Sustainable Development Criteria to Set the Agenda for ...

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9 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
CRITERIA TO GUIDE ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH FOR
CLIMATE MITIGATION


Sanford E. Gaines

Guest Professor, Department of Law

Business and Social Sciences, Aarhus
University

The Energy


Climate Dilemma


Increasing

energy

demand



electricity

demand

≈200% of 2008 by 2035


80% of
increase

from
developing

countries


1.4 billion
people

without

electricity

today


Fossil
fuels

expected

to
remain

major
source



Increasing

greenhouse

gas emissions


CO
2

emissions in 2035 ≈33%
higher

than

today


2010
energy
-
related

CO
2

emissions 30.6
Gt


IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 ;
press

release

30.5.2011


Current

energy

mix

is not
sustainable



Source
: IPCC,
Special

Report

Renewable

Energy
Sources
, Summary for Policy
Makers

(2011)

Renewable

energy

sources

are

the
solution to the dilemma

Sustainable
development
:

principles
,
framework
, and
criteria


Sustainable
development

principles


Our

Common

Future



Millennium
Ecosystem

Assessment



framework

for
analysis



Social
-
ecological

resilience

theory


Environmental

management and
governance

criteria

for decision
makers

Sustainable
development

principles


Broad

concept

of
development

and
holistic

thinking


Careful
,
integrated

analysis

of


environmental

(
ecological
),


economic
, and


social
consequences



Equity

considerations


Intergenerational

equity


sustain

the
ability

of future generations to
meet

their

own

needs


Intra
-
generational

equity



providing

access

for all to
resources

essential

for a decent
life

and
personal

and social
development



Millennium
Ecosystem

Assessment

Framework

Social
-
ecological

resilience

theory


Resilience
:


“the capacity [of complex adaptive systems] to
absorb shocks while maintaining function”



“Resilience in
social
-
ecological

systems is the
key to sustainable development. To sustain
development in a world in transformation,
policy must enhance resilience and sustain
social ecological systems in the face of
surprise, unpredictability and complexity.”


Flexibility

in social systems and institutions


Adaptability

and promotion of
learning


Social
structures

that

do not limit options


Openness

of institutions


participation


Significance

of
local

decision
making


Effectiveness

of
multilevel

governance



Overall
:
”…
strengthening

the
ability

to deal
with

uncertainties

and
surprises
,
rather

than

attempting

to
control

nature,
maintain

once

and for all a given social
or

ecological

situation
or

counter

any

change
.”


From Jonas Ebbesson, The
rule

of
law

in
governance

of
complex





social
-
ecological

changes

(2010)

Salient

Social Elements in
Resilience

Theory


Adaptive
governance



Transformability

into

improved

systems


Emphasis

on

learning


innovation


experimentation


Multilevel

governance

(polycentricity)


Climate change is a global challenge requiring a
reponse

at the global scale

as part of a `polycentric approach
´

(
Elinor

Ostrom

2009)


”An adaptive
governance

framework

relies

critically

on

the
collaboration

of a
diverse set of
stakeholders

operating at
different

social and
ecological

scales

in
multi
-
level

institutions and
organizations
.” (C.
Folke

2006)


No or very little top
-
down direction


”dynamic efficiency is frequently … enhanced” by governance at multiple levels with
some degree of autonomy.”


”Clumsy” approaches
--

”messy and non
-
hierarchical in structure”


Openness


Many different groups and organizations can participate






Governance



Background

settings


economic

development



demography



government

policy, etc.


Major systems (and
their

interactions

and
outcomes
):


Resources


Resource

units


Governance



Users


Second
-
level

variables under
each

system


E.g
, for
governance
:
government

orgs
.;
NGOs
;
networks
;
property

rights
;


constitutional

rules
;
monitoring

and
sanctioning



”…
long
-
term

sustainability

depends

on

rules

matching

the
attributes

of the
resource

system,
resource

units, and
users
.”




Elinor

Ostrom
,
Science
, 24.7.09


Analyzing

sustainability

of

social
-
ecological

systems

Energy system elements in terms of
sustainability
-
resilience

criteria




Access to
low
-
emitting

energy

at
manageable

cost

for
developing

countries


Intragenerational

equity


Economic
, social,
environmental

(
health
)
benefits


Enhanced

social
-
ecological

resilience


Diverse and
decentralized

energy

sources


Avoid

inflexibility

and
governance

problems
with

centralized

systems


Enable

participation,
multilevel

governance


Adaptable
,
resilient

Energy innovation and
sustainability/resilience



Decentralized/distributed

energy

systems


Simple systems for diverse
cultures
,
environments


Matching

attributes

of
resource

system (
networks
),
ressource units (generation) and
users



Sustainability

of
materials
,
production


Holistic

appraisal

of
technology

potential,
trade
-
offs


High
-
tech
,
centralized

systems (
e.g
., fusion)
may

be

sustainable

for
large
-
scale

energy

supply

for
developed

countries

and large urban
areas


Financing

and
governance

for massive
research and
development


Multilevel

governance



Financing

from diverse
sources


international


national
government


private
sector


Governance

(
direction

and
oversight
)


Participation of all
stakeholders


Autonomy

of researchers, but international
coordination

of
knowledge
,
development

Concluding

Thought


The dogmas of the quiet
past are inadequate to the
stormy present. The
occasion is piled high with
difficulty, and we must rise
with the occasion. As our
case is new, so we must
think anew, and act anew.
We must disenthrall
ourselves, and then we shall
save our country.



U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, second annual
message to Congress, 1 Dec. 1862.