Consumer Electronics Overview, Shawn DuBravac - Hollywood Post ...

stuckwarmersΚινητά – Ασύρματες Τεχνολογίες

14 Δεκ 2013 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 18 μέρες)

223 εμφανίσεις

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


The State of Consumer Tech

Key drivers, disrupters and developments


2008 Hollywood Post Alliance Technology Retreat

(or How Today’s Technology is
Shaping Tomorrow’s Content)

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Consumer Research

30 studies per year

300+ study archive

Sales Data & Forecasts

Sell
-
in data program

5
-
year forecasts

Economic Analysis

Econometric modeling

Quarterly webcasts

CEA Market Research

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Alive and Well


Faster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.

1

Distribution Evolves



New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content

3

Mobility Redefined


Speed, range, coverage, content and product diversity receive a boost


4

360
°

Solutions


Further integration of device, accessories, content, service, network

and community

2

Trends to Watch Heading Into 2008

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


For a number of reasons, it is tough
to predict
exactly

what products
and services will emerge, but it is
safe to assume there will be plenty
of product improvements and
innovations at the margin.

“It Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon

As usual, consumer electronics products will get smaller, faster, clearer,
lighter, more efficient, increased capacity, longer runtime, higher
resolution, more reliable and larger screens, while getting less
expensive.

1

"We tend to
overestimate

the effect of a technology in the short run
and
underestimate

the effect in the long run."

-

Amara’s Law


Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


A Brief History of Time

2001

1968

2007

2006

1991

1995

1990

1930

9.7

CE products

per household

25

CE products

per household

Year when product reached
~25% household penetration

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


A Closer Look at Television

e


estimated, p
-

projected

20% of DTV Sets in 2007
were 1080P.

By 2011, nearly 80% of sets
will be 1080P.

Digital Displays | Millions of units

DTV
penetration

~50%

HDTV
penetration
rate
~39%

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


The Next Generation of DVD

e


estimated, p
-

projected

Next Gen DVD could
approach 30% HH penetration
over the next 4 years.

Next Gen DVD | Thousands of units

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


14%

39%

65%

75%

82%

88%

Household penetration
will exceed 50% by
year’s end and
continue to rise to 70%

Digital Media Players: More than just Audio

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


360
°

Solutions

2

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Device

Service

Content

360
°

Solutions

Accessories

Peripherals

User generated
content

Community

Platforms

Demo | Setup

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Services Redefining the Experience

del.icio.us


Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


And Shaping the Technologies

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Empowerment | Personalization

9%

25%

DVR Penetration

January
2005

January
2008

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Watch the Partnerships


Macrovision &
CinemaNow


Netflix & LG


NBCU & SanDisk


SanDisk & Yahoo


Samsung &
CinemaNow


Xohm Alliance


Long Term Evolution
(LTE)









Android Alliance


Samsung & USA
Today


Blackberry & Sling
Media


Project Canoe

Today’s Rumors


MSFT & Netflix



Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Distribution Evolves

3

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Broadband = 51%, but
many newbies

30% have a
wired or
wireless home
network

Home Theater = 26%


Wide area connections


(WiMax, WiFi/Hotspots, Cell,
Broadband, SlingMedia)



Local area connections

(Ethernet,
WiFi, HDMI)


Personal networks


(RF, Bluetooth, OE integration)



Connecting services


(VOIP, vlogs, blogs, social networks)

Distribution Evolves

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Bridging Gaps in the Home

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Desired Activities Using Home TV

Share

Interact

Personalize

Explore

Connect

Control

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Seeking a Change?

Content Distribution Method

Current

Preferred

Difference

Physically move content

50%

25%

-
25%

Centrally stored content

5%

23%

18%

Place shifting device

5%

13%

8%

Move copies of content

10%

5%

-
5%

Use network

9%

5%

-
4%

Physically move device

21%

4%

-
17%

Remotely stored content

NA

1%

NA

Other

2%

1%

-
1%

None

31%

24%

-
7%

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Present

Future

Desktop PC

Laptop PC

Television

DVR

Media Server

Appliances

Security System

The Networked Home

Products
Connected to
the Internet

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Signs of the Time


In the last 18 months Nielson has bought all
or part of:


Telephia (mobile analytics)


Buzzmetrics (user generated content analytics)


Neurofocus (neuroscience applied to
advertising and messaging)


Audience Analytics (TV analytics and software
to analyze interactive television data and VOD
transactions)

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Mobility Redefined

4

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


More Devices, More Options


44%

32
%

36
%

28
%

7
%

3
% all | 19% DM

17
%

-
1
%

1
%

2008 $ Growth Rate

Ownership Rate

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


1.
Listen to Music

94%

75%

2.
Listen to other audio content

21%

39%

3.
Listen to Podcasts

20%

29%

4.
View Digital Photos

20%

39%

5.
Watch Movies

18%

40%

6.
Play Games

12%

24%

7.
Watch Music Videos

13%

31%

8.
Watch TV Programming


8%

38%

9.
Watch Home Movies


8%

26%

Currently

Doing

Wanting

to Do

And Redefining Mobile Content

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Content Dominating in the End

Share of Time Spent Online


35% just 18
months ago

Source: OPA, CEA

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Multi
-
faceted Life =
Multi
-
faceted Device

The line between the
professional life and
personal life is
increasingly blurring


Source: CEA Sales and Forecast

Smartphones unit grow
exceeds 30% in 2008

Millions of units

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Wireless Subscription Lengths

More than 1 year

Less than 1 year

Email

Texting

Internet

PTT

Video

Music

Gaming

Rings

Navigation

Pictures

Info Alerts

Base: Cell Phone Owners

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


“Hyper Local” Emerges


33% of Online Consumers are
Interested In a Cell Phone with
GPS Capabilities



Hyper local search and advertising
makes mobile Internet more
personal and compelling



Information further empowers
consumers leading to even stronger
demand for mobile devices


47% of consumers are interested in using a GPS device to find
restaurants and gas stations.


43% are interested in being about to see their kids’ or pets’ location
on a computer

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


We Trust our “Friends”

Wisdom of the Crowds is
enlarging the circle of trust

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


#1

Mobile phone

#2

Digital Camera

#3

Laptop/notebook PC

#4

Web enabled mobile

#5

Desktop Computer

#6

Television

#7

Portable MP3

#1

Mobile phone

#2

Television

#3

Laptop/notebook PC

#4

Web enabled mobile

#5

Digital Camera

#6

Portable MP3

#7

Cordless home ph.

#1

Web enabled mobile

#2

Mobile phone

#3

Desktop Computer

#4

Laptop/notebook PC

#5

Digital Camera

#6

Television

#7

In
-
dash car stereo

#1

Television

#2

Mobile phone

#3

Laptop/notebook PC

#4

Digital Camera

#5

Desktop Computer

#6

DVD Player

#7

Portable MP3

USA

CHINA

INDIA

RUSSIA

Intent to buy over next
three years

by online consumers in each country

Mobility in the U.S. and Abroad

Global CE Expenditures Top $600 Billion

1 Billion Mobile Phones Sold to be 2008

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Industry Insider View
Moving into 2008

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Connectivity + Distribution

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Advertising Expectations Over Next 5 Years

Web content advertising, e.g. ad before YouTube
video

Guerrilla and other forms of non traditional
advertising

Search paid listings

Advertising in video games

Product placements

Advertising on cell phones

Advertising in virtual worlds like Second Life

Radio commercials

Television commercials

Display/banner ads

Social networking sites

Event sponsorships

Print ads in newspapers/magazines

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Expectations for Using Social Networking
to Reach Customers in 2008

Video sites

Niche social networking sites

Mainstream social networking sites

Twenty
-
five percent of
CEAP members are
currently using social
networking sites to
sell/market to
consumers, while 17%
are using these
applications to reach
business customers.

Social news sites

Virtual worlds

Photo sites

None of the above

Music sites

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Alive and Well


Faster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.

1

Distribution Evolves



New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content

3

Mobility Redefined



Speed, range, coverage, content and product diversity receive a boost


4

360 Degree Solutions


Further integration of device, accessories, content, service, network

and community

2

Trends to Watch Heading Into 2008

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association


Shawn DuBravac

Chief Economist

Consumer Electronics Association

sdubravac@ce.org

Thank You

See you in Vegas


January 8
th
-
11
th