Driven by Broadband Data Traffic

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10/28/09


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1


Future Wireless Network Architecture

Driven by Broadband Data Traffic




MIT CIPS Workshop

October 28, 2009



Berge Ayvazian, Senior Advisor, Yankee Group

Principal Consultant, Wireless 20/20



10/28/09


© Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC.


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Introduction to Wireless 20/20


Consulting group focused on the emerging broadband wireless
market


3G, LTE, Wi
-
Fi, WiMAX


Expertise in
Broadband

technology, market and modeling


Provide support to the “Broadband Wireless Ecosystem”


Component Vendors, Equipment Vendors, Service Providers, Regulators


Developed over 30 Wireless Business Cases around the world


North America, South America, China, Europe, Africa, Middle East


Developed comprehensive tools to model broadband wireless
networks


What is the impact on ROI?



10/28/09


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Mobile Industry Trends

Evolution to Data
-
centric Mobile Networks

Data is growing faster than voice on today’s 2G and 3G networks

Need for scalable backhaul as all
-
IP 4G networks develop

Emergence of Smartphone Applications

Driven by mobile email, SMS/MMS, ringtones and content

Hosted apps specific for mobile smartphone devices

Growth of Mobile Internet Traffic

Transition from mobile email/SMS to internet
-
based multimedia
content and information exchange: YouTube and social networking

Mobile access to cloud computing services, eg. Salesforce.com



10/28/09


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Mobile Broadband Smartphone Handsets, Notebooks and
Netbooks and DataCards Drive Data Traffic Growth








Emergence of Smartphone Applications and Widgets

Mobile Device and Application Trends

4

Laptops/

DataCards

Netbooks

3G Smartphones

MIDs

Consumer

Electronics



10/28/09


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Global Mobile Data Forecast

Global mobile traffic will increase 66X between 2008
-
13

Broadband will drive 80% of mobile traffic, and exceed two exabytes
per month

Global mobile data traffic reached one exabyte/month in half the time it
took fixed data traffic to do so

High
-
end 3G smartphone generates more data traffic than 30
basic
-
feature 2G cell phones

Laptop Aircard or Netbook generates more data traffic than
450 basic
-
feature cell phones

Almost 64% of world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013

including streaming, downloading and interactive video
communications

Mobile Data/Video Challenge
-

Scalable Core and Backhaul



10/28/09


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Mobile Data Traffic Tsunami



















Source:

Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast


Informa Telecoms and Media, 2009

6



10/28/09


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Massive Data Traffic Growth Forecast
Tier 1 US Mobile Service Providers

7

Year

Source:

Yankee Group, 2009

Mobile Broadband Data Traffic Growth Drives Backhaul Requirements

Data ARPU

Data ARPU



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US Mobile Operator Network Evolution


HSPA+ in 2010

No Announced Date for LTE

HSPA (R6) in 2010

Maximum 7.2 Mbps

Average 700 Kbps


1 Mbps


GSM Voice

HSDPA
-

Data


T
-
Mobile USA

Clearwire Network Build out in
selected markets 2009
-
2010

Mobile WiMAX

802.16e

CDMA Voice

EV
-
DO Rev A
-

Data

Sprint

LTE Trials by year
-
end 2009

LTE Deployment begins 2010
for 30 commercial markets

nationwide build
-
out late 2013
or early 2014.

LTE

.

CDMA Voice

EV
-
DO Rev A
-

Data

Verizon Wireless

LTE trials in 2010

Deployment begins in 2011

HSPA (R6) in 2009

Maximum 7.2 Mbps

Ave. 700
-
1,700 Kbps

GSM Voice

HSDPA
-

Data

AT&T


4G Deployment Date


Next 3G Data Network


Current 3G Network


Mobile Network Operator

8



10/28/09


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Mobile Internet and 4G Network Transformation
Will Impacts the Entire Mobile Ecosystem

Devices

Voice
-
centric

Media Internet
Centric

Access/Backhaul

Narrowband

Broadband

Edge/Core

Connectivity
Centric

Internet
Centric

Services/Apps

Vertical
Integration

Horizontal
and Vertical
Integration



10/28/09


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Today’s Mobile Data Network Architecture

Not Built for Mobile Data Applications


AT&T’s Edge and 3G network performance has suffered trying to support
millions of iPhones


Netbooks and datacards are the next challenge


RAN being upgraded to HSPA+ and ultimately LTE


Cost for Existing Backhaul running into $100Ms


Current backhaul is being upgraded to Fiber/Ethernet


AT&T’s network is a harbinger for other mobile providers


Verizon Wireless


Sprint/Clearwire


T
-
Mobile


Vodafone


Orange


Telefonica/O2


None of them are Ready for 4G


10



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4G Operator Deployment Strategies

Driven
by Legacy Position and Competitive Market

4G Plans of Major MNOs


MNOs making huge investment
on RAN and Backhaul for Mobile
Broadband


AT&T and Vodafone 3G
networks being upgraded to
HSPA in 2009, postponing LTE
into 2012


Verizon Wireless is LTE first
mover with trials in 2009 and
commercial deployment in 2010


Sprint using Clearwire mobile
WiMAX network for 4G starting
in 2009


Vodafone deploying HSPA in
2009 and plans LTE in 2012


KDDI announced LTE while

UQ Communications 4G mobile
WiMAX network in late 2009


Korea Telecom using mobile
WiMAX network for 4G while
testing LTE


NTT DoCoMo is currently testing
LTE and deploying EPC and IMS
to offer commercial Super 3G
services beginning in 2010


Other 4G first movers include
Telstra Australia, TeliaSonera
and Telenor

11

NTT
docomo

Super 3G/LTE

GSM/HSDPA

LTE



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Next Generation Radio Technologies are Coming

Source: Yankee Group


September 2009

12



10/28/09


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Spectrum

Substantial spectrum to deliver true mobile broadband experience

Core Network

Open, Flat all
-
IP packet core network, low cost, simple, low latency,
with intelligence and analytics montize rich media applications
.

Backhaul

High Capacity Ethernet links to connect the radio network to the
packet core, the Internet and other networks.

Radio Network

Open, standards based base stations, radio access network to deliver
multi
-
megabit speeds to the end user.

4G Service Providers Need

Devices

Wide selection of devices, including low cost, and embedded to
reduce barriers to entry and make customer acquisition affordable.

13



10/28/09


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4G is More than a
Radio Access Network


IMS

Interne
t

Internet

Interne
t

Operator

IP Service
Domain

GERAN

E
-
UTRAN

eNodeB

UTRAN

BTS

NodeB

SGSN/

MME

SGW

LTE

AAA/
HSS

Overlaid

Networks

ePDG

WiFi /
Femto /
WiMAX

3G

PGW/

GGSN

14

Evolved Packet Core (EPC) drives all
-
IP for capital and operational
efficiencies and to accelerate service innovation



10/28/09


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Radio Network Upgrades Alone
Cannot Address Traffic Demands

Source: Yankee Group


September 2009

15



10/28/09


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4G is Much More than a
Radio Access Network

16

Massive investments needed to overcome backhaul choking
-
point

Efficiencies of Ethernet in the backhaul

Source: Yankee Group


September 2009



10/28/09


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Mobile Backhaul Trends


Path to 4G heralds hyper
-
convergence of communications, Internet,
media, mobility and machine


New players are poised to capitalize on 4G and the Anywhere Network


Service providers are grappling with transformation strategies for 4G


Current market strategies are driven by competition and are not
addressing market demand


Ecosystems evolving to empower the end users and disrupt status quo


Within next five years, mobile network operators have to:

Transition from TDM to packet based backhaul

Transition to fiber backhaul and microwave

Simplify backhaul connectivity with Ethernet

Unify the voice and data networks mobile networks, particularly for

wireline backhaul


17



10/28/09


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3G and 4G Mobile Network

Backhaul Challenge


Over $24 billion was spent on mobile backhaul services globally in 2008


US mobile network operators spent $6.2 billion on backhaul in 2008 for
228,000 cell sites supporting an average of 10 Mbps or less of capacity


In 2012, there will be more than 300,000 cell sites in the U.S., each
supporting on average 100 Mbps.


If MNOs keep throwing T1s at the problem, this would result in a
backhaul bill of $82 billion. The monthly average cost per site would be
about $23,000 compared to today’s average of $2,100.


MNOs need to plan RAN and backhaul together


preplanned fiber hub
sites enable broad microwave coverage and lowers lifecycle costs


4G requires more fiber and microwave in the backhaul network to
support high bandwidth requirements


Metro Ethernet and fiber hubbing enables node aggregation

18



10/28/09


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100 Mbps Ethernet Backhaul Needed to
Support HSPA+ and WiMAX, More for LTE

10 Mbps
Backhaul in 2008

100 Mbps Backhaul
in two years

19



10/28/09


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WiROI Model for LTE Backhaul



10/28/09


© Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC.


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Future Wireless Network Architecture

Conclusion


Mobile Internet presents tremendous opportunities for
those who transform to address its demands

Service providers must embrace the Mobile Internet and
4G or perish

A holistic approach towards technology evolution is
critical in the run up to 4G

Service providers must drive transformation into their
company culture and with employee incentives to change

Focus on Backhaul and Evolved Packet Core in the
Transition to 4G to Optimize the Mobile Internet User
Experience

21



10/28/09


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04/01/09

© Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC.


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22

Questions?



Haig Sarkissian

408 884
-
1561

haig
@wireless2020.net

Berge Ayvazian

617 504
-
6141

berge
@wireless2020.net

www.wireless2020.net

Randall Schwartz

415 307
-
4259

randall
@wireless2020.net


Roberta Wiggins

617 504
-
6141

roberta
@wireless2020.net