Key Challenges for Europe

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Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Europe’s Strengths and
Weaknesses in Key Science and
Technology Domains

Paraskevas Caracostas

Advisor, «

Science and Society

» Directorate,
DG Research, European Commission, Brussels

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Europe’s Strengths and
Weaknesses in Key Science and
Technology Domains


Key Challenges for Europe


Perspectives on Europe’s industrial
specialization


The science base


SWOT analysis in key technology areas


Conclusions

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Key Challenges for Europe


«

Chindia

»


The next technology wave


Global inequalities


Economic Scenarios


Environment/Energy


Demography


Future of Manufacturing


Institutional Scenarios

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Perspectives on Europe’s

industrial specialization

A recent analysis of export market shares (see Eur. Comm., 2005c)
shows that:


in terms of skill intensity, it is very clear that

the EU does
particularly well in the medium
-
high technology
grouping, with a world export market share in excess
of 20%

which is substantially higher than its overall market share
of 15
-
16%. It is also a big world player in the medium
-
low
technology sector although its share in this category is tending to
decline over time. Its relatively poor showing in the high technology
category to a large extent reflects its

low market share in ICT
related industries.


In the overall world market for high technology goods, the US and south
east Asia are dominant. While this dominance to a large extent reflects their
particular focus on the ICT sector, their involvement in other high
technology areas is also playing a role.

Japan has the highest concentration
in the medium and high technology sectors of any of the areas covered.
Over
80% of Japan’s trade are in these groupings compared with less
than 60% for the EU
.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Perspectives on Europe’s

industrial specialization (2)

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

The Science base


Compared to the US and Japan, the scientific
capabilities of the EU are distributed evenly
across all fields of science.
The EU shows no
strong specialisation or under
-
specialisation
in any particular field
.

Conversely, the US is
specialized in basic life sciences and
multidisciplinary sciences and under
-
specialised
in chemistry and engineering sciences; Japan
specialises in physics and astronomy but is less
active in biological sciences, computer sciences,
earth and environmental sciences, and
mathematics and statistics.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Countrywise distribution of Highly Cited Scientists
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mathematics
Physics
Geosciences
Space Sciences
Materials Science
Engineering
Computer Science
Chemistry
Pharmacology
Biology & BioChemistry
Plant & Animal Science
Molecular Biology & Genetics
Microbiology
Immunology
Clinical medicine
Psychology/ Psychiatry
Neuroscience
Ecology/Environment
Agricultural Sciences
Social Sciences
Economics/Business
US
UK
Germany
Japan
Canada
France
Australia
Switzerland
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
Israel
Belgium
Denmark
New Zealand
Spain
Austria
PR China
India
Finland
Norway
S. Africa
Russia
Taiwan
US scientists dominate in each of the 21 subject areas of science

USA

(Source:

Basu, 2004)

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

S
trengths

W
eaknesses

O
pportunities

T
hreats


analysis

in key technology areas


Pervasive Technologies


Systemic Transition Technologies


Emerging/Converging Technologies

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas


Pervasive Technologies/ICTs:
The EU is
strong in a few sectors of ICT (mobile, services,
embedded systems, microsystems, application software)


0
0.5
1
1.5
2
generic communication
wired comm
telephonic comm
positioning
wireless comm
microprocessors
data comm
optical comm
Encryption
visualisation
solar cells/optical sensors
batteries
sensors
storage
generic processing
applications of processing
printers
Europe’s revealed
technological
advantage in
various
information
society
technologies,
1996
-
1998
(FISTERA, 2005)


Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas


Pervasive Technologies/Biotechnology


At the end of 2004 the biotechnology
industry in the eighteen European

countries surveyed by Critical I (2006):

• Had 2163 companies (compared to 2200
in 2003)

• Employed approximately over 96,500
people, including 42,500 in R&D

(96,000 in 2003 with 41,000 in R&D)


Spent about

7.6 billion in R&D (

7.6
billion in 2003)

• Generated over

21.5 billion revenue
(

20.5 billion in 2003)

• Raised

1.1 billion in venture capital in
2004 (

787 million in 2003)

• Raised a total of

2.1 billion through
equity in 2004 (

1.45 billion in 2003)

In 2004, the US

biotechnology industry:

• Comprised 1991 companies (2003: 1975)

• Employed approximately 190,500 people
(2003: 170,500)

• Spent

21 billion on research and
development (2003:

20 billion)

• Generated over

41.5 billion of revenue
(2003: nearly

40.5 billion)

• Raised

2.5 billion in venture capital in
2004 (2003:

2.2 billion)

• Sold an additional

5.3 billion worth of
equity


largely through the public

markets (2004:

3.5 billion)

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Pervasive Technologies/Production Technologies/Materials

Source: CM International, FUTMAN, 2003

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Pervasive Technologies/Production Technologies/Services

Today, in Europe there is a number of research institutes which operate
on high international research standards in certain areas of service
research (for ex. service standardization, service engineering and
service work design).

Though, on the European level there is a lack of centres of excellence
which are able to cover the broadness of service research challenges in
an interdisciplinary way as well as to concentrate resources and know
-
how in order to be able to shape the international discourse of research.

In Europe technology development, goods production
-
oriented research
and practice are well connected. But to service research, such a
statement can be applied only on a

limited scale.

It is necessary to raise the so far limited readiness/tradition of service
companies for systematic research and development and for
participating in collaborative development projects with science.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Systemic transition technologies/Renewable Energy
:


Europe as a whole (European Commission and its Member states) puts
more public resources in non nuclear energy research than its
competitors, especially in the area of renewable energies.

Europe is
relative weak in comparison with the US and Japan in moving forward with
the most promising technologies such as hydrogen and fuel cell based
technologies, while at the same time
the European continent is leading in
solar, wind and geothermal energy technologies
.

The US have been overtaking the EU in the gas turbine business, Japan is in
the process of doing the same in the PV area and in the fuel cell domain
where most of the industrial advances appear to be carried out in the US.

There is a strong European base in fundamental science and technology areas
of relevance to key energy technologies and in some areas, ambitious
experiments and demonstrations are set up.

Apart from wind where European industry has definitely taken the lead
following its economical success, most of the “minor” technologies (solar
thermal, geo thermal, ocean energy, etc…) have still to materialise in terms
of business success and significant contributors to the energy mix.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Systemic transition technologies/Environmental
Technologies:


Europe has a well recognised scientific competence

in
environmental research, as well as in research on the
impact of socio
-
economic behaviour on the environment.



In some important segments of general purpose
technologies (e.g. miniaturised sensors, new materials,
some segments of nanotechnology) European research
and development is leading edge worldwide.


In many fields of sectoral environmental technologies
European firms are at the global forefront of
technological developments, building on now almost
thirty years of experience.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Systemic transition technologies/Sustainable Mobility
Technologies


Europe possesses high scientific capacities in the majority of
the disciplines concerned
: sciences engineering, mechanical
engineering, civil engineering, mechanics of the fluids, electronics,
acoustics, energetics, applied mathematics, signal processing……


There are large world leaders in the majority of the sectors
: cars
and commercial vehicles, aeronautics, high speed trains, "complex"
ships.


A high technological level in the fields of motorisation, of electronics,
of the tyres, of the particle filters …


high European standards inciting to innovation and a clear
European policy (see European Commission, 2001,White Paper on
Transport Policy).


A beginning of a European mobilisation for hydrogen and the
fuels of the future
.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Emerging Sciences Technologies/ Nanotech
:




Europe is performing well in this emerging field both in terms of scientific
production as in accounting for patents. The major challenge is to make the
jump from an, by large, academic based activity to commercial applications,
e.g. nano
-
electronics and medical applications.



Europe is strong in the following sub
-
fields of nanotechnology:


Biomimetics (a major source of nano
-
innovations)


Nanomaterials (nanoparticles, quantum dots, thin films)


Nanoelectronics and computing


Toxicology of nanoparticles, both in
-
vitro and in
-
vivo


Nanophotovoltaics


Nanosensor research and development


Nanomedicine


including diagnostics, tissue regeneration and targeted
drug delivery


Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas


Emerging Sciences & Technologies/
Cognitive systems technologies



Europe, which holds a large part of the responsibility and merit for
launching cognitive science and fuelling it with some of its key
insights, has of late been lagging behind the US and Japan, and must
make a very resolute effort to catch up and remain in the lead, in the
face of the increased level of competition brought about by China,
which is giving cognitive neuroscience top priority.


In some areas, such as robotics, neuroscience, psychophysics,
statistical and dynamical models, logic, developmental psychology,
pharmacology, linguistics, Europeans are in the lead or among the
world leaders.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Emerging S&T/Complexity Sciences


A new wave is originating in complex systems
research that is shifting the IT technology
needed to support the activities from algorithms
to programming languages for interaction and
concurrency. The main experts all over the world
are in EU
.


For example in the field of bioinformatics, in
concurrency theory, Europe is the leading edge
of basic research and knowledge if compared to
the USA, China or Japan.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

SWOT analysis

in key technology areas

Emerging S&T/Converging S&T:


Scientific activity in Europe as measured by the
number of publications is overall higher than that
in USA and Japan in all of the convergent
clusters, except in the case of Biotech + ICT
where USA has a slightly lead. In terms if
scientific impact as measured by the normalized
citation score, the USA however leads in all
clusters with the possible exception of
Nanotechnology + ICT.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

The Future of Manufacturing

FUTMAN scenarios (2003)


Under the
Global Economy

scenario,
individual choice by consumers is preferred
and the “invisible hand” of the market will
best co
-
ordinate the policies necessary for
economic development and technological
innovation. Research and technology is
regarded as a key ingredient into sustaining
leading
-
edge progress in globalised
markets, Europe lagging behind the USA in
mission
-
funded RTD areas.


Under the
Local Standard

scenario,
allegiances unite behind collective public
values and consumer attitudes, but
congruence in policy is achieved, not at
central European level, but at regional level.
Influential local citizen action groups go
hand
-
in
-
hand with a decrease in EU
influence on global affairs. A “hollowing
-
out”
occurs in those sectors of European industry
which are prone to commoditisation.


The
Sustainable Times

scenario contains a
generalised acceptance at both citizen level
and at the level of governance that
sustainable development issues should be
taken from the clouds of medium
-
term
concerns and grounded in policies with
immediate effect. Technological and
organisational innovation bring about system
changes and industry becomes an active
mediator of sustainable development.


The
Focus Europe

scenario combines a
high degree of congruence in development
and innovation policies with a highly
individualised set of consumer preferences.
At the macro level, this is a risky strategy,
since Europe’s views and policies on
sustainability are not shared by the United
States and by the big economies of East
Asia. European manufacturing rises to the
challenge and carves out a world leading
position in environmental technology.


Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

The economic scenarios of the
Central Planning Bureau (NL, 2003)


The recent scenarios
[1]

of
CPB tend to show that a
more integrated Europe as
well as a globalised Europe
score both higher in terms of
efficiency/equity trade offs
than a Europe of regions or
a “Transatlantic” Europe;
but the first is more socially
cohesive and
environmentally sustainable
but less economically
effective than the second.


[1]

See Ruud de Mooij, Paul Tang, (2003),
Four Futures of Europe, Central Planning
Bureau, The Hague

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Conclusions

Strengthening Europe’s research identity



To be more attractive, Europe needs a
differentiation strategy
,
based on the strengths of its science, technology and industrial base.
It must specialize and become the place for high quality, high
innovative and value added services
-
products systems as the US is
the place for computer software and microprocessors. And once the
Union has decided around which objectives to mobilize its resources,
the research, innovation and education efforts of member States,
regions and business must be articulated and synergies enhanced
internally and with other partner countries.


The underlying concept for such a specialisation strategy could
be «

sustainable and qualitative growth

»
. It’s at the heart of the
‘Lisbon
-
Göteborg’ strategy and it opens new spaces for technological
organisational, institutional and social innovations.

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Conclusions (2)

Lisbon strategy for a
knowledge
-
based society,
Sustainable development
strategy, Coping with
linguistic
-
cultural
diversity and institutional
complexity,

Challenge of ageing,

Energy transition

Transeuropean networks
and services


Mega
-
cities,

Global diseases,

Ageing of China and
Japan,

Clean transport, Climate
change, Low carbon
economy,

Language diversity and
inter
-
cultural
communication

Pharmaceuticals,
Chemicals,

Electric circuits,
Specialized equipment,
Plastics, Engines and
Motors, Cars, Telecoms,
Electrical Machinery,
Aircrafts, Financial and
computer services

Europe’s
Socio

economic

Model

Communication
technologies, Application
software, Medical and life
sciences, industrial and
environmental biotech,
Renewable energy
technologies, all transport
technologies, eco
-
technologies, converging
sciences and technologies

Global
opportunities

S&T
strengths

Industrial
strengths

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

Conclusions (3)

Recent policy messages:

-
EU FP7: European Technology Platforms and Joint Technology Initiatives
-

The
First 6 Joint Technology Initiatives proposed by the EC:
Innovative Medicines
Initiative, Nanoelectronics Technologies 2020, Embedded Computing Systems,
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Initiative, Aeronautics and Air Transport, Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES)



the Key Technologies expert group (European Commission 2005a) underlined
the necessity for a strategy “
beyond Lisbon
”:


A strategy for transforming EU R&D system needs to be based on a
systemic approach

integrating long
-
term and short
-
term strategies and the
member states R&D systems to obtain synergies and rationalise efforts;


The EU needs to introduce system innovations, i.e. combinations of radical
technological and organisational/social innovations in many areas of
economic activity, that allow reconciling economic, social and
environmental objectives, values and beliefs.


New EU Industrial Policy (2005): mixing horizontal/sectoral aspects


«

Aho Report

» (2006): «

A combination of supply and these measures (on
regulation, standards, public procurement, intellectual property and fostering a
culture which celebrates innovation) to create demand should be focused in
large scale strategic actions. We identify several examples: e
-
Health,
Pharmaceuticals, Energy, Environment, Transport and Logistics, Security, and
Digital Content.

»

Ελληνική Βιομηχανία: προς την οικονομία της γνώσης,
ΤΕΕ, Αθήνα, 3
-
5 Ιουλίου 2006

For more information


http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/kte_expert_
group_2005.htm


Thank You!