energy Policy Specialist

Washington State Department
of
Commerce

Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov

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people

cost

secure

sustainable

pollution

portability

reliability

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Energy

Environment

Economy


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“…
Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices.
The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no
disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability.
Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals.”


Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003


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Washington State’s Energy Profile

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Washington’s emerging challenges


State grows 130,000 people per year


1.3 million per decade


double < 50 yr


273 to house, feed, employ, transport,
educate…


300 new megawatts per year


Can we double system in 50 years?


No new dams sites


15,000 miles lines


New subdivision


apartment


Car culture


walkable

communities?


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Expenditures on Fossil Fuels


Washington State: 1999
-
2008

1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Billions of dollars per year
Year
Fossil fuels, constant 2008 dollars
Fossil fuel expenditures as % GSP
Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits


Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline


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Today


11 million people


Largest
hydrosystem



Fossil fuel
transportation


imported


Car based


Plenty of inefficiency


Centralized generation


Future


20 + million


Integrated system


Clean fuel



Locally produced


Transit and vehicles


Zero energy buildings


distributed

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Energy is a Big Part of “Green”
Jobs

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people

heat

light

cooking

manufacturing

transportation

information

The Science of Climate Change
is Very Strong

“Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures

since the mid
-
20th century is very likely due to the

observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2007 Synthesis Report

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Electricity
Consumption, 18.9

19.9%

Residential,
Commercial &
Industrial, 19.4


20.5 %

Transportation,
44.5

46.9%

Fossil Fuel, 0.9
0.9%

Industrial
Processes, 3.3

3.5
%

Waste
Management 2.4

2.5 %

Agriculture, 5.4

5.7%

WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005)

Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2
-
equivalent

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State Targets
-

Reduce Emissions

Grow Our Economy

By 2020

reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels


By 2035

reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels


By 2050

reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels


By
2020

increase the number of clean energy sector jobs
to
25,000



from
the 8,400 jobs in 2004


By 2020

reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported
into
the state

Efficiency


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“Six Americas”

six groups or “publics


beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values,
policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action

1.
Alarmed

16 percent of Americans

are eager to get on
with solutions

2. Concerned

29
percent

know climate change is
happening, human caused and serious, but they don’t
necessarily see the urgency.
3. Cautious

25 percent

happening natural
or human
-
caused.

4.
Disengaged

8
percent

have heard of global warming but
don’t know

5. Doubtful

13
percent

don’t think it’s happening,
or natural
.

6.
Dismissive

8
percent

convinced
not
happening
,
hoax
or
a plot
.

Listen

-

values
-

motivations common
ground.


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Energy efficiency always
should be America’s highest
-
priority energy resource.

Cheap

clean

reliable

secure


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Energy Consumption per Dollar of Gross State Product
(1990-2003)
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Index, 2000=1
SIC Definitions
NIACS Definitions
Source: EIA SEDS, US BEA, CEA
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Energy Consumption Per Capita (1970-2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Million Btu per Capita
WA
US
WA - resid
Source: EIA SEDS, WA OFM
Conservation is Cost
-
effective Under
Many Different Future Scenarios

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
$0-$100
Carbon
Current
Policy
No Climate
Policy
No RPS
Retire Coal
$100
Carbon
$20
Carbon
$0-$50
Carbon
Dam
Romoval
Average Megawatts

Source: NW Power and Conservation Council
-

Draft 6
th

Plan

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Renewable Energy

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Washington’s First Renewable
“Revolution”


Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to
Inexpensive Renewable Electricity


Aluminum Industry


Defense Industry


Forest Products, Chemical


Rural Electrification



CA:

33% by 2020

Renewable Portfolio Standards

State renewable portfolio standard

State renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.org

/ October 2009

Solar water heating eligible

*



Extra credit for solar or customer
-
sited renewables

Includes non
-
renewable alternative resources

WA:
15% by 2020*



NV
: 25% by 2025*



AZ:
15% by 2025




NM:
20% by 2020

(IOUs)


10% by 2020 (co
-
ops)


HI:
40% by 2030




Minimum solar or customer
-
sited requirement


TX:
5,880 MW by 2015


UT: 20% by 2025*



CO:
20% by 2020

(IOUs)

10% by 2020 (co
-
ops & large munis)*

MT:
15% by 2015


ND: 10% by 2015


SD: 10% by 2015


IA:
105 MW

MN:
25% by 2025

(Xcel: 30% by 2020)



MO: 15
% by 2021

WI
: Varies by utility;

10% by 2015 goal

MI:

10% + 1,100 MW
by 2015*



OH
: 25% by 2025


ME:
30% by 2000

New RE: 10% by 2017



NH:
23.8% by 2025



MA:
15% by 2020

+

1% annual increase

(Class I Renewables)

RI:
16% by 2020

CT:
23% by 2020



NY:
24% by 2013



NJ:
22.5% by 2021



PA:
18% by 2020




MD:
20% by 2022



DE:
20% by 2019*



DC:
20% by 2020

VA: 15% by 2025*



NC
: 12.5% by 2021

(IOUs)

10% by 2018 (co
-
ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increase
in retail sales by 2012;


(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017

29 states
& DC


have an RPS

6 states have goals


KS:
20% by 2020



OR
: 25% by 2025

(large utilities
)*

5%
-

10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)



IL:
25% by 2025


WV: 25% by 2025*


We’re Number 4!

Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. (12.31.09)

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Resource Costs: Long Term

0
50
100
150
200
250
Levelized Life
-
cycle Cost ($2006/MWhr)

Emissions
Transmission & Losses
Integration
Plant Cost
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council


Draft 6
th

Plan

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Initiative 937


Energy
Independence Act


Sets the Policy Framework for Utility
Development of Renewable Electricity


3% of Total Load by 2009


9% by 2012


15% by 2020


State’s large electric utilities must develop
conservation plans to acquire
all cost effective
conservation


First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010
and set targets for 2010
-
2012 biennium



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Bioenergy Development




Biodiesel Facilities


Anaerobic Digesters


Research on Alternative Feedstocks


Bioenergy


Biomass CHP

Not in My Backyard ! !


I

Gregoire approves wind
-
power project

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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

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"In preparing for battle, I have always
found that plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable."


General Dwight D. Eisenhower

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A successful state energy
strategy

balance goals to:


Maintain competitive energy prices


Increase competitiveness


Meet the state's
enivronmental

goals


Be sustainable


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1.
Policy

2.
Mandates
-

create
markets

3.
Tax incentives

4.
regulation

5.
Leverage partners

a.
Private sector

b.
Federal government


Framework for success
-

alignment

Clean Energy Leadership Council



Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders


Charged


How does the state build its clean energy
industry?


Four major opportunity areas


Smart Grid


Energy Efficiency


“Green” building and the built environment


Sustainable biomass, biofuels,
Bioproducts


Major study by Navigant Consulting


Fall ‘10


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Align Core Mission


Grow and improve
jobs in Washington



Align Policies and
Execution


Policy and
Innovation Unit within
Commerce


“Sector Lead”

Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)


Low
-
Income Weatherization
$59 million


State Energy Program (SEP
)

$60 million


$38.5 million for Loan and Grant


$14. 5 neighborhood Energy Efficiency


$5 million credit enhancement for energy efficiency


$500k for farm efficiency tools


State and Local Energy Efficiency and
Conservation Block Grants
$56 million


Most directly to large local government and tribes


$6.4 million to small cities and counties


Transportation planning grants


Resource Conservation Manager grants



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Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)


State and Local Block EE Block Grant
Competitive



$390 million to 8 to 20 district energy efficiency projects


5 to 1 leverage


Large cities, counties, tribes, state


Residential and commercial sector energy efficiency


Also $ 63 million to small cities/counties for energy
efficiency


Appliance Rebate Program
$6.2 million


Energy Assurance
$810,000


Utility Commission Assistance
$900,000


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What’s on the Horizon?

1.
Will natural gas have a new (old) role?

2.
Have high gasoline prices (and the recession)
permanently altered demand?

4.
When will be have a price on carbon
? Can we
massively increase investment in efficiency?

5.
What are the next big technological breakthroughs?



Electric vehicles


Next generation biofuels


Inexpensive
photovoltaics


Zero energy buildings



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-
$ Savings


-
New services


-
Reliability


-
Security


-
Efficiency


-
Environment


-
Safety



Smart Energy

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Key Trends/Observations
-

Energy


Building Energy Efficiency


Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards


Moving toward more efficient building with generation included


Best building practices integrate envelope,
hvac
, lighting and occupants


Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment



Transportation Electrification


Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric
vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries)


Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system


Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid




Wind Energy


State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain


spare
parts, operations, maintenance and training


East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development.


Diverse partners coming together for the world’s largest wind tradeshow.


Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector

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Smart Grid


Region involved in the largest smart grid demonstration project


Grid investments will be key to integrating renewable energy



Biofuels /
bioeconomy



Significant aviation biofuel project to fulfill 15% of
Seatac’s

usage


Public fleets expanding use; nearing 20% on
-
road use in
western WA



State Energy /Strategy / Clean Energy Leadership Council


Analyzing all fuels and sectors


Retain hydro power advantage


clean & cost
-
effective


Innovate new technologies and approaches


Build on the region’s strength


Reinvent fire


Produce


Transmit


Use


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Contact

Tim Stearns

Senior Energy Policy Specialist

Washington State Department of Commerce

Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov

206
-
256
-
6121


www.commerce.wa.gov/energy

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