Forex Exposure and Risk

wallbroadΑσφάλεια

3 Δεκ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 8 μήνες)

77 εμφανίσεις

Forex Exposure and Risk


International Corporate Finance


P.V. Viswanath


P.V. Viswanath

2

Learning Objectives


What is foreign exchange exposure?


What is foreign exchange risk?


How do we measure foreign exchange risk and
foreign exchange exposure?


What factors contribute to risk and exposure?

P.V. Viswanath

3

Foreign Exchange Exposure


Foreign Exchange exposure is the sensitivity of real US
-
dollar values of assets or liabilities with respect to
unanticipated
changes in exchange rates.


Foreign exchange exposure =

V/

e


How the value of an asset/liab changes for a unit change in
the exchange rate.


Suppose, we use the euro as the foreign currency.


Then, since the denominator is measured in $/

, and the
numerator is measured in $, exposure, therefore, is
measured
in terms of the foreign currency.

P.V. Viswanath

4

Forex Exposure on Assets/Liabs


Contractual assets or liabilities are those with domestic
-
currency values


Exposure on a contractual asset or liability equals the value
of the asset or the liability.


Suppose there is a bank deposit of

1,000.


Suppose, again, that the exchange rate moves from
$1.2572/


to $
1.2577
/

. Then the $value of the bank
deposit will change from $1257.2 (1,000x1.2572) to
$1257.7 (1000x1.2577).


Hence the amount of the exposure works out to (1257.2
-
1257.7)/(1.2572
-
1.2577) =

1,000.

P.V. Viswanath

5

Exposure for Contractual Assets/Liabs


The positive sign indicates that an increase in the
exchange rate (appreciation of the foreign currency)
causes a increase in the dollar value of the asset.


Hence we say that the asset represents a long euro
position.


Long foreign exchange exposure is when an
investor gains when the foreign currency rises and
loses when the foreign currency declines. Short
exposure is when the opposite happens.


P.V. Viswanath

6

Exposure on a non
-
contractual asset


Suppose a US investor holds shares in PPR S.A. (formerly
known as Pinault
-
Printemps
-
Redoute) shares, traded in France.
The current price (June 19, 2006) of the stock is

97.75, which
works out to $122.89 at the current exchange rate is $1.2572/

.


The group owns brand names such as Gucci, YSL and
Boucheron. According to Yahoo, 12% of its sales are in the
US.


Suppose the exchange rate rises to $1.2577/

. Since PPR’s
products would cost more in the US, its US sales would drop
and hence the stock price might suffer.


Suppose the price is expected to drop to

97.65, or $122.81
(97.65x 1.2577).


Then, the exposure would be (122.81
-
122.89)/(1.2577
-
1.2572)
or
-

160

P.V. Viswanath

7

Exposure on a non
-
contractual
asset/liab


Exposure on a foreign asset or liability can be higher or
lower depending on the correlation between the local
-
currency value of the asset/liability and the exchange rate.


Exposure can be higher than the foreign
-
currency value if
the local
-
currency asset price and the exchange rate move in
the same direction.


This can happen with investments in foreign import
-
oriented
companies that become more profitable when the importer’s
domestic currency appreciates, and less profitable when the
importer’s currency depreciates.


The reverse is also possible with investments in foreign
export
-
oriented companies that become more profitable
when the domestic currency falls.

P.V. Viswanath

8

Forex exposure in bonds


An investor in foreign
-
currency bonds is exposed by more
than the value of the bonds if the foreign central bank “leans
against the wind.”


This means that the central bank raises interest rates when
the home currency depreciates and vice
-
versa.


Domestic currency
-
denominated bonds can be exposed to
exchange rates if the home country central bank leans
against the wind. If interest rates affect stock prices, the
domestic stock market as a whole is also exposed.


P.V. Viswanath

9

Measuring forex exposure


Exposure can be measured by the slope coefficient in a
regression equation relating the real change in the dollar
value of assets/liabilities to changes in exchange rates.


For exposure to exist, dollar values must on average change
in a particular way vis
-
à
-
vis unanticipated change in
exchange rates.


When exposures exist against several currencies, they can be
measured from the slope coefficients in a multiple
regression.

P.V. Viswanath

10

Euro exposure of an investor in DCX


I recorded the daily share price of Daimler
-
Chrysler from
June 16, 2003 to July 1, 2004 (Yahoo) and computed the
daily return.


I then took the change in the


exchange rate and regressed
the former (DCX return)

against the change in the exchange
rate, and obtained:


R
DCX

= 0.000162


0.01912 (%

e)


N = 217, R
2

= 0.002, t
-
stat for slope =
-
0.628


No evident exposure


How do we interpret this? 52% of DCX’s sales are in the US
and 33% in Europe (Yahoo).


P.V. Viswanath

11

Forex Risk


Forex risk is measured by the standard deviation of
domestic
-
currency values of assets or liabilities attributable
to unanticipated changes in exchange rates.


It can be computed as

.

(

e
u
)


If the foreign currency is the

,


is measured in

, e
u

and
hence

(

e
u
) are measured in $/

; hence risk is measured in $
unit
s of volatility.


In our case,

(

e
u
) = 0.016219; hence

.

(

e
u
) =
(
0.01912)(
0.016219)*365 = 11.32% per year.


Keep in mind, however, that the t
-
statistic is much below 2.0

P.V. Viswanath

12

Forex Risk and IRP


Foreign exchange risk is positively related to both exposure
and the standard deviation of unanticipated changes in
exchange rates.


When a foreign currency
-
denominated security is not
hedged with a forward exchange contract, it is exposed,
irrespective of whether interest rate parity holds.


If IRP holds, a $1 investment in the euro, appropriately
hedged, will generate (f
1
/e
0
)(1+r

); if IRP holds, this will
equal (1+r
$
). There is no exposure, due to the hedging.


However, if
we have not hedged our exposure, then there
will be exposure, whether or not IRP holds, equal to
(1/e
0
)(1+r

) and forex risk equal to
(1/e
0
)(1+r

).

(

e
u
).


P.V. Viswanath

13

Forex Risk and PPP


On the other hand, if PPP holds, there will be no exposure.


This is because, according to PPP, P
$

=
e.
P
£


If exchange rates change, foreign prices are going to adjust
so that domestic values do not change.


If individual asset values do not always change by the
overall rate of inflation for a country but on average change
at the rate of inflation, exposure is zero if PPP holds on
average.


With random departures from PPP, there is an added source
of risk but this is part of the total risk, not the foreign
exchange risk.


P.V. Viswanath

14

Operating Exposure


The sensitivity of operating income to changes in exchange
rates is called operating exposure and the standard deviation
of operating income due to unanticipated changes in
exchange risk is called operating risk.


If PPP always holds exactly and market prices and
production costs always move in line with overall inflation,
there is no operating exposure or operating risk. If PPP
holds only on average and prices and production costs move
on average at the overall rate of inflation, there is still no
exchange rate exposure or risk, but there is greater total risk.

P.V. Viswanath

15

Operating Exposure and PPP


Consider a UK firm exporting to the US. His profits in $
equal


= (ep
£
-
c
$
).q


Suppose the exchange rate changes. Then, assuming that
there is no impact on q, we have:




/

e = q[p
£
+e

p
£
/

e]


If PPP holds, then

p
£
/

e =
-
p
$
/e
2
. Substituting above, we
see that

/

e = q[p
£
-
p
$
/
e] = 0.


Hence if PPP holds, then there is no operating exposure.


If, however, an individual company’s prices and costs do not
change at overall inflation rates, then there will be operating
exposure, even if there are no overall deviations from PPP.