Sustainable Fossil Fuels - creden

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

1

Sustainable Fossil Fuels:

The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean
and Enduring Energy

Mark Jaccard


School of Resource and Environmental Management

Simon Fraser University

Vancouver, Canada



January, 2006

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

2

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Prescription


assume humanity should strive for:


A near
-
zero
-
emissions (indoor, urban, regional, global)
energy system with low impacts and risks to land and water



Expansion of system to meet legitimate energy service
needs of the global population


Prediction


given this sustainability prescription:


How will major energy options fare this century and
beyond?



What might such a system cost?



How could we achieve it?

Prescription and prediction of a
sustainable energy system

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

3

Motive: a researcher’s reaction
to strong assumptions

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Troubled by many recent books attributing major global
problems to fossil fuels


war, economic chaos,
environmental harm.





“Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime
in this century unless we can find a way to live without
fossil fuels.”


(Goodstein,
End of the Age of Oil
, Norton, 2004).

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

4

What is the energy system?

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Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Lighting
Transport of goods
Electrolysis
Industrial
-
thermal
Space heating and
conditioning
Primary energy
Energy services
Secondary energy
Renewables
Personal mobility
Energy efficiency
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electric appliances
and equipment
Industrial
-
mechanical
Industrial
-
motive
-
force
Hydrocarbons
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Lighting
Transport of goods
Electrolysis
Industrial
-
thermal
Space heating and
conditioning
Primary energy
Energy services
Secondary energy
Renewables
Personal mobility
Energy efficiency
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electric appliances
and equipment
Industrial
-
mechanical
Industrial
-
motive
-
force
Hydrocarbons
Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

5

Current trends

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Fossil
Fuels
358 EJ
Ren.
Modern
16 EJ
Ren.
Trad.
45 EJ
Nuclear
9 EJ
Fossil
Fuels
920 EJ
Nuclear
90 EJ
Ren. Trad.
90 EJ
Ren.
Modern
290 EJ
Total =: 429 EJ
6 GtC/year

Total =: 1,390 EJ
>20 GtC/year

2000

2100

Population


6 billion

E/GDP
-

13.5MJ/$

Population


10.5 billion

E/GDP


6 MJ/$

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

6

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Hydrogen
30%
Hydrogen or
Hydrocarbons
10%
Hydrocarbons
30%
Electricity
30%
Sustainable secondary
energy in 2100?

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

7

Challenges for nuclear and
renewables


Nuclear power (risk perception)


Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes)



Geopolitical risk


Renewables (uncertain costs with scale
-
up)


Cost declines with R&D and cumulative production



Cost increases from scale
-
up related to low energy
density, variable output and inconvenient location

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

8

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Energy efficiency trend

0
5
10
15
20
25
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
Year
E/ GDP (MJ /$ 1990)
Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

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Challenges to accelerating the
efficiency trend

Ignored costs of more efficient devices


risks of long
-
payback and new technologies



intangible costs of imperfect substitutes


Mega
-
rebound from energy productivity


direct end
-
use rebound



innovation and commercialization rebound


Policy barriers


ineffectiveness of information and subsidies



political challenge of higher prices and regulation

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

10

Fossil fuels:

“the unusual suspect”

How long can they last?


reserves and resources of coal, oil and natural gas



substitution between fuels and with other energy


Can we use them cleanly?


history of cleaning up



new and old challenges


urban, regional, global


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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

11

Hubbert’s peak


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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

12

What consequence?


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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

13

Oil sources and substitution

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

14

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Quantity of gasoline (liters)
$ / liter
Conventional oil
Unconventional oil
Coal
Biomass
Cost of gasoline
?
?
Quantity of gasoline (liters)
$ / liter
Conventional oil
Unconventional oil
Coal
Biomass
Cost of gasoline
?
?
Secondary energy prices and
primary energy substitution

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

15

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Zero
-
emission fossil fuel use

natural gas

coal, oil

combustion,
reforming,
gasification

CO
2
,

etc.

electricity

hydrogen

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

16

Geological storage of CO
2

and other emissions

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Release methane
from deep coal
Deep Saline Aquifer
Depleted Oil Reserves
Pipelines
Release methane
from deep coal
Deep Saline Aquifer
Depleted Oil Reserves
Pipelines
Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

17

Carbon sources and sinks

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0 GtC
1,000 GtC
2,000 GtC
3,000 GtC
4,000 GtC
5,000 GtC
6,000 GtC
Coal
Gas
Oil
Living

PH < 0.3
Dead
F
o
s
s
i
l

F
u
e
l
s
(
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e

b
a
s
e
)
C
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
A
t
m
o
s
p
h
e
r
e
T
e
r
r
e
s
t
r
i
a
l
b
i
o
s
p
h
e
r
e
A
q
u
i
f
e
r
s
O
c
e
a
n
s
O
i
l

&

g
a
s
r
e
s
e
r
v
o
i
r
s
C
o
a
l

b
e
d
s
Source: David Keith

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

18

Zero
-
emission fossil fuels
energy system

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

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Criteria for predicting social
preferences

Projected cost (synthesis of numerous studies)


Depletion of higher quality resources and sites


Cost reduction through innovation


Cost reduction through greater production (economies
-
of
-
scale and economies
-
of
-
learning)


Extreme event risk


Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes)


Geopolitical risk


Energy supply security and political independence


Path dependence


Not a decision criterion, but a long
-
term cost factor

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

20

Projected electricity cost

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Zero
-
emission generation of electricity

(¢/kWh in $US 2000)






Assumed input prices are coal $1.5


3/GJ, natural gas $5


7/GJ, and biomass $2


5/GJ.


2

4

6

8

10

12

(¢/kWh)

coal

combustion

coal

gasification

natural

gas

nuclear

hydro

wind +
storage

biomass

PV
-
solar

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

21

Projected hydrogen cost

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Zero
-
emission production of hydrogen

($/GJ in $US 2000)






Assumed input prices are coal $1.5


3/GJ, natural gas $5


7/GJ, and biomass $2


5/GJ.
See electricity prices figure for electrolysis.


5

10

15

20

25

($/GJ)

coal

gasification

natural

gas

biomass

gasification

Nuclear
electrolysis of
water

Wind/hydro
electrolysis of
water

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

22

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The challenge for nuclear


The limits for efficiency


Renewables versus zero
-
emission fossil fuels

Incorporating all criteria

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

23

Primary energy shares in a
near
-
zero
-
emission future

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Fossil

Fuels


358 EJ

Ren.

Modern

16 EJ

Ren.

Trad.

45 EJ

Nuclear

9 EJ

Ren.

Modern


450

Fossil

Fuels


680

Nuclear

40

Ren. Trad.

30

GHG Emissions = 6Gt/C

Total = 1,200 EJ

GHG Emissions = 1~2

GtC

2000

2100

Fossil

Fuels


358 EJ

Ren.

Modern

16 EJ

Ren.

Trad.

45 EJ

Nuclear

9 EJ

Ren.

Modern


450

Fossil

Fuels


680

Nuclear

40

Ren. Trad.

30

Total = 429 EJ

Total = 1,200 EJ

GHG Emissions = 1~2GtC

2000

2100

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

24

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Energy price increases



Electricity final price increase of 25
-
50% over the next 50
years (less than 1% per year)



Similar increases for clean burning gaseous (H
2

or H
2

mixed with natural gas) and liquid (biomass) fuels


Rising energy cost share of household budgets



Increasing in typical OECD country from today’s 6% to
8% by about 2050



Compare to 20% energy cost share of household budget
in 1900 and 20% in developing countries today

Impacts for energy consumers

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

25

Careful not to bias energy regulation
against clean fossil fuels


Subsidies and regulations that only favour
efficiency, renewables and nuclear


Newer approaches


Multi
-
sector or economy
-
wide cap and trade
(with safety valve)


Sector
-
specific regulated niche markets

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Impacts for energy
regulation

Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

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Conclusion

Energy system should be seen in terms of means and
ends


not good guys and bad guys.


The end is a clean, enduring and low cost energy
system


with minimal extreme event and
geopolitical risk.


In the pursuit of this end, fossil fuels can be part of a
sustainable energy system for a very long time.

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Jan/2006

Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

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For details


order online at

www.cambridge.org



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