Technology and BE
Session
-
11&12
Waves of Innovation
•
Technology as substitute of inputs
•
Malthus theory ignored tech
•
Kondratiev and Schumpeter
-
1782
-
1845
-
Steam power
and textile, 1845
-
1892
-
Railroad, iron coal
construction, 1892
-
1948
-
Electric power, automobiles,
chemicals and steel, !948
-
present
-
Semicunductor,
electronic aerospace, petro
-
chemical and
pharmaceuticals etc.
•
Change is not gentle but like series of explosions.
•
Innovation industry lead the economy, pioneers
followed by imitators , crowed, and creative
destruction starts
–
new innovation is needed.
Alternatives
•
Saturation in industry and then export of jobs.
•
Technological Pessimists
-
club of Rome
-
1972
•
Tech optimists
-
Kahn, Herman and Fuller
•
Pessimists
-
Extrapolated population, resources,
pollution, agriculture and industrial output to the end
of next century
-
interdependent model
-
crisis can be
averted only if Zero population growth is achieved.
•
Criticism
-
data is not fully developed, based on non
-
renewable resources, less space for tech development,
socio
-
psychological considerations are ignored, world is
treated as whole and not in political and economic
entities.
Continue
•
Technological Optimism
-
based on trend
extrapolation, scenario
-
writing and simple
intuition.
•
New crisis and unexpected events may divert
trend and alter expectations
-
following trend are
likely to occur
-
15
-
514.
•
Post industrial society
-
Bell
-
Different from
industrial society in five ways
-
15
-
514
-
5.
•
May lead to socio
-
cultural strife and require
collective regulation
•
Criticize both pessimistic and optimistic views.
Continue
•
Guider extends Bell’s vision
-
powers of mind,
wealth in the form of ideas and tech
•
Chips where material cost of production
constitutes only 2%
-
main valuable part is idea
and design.
Tech Forecasting
•
25% of existing tech replaced every year.
•
So managers will have to cope with change through
trends, expert opinion and by creating alternative
scenario.
•
Trend is OK so long future resembles the past and
interaction
•
Experts
-
They too make mistakes
-
like Thomas Edition’s
lamp
•
Alternative scenario
-
Immediate, middle range and
long range scenario
-
like Shell Oil.
•
Information flow is immense manager must know to
select and use.
Next Wave of Innovation
•
Artificial intelligence, Genetic engineering,
bio
-
electricity, laser, robotics, digital
electronics, fiber optics, microwaves,
satellites, solar energy, superconductors etc.
Obstacle in adopting new tech
•
Difference between invention and innovation
•
Artificial Intelligence:
-
Performance disappointing
, many companies has closed down and sales
which are expected to be billion $ could not
exceed 600million.
•
Allow computer to mimic human being
-
as
alternative to human reasoning. Example
software expert system.
•
Problem with AI is that researchers lack sense of
market.
Continue
•
Genetic Engineering:
-
Sales are more than 1
billion $.
•
In spite of heavy research expenditure very few
drugs could become commercially successful.
Most still developing product in Lab.
•
So many regulators and guidelines unclear.
•
Monsanto
-
BHG hormone a protein increase milk
yield
•
Monsanto herbicide and pesticide for cotton and
soybean. Pesticide resistance crop rather than
pest resistant.
Continue
•
Why Technologies fail;
-
Because of so many
uncertainties are attached to new tech.
•
Role of customers, uncertain govt. support,
striving for constant innovation.
•
Tech push and market pull factors
-
15
-
4
•
Japanese innovation style
-
15
-
5
Enter the password to open this PDF file:
File name:
-
File size:
-
Title:
-
Author:
-
Subject:
-
Keywords:
-
Creation Date:
-
Modification Date:
-
Creator:
-
PDF Producer:
-
PDF Version:
-
Page Count:
-
Preparing document for printing…
0%
Σχόλια 0
Συνδεθείτε για να κοινοποιήσετε σχόλιο