Technology and BE - Yimg

Technology and BE

Session
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11&12

Waves of Innovation

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Technology as substitute of inputs

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Malthus theory ignored tech

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Kondratiev and Schumpeter
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1782
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1845
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Steam power
and textile, 1845
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1892
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Railroad, iron coal
construction, 1892
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1948
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Electric power, automobiles,
chemicals and steel, !948
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present
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Semicunductor,
electronic aerospace, petro
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chemical and
pharmaceuticals etc.

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Change is not gentle but like series of explosions.

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Innovation industry lead the economy, pioneers
followed by imitators , crowed, and creative
destruction starts
–

new innovation is needed.

Alternatives

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Saturation in industry and then export of jobs.

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Technological Pessimists
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club of Rome
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1972

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Tech optimists
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Kahn, Herman and Fuller

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Pessimists
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Extrapolated population, resources,
pollution, agriculture and industrial output to the end
of next century
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interdependent model
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crisis can be
averted only if Zero population growth is achieved.

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Criticism
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data is not fully developed, based on non
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renewable resources, less space for tech development,
socio
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psychological considerations are ignored, world is
treated as whole and not in political and economic
entities.

Continue

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Technological Optimism
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based on trend
extrapolation, scenario
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writing and simple
intuition.

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New crisis and unexpected events may divert
trend and alter expectations
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following trend are
likely to occur
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15
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514.

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Post industrial society
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Bell
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Different from
industrial society in five ways
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15
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514
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5.

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May lead to socio
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cultural strife and require
collective regulation

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Criticize both pessimistic and optimistic views.


Continue

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Guider extends Bell’s vision
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powers of mind,
wealth in the form of ideas and tech

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Chips where material cost of production
constitutes only 2%
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main valuable part is idea
and design.

Tech Forecasting

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25% of existing tech replaced every year.

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So managers will have to cope with change through
trends, expert opinion and by creating alternative
scenario.

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Trend is OK so long future resembles the past and
interaction

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Experts
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They too make mistakes
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like Thomas Edition’s
lamp

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Alternative scenario
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Immediate, middle range and
long range scenario
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like Shell Oil.

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Information flow is immense manager must know to
select and use.

Next Wave of Innovation

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Artificial intelligence, Genetic engineering,
bio
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electricity, laser, robotics, digital
electronics, fiber optics, microwaves,
satellites, solar energy, superconductors etc.

Obstacle in adopting new tech

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Difference between invention and innovation

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Artificial Intelligence:
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Performance disappointing
, many companies has closed down and sales
which are expected to be billion $ could not
exceed 600million.

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Allow computer to mimic human being
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as
alternative to human reasoning. Example
software expert system.

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Problem with AI is that researchers lack sense of
market.

Continue

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Genetic Engineering:
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Sales are more than 1
billion $.

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In spite of heavy research expenditure very few
drugs could become commercially successful.
Most still developing product in Lab.

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So many regulators and guidelines unclear.

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Monsanto
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BHG hormone a protein increase milk
yield

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Monsanto herbicide and pesticide for cotton and
soybean. Pesticide resistance crop rather than
pest resistant.

Continue

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Why Technologies fail;
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Because of so many
uncertainties are attached to new tech.

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Role of customers, uncertain govt. support,
striving for constant innovation.

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Tech push and market pull factors
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15
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4

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Japanese innovation style
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15
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5