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20 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 19 μέρες)

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Kathleen M. Baker


Western Michigan University

Midwest Weather Working Group

October 7, 2009



RAMP #2008
-
02925

South

Dakota

State

University


Comparison of techniques for forecasting


ANN at point locations
vs

spatial grids


Variability across regions / diseases


Cyberinfrastructure

options


Test cases:


Potato late blight
----

MI


Fusarium head blight of barley
---

MN/SD/ND


Leaf spot of peanut
---

GA, FL


Focus today: MI
-
PLB, August 2008


KAZO GFSX MOS GUIDANCE
12/05/2008
0000 UTC


FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192


WED 05| THU 06| FRI 07| SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12


X/N 26| 14 29| 25 35| 22 32| 28 41| 28 36| 22 36| 25 36


TMP 20| 17 26| 28 30| 24 30| 33 35| 30 30| 24 31| 28 32


DPT 16| 13 18| 23 26| 19 24| 29 31| 26 24| 20 24| 23 24


CLD OV| CL PC| OV PC| OV
OV
| OV
OV
| OV PC| OV
OV
| CL PC


WND 11| 7 9| 11 11| 8 6| 13 11| 11 11| 10 13| 15 9


P12 36| 1 4| 63 21| 16 16| 61 55| 42 30| 25 32| 29 24


P24 | 8| 76| 29| 64| 51| 41| 46


Q12 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 4 3| 2 0| 0 |


Q24 | 0| 1| 0| 3| 2| |


Normals

May

June

July

August

Sept.

Cooler than
mean

MonthHiLo

MonthHiLo

MonthHiLo

LatLong

NoSpatial

Warmer than
mean

MonthHiLo

NoSpatial

MonthHiLo

LatLong

LatLong

ANN

Schematic

The Total 5
Y
ear
Accuracy


Mean of forecasts


81%


Mean of stations


79%


Median


79%


SD


3%


How do we create these models in the most
efficient way?


Randomization between years


Addition of climatic
normals



Necessary data archive


How does accuracy compare to more
advanced options?



“a
research environment
that supports
integration of
geographically distributed
computing and information processing
services to enable
data
-
intensive collaborative
science
enterprises”



TeraGrid



a
petaflop

of computing capability


more than 30
petabytes

of online & archival data
storage


rapid access and retrieval over high
-
performance
networks


Linked Environments for Atmospheric
Discovery (LEAD) Portal


$11 mil





Democratization

of forecasting



WRF outputs


Hourly grids



Varying resolution


ACCURACY AUG 2008

AVG

MED

MIN

MAX

SD

71%

76%

16%

95%

17%

ACCURACY AUG 2008

AVG

MED

MIN

MAX

SD

72%

72%

55%

87%

6%


Variability in accuracy


Optimization of spatial resolution


Stablization

of system


Limited dataset


Variable selection


2m
vs

canopy conditions




Gridded WRF forecasts have many
advantages over ANN point based model


Increased accuracy at critical locations


Increased accuracy at critical times


Increased spatial resolution


Potential to vary spatial resolution


Potential to vary height of measurements


Expanded variable set


Run time flexibility



Compare accuracy and variability for
different crops in different regions



Compare ANN interpolation from points to
spatially gridded forecasts


Is the investment worth it?



The high quality foundation of data
provided by
cyberinfrastructure

projects
such as LEAD has the potential to truly
transform agricultural decision support


Cloud computing possibilities…

Proposed Organization of Crop Disease Risk Forecasting System

Model
workflow

Early
Warning

Reports

Modeling

services

Analysis

Forecasts

Access to local,
regional and global
meteorological
forecasts

Access to local
phys
-
geographic
data, incl. data
from other CI
projects

Forcings


monitoring

of crop

data

Crop
Observatories

Validation

Assemble
model

Validatio
n

data

Data conversion

services

(e.g. projection)

Event detection

and alert services

workflows

Neural Network,
Excel, GIS, …

Funding:

USDA CSREES FQPA RAMP 2008
-
02925

Co
-
PI’s:

Joel Paz,
University of Georgia, Ag & Biological Engineering

Jeffrey Stein,
South Dakota State University, Plant Biology

William Kirk,
Michigan State University, Plant Pathology

Phillip Wharton,
University of Idaho, Plant Pathology

Dennis
Todey
,
South Dakota State
Univ
, Ag &
Biosystems

Engineering

Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD):

Kelvin
Droegemeier
,
University of Oklahoma
;

Beth
Plale
, Suresh
Marru
, Felix
Terkhorn
,
Indiana University

Research Assistants:

Magdalena
Wisniewska
; Jason Smith; Cassandra Hoch; Doug Rivet;

Susan
Benston
, Steve Schultz