Dynamic Land Use Change Modeling

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© K.Fedra 20004


1

Dynamic Land Use
Change Modeling


A simple spatial modeling
application

© K.Fedra 20004


2

Land Use Change modeling

Land cover:

Natural land surface, vegetation

Land use:

Economic interpretation and
classification of land cover


© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Describes the change of land use or land
cover over time.

Provides inputs and boundary conditions
for other estimates such as:


Population development


Regional economy, GRP


Resource requirements (water, energy)


Waste and environmental pollution

© K.Fedra 20004


4

Land Use Change modeling

How to model land use change ?

Divide the area under study into
small cells or units (a grid) of
homogeneous land use each;

Describe the evolution of each
cell as a sequence of discrete
states (land use) over time.

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Turing machine
(general purpose computer)

A.M.Turing (1936)

John von Neumann (1950):

Self
-
reproducing machines

Cellular automata:

J.H. Conway: LIFE (game)

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Cellular automata:J.H. Conway: LIFE (game)

Complex behavior with only two very
simple rules:

Survival:

with 2 or 3 neighbors

Death:

less than2, more than 3

Birth:


empty field with 3 neighbors/

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Continuously moving GLIDER

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling


Simple dynamic model


Spatially distributed


Individual cells (objects, parcels
of land) show SIMPLE behavior


Complexity through interaction
in space and time

© K.Fedra 20004


10

Land Use Change modeling

Basic modeling principle:


State transition
(traffic light)


Markov chain: a series of
random events or states from a
given set, each determined only
by its predecessor
(A.Markov, 1856
-
1922).

© K.Fedra 20004


11

Land Use Change modeling

Complexity through interaction in space
and time, probabilistic state transitions:

Transitions depend on neighborhood and
history: if each cell shares information
on all other cells intended transitions, it
may change its own naïve strategy.

EXAMPLE: urban development, building
apartment blocks
(planning and zoning !)

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

What makes land use change ?

1.
Demographic development

2.
Economic, technological
development
(incl. pollution, exhaustion)

3.
Political development
(regional
planning, borders, war)

4.
Climate change
(suitability)

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Typical time scale:

Decades

Regulatory framework:

Land use plan, zoning

Building laws

Ownership, property and inheritance
laws (agriculture)

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Model components:

1.
Land use classes, initial
conditions (map)

2.
Transition matrix (probabilities)

3.
RULES modifying the
probabilities expressing global
or regional constraints

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

CORINE land use classes:

1.1.Urban fabric

1.2 Industrial, commercial



and transport units

1.3 Mine, dump and construction sites

1.4 Artificial non
-
agricultural



vegetated areas


© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

CORINE land use classes:


1.1.Urban fabric

1.1.1. Continuous urban fabric

1.1.2. Discontinuous urban fabric


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Land Use Change modeling

CORINE land use classes:

2.1 Arable land

2.2 Permanent crops

2.3 Pastures

2.4 Heterogeneous agricultural areas

3.1 Forest

3.2 Shrubs and/or herbaceous



vegetation associations

3.3 Open spaces with little or no vegetation


© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

CORINE land use classes:


4.1 Inland wetlands

4.2 Coastal wetlands

5.1 Inland waters

5.2 Marine waters


© K.Fedra 20004


19

Land Use Change modeling

Starting point:

a historical

land use map:

Batroun/Tripoli,

Northern Lebanon

© K.Fedra 20004


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© K.Fedra 20004


21

Land Use Change modeling

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Shrubs, herbaceous veg. 17.0

Permanent crops 14.7

Forest, mixed 7.9

Heterogeneous agriculture: 2.9

Urban fabric 2.8

Open space, little veg. 2.7

Mines. dumps, construction 0.8

Industry, commerce, transport 0.4

Coastal wetlands 0.1

Unclassified 50.7

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

The mechanisms:

1.
State transition matrix (simple
Markov Model)

2.
Rules (shared information
described by first order
production rules)

© K.Fedra 20004


Land Use Change modeling

state transition matrix:


S1 S2 S3 S4


S1
0.74

0.01 0.20 0.05
∑=1.0


S2
0.01
0.98

0.00 0.01


S3
0.00 0.02
0.93

0.05


S4
0.10 0.01 0.02
0.87

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling



1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.2


1.1

0.86

0.05 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00

1.2

0.01
0.95

0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00

1.3

0.05 0.10
0.85

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.4

0.01 0.00 0.00
0.99

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2.1

0.10 0.05 0.00 0.10
0.40

0.10 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

2.2

0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.56

0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00

2.3

0.10 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.10
0.55

0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

2.4

0.10 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.11
0.50

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

3.1

0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.82

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

3.2

0.05 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03
0.80

0.00 0.00 0.00

3.3

0.06 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01
0.80

0.00 0.00

4.1

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03
0.94

0.00

4.2

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
0.98

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

State transition matrix:

1.
Educated guesses
(hypotheses)

2.
Estimated from a series of land
use maps (e.g., from satellite
imagery) to estimate transition
frequencies.

© K.Fedra 20004


27

Land Use Change modeling

Transition probabilities:

Source:

shrub, meadows

Targets:



Pastures, grazing


Agriculture (irrigated, rain fed)


Horticulture, orchards, wine, ….


Urban fabric (housing)


Industrial/commercial areas

© K.Fedra 20004


Land Use Change modeling

A priori

transition probabilities are

CONTINGENT on


1.
Global states (e.g., %S1)

2.
Local States:


Temporal (history, memory)


Spatial (neighborhood)

© K.Fedra 20004


Land Use Change modeling

Global/local adjustments of the
transition probabilities

in relative terms

(p= 0.50; 10% increase p = 0.55

in absolute terms

(p = 0.50 increase by 10% p = 0.60)

absolute

(p = 0.50; set to 10% p = 0.10)

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Operators:

1.
FRACTION (in space:
describes the neighborhood)

2.
FREQUENCY (in time:
describes the history)

3.
LAST (in time: checks for
specific events)

© K.Fedra 20004


31

Land Use Change modeling

Example Concepts:

1.
Cities are more likely to
expand than to start in the
middle of nowhere.

2.
A dense city is likely to retain
some last green areas like
parks.

© K.Fedra 20004


32

Land Use Change modeling

Cities are more likely to expand than to start in
the middle of nowhere:

IF FRACTION(city,1) < 10%

THEN p(*,city) DECREASES 90%

If in the immediate surrounding of an area
(8 neighbors) there is not at least 1 cell
that is already part of a city, the
probability of any source class to
become city is reduced to 1/10.

© K.Fedra 20004


33

Land Use Change modeling

A dense city is likely to retain some
last green areas like parks.

IF FRACTION(city,2) > 95

THEN p(*,city) ABSOLUTE 0

If there is not at least one free green
area in radius of 2 units (a 5by5
neighborhood) around a given plot,
no transition to city is possible.

© K.Fedra 20004


34

Land Use Change modeling

Other attributes that can affect
potential land use:


Elevation, slope


Terrain, relief


Soil, geology


Climate (water)


Infrastructure (transport, energy)

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Other driving forces:


Population development,
pressures


Migration (jobs, income,
unemployment, conflicts)


GRP, property prices

© K.Fedra 20004


36

Land Use Change modeling

Related analysis:


Employment opportunities


GRP, revenues, taxes, income


Resource consumption (water, energy)


Environmental impacts (waste streams)

Based on land use specific processes or
activity specific coefficients


© K.Fedra 20004


37

Land Use Change modeling

Related analysis or models:


Traffic systems


Forest fire


Desertification


Avalanches, mud slides


Development of a infrastructures:


Road network, pipelines, district heating


Locational analysis
(site suitability: schools, hospitals,
airports, supermarkets …..)


© K.Fedra 20004


38

Land Use Change modeling

Assignment:

Build a LUC scenario:


Use the Lebanon example

OR


Use your own real or
hypothetical initial conditions

© K.Fedra 20004


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Land Use Change modeling

Assignment:

Develop a transition matrix

Develop a set of RULES, explain
the underlying ideas and
principles !

Suggest improvements to the
model.

© K.Fedra 20004


40

Land Use Change modeling

Assignment: LUC

Details and material on:

http://80.120.147.30/LUC/

http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/luc.html