to secure a clean energy future

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21 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 4 μήνες)

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© OECD/IEA 2012

Tapping technology’s potential
to secure a clean energy future

IEA Caspian Energy Policy Dialogue and Training

3
-
5 July 2012, Astana, Kazakhstan




Ambassador Richard H. Jones

Deputy Executive Director

International Energy Agency

ETP 2012


Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DS

where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating
results



The 6
°
C Scenario

4DS

reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency


The 4
°
C Scenario

2DS

a vision of a
sustainable

energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and
CO
2
emissions


The 2
°
C Scenario

Sustainable future still in reach

© OECD/IEA 2012

Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy
future?

NO


Can we get on
track?


YES


Is a clean energy
transition urgent?


YES


Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidence

in clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency


“the hidden” fuel of the future


3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)


Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter,

more unified and integrated energy system

Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Renewable energy resources
EV
Co-generation
Smart energy
system control
Distributed
energy resources
Surplus heat
H vehicle
2
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress
is too slow in
almost
all
technology
areas


Significant action is required
to get back on track

Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
Low
-
carbon electricity: a clean core

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables will generate more than


half the world’s electricity in the 2DS

TWh

© OECD/IEA 2012

Nuclear and
Renewables

need to dominate
OECD Asia Oceania electricity

Whereas today around two thirds of electricity are based on fossil fuels, nuclear and
renewables play an important role to decarbonise electricity supply under the 2DS.

0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
4DS
2DS
2009
2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
67%
34%
11%
3%
6%
24%
35%
47%
6%
8%
11%
6%
11%
0.5%
6%
5%
2%
6%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS
2DS
2009
2050
Generation share
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012

Acceleration of nuclear, wind and PV needed

Massive deployment of
low
-
carbon

technologies needed,
especially of nuclear and renewable technologies.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Coal with CCS
Gas with CCS
Biomass
Wind,
onshore
Wind,
offshore
PV
CSP
Nuclear
Hydro
GW per year
2021
-
50
2011
-
20
2001
-
2010
© OECD/IEA 2012


All flexibility sources will be needed

Dispatchable

power plants

Energy storage

facilities

Interconnection

with adjacent

markets

Biomass
-
fired

power plant

Pumped hydro

facility

Scandinavian
interconnections

Demand side

Response

(via smart grid)

Industrial

residential

© OECD/IEA 2012

Total benefits of smart
-
grid investments outweigh costs


but
direct benefits of investment may be found in other sectors.

Smart grids offer net benefits

0
2 500
5 000
7 500
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Power Generation from Natural Gas

TWh

OECD
China
India
Other non-OECD
Natural Gas: a transitional fuel

© OECD/IEA 2012

Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’

The CCS infant must grow quickly

© OECD/IEA 2012

Note: Capture rates in MtCO
2
/year

Mt CO
2

Mt CO
2

Mt CO
2

Mt CO
2

Mt CO
2

Mt CO
2

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
6DS
Other industries
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
Industry must become more efficient

© OECD/IEA 2012

Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency
can be achieved through best available technologies.

GtCO
2

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

0
50
100
150
200
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050

Passenger LDV sales (million)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
million sales/year

Manufacturers
production/sales
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
million sales/year

Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Translating targets into action

© OECD/IEA 2012

Government targets need to be backed by policy action

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Space heating

22%

Water heating

12%

Cooking

15%

Cooling and ventilation

5%

Lighting

6%

Appliances

10%

Space heating, 7%

Water heating, 2%

Cooling and ventilation, 3%

Lighting, 3%

Other

15%

Total energy savings


33 EJ

Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Services

Residential

About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between
the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Billion households


Building sector challenges differ

OECD

Non OECD

75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

Heating & Cooling: huge potential

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.

Their huge potential for cutting CO
2

emissions is often

neglected.

Integration with electricity
Surplus heat
Co-generation
Renewable heat
District heating and
cooling network
Emissions must be eliminated by 2075

© OECD/IEA 2012

A zero
-
carbon future looks possible but will be very
challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.

Increase public spending on RD&D

© OECD/IEA 2012

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
USD billion
Energy efficiency
Fossil fuels
Renewable energy
Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
0
1
2
3
4
Brazil
China
India
Mexico
Russia
South Africa
USD billion
2008 non
-
IEA country
spending
- 160
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without
price effect
With
price effect
Additional
investment
Total savings
Fuel savings
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings

Additional investment

- 160
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without
price effect
With
price effect
Additional
investment
Total savings
Fuel savings
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings

Additional investment

- 160
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without
price effect
With
price effect
Additional
investment
Total savings
Fuel savings
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Additional investment

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return
.

USD trillion

© OECD/IEA 2012

www.iea.org/etp

For much more, please visit

Marginal change in primary energy mix

© OECD/IEA 2012


0


50


100


150


200


250

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Mtoe

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Primary energy demand in the Caspian by fuel based on the WEO 2010
New Policies Scenario

Robust

economic

growth,

spurred

in

large

part

by

rising

hydrocarbons

production,

pushes

up

energy

use

with

only

a

marginal

change

in

the

primary

energy

mix


Caspian energy intensity of GDP

is set to decline

© OECD/IEA 2012

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

toe per thousand dollars of GDP


($2009, MER)

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Azerbaijan

Primary energy intensity in the Caspian in the WEO 2010 New Policies
Scenario

Structural

economic

factors

and

some

efficiency

gains

drive

further

declines

in

Caspian

energy

intensity,

approaching

but

not

reaching

the

current

average

level

for

the

whole

world

Other Caspian

Potential for reducing energy
-
related
CO2 emissions

© OECD/IEA 2012

Policies

currently

envisaged

for

implementation

do

not

capture

the

potential

emissions

reductions
.

Improved

efficiency

accounts

for

¾

of

emissions

savings

in

the

450

Scenario
.


Energy
-
related

CO
2

emissions

abatement

in

the

Caspian

region,

by

scenario

400

450

500

550

600

650

2008

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Mt

450 Scenario

Current Policies

Scenario

New

Policies

Scenario

2020

2030

2035

Efficiency

74%

74%

74%



End
-
use (direct)

41%

51%

56%



End
-
use (indirect)

15%

18%

17%



Power plants

17%

4%

1%

Renewables

26%

23%

23%

CCS

0%

3%

4%

Total (Mt CO

2

)

57

110

138

Abatement

Implications for Caspian region

© OECD/IEA 2012


Caspian countries have significant potential in areas of clean
energy technology development and deployment


Even though the region’s share of global emissions is relatively small, it is
critical that all countries do more


The region has much to gain from moving to a more sustainable
development model, not least in order to tackle local environmental issues


The greatest potential in the short
-
medium term is in improved energy
efficiency; requires implementing best
-
practice technologies in all sectors


Governments have responsibility to set goals and over
-
arching
policy
-
framework


But the challenge is large, so industry and the finance community have a
role in implementation and operation


IEA and its technology networks are working internationally on
R&D, roadmaps and best
-
policy practices, presenting
opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation

© OECD/IEA 2012

THANK YOU

www.iea.org/etp

© OECD/IEA 2012

www.iea.org/etp

For much more, please visit