Money Marine Conference

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 10 μήνες)

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March 9
th
, 2010

Money Marine Conference

Mustapha Boussaid

Director
-

Maritime Investments

7
th

Annual Gulf Ship Finance Forum





Dubai, UAE

1

Waha Capital at a glance…

2

3

Factors influencing

oil price…


What are the factors driving the oil price?

OPEC



Behaviour of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries..

Economy



The overall economic growth and recovery..

Natural
Disasters



Hurricanes, tornados, tsunamis..

Geo
-
political
events



Wars, tensions, political boycotts between countries in the oil industry…



Forecasting oil price helps in determining future demand for
offshore rigs






Forecasting offshore rig activities will predict the demand
for offshore support vessels





Oil prices are estimated to remain around $80/ barrel for
the coming years




The base case scenario is derived from an average of 30
consecutive trading days of the NYMEX price for oil futures



Researchers believe oil prices will remain at around $80/ barrel for the coming years

$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
1Q00
1Q02
1Q04
1Q06
1Q08
1Q10
1Q12
1Q14
1Q16
1Q18
US Light Sweet Crude
-
(Q1 2010 USD/bbl)

Oil Price Scenarios

2000 to 2018

Historical

Base Case

Source: ODS
-
Petrodata Ltd

Iraq War

Asian Growth

Weaker Dollar

Recession

4

Oil price:

a driving force
behind
offshore activities…



Rig activity is strongly tied to the domestic price of oil




Research forecasts a net 67
-
rig increase in global demand for mobile offshore drilling units throughout the year 2011, which

indicates potential growth in the world’s offshore market




The Asia Pacific region accounts for more than 35% of the total 743 outstanding offshore rig requirements




In the Middle East, the growth will be focused more on the jackup segment due to the shallower water environment



Oil prices

Offshore rigs activity

Offshore support vessels

Offshore & Onshore
Active rigs

Regions with the highest
outstanding drilling rig
requirement
Region
# of Req
NW Europe
140
S.E Asia
134
West Africa
100
Australia/N.Z
65
Middle East
62
Indian Ocean
48
Others
194
Total
743
Source: Baker
-
Hughes, Energy Information Administration (DOE)

Source: ODS
-
Petrodata Ltd

5

The Middle East field developments

Key projects overview

Project
Country
Field
Cost
(USD)
Capacity in
barrels a day
(b/d) or cubic feet
a day (cf/d)
Scheduled
Completion
Zakum full field development
UAE
Uppper Zakum
$15bn
250,000 b/d
2015
Satah full field development
UAE
Satah
$600m
25000 b/d
2013
Umm al-Dalkh full field development
UAE
Umm al-Dalkh
$600m
25,000 b/d
2013
Nasr full-field development
UAE
Nasr
$3bn
100,000 b/d
2013
Sath al-Rasboot (sarb) full field development
UAE
Sarb
$1.5bn
110,000 b/d
2015
Umm al-Lulu full field development
UAE
Umm al-Lulu
$1.5bn
100,000 b/d
2013
Al-Shaheen oil development
Qatar
Al-Shaheen
$500m
330,000 b/d
2011
Manifa oil field
Saudi Arabia
Manifa
$15bn
900,000 b/d
2015
Karan gas development
Saudi Arabia
Karan
$5bn
1.8 bn cf/d
2012
Arabiyah-Hasbah development
Saudi Arabia
Arabiyah-Hasbah
$4bn
750 m cf/d
2014
Key offshore projects in the Arabian Gulf produce 4.4 million b/d for a cost of $46.7 billion

Source: MEED projects

6

Overview on the Middle East Offshore Market

118 rigs
-

75.4% Utilization rate



366
OSV’s
-

77% Utilization rate







The formula is : 1 rig = 3.1 OSV


4%

4%

87%

5%

Middle East OSV breakdown
-

2010/2011

AHTS 15,000+bhp
AHTS 10,000-
14,999 bhp
AHTS <10,000 bhp
PSV 3,000 +dwt


The Middle East holds 15% of worldwide mobile offshore drilling units




87% of the
OSVs

in the Middle East come from AHTS < 10,000
bhp




Based on ODS
-
Petrodata estimates, only 2 vessels are expected to be delivered in the M.E by 2012 which is good news
for:


-

Utilization rate to remain high


-

Charter rate to remain constant

0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
USD per day

Global Average 12 Month TC

AHTS (80t BP)
AHTS (120t BP)
AHTS (200t BP)
AHTS (240t BP)
PSV (3,200 dwt)
PSV (4,000 dwt)
Source: ODS
-
Petrodata Ltd

Source:
CISL estimates, Clarkson

7

Fleet Statistics

Geographic distribution of Global AHTS and PSV

Northwest
Europe

34%

West Africa

10%

Asia
-
Pacific

19%

Latin America

22%

Mediterranean
/Middle
East

7%

North America

8%

Global Geographic Distribution
-

AHTS 15,000+
bhp

fleet

Northwest
Europe

9%

West Africa

13%

Asia Pacific

45%

Latin America

17%

Mediterranean
/ Middle
East

7%

North America

9%

Global Geographic Distribution
-

AHTS 10,000
-
14,999
bhp fleet

Northwest
Europe

5%

West Africa

15%

Asia
-
Pacific

41%

Latin America

6%

Mediterranean
/Middle East

31%

North America

2%

Global Geographic Distribution
-

AHTS < 10,000 bhp
fleet

Northwest
Europe

36%

West Africa

13%

Asia
-
Pacific

13%

Latin America

20%

Mediterranean
/Middle East

3%

North America

15%

Global Geographic Distribution
-

PSV 3,000 dwt fleet



Asia
-
Pacific still dominating the mid and light fleet segment ( < 14,999
bhp
)




Middle East dominates the light fleet segment after Asia
-
Pacific ( < 10,000
bhp
)

Source: ODS
-
Petrodata Ltd

8

Fleet

& Newbuilds

0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Global AHTS 15,000+ bhp

Fleet & newbuilds 2005
-
2013

Newbuilds
Fleet
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Global AHTS 10,000
-
14,999 bhp

Fleet & newbuilds 2005
-
2013

Newbuilds
Fleet
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Global AHTS < 10,000 bhp

Fleet & newbuilds 2005
-
2013

Newbuilds
Fleet
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Global PSV 3,000+ dwt

Fleet & newbuilds 2005
-
2013

Newbuilds
Fleet
Decrease in newbuilds for AHTS less than 10,000 bhp will keep utilization rates robust for the coming
years..

Source: ODS
-
Petrodata Ltd

9

Fleet Age

0
20
40
60
80
100
0-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
26+ years
Number of vessels

Global AHTS 15,000+ bhp fleet age

September 2010
-
188 vessels

0
50
100
150
0-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
26-30
> 30
years
Number of vessels

Global AHTS 10,000
-
14,999 bhp fleet age

September 2010
-

239 vessels

0
100
200
300
400
500
0-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
26-30
> 30
years
Number of vessels

Global AHTS < 10,000 bhp fleet age

September 2010
-

1034 vessels

0
100
200
300
400
0-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
26-30
> 30
years
Global PSV 3,000+ dwt fleet age

September 2010
-

503 vessels

Globally, the market is dealing with young fleets: 48% of AHTS vessels are less than 5 years old



Most of AHTS < 10,000 bhp fleet is shaped of very young and very old vessels




Most of AHTS > 15,000+ bhp fleet is less than 10 years of age

Source: ODS
-
Petrodata Ltd

10

Conclusion….




Oil prices will remain at approximately $80/barrel for the coming years




Oil prices and demand for offshore support vessels are positively correlated




Middle East is placed 6 in the global drilling rig requirement, holds 15% of offshore rigs




Global TC rates to decrease in the coming two years as supply continues to increase




On average, 1 rig will require 3
OSVs




The utilization rates in the shallow water regions will be kept robust in the coming years




Globally, 48% of AHTS vessels are less than 5 years old




Key projects in the Arabian Gulf produce 4.4million b/d for a cost of $46.7 billion

Thank you!

Mustapha Boussaid

Director
-

Maritime Investment