The New Biological Weapons - Richard & Rhoda Goldman School ...

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14 Δεκ 2012 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 8 μήνες)

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Lecture 9:


The New Biological Weapons:



Contagious & Genetically



Engineered Agents



Stephen M. Maurer

Goldman School of Public Policy Rm. 302

Boalt Law School Rm. 356

smaurer@berkeley.edu

WMD Terrorism

PP 190
-
15 / 290
-
15

History Suggests that Bioweapons are Hard


Could Terrorists Find a Loophole?



Contagious weapons



Relaxed constraints?



Genetic Engineering





Traditional (Soviet) Methods




Other Breakthrough Science



Biomodulators/Bioregulators



Synthetic Biology



Contagious + Genetic Engineering

Introduction

Contagious weapons

Terrorist vs. Military


Delivery, predictability, immediacy, targeted impact,



available countermeasures, lethality.


The rebound argument.


Counter
-
example: Soviet smallpox


Candidates:


Smallpox, plague, hemorrhagic fever.

Contagious Diseases

Would it work?



Public health systems



Prediction



Simple models y = exp(R
0



1)/T
G
t



Complex models




Sensitivity Analysis and Fitting




Superspreaders



Social Dynamics and Social Responses



Education Campaigns



Quarantine



Vaccination




Ring, Mass, Prophylactic


Contagious Diseases

Investing in an Uncertain Weapon


Practical Details


Acquiring Closely
-
Guarded Pathogens


Culturing Viruses


Are Humans Good Delivery Systems?

Genetically
-
Modified
Weapons




K. Alibek & S. Handelman

Biohazard: The Chilling
True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons
Program in the World


Told From the Inside by the
Man Who Ran It

(Delta: 1999)

The Soviet Program



GE Toxin Production


Drug Resistant Plague, Anthrax


Chimeras:



Smallpox + VEE



Smallpox + Ebola

Making toxins

Multidrug resistance

Resurrecting pathogens

Safer weapons

Evading diagnostics

Vaccine resistance

Increased transmissibility

Altering host range

Increased morbidity and mortality

Easier propagation and distribution

Gene modification weapons

Targeted weapons

Common Suggestions

Making toxins

Multidrug resistance

Resurrecting Pathogens

Safer weapons

Evading diagnostics

Vaccine resistance

Increased transmissibility

Altering host range

Increased morbidity and mortality

Easier propagation and distribution

Gene modification weapons

Targeted weapons

Easy(?) Projects

Easy(?) Projects

Advantages


Relatively Small Genetic Changes


Limited Animal Testing


But:


Non
-
Trivial Skills


Non
-
Standard Organisms


Pleiotropy (Again)



Multiple drug resistance



Hardiness,
etc.



Limited Payoff


May be Irrelevant for Very Large Attacks

Making toxins

Multidrug resistance

Resurrecting Pathogens

Safer weapons

Evading diagnostics

Vaccine resistance

Increased transmissibility

Altering host range

Increased morbidity and mortality

Easier propagation and distribution

Gene modification weapons

Targeted weapons

Harder Projects

Increased Criteria of Merit

Example: Transmissibility


Enhanced ability to secrete proteinases,
phospholipases to break down skin. Enzymes to
break down immunoglobin and other antibodies.

R. Zilinskas, “Technical Barriers to Successful Biological Attacks with Synthetic
Organisms,” (2006), available at
http://gspp.berkeley.edu/iths/

UC%20White%20Paper.pd
.

Increased Criteria of Merit

Example: Virulence


Genes coding for proteins that interfere with
immune response.


Would It Work?


R. Zilinskas, “Technical Barriers to Successful Biological Attacks with Synthetic
Organisms,” (2006), available at
http://gspp.berkeley.edu/iths/

UC%20White%20Paper.pd
.

Other Types of
Breakthrough Science

Example:
Bioregulators/modulators
:


Erythropoieteins, interferons,
interleukins, colony stimulating factors,
stem cell growth factors, monoclonal
antibodies, tumor necrosis factor
inhibitors, vaccines.


Pharmaceutical industry.


R&D


Bulk production.

Experiments of Concern


“Gotcha” Discoveries


Mousepox (2001)


Engineered Sterility Vector Defeats Vaccines

Synthetic Biology


Cheaper Genetic Engineering


Easier Genetic Engineering


More Ambitious Experiments (Artemisinin)


Understanding Pleiotropy

Genetic Engineering

+

Contagious weapons

Can Synthetic Biology Resurrect Smallpox?

Improved Contagiousness?


Fine
-
Tuning Organisms


Pleiotropy (Again)


Synthetic biology and artemisinin


Overcoming Pleiotropy?

Lecture 8:


Discussion

Questions?

Today’s Puzzle:



Should Society Have Regulated






Freeze
-
Drying?

Syllabus:


http://gspp.berkeley.edu/iths/WMD%20Terrorism/Syllabus.pdf



S. Maurer (ed.)
WMD Terrorism

MIT Press 2009. Available

on Amazon