Influence of global change on the water quality

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GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Helmut Fischer, Volker Kirchesch, Katrin Quiel, Andreas Schöl

Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde

Influence of global change on the water quality
of the Elbe/Labe

Einfluss des globalen Wandels auf die
Gewässergüte der Elbe

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Contents

1. Introduction


Position in the model network


Factors influencing water quality


The water quality model QSim


2. Results


Longitudinal development of water quality


Model results (validation)


Temporal development of water quality


3. Conclusions and outlook

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Einleitung:


Gliederung

Introduction

-

position of the project in the model network

Water
management

(WBALMO)

Water use















Energy / Mining

(KASIM)

Households /business

(HAUSHALT WASSER)

Industry

(INDUSTRIE WASSER)

Agriculture / Irrigation

Wetlands

(MODAM)

Development of water
technologies

Inflow

Evaporation

Irrigation

Wetlands

Water suppliers

Industry

Mining

Power plants

Nutrient load

(MONERIS)


Point source:
Industry

Regionalization of global
change














Future climate

(STAR)

Development of
agricultural sector

(RAUMIS)

Economics and
demography

(REGE)

Minimal flow for
conservation

Transport on inland
waterways

Point source:
Sewage plant

Diffuse source:
Sealed surfaces

Diffuse source:
Erosion

Diffuse source:
Atmospheric
Deposition

Diffuse source:
Drainage

Diffuse source:
Surface denudation

Diffuse source:
Groundwater

Diffuse source /
Sink: Wetlands

Land use and regional
water balance

Hydrological cycle and
crop yields

(SWIM)

Land use

(LAND USE SCANNER)

Development of

energy sector

(KASIM)

Transport on inland
waterways

X1

X13

X15

X4

X3

X2

Y2

Y1

Y5

Y3

Y4

Y7

Z8

Y8

Z1

Y6

Z6

Z7

Z9

Z5

Z1

Z2

Z3

Z4

Water quality

(QSim)

Nutrient concentr.

Phytoplankton

Oxygen

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Water use















Agriculture / Irrigation


Development of water
technologies

Nutrient load

(MONERIS)


Point source: dir.
ind. discharges

Regionalization of
global change














Future climate

(STAR)


Development of
agricultural sector

(WATSIM
-
RAUMIS)


Economics and
demography

(REGE)


Point discharges:
WWTP

Diffuse Source:
imp. surfaces

Diffuse Source:
Erosion

Diffuse Source:
Atm. Deposition

Diffuse Source:
Drainage

Diffuse Source:
Surface runoff

Diffuse Source:
Groundwater

Sinks: Surface
waters/Wetlands

Land use and regional
water balance

Land use

(LAND USE SCANNER)

Y3

Y8

X1

X15

X2

Y2

Y1

Y5

Y7

Y6

Introduction

-

position of the project in the model network

Households / business

(HAUSHALT WASSER)

Industry

(INDUSTRIE WASSER)

Wetlands

(MODAM)

Hydrological cycle and
crop yields

(SWIM)

Water quality

(QSim)


Nutrient concentr.

Phytoplankton

Oxygen

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Introduction



Climate

(temperature, light regime, precipitation)



model “STAR“, PIK



Discharge

(water depth, retention times)




model “SWIM“, PIK



Nutrients

(inputs, concentrations)




model “MONERIS“, IGB


nutrient budget


䅬条氠杲gwt栠慮搠扩潭慳a


Factors influencing algal biomass and nutrient budget
and






Models providing input data for QSim

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Introduction


the model QSim


O
2

heterotrophic


bacteria,

nitrifying bacteria

phytoplankton

diatoms, green and
bluegreen algae


POC/DOC

zooplankton

rotifers

discharge

mussels


NH
4
, NO
2
,

NO
3
, P, Si


dissolved nutrients


organic


carbon

hydraulics


generating


segments


heat
-


balance

planktonic

modules

benthic

modules

Schöl et al. 1999, 2002

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Longitudinal („Lagrangian“) sampling campaigns:
chlorophyll
a

Results

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

50

100

150

200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Elbe
-
km

Chlorophyll a [µg/l]

Summer

2000

26.6.


5.7. (9 days)

low discharge

Summer

2005

24.7.


1.8. (7 days)

medium discharge

Spring

2006

8.5.


15.5. (6 days)

high discharge

18:00

Elbe


6:00

18:00

tributaries


6:00

High phytoplankton biomass leads to oxygen supersaturation

in the Middle Elbe (up to 200% in summer) and

and heavy loads of organic matter in the tidal area.

n = 3

0

50

100

150

200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Chlorophyll a


measured and modelled data

Results

Sommer

2000

26.6.


5.7.

low discharge

18:00

Elbe


6:00

18:00

tributaries


6:00

0
50
100
150
200
250
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Chlorophyll a [µg/l]

Elbe
-
km

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Longitudinal sampling campaigns:
dissolved phosphorus (ortho
-
phosphate)


Results

ortho
-
PO
4
-
P [mg/l]

Elbe



Tributaries

n = 6

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Summer

2000

26.6.


5.7. (9 days)

low discharge

Summer

2005

24.7.


1.8. (7 days)

medium discharge

Spring

2006

8.5.


15.5. (6 days)

high discharge

Elbe
-
km

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Sommer

2000

26.6.


5.7.

low discharge

Elbe

tributaries

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
ortho
-
PO
4
-
P [mg/l]

Elbe
-
km

Results

Phosphate


measured and modelled data

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Results

Elbe



Tributaries

n = 6

0
1
2
3
4
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
SiO
2
-
Si [mg/l]

Summer

2000

26.6.


5.7. (9 days)

low discharge

Summer

2005

24.7.


1.8. (7 days)

medium discharge

Spring

2006

8.5.


15.5. (6 days)

high discharge

Elbe
-
km

Longitudinal sampling campaigns:
silica


GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Sommer

2000

26.6.


5.7.

low discharge

Elbe

tributaries

0
1
2
3
4
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
SiO
2
-
Si [mg/l]

Elbe
-
km

Results

Silica


measured and modelled data

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Longitudinal sampling campaigns:
nitrogen (nitrate and total nitrogen)


Results

n = 6

NO
3
-
N, total N [mg/l]

Summer

2000

26.6.


5.7. (9 days)

low discharge

Summer

2005

24.7.


1.8. (7 days)

medium discharge

Elbe
-
km

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

1

2

3

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

1

2

3

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Total
-
N

NO
3
-
N

Total
-
N

NO
3
-
N

Elbe

Tributaries

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Spring

2006

8.5.


15.5. (6 days)

high discharge

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Sommer

2000

26.6.


5.7.

low discharge

Elbe

tributaries

0
1
2
3
4
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
NO
3
-
N [mg/l]

Elbe
-
km

Results

Nitrate


measured and modelled data

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz









Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Okt

Nov

Dec

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0

50

100

150

200

250

300





km 474.5

1998


left


mean (left, right)





Chlorophyll

a


[µg/l]

km 318.1





km 172.6


modelled


measured





km 3.9

Chlorophyll


a

Jun

Dec



Chlorophyll

a


[µg/l]

Sep

Nov

Jul

Aug

Feb

Oct

Apr

May

Jan

Elbe
-
km

Mar

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

100

200

300

400

500

0

Results

Chlorophyll
a

(1998)

measured and modelled

(Schöl et al. 2006; measured data by ARGE Elbe)

modelled

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Results

Comparison of
phytoplankton

composition

in the years

1998 and 2003

2003


a warm and


dry summer




摥d敬潰浥湴n潦o

††
捹慮潢慣瑥t楡i

††
(data by ARGE Elbe)

1998, Elbe-km 318
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
7.1
4.2
4.3
18.3
1.4
15.4
29.4
13.5
27.5
10.6
24.6
8.7
22.7
5.8
19.8
2.9
16.9
30.9
14.10
28.10
11.11
9.12
Abundance [Ind/ml]
0
50
100
150
200
250
Chlorophyll a [µg/l]
Cyanophyceae
Diatomeae
Chlorophyceae
Chlorophyll-a
2003, Elbe-km 318
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
8.1
5.2
19.2
5.3
19.3
2.4
16.4
28.4
14.5
26.5
11.6
25.6
9.7
23.7
6.8
20.8
3.9
17.9
1.10
15.10
29.10
12.11
10.12
Abundance [Ind/ml]
0
50
100
150
200
250
Chlorophyll a [µg/l]
GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Results

2003

Measured

phytoplankton
composition

(data ARGE Elbe)

2003, Elbe-km 318
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
8.1
5.2
19.2
5.3
19.3
2.4
16.4
28.4
14.5
26.5
11.6
25.6
9.7
23.7
6.8
20.8
3.9
17.9
1.10
15.10
29.10
12.11
10.12
Abundance [Ind/ml]
0
50
100
150
200
250
Chlorophyll a [µg/l]
Simulation 2003, Elbe-km 318
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
01.01.2003
01.03.2003
01.05.2003
01.07.2003
01.09.2003
01.11.2003
Chlorophyll a [µg/L]
Cyanophyceae
Diatomeae
Chlorophyceae
2003

Modelled

phytoplankton
composition

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Results

In which direction will the system change if



-

temperature increases


-

summer discharges decrease


Model runs with database from years 1998 and 2003


Model results



slightly more zooplankton



only minor change in algal biomass



change in phytoplankton composition


(increase of cyanobacteria)



GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Conclusions and Outlook

Current state

-

strong phytoplankton growth (factor ~4)

-

intense turnover of nutrients (biologically controlled)

-

heavy organic load („secondary pollution“) impairs the


oxygen budget of the Elbe estuary

-

high nutrient loads are problematic for coastal areas


Future state

-

intensification of biological processes

-

better growth conditions (light, temperature)

-

stronger nutrient limitation is possible

-

better conditions for cyanobacteria

-

open system for invading species (e.g. mussels)


Phytoplankton

development

+

+

-

-

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Conclusions and Outlook

Further work within GLOWA
-
Elbe II


-

Modelling nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton growth in the


Czech Elbe section (below Vltava/Moldau).

-

Calculation of 5 climate scenarios x 4 socio
-
economic scenarios


Future state

-

intensification of biological processes

-

better growth conditions (light, temperature)

-

stronger nutrient limitation is possible

-

better conditions for cyanobacteria

-

open system for invading species (e.g. mussels)


Phytoplankton

development

+

+

-

-

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Thank You

for your attention!

GLOWA
-
Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam


H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz

Longitudinal sampling campaigns:
(ortho
-
phosphate) and total phosphorus


Results



n = 6

0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Elbe
-
km

ortho
-
PO
4
-
P, total P [mg/l]

Summer

2000

26.6.


5.7. (9 days)

low discharge

Summer

2005

24.7.


1.8. (7 days)

medium discharge

Spring

2006

8.5.


15.5. (6 days)

high discharge

Total
-
P

ortho
-
PO
4
-
P

Elbe

Tributaries

Total
-
P

ortho
-
PO
4
-
P