Ernst Janovsky - Agrimark Trends

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28 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 10 μέρες)

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Absa AgriBusiness

Presenter name

Subject

Disclaimer:
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank
takes no responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.

ABSA AgriBusiness


Agric
-
Economic Outlook


1 October 2009


Absa AgriBusiness

Discussion agenda

1.
Macro economic trends


World social spend supports agriculture



2.
Agricultural insights
-

Golden days for agriculture is back



3.
Africa the new frontier


Food security



4.
Commodity outlook for Selected Agricultural commodities




Absa AgriBusiness

Economic outlook


Supply and demand

Absa AgriBusiness

Summery of world economic impact on South African Agriculture


This lead to a shift in demand with a
resulting increase in commodity prices


The demand for bio
-
fuels also impacted
positively on commodity prices


Commodity prices was further supported by
lower world stocks



Food demand remain sticky


Shift in world soft commodity demand


After capitalism replaced communism as economic system in the late 90’s world
economic growth increased to more than 4.9% per annum for the four years
preceding 2008


In 2008
-

2009 world experienced a financial meltdown


World wide approximately one billion jobs will be lost during 2009


In SA approximately 600 000 jobs is expected to be lost in 2009


If you loos your job you loos your house and your car but you do not loos the need to eat


In a world economic crisis the poor of the poor (job less) is supported by social spend
(Dole, Workmen's compensation, Food stamps, Social spend) supporting demaand.

The net result is higher commodity prices in spite

of a world economic meltdown

Absa AgriBusiness

Exchange rate impact on South African Agriculture

Absa AgriBusiness

Economic outlook


Balance of Payment


Exchange rate indicators


The rand will continue to strengthen against the US Dollar and Chinese
currencies while the dollar will tend to weaken against the Euro


This is mainly due to the link between the US dollar and the Chinese Yuan as
well as the current account deficit of the US (
-

3% of GDP)


The Rand is expected to continue to weaken against the bulk of the other
currencies

Absa AgriBusiness

Economic outlook


Inflation

Pointers


Due to higher inflation in 2007 and 2008 the Reserve Bank increased interests rates in a
bid to control inflation.


All indication are that inflation is under control and it is expected that inflation will
continue to decline creating some leeway for the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates
even further.

Absa AgriBusiness

Discussion agenda

1.
Macro economic trends


World social spend supports agriculture



2.
Agricultural insights
-

Golden days for agriculture is back



3.
Africa the new frontier


Food security



4.
Commodity outlook for Selected Agricultural commodities




Absa AgriBusiness

Effective Market

Absa AgriBusiness

Primary agricultural confidence index

Absa AgriBusiness

Discussion agenda

1.
Macro economic trends


World social spend supports agriculture



2.
Agricultural insights
-

Golden days for agriculture is back



3.
Africa the new frontier


Food security



4.
Commodity outlook for Selected Agricultural commodities




Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Polar area

Mountain area

Tundra / Taiga

Moderate

Mediterranean

Dry grasslands

Desert

Subtropical

Tropical






Climatic topography

World Climatic topography

Absa AgriBusiness

Market
environment



World Market growth potential (2)

Pointers


Production growth
potential for 2050 must be
viewed against expected
growth in demand of
approximately 40


60 %
over the same period


This is mainly the result of
an expected population
growth rate of between
0,9% to 1,1% and
improvements in the
economic welfare of
consumers due to
economic growth.


Only a portion of
economic growth will
impact on the growth in
demand for food as food is
classified as one of the
basic needs.

Absa AgriBusiness

Market environment


World market growth potential (3)

Pointers


In the short term stiff
competition in terms of
production expansion will
come from South America.


The most significant
untapped opportunity is
Africa


As production expansion
exceed demand
expectations, prices of
soft commodities will
remain fairly depressed
forcing farmers to improve
efficiencies. This is only
possible if producers
incorporate new
technology to improve
efficiencies or use
efficiencies of scale.

Absa AgriBusiness

Discussion agenda

1.
Macro economic trends


World social spend supports agriculture



2.
Agricultural insights
-

Golden days for agriculture is back



3.
Africa the new frontier


Food security



4.
Commodity outlook for Selected Agricultural commodities




Absa AgriBusiness

Summery


every thing is market driven

Absa AgriBusiness

World maize trends

Absa AgriBusiness

South African maize trends

Absa AgriBusiness

Expected SA yellow maize price trends

Absa AgriBusiness

Expected SA white maize price trends

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Poultry production trends

Absa AgriBusiness

Poultry Price trends

Absa AgriBusiness

SA Beef prices

Absa AgriBusiness

Mutton Price trends

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Absa AgriBusiness

Thank you for the opportunity to share some ideas



Contact details


E Janovsky

Tel (011) 350 6102

Email

ernst.janovsky@absa.co.za


Disclaimer:
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no
responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.