ESHMC Meeting Notes
Introductions were made, and an attendance list was circulated. The following were
present at the meeting:
*Present but did not sign attendance sheet.
Rick Allen, Lyle Swank, and Stacey Taylor
joined the meeting via Polycom.
Rick Allen offered comments on pages 9 and 10 (Item 12) in the minutes of the June
summarized what has been done to update the calculation
irrigated lands recharge
for ESPAM version 2.
Various problems and concerns
with the current approach were discussed, and Rick Allen provided explanations and
insight into the data and calculations. He suggested a quality control review of
and thought there may be some weakness in the ET Idaho
information. Rick and Mike agreed that the calculation of infiltration in dormant turf
may not be a good proxy for what is happening on the ESPA. They both
recommended that the
method used in ESPAM 1.1 to derive NIR also be used for
ESPAM 2, and that Mike and Rick would continue to work on developing a new
method. Rick added a concern that variable textures in lava rock could impact
residual moisture evaporation, and that new c
alculations would be needed to take this
Willem Schreuder wanted to know the significance of not being able to derive better
or more accurate numbers for NIR. Bryce Contor said that most NIR occurs on lava
rock, and he suggested
ating BSU’s capacity to assist in the calculations using
the VIC model. Willem asked about the premise of the calculations in the VIC
model, and Bryce was not sure. Willem asked the committee what is the amount of
recharge to be expected on lava rock. R
ick Allen responded that at least 50% of the
precipitation on lava rock percolates, and he recommended investigat
evaporation potential from lava rock. He went on to say that it is good to compare
independent methods such as the simulated time seri
es weather data that is an input to
the VIC model that BSU is using. He concluded that the same precipitation data that
is incorporated into the METRIC model be used for NIR calculations
o that the
systems are consistent.
Chuck Brockway asked what
the input volume is for NIR, and Bryce responded
approximately 700,000 AF. Willem expressed the concern that we are working with
a large recharge term in the center of the ESPA that PEST uses to adjust the
distribution of transmissivity and water levels.
Willem then asked how the NIR
calculations affect the temporal distribution of recharge, and Bryce responded that the
1.1 and the ET Idaho algorithms were about the same. Chuck
Brockway then said that he agreed the committee should go back
to the ESPAM
version 1.1 method for now. Bryce added that he thought there would be value in
pursuing a refined calculation
because of the way ET Idaho treats the timing of
Mike McVay then presented work he had completed on the
synoptic ground water
. He began by reviewing and refining the work done by Nathan
Erickson for 1980, 2001, and 2002.
He developed a refined database of wells
development of the potentiometric surface maps from the synoptic wat
measurements. Mike’s database is transparent so all users can see his approach. He
used survey data and the 10 meter National Elevation Dataset (NAD) to obtain
elevations. The database includes water level data, well logs, a set of data and log
used in the contouring, elevation logs, and a set of wells removed. He contoured the
data on 50 ft intervals, removed perched water levels, and pulled out other “bull
eyes” or anomalies.
Chuck Brockway asked
what the width of the band was for the
Mike responded 2 months, but that most data fall within a couple of weeks. Willem
asked if the wells removed for the maps were consistent, and Mike said yes. Hal
Anderson asked what the criteria were for the bull’s eyes. Mike said that it usually
as an anomaly created by one well
, but it could be several wells, and that he tried to
obtain the picture of regional ground water flow. Mike showed a PowerPoint of the
wells used to construct the contour maps. Willem asked if Mike incorporated a
function in the construction, and Mike said no.
Willem then suggested that
Mike consider a first order drift function especially for the upper end of the aquifer.
Mike then showed the water level change maps and explained his methodology in
them. Although he used filtering in the development of the
potentiometric surface maps, he did not carry the filtering into the change maps.
Bull’s eyes were shown including one in the Oakley fan and one near Wendell.
Chuck Brendecke asked what the caus
e was for the bull’s eye in Wendell, and Mike
did not know. Chuck Brockway asked if Mike looked into the construction of the
well near Wendell, and Mike said he did not.
that Mike look at the
construction and the hydrograph for that well
Mike said that he did look at the
hydrograph for the deep wells in the Oakley fan, and the data showed a long term
decline. Mike added that the fall synoptic and change maps were much more
complicated that the spring maps. Chuck Brockway asked if Mike
calculations, and Mike indicated that he
ould. Bryce recommended that he use the
calibrated model storage coefficient, and Willem said use an approximation for this
Chuck Brendecke recommended that IDWR perform volume changes for
increments when synoptic measurements were taken.
Lyle Swank asked why the water level change map for the period from fall 2001
through fall 2008 showed an increase, and Bryce responded that it could be from the
increase in precipitation in 2006 and
in 2008. Lyle indicated that a severe drought
was experienced in the fall of 2001, and that recent years were more stable. He
agreed with Bryce.
Chuck Brendecke asked if the fall of 2001 was not a good
starting point for a change map, and Lyle said tha
t severe drought was not a good
starting point. Bryce said that the data is limited by when the synoptic were funded.
Chuck Brendecke asked about the wells in the synoptic database. Mike said that the
measurements were performed by IDWR, the USGS, an
d consultants. There are all
this well database is a superset of the National Water Information System database
(NWIS), and Allan Wylie responded yes plus other wells.
Bryce asked why the
Water Management District wells were not included, and Mike said that there was
redundancy in those wells.
Allan Wylie said that in ESPAM version 1.1, the wells that Nathan Erickson used for
the development of potentiometric surfa
on the synoptic
were then used for model calibration. Willem commented that we
calibrate to the well data not the maps. Allan responded that for any well that Mike
includes, the data goes into calibration.
recently pumped wells are
excluded. Willem said that where there only a few wells that each measurement
makes a big difference in calibration. Chuck Brockway
commented on the
representation of the change in the Oakley fan area. Mike indicated it was
that were creating the severe drawdown contours. Chuck questioned whether it is
representative of the change in this area. Mike conceded that it was very difficult to
contour the area. There are faults
and the geology is complex. Chuck Brockway
also pointed out that the southwest part of the A & B Irrigation District shows a large
decrease. Willem said that it is not as big as the negative change in other areas.
IDWR agreed to post the database that Mike used for the maps.
The ESHMC agreed
water level calibration targets for ESPAM version 2 should come from the
wells used in the change maps.
Jim Brannon briefed the committee on his progress in reviewing the
ssing tool for
ESPAM version 2
input data files or datasets. The programming
consists of approximately 1300 lines of code in the PERL programming
language. Jim believes the code is very reliable but different than other languages
that he is familiar with. Bryce pointed out
is being used for
time by the ESHMC in the calibration of ESPAM version 2. Jim went on to say that
he has been going through the programming logic with a high level of interest and has
been concentrating on the important parts and co
mponents. He is also creating
diagrams of what the tool is doing.
Finally, he is putting the datasets to tests to
ensure their accuracy and checking
to make sure all cases are handled. Jim
reported that his effort is in progress and that he ha
s seen no problems or anything
suspicious or unusual.
He had not performed any data testing yet. Finally, Jim
recommended that the committee allow him time to finish the high level diagram for
review and comparison to the conceptual model.
asked if Jim
able to look at soil moisture, and Jim said yes and there
is a block of code (about 20 lines) within the On
farm budget. The On
art of the high level diagram. Bryce pointed out that there are changes
in the NIR
component that should be considered during the comparison to the
conceptual model. Willem said there is not anything to compare the new code with
unless one performs hand calculations.
Willem went on to explain aspects of the PERL and PYTHON code
what can be
done to shorten PEST runs. He said the PYTHON programming may not result in
faster runs tha
PERL because there are lots of nested d
Willem added that
the output calculations and error trapping reduce memory usage. Willem asked Jim if
the core section of
was converted to PYTHON, would that help make it
easier to read the code. Jim said he was comfortable in PERL. Rick Raymondi
he will continue
his effort to write the code in PYTHON, and Willem said
yes. Willem said he is trying to solve the performance bottle neck. He said PYTHON
is less complex and easier to read than FORTRAN and that he hopes his work will
p the overall effort.
Jim asked if a graphical diagram is agreeable to the committee even though his final
product is taking a little longer than he thought, and Allan and Rick Raymondi said
yes. Willem said the committee needs to understand the
thms better and there
are lots of devils in the details. Jim said
doesn’t look like
there are significant
versions 3 and 4. Jim asked Allan if he will use PYTHON, and
Allan said yes if it is faster. Jim ended the conversation by
saying that he hopes the
flow chart will help anyone who wants to rewrite the code, and
Willem added that it
will be good for documentation.
Jim Brannon also
updated the committee
on his effort to
complete the quantification
at the National Fish Hatchery
Chuck Brendecke had
made Jim aware of a data problem in 2005, and Jim said the errors resulted from a
construction bypass at Main Spring. Jim said that the
had collected data during
the bypass effort
and the corr
ect data had been inserted to fix the database. He
showed the committee the web site and where the
new data had been updated and
assured the committee that all graphics had been updated. Rick Raymondi asked if
the discharge to the slough had been added t
o the database, and Jim said he had not
yet heard from the NFH regarding if the data exist.
briefed the committee on gage installations completed at the Bridal Veil
spring and the ABC complex at the SeaPac facility. Mat show photogra
phs of Bridal
Veil springs, summarized the water rights, and discussed the historical flow data. The
springs discharge from 2 culverts into the hatchery raceways. Dop
ler flow meters
were installed at the outlets and the stage is read in one channel. Th
e flows are
combined. Mat reported that it is difficult to provide a QC check on the flows, but a
location above the falls
measured with good accuracy ( within 2
shows good correlation with the combined flow meters. Mat said that more wor
verify a good QC measurement location.
Mat also mentioned that the installation at the ABC spring complex is complete with
a broad crested weir installed last January. Installation braces were used to tie down
the weir. Mat showed raw an
d corrected flow measurements from the ABC
and explained the correction used for the discrepancy between the weir and the flow
Allan Wylie presented a discussion of the progress in calibrating model spring flow
ets. He indicated
that in the NFH model cell
there are 17 springs
. Some are
springs (9 of 17),
some emerge at SeaPac. All
n showed the range in elevation
data for the springs from Covington and Weaver (USGS, 1990). I
n an adjacent model
there are 8 springs in the Thousand Springs complex
are used by the
power plant with the addition of flow from Sand Springs which emerges in an
The flows were not separated in the power consumption data
received from Idaho P
Allan also showed the range in elevation of these
Allan pointed out that in the ESPAM version 2 cell output, there are
drains available at different elevations, and the conductance for each one of the
is calibrated separately.
He added that
the total cell
drains added together
, thus, PEST calibrates total cell discharge, not
individual spring discharge
Scale the data up to represent all the springs
Modify MODFLOW to output drain discharge not
by model cell
Develop utility to compute discharge by drain cell in
selected model cells
A debate followed.
Willem asked if we have the resolution to distinguish between
low, medium, and high elevation springs. Allan indicated it becomes complicated
because the SeaPac springs discharge into 2 different model cells and we are scaling
up the discharge based on Covington and Weaver data to represent the output
ngs in the cell.
Chuck Brockway thought that the Covington and Weaver
measurements were “random” estimates and that we need to do better in calibrating
spring discharge. Greg Sullivan said we have the steady state contribution from the
river gages for cal
ibration. Allan Wylie said we don’t have enough data to do a mass
balance in any reach because there is so much discharge into talus and directly to the
river. Allan then said
we need to scale up to account for additional springs
drain elevation discharges to get the cell discharge. Chuck
Brendecke said take the
drains and apportion spring discharge by elevation, and
he indicated it could be a mixture of different springs from different complexes.
Jim Brannon a
sked Allan if option two was difficult. Allan said he did not want to
modify MODFOW, and that he liked option
better. Willem said that option
could be done
if we used the MODFLOW streamflow
. He then
if there are data for Majic Springs, and Allan said we have data for
Thousand Springs, the NFH, but not SeaPac.
John Koreny asked Allan to explain the first option. Allan said for example,
a transient target for the NFH
and Covington and W
at 50 cfs
the NFH discharge
represents half of all spring
discharge in a cell. Therefore we in
by a factor of 2
the total cell discharge is scaled up. Allan went on to say that
, in the end, PEST will
match both individual springs and the reach.
Allan asked the committee if everyone is comfortable with scaling up the cell
discharge. Willem said
we can distinguish between high and low
elevation springs in a cell,
he may not be totally comfortable. Allan briefly discussed
the A, B, and
spring categories and that the lowest weight is given to the C springs.
Chuck Brockway said that he still would like to see an emphasis for modeling to
individual springs, but bec
ause of data limitations, he suggested option 1 as the best.
He recommended further exploring option 2. Willem said that this appears to be a
data decision, not a model decision. Chuck Brockway asked if option 2 would work
on any cell. Allan responded
that he didn’t think we have the data
, but that he
perform a run to extract that information.
Chuck Brendecke recommended option 1,
and the committee was in agreement. Allan said that he will show the cells presented
and how they will be scaled up
in the next meeting. He said that in all other cells, the
complex is treated as
discharge so there is not an issue similar to these two cells.
Allan Wylie presented the results of his most recent model calibration run
with the A,
B, and C
his assumptions, the data sets used, the
and MKMOD version (MKMOD4.exe), and the On
adjustable parameters incorporated. Allan then went through the results for
transmissivity, storage, riverbed
and drain conductance, perched river seepage,
tributary underflow, non
irrigated recharge, ET for lands irrigated by sprinkler and
gravity using surface water, the efficiencies for lands irrigated by sprinkler and
gravity using surface water, efficiencies
by surface water irrigated entities, canal
DPin and DPex results, a comparison of measured vs. modeled results for
transient head calibration for wells throughout the ESPA, the modeled vs. measured
gains for Snake River reaches and spring rea
, the modeled vs. measured
comparison for 11 individual springs
finally the modeled vs. measured
discharge comparison for
the Group C springs combined.
Allan suggested taking out the model cell where Lower White Spring emerges since
ischarge is likely related to a block of Quaternary basalt that is separate from the
ESPA. He mention
that the tributary underflow for the Henry
’s Fork and the
Camas and Beaver Creek basin
bumped the upper limit
of allowable flow volume
results for NIR did not make any sense.
The discussion then focused on ET
for lands irrigated by sprinkler and gravity using surface water
and the efficiencies
for lands irrigated by sprinkler and gravity using surface water
and what can be done
ST using regularization. Allan commented that is seemed that for a greater
amount of freedom that PEST was granted, the results seemed less believable. Greg
Sullivan suggested that the parameters should be set instead of giving PEST the
freedom. Chuck B
rockway and John Koreny said that they agreed with assigning
Willem commented that what Allan did was a valid test
by letting PEST
but now the runs should be performed with PEST locked down.
then said that the efficiencies
for lands irrigated by sprinkler and gravity using surface
water did not come into play in the calibration runs and that the efficiencies should be
adjusting other factors.
Chuck Brockway made a general comment that the committee should zero in on
rating the model. Bryce agreed. Mike McVay asked if PEST was finished in
terms of calibrating
, and Allan said he wasn’t sure where PEST was going. Willem
said either tell PEST not to change or tell PEST why we disagree. Allan said he
believed that the
adjustments by PEST were done because it did not have soil
moisture. The committee then agreed that IDWR should make a calibration run with
a fix on the On
farm algorithm for soil moisture. Chuck Brockway added that PEST
could be allowed to adjust parame
ters in June through August, and Willem said he
will check into it with John Doherty. Allan said he thought that in terms of
a soil moisture number should be selected and set for the calibration run,
then involve the soil moisture algorithm an
d let PEST run. Willem agreed because he
thought there was a need to determine what parameters have the largest impact.
Allan suggested that the parameters were transmissivity and river bed and drain
conductance. Willem asked how much surface water is
being applied through
sprinkler, and Bryce said a lot.
Bryce then said that ET is the greatest water budget
parameter, and canal seepage is the next largest
and it is fixed for the coalition.
Allan then commented that the model reach gains in the earl
y and late data period are
out of phase for the Near Blackfoot to Neeley reach. He added that the model is over
shooting the Blue Lakes spring discharge for the recent data. Allan pointed out that a
large portion of the Crystal spring discharge is unmeas
ured. Chuck Brockway said
there have been measurement problems at Crystal. Allan went on to say that the
discharge from most springs is over predicted for the last couple of years of the
dataset. Sean Vincent asked why
PEST is over estimating the season
al amplitude of
some springs. Allan said he observed that if PEST matches the head in wells, it over
estimates the springs, and that he thinks that it
the fixed transmissivity assumption is
the problem. Allen added that there is an excellent matc
h for the spring
discharge at Rangen. Chuck Brendecke asked if Rangen is the highest elevation
spring, and Allan said that he thought so and would check to make sure. Allan noted
that there are some unexplainable spikes in the Malad River discharge, and
agreed to look at the data.
provided an On
farm subcommittee report. He said that the committee
decided to fix canal seepage for the coalition, and that there would be manual
adjustments for other surface water entities.
e added that there is a design
memos that discuss how canal seepage was developed for the
other entities. He said that in the On
farm budget, that there is no difference between
canal seepage and deep percolation. Greg Sullivan said that
canal seepage is a
knowable number for all canals and that the committee could obtain such data from
recharge efforts. Allan said that the scaling factor for canal seepage will be started at
1 and adjusted between .95 and 1.05
, but PEST would be told to
scaling factors as similar as possible
. John Koreny said that letting PEST figure canal
seepage is dangerous
; he said it is a physical process
and it would be better to get
canal lengths and ask for seepage rates from canal managers. Chu
ck Brockway said a
best estimate should be made and canal seepage should be fixed at that number.
Chuck Brendecke said that there is not a big difference between the .95 and 1.05
scaling factor. Allan was asked how the canal seepage was calculated, and h
Bryce determined how much water was required to satisfy crop consumptive use and
have some water left for deep percolation, the remainder was assigned to canal
. The committee agreed that the scaling factor should be
adjust between 0.95 and 1.05
The next subject discussed in the On
farm subcommittee report was irrigation
efficiency. Allan said that it is a function of crop mix
, irrigation method, and soil
type. He went on to say that
the quality of the crop from
alfalfa and grass are
grown by deficit irrigation,
are sensitive to
drought and cannot be grown by deficit irrigation,
and grain is somewhere in
between. Allan added that Bryce has provided a spreadsheet with v
arious crops to
help determine irrigation efficiency. Allan said that the subcommittee debated letting
PEST adjust efficiency, starting a
.8 and allowing the adjustment to run between .75
and .9. Allan said that he thought efficiency should be fixed, and Willem agreed
except for Dietrich and Richfield. Bryce said the soil algorithm should take care of
those areas. Chuck Brockway asked wh
at if we fix efficiency for all area
, would it
be a big mistake. Willem said not a big mistake at first. Greg recommended that we
fix them all, but that it did not have to be the same number. Willem conceded that
these are small knobs, and we could adj
ust the values when calibration is fine tuned.
The committee decided to fix irrigation efficiency in model calibration but that it did
not have to be the same number for all entities
, as a starting place the committee
decided to fix gravity at 0.8 and spr
inklers at 0.85.
Allan then said that there is a disconnection between return flows calculated by the
farm water budget and the measured returns and gave the Heise to Shelley reach
where returns are a significant percentage of the gains as an example.
that the subcommittee decided to tightly constrain the On
farm parameters (DPin and
DPex) so that calculated flows better reflect actual return flow measurement data
that returns needed to be a calibration target
The committee agreed
that returns need
to be a calibration target and Willem agreed to modify MKMOD to output returns.
Finally, Allan said that the subcommittee discussed the effects of soil moisture and
decided that the soil moisture algorithm should be included in the On
reported that the ESPAM version 2 water budget was
completed, and all required input to MKMOD had been prepared. He indicated that
there are 15 input files, and briefly discussed the files.
Bryce provided the
committee an update on the water budget training that is being
planned for committee members and other interested parties. He first gave an
overview of the modeling process and showed how PEST modifies parameters to
calibrate the model and create calibra
ted parameters. Then he discussed the purpose
of the training was to provide full transparency of the water budget, show how to
build model input files, how to run MKMOD and MODFLOW, and how to
summarize output data.
Chuck Brendecke asked who would recei
ve the training.
Bryce responded the ESHMC, and Chuck Brockway added that consultants would
want the training.
Bryce added that a better format was needed for the input files, and
that a decision was needed on format before going forward with developing
Harvey Walker expressed his desire that the model and tools should be user friendly.
Bryce said that tools have been built for ESPAM version 1.1 and for CAMP, and that
useable tools can be built. Greg Sullivan expres
sed caution that tools
cannot be built for every potential use. Bryce concluded the discussion by saying that
levels of training are needed, one for the model, and one for tools.
Rich Rigby provided an update on the ESPA CAMP Implementatio
said that the committee is trying to create areas of common interest with smaller
entities working together in a “grass roots” approach. Rich added that the next
meeting is scheduled for October 14, 2010 and that progress is necessary. He
that they have a few years to accomplish goals and that there is interim funding for
committee proposals. The Idaho Attorney General has indicated that any money
spent on projects is in the form of a loan. The projects being considered are the
reuse, the Egin Lakes recharge, Idaho Irrigation District recharge, and AWEP
He indicated that model runs show that 49% of the NSCC reuse will benefit the Buhl
to Thousand Springs reach and 26% will benefit the Devil’s Washbowl to Buhl reach.
Next he said that the Egin Lakes recharge will be undertaken by the Freemont
gation District and that engineering work is being done to expand
delivery capacity by 30,000 A
F/yr and to create additional canal system
improvements. The total cost is projected at $440,000, and
would accrue to the Ashton to Rexbur
, with 20% accruing to the Near
Blackfoot to Neeley reach. The model predicts that 30% of the recharge will remain
in the aquifer after 5 years. Rich indicated that the projected costs for expanding and
improving the facilities in the Idaho Irriga
tion District to accommodate recharge
would be about $69,000. This would include improving the capability to monitor and
measure recharge which would primarily benefit the Shelley to Near Blackfoot and
Near Blackfoot to Neeley reaches. Finally, Rich discu
ssed the AWEP projects that
receive both Federal and IWRB financing and involve contracts with individual land
owners or spring users.
Rich then informed the ESHMC that the IWRB wants a modeling committee to
making by providing a rigor
ous review of aquifer impacts by proposed
actions. The committee will use ESPAM version 2 when completed, and Rich
noted that the monthly time step is a desirable aspect of the model. Rich commented
that since the Near Blackfoot to Neeley or the Ne
ar Blackfoot to Minidoka reaches
are implicated in the
, it is important to determine how much and the
timing of the benefit that accrues to those reaches. Rich said that the committee
would include Chuck Brockway, Chuck Brendecke, Roger Warn
er, Allan Wylie, and
an individual from Idaho Power Company and that committee consensus is not
Chuck Brockway asked what the Bureau’s capability is for modeling in the upper
Snake River basin, and Jennifer Johnson said that for ground
water it is ESPAM and
for surface water it is MODSIM, but there is an initiative to convert to RiverWare.
Rich Rigby said that IDWR is also looking at RiverWare. Chuck Brendecke asked
who will perform model runs, and Rich said that will be the responsibi
lity of the
Then Chuck Brendecke asked if the ESHMC would inform the “model
process” of the Board committee, and Rich said that has not been defined and that the
Board wants a comfort level that benefits are considered for projects. Chuck
ckway said that the ESHMC is technical, its function is to provide expertise and
determine impacts from modeling, and it has been chastised for delving into the
administrative aspects of issues. Chuck then added that this new committee cannot be
from administration. Bryce asked who will fund the committee, and Rich
said the constituents. Bryce then cautioned that he who has resources will benefit,
and Rich said he is aware of that potential.
Chuck Brockway then asked Rich to explain the issu
es with incidental recharge. Rich
said that the surface water users provide benefits by their operations via incidental
Part of t
his group feels that the price of their participation in CAMP is
offset by th
incidental recharge and that they
should be compensated for this
contribution to ground water. Other
surface and ground water entities disagree, and
the result is that a new funding approach needs to be developed.
set the next meeting dates for November 15
the dates were later changed to November 22
Allan Wylie initiated a discussion on the
subject of model validation.
Leave a few years out of the calibration dataset to see how well the model
predicts those years.
After a few years, conduct a scenario incorporating a few years not in the
Allan added that in the past, the paradigm was that you leave some data out.
model validation sounds good but is almost never done. Chuck Bro
ckway said that it
seldom done, but if you undertake validation you have more
confidence in the model. Then Chuck said that the current model is calibrated 1980
2002 and asked what if we used 2003 to 2010 for verification to see how t
predicts what actually happened. John Koreny asked what the time period is for the
new model, and Allan said 1985 through 2008 and asked Allan to explain the
between calibration and validation
. Allan said that in calibration, the
al dataset is compare
to model output
and parameters are tweaked to improve
validation is done after calibration to compare output to recent
data, but you don’t adjust the model.
Willem thought that the model should be built with a
ll of the data to obtain the best
calibration. He added that for
you could ask the model to
ion that we know the answer to and then observe if the model predicts
accurately. Chuck Brockway said that you could try to see if the
model predicts a
new stress it hasn’t seen. Greg Sullivan and Chuck Brockway agreed with Willem
that the committee should use the full dataset to calibrate the model, and Chuck added
that you then investigate whether the new model will simulate what happ
Brockway said that within the ESPA conditions are not the same because the USGS
data show declines, and when we attempted to validate the springs
the model did a
poor job of predicting the decline. Bryce Contor said that the spring dataset w
Greg Sullivan said if we
validation with the most recent dataset
and if it
goes poorly, we just calibrate to the new data. Greg concluded that we should just
calibrate the model and skip validation.
Willem again said use all the
data to calibrate
and find another way to
verify the model
. Chuck Brockway said people normally
don’t validate the model because it is like throwing out the data, but it would be nice
to validate the model in some way. Willem said that if the model calib
rates well to
spring flow, then it is good. Then you look at a totally new large stress to see how it
Allan Wylie said that with ESPAM version 1.1, we have a calibrated model. We
asked the model what would happen if the drought continued. Th
e model results
made sense in our opinion. Then we asked the model what would happen if the
drought ended. The model said the aquifer would recover but it would take a long
time. The committee felt that it made sense, and we were able to tell constituen
the model. Chuck Brockway asked Allan if he compared 2008/2009 with
the drought scenario. Allan said no, what we decided to do is recalibrate the mode
with the recent data.
Willem said that through calibration, you try to determine i
f the model did the right
thing, then you formulate a question to see if the model behaves appropriately. Sean
Vincent said that we should try to maintain the status quo and see how the model
predicts. Willem said rather you need to impose change to see
how it behaves. Sean
then asked if we can check if we are at equilibrium with no change in stress. Willem
said equilibrium is whether inflows equal or balance outflows.
Chuck Brendecke aske
if we can go backwards where we were in the 1970’s, and
Willem agreed with the idea if spring flows and water levels are available. John
Lindgren asked if we can take the first 4 years of the model period out and see if we
d then we could see what the 1970’s or 1960’s would
have looked like. Jim Brannon said he agreed with Chuck Brendecke, and he would
like to see if the mode reacts to stresses in the way we said it would. Dave Blew
asked if we can see if the model predict
s a 1% decline year after year. Willem went
back to his contention that the only way to validate the model is to make big changes
and see how it does. Chuck Brockway asked if we could see what would happen if
A & B
Greg Sullivan said that the validation
results do not have to be 100% accurate because we still can learn
from the exercise.
Sean Vincent said that the issue is equilibrium, and the only way to verify it is at the
end. Chuck Brockway said we still have
residual impact from the past. Willem said
that the question is can we agree on what the stress should be. Chuck Brockway said
that the model says we are in equilibrium, and Greg said maybe with respect to
pumping. Chuck Brockway agreed with Greg and s
aid that maybe there are other
reasons besides pumping that result in non
equilibrium. Allan said that there were
people that didn’t understand what we meant by equilibrium. Harvey Walker said
there were people that don’t agree or don’t trust the model.
John Koreny said there is lots of work ahead and that a well planned out calibration is
the way to go. He added that we should not leave out anything in the effort. Greg
Sullivan said so the choice is whether to leave out or leave in any data.
maybe we should do both. Chuck Brockway said there is public relations work to do
regarding what the model can and can’t do. The committee agreed that no data
should be left out of calibration for later validation, although Sean Vincent had his
Sean Vincent cautioned that there could be problems with not doing validation. Allan
said we should do scenarios to accomplish validation. Sean said we should make
model runs without tweaking parameters. Willem said we have to give it a problem
before. Chuck Brendecke said we should only use data through 2000
exercising the model without the stress of drought. Dave Blew said a good test is to
see if the model predicts subtle changes because that is what we deal with regarding
Greg Sullivan thought that there is a problem with expectations
because the changes in ET and diversion
are large. Chuck Brockway said spring
users are getting into a risk analysis approach
and the owners need to know
confidence limits. Willem said t
he problem is that you tell spring owners that if
everything else is the same, you should have a 2% increase in flow, but everything
else is not the same.
Chuck Brendecke concluded the discussion saying that the
ability to predict is a function of knowing
all other influences, not the ability of the
Sean Vincent led a brainstorming
of the design features of ESPAM version 3.
He reviewed the previous brainstorming
, and then led t
listing of current model
ryce said that the model was also used as a predictor,
Sean said to run scenarios
, Rick Raymondi said to predict flow to spring reaches, and
Chuck Brockway said to perform multiple transfers.
Sean then showed a comparison
of ESPAM versions 1.1 an
d 2 attributes.
Willem made the point that we should not
refer to the ESPA as a confined system. Then Sean reviewed what was agreed upon
in previous meetings, and he indicated that stakeholders want predictions at a local
scale. Chuck Brockway asked the
question regarding a Class A spring target and
whether we feel that ESPAM version 2 can be used directly to determine impacts to
that spring. Allan said probably. Greg said we don’t have a completed ESPAM
version 2 yet, and Allan said that is why I said
probably. Sean summarized the point
by saying that it appears that the goal is at the scale of a spring.
Sean continued the discussion of model uses and said that one requirement is to
facilitate an uncertainty analysis
and provide additional tools for
certain uses. Bryce
said that more effort is needed in the conceptual model to include the geologic
underpinnings of the Rexburg Bench. Chuck Brockway said the connection between
the Bench and the South Fork of the Snake River may not be accurate becaus
doesn’t reflect faulting that may impact that connection. Allan suggested that the new
model include the Menan gage. Lyle said the gage has been in operation from 2001
to the present. Allan said from the combination of the Heise and Menan gages cou
help PEST in determining impacts to the South Fork. Chuck Brockway said the
geology should be reviewed.
Willem said that the model can always be improved to
represent the system better, but he asked where
get the data. Allan said that
ommends that we find unused wells on either side of the suspected fault and
equip the wells with transducers. Chuck Brendecke said that there are numerous
places to improve the model representation of the system, and he recommended a
review of well logs a
nd preparation of fence diagrams. Chuck Brendecke went on to
say that there may be places where 2 model layers is appropriate
that the committee look at
ESPAM version 2 design components.
Jim Brannon suggested that the Departmen
t look at data management systems
develop a generic layer to make more data available to those who need it. He
suggested a web
based data distribution system. Chuck Brockway said that he would
like to query water rights along with the hydrology. A d
iscussion followed regarding
the deficiencies of the Department’s databases.
Chuck Brendecke said
he would like to be able to select wells to retire based on
re rather than the priority date and gave diagrams of capture areas an
an suggested that what Chuck Brendecke is requesting comes under the
area of model tools. Bryce said that tools to assess management actions that are
targeted to individual uses would be beneficial.
Sean began a discussion of model uncertainty. Greg s
aid that one number is not
always good and that it varies with location and type of effort. Chuck Brockway said
there should be an error bar on spring flow and that model simulations of the impact
to water levels is desirable. Allan that this type of simu
lation is doable and similar to
modeling the impact to a spring but not easy and requires a lot of CPU.
the water level response to a change in stress should be a model use requirement.
Dave Blew asked if the uncertainty will change with the ma
gnitude of stress. Allan
said that it depends
because with distance there is more uncertainty, but if you pump a
well harder, the impact will be more pronounced.
Jim Brannon said uncertainty has
to be at the resolution of the model, and Willem added that
uncertainty is also
determined by the resolution of the data.
Allan Wylie said that for predicting water
levels, we need to keep in mind that the model is 2D.
Chuck Brockway said that a problem in the CAMP process is defining all the
d he gave the domestic water users as an e
xample. Chuck then asked
if we sh
ould consider contaminant transport in the new model. Finally, Chuck said
we need to look at the Oakley fan and asked if we are satisfied
Near Blackfoot reach a
nd the changes in the hydraulic connection with water levels.
Willem said that river stage is a crude representation in the model and asked if we can
represent secondary effects of actions.
Sean then asked if the committee would consider tools for the
layman. Bryce said
that the committee might consider something like a version of the transfer tool for the
layman, perhaps a tool for the consultants, and
other tools for the public.
Dave Blew said the surface and ground water interactions dep
end on the tool that is
DECISION POINT SUMMARY
The following was agreed upon:
he method used in ESPAM
1.1 to derive NIR
also be used for ESPAM
. The data set would be extended
and PEST would be allowed to adjust the
Mike McVay and Rick Allen
would continue to work on developing a new
, and when it is complete, it would be inserted into ESPAM version 2.
IDWR will perform volume calculations for the change in wa
ter levels demonstrated by
the maps produced by Mike McVay.
perform the calculations for all
increments when synoptic measurements were taken.
look at the construction and the hydrograph for the
well near Wendell that is
le for an anomaly in the water change maps.
IDWR agreed to post the database that Mike McVay used for the potentiometric surface
and water level change maps that were based on synoptic ground water level
Jim Brannon will finish the high level
flow chart which will facilitate code review and
comparison to the conceptual model by other members of the committee, assist anyone
who wants to rewrite the code, provide documentation
The committee agreed that IDWR should proceed
with Option 1
Scale the data up to
represent all the springs in the
IDWR agreed to show the t
cells presented by Allan in the September 2010 meeting
and how they will be scaled up in the next meeting
Idaho Power will take part in the presentation.
The ESHMC agreed that the water level calibration targets for ESPAM version 2 should
come from the wells used in the change maps.
The committee agreed that IDWR should make a calibration run with
a fix on the On
farm algorithm for soil moisture.
Dave Blew agreed to look at the Malad River discharge to determine if the spikes in the
data could be explained.
The committee agreed that the scaling factor used to adjust canal seepage should
and only be allowed to adjust between 0.95 and 1.05
The committee decided to fix irrigation efficiency in model calibration but that it did not
have to be the same number for all entities.
Starting values are 0.8 for gravity and 0.85
ommittee set the next meeting dates for November 15
, 2010. (Note
dates were later changed to November 22
The committee agreed that no data should be left out of calibration for later validation,
although Sean Vincent ha
d his reservations.