Cellular Technologies and Services of the Future

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Cellular Technologies and Services of the Future



Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Penn Club, New York






Pradeep Samudra, Independent Consultant






© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Council Member Biography




Pradeep Samudra, now an independent consultant was most recently (10/06) a Vice

President at Samsung Telecommunications. He has over 25 years of experience in

the telecommunications industry. He is a holder of 4 recent patents and 6 pending

applications in the area of IP/MPLS/ATM routing and is knowledgeable about

the


business and technologies of CDMA/GSM/OFDMA/xDSL/VoIP/IPTV and FTTx

technologies. He is also experienced in developing and marketing broadband and

wireless network systems and products. Mr. Samudra has spoken at internationally

recognized conferences on topics ranging from market and technology forecasts,

planning and deployment and is a member of the Board of Directors for the

prestigious industry standards alliance ATIS. Recently he managed nationwide VoIP

deployment and an IPTV trial in the US. He is knowledgeable in the telecom vertical

segment, key players, their strategies, and prospects for future agents of and in

next
-
gen wireless technologies such as 3G/3G LTE/Super 3G and 4G, broadband

access and core networks.

© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Table of Contents



Cellular Technologies and Services of the future



Migration from 3G to B3G/4G
-

what are the drivers? What are costs?



Competition: Service providers, vendors and technologies



What are the issues?



Threats and Opportunities



Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
4

of 25


Generation
Commercialized

GSM/UMTS
(3GPP)

CDMA
(3GPP2)

IEEE

Capacity (bps)

2G

1998

GSM

1X RTT

30
-
90 K

2.5G

2002

GPRS/EDGE

1X EVDOr0

150K

3G

2006

WCDMA

1X EVDOrA

400
-
700K

3.5G

2009

HSPA+/OFDMA
(LTE)

nX EVDOrC

UMB (TEF)

2007: 802.16e
(WiMAX)

1
-
15M

4G

2012?
1

OFDMA/MIMO

2010: 802.16m

100M

Cellular Technologies

3G = 1
st

Gen of Mobile Broadband


More “monetizable” bandwidth is a key driver.

LTE


Long Term Evolution (3GPP)

MIMO


Multiple Input/Multiple Output

OFDMA


Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access

TEF


Technology Evolution Framework (3GPP2/CDG)

UMB


Ultra Mobile Broadband

1. Technology

1

The ITU expects “4G” as rolling out starting 2015.

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
5

of 25


Next Gen Definition


B3G and 4G (IMT
-
A)


High
data rates

over efficient spectrum utilization (up to

10 b/s/Hz) using advanced antenna techniques


100 Mbps @250 KMph or 1 Gbps nomadic/portable



IP/Web

based services with QoS fro peer
-
peer services



Reconfigurable/
dynamic

service provisionable
(sensor/cognitive networks)



Seamless

roaming among heterogeneous
1

networks



Scalable

(up and down) in cost, performance and power



Backward
compatible

Distinctions between Portability, Nomadicity and Mobility are eliminated.

Connectivity is ABC


Always Best Connected.

1. Technology


1
Could include 2/2.5/3G/LTE, WLAN/WMAN/WPAN, DVB/DAB

IMT
-
A


International Mobile Telecommunications (Advanced)

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
6

of 25


Mission


B3G or 4G

Source: Wireless World Research Forum

Ubiquitous access, with pervasive, dynamically provisionable services

“Any Service, Any Place, Any Person, Any Time, Any Network, Any Device”

1. Technology

MAGIC
-

M
obile multimedia,
A
nytime/any
-
where,
G
lobal roaming,
I
ntegrated
wireless and
C
ustomized personal service


Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
7

of 25


Cellular Technology
-
Mobility Map

High data rates, high mobility along with wide area coverage

are the hallmarks of future Mobile Broadband services

Source: Telephony/Tellabs, Inc., 2006

1. Technology
-

Supply

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
8

of 25


Projected Capacity Needs
-

Developed Market (EU)

1. Services
-

Demand

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
9

of 25


Next Gen Services


Video Centric


All we need is a small number of “sticky” services (e.g., caller
-
id in 90’s)


MCBCS


Multicast and Broadcast Services


But are FLO and DVB
-
H competitive or complementary to
3G?



Personal Security/Safety, Remote Device Management



Navigational


Location centric



M
-
Wallet


Swiss army knife: phone/PDA/map reader/ credit card/…



Collaborative Citizen Journalism


Mobile vlogs

1. Services
-

Drivers

FLO


Forward Link Only (FLASH
-
OFDM based video broadcast)

DVB
-
H


Digital Video Broadcast


Handheld, based on DVB
-
T

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
10

of 25


High Data Rates Can Create

New Business Opportunities

1. Services


Revenue Potential


Odds are good that mobile data services become popular.

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
11

of 25


Next Gen: Questions


Will consolidation of standards occur? Will it be a good thing?


How many variants of OFDMA do we need?


The NMGN group of operators are not quite united


Vendors want to hedge bets over multiple standards (IPR)



Will a few “sticky” applications emerge to exploit the high
data rates?


Or, the additional capacity may not “buy” much while it may
“cost” too much?


Or, will voice remain the “killer app”?



Will the cost of backward compatibility justify its benefits?


Or, will some disruptive paradigms provide better cost/benefits?



Will the technical challenges of integrating everything
overwhelm the solution space?


Or, will opportunistic, point
-
solutions abound?



Will operators view the migration to NG as tactical (cost
centered) or strategic (forward looking)?

1. Technology and Services


Build it and they will come?

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
12

of 25


Issues When Migrating from 3G to B3G or 4G


Spectrum issues


Availability of suitable bands and bandwidths (see next slide)


Cost: auctions or beauty contests?



Business model shift ?


Licensed spectrum for premium services








unlicensed spectrum for recreational or non mission
-
critical
services



Compatibility: an Albatross


E.g., EVRC (CDMA) or AMR (WCDMA) to VoIP transcoding
while maintaining voice quality



Standards Issue


Incomplete specifications (e.g., 3G Layer 2) left to the
implementer

2. Migration

EVRC = Enhanced Variable Rate CODEC

AMR = Adaptive Multi
-
Rate

Isolated access networks are purpose
-
built and may not share back office

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
13

of 25


Scope of Migration


Vertical


Within a family of technology, e.g., CDMA


UMB


TEF or UMTS


HSPA


LTE


Horizontal


Within a service offering, e.g., FMC (Fixed/Mobile
Convergence)


Cross


Across service providers, e.g., How to charge for
FMC roaming


Dynamic


Introduction of new situations, e.g., New handheld
app not registered for a “patch” during roaming

2. Migration

Putting it together is too complex and sophisticated for existing solutions

TEF = Technology Evolution Framework

LTE = Long Term Evolution

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
14

of 25


Steps of Migration


Start with the Core network


IMS/service provisioning


All
-
IP infrastructure



Complete vertical migration



Opportunistically complete horizontal
migration



Same for geographies covered


2. Migration

Depending on costs involved, migration can only begin as
spotty/sporadic and then spread to all
-
pervasive.

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
15

of 25


Cost of Migration to 4G

Some sample costs in 3G space

1.
Backhaul upgrade


$30
-
60M to convert 10,000 base stations from 2 to 4 T1’s

2.
WiMAX (Sprint) buildout


$3B for RAN over 3 years to cover 200 M pop

3.
Migrating CDMA2000 to 1xEVDOrA (Verizon Wireless)


$6B over 3 years for a “nationwide” footprint



4G Hardware provides high speeds, QoS and control
mechanisms; hardware costs tend to be “commoditized”,
so volume will drive them down.



The key costs for 4G lie in the
software

that ties everything
together

2. Migration

Software being labor intensive, 4G costs can be considerably high,

requiring higher returns than 3G

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
16

of 25


Who Gets to Play?

-

Service Providers


Cellular Mobile Service Providers


Established world wide with CDMA and UMTS



Broadband Wireless Providers


Competitive carriers plus some established ones



Fixed (wireline and wireless) providers


Municipalities, chain stores



Broadcasters


Local TV Direct to Mobile

3. Competition

Some well funded startups will participate and surprisingly be successful.

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
17

of 25


Who Gets to Play?

-

Equipment/Device Vendors


Cellular Mobile Infra and handset/PCMCIA card
Providers


Established world wide with CDMA and UMTS


Alcatel
-
Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia
-
Siemens, Huawei, Samsung,
too many others



Enterprise equipment providers


Established and start ups


Cisco, Avaya, Siemens, several others



Hardware chipset providers


RFIC, Baseband processors, Network processors, DSPs


Established (Intel, TI, Broadcom) and startups



Application Software Providers


Mostly creative enterprises


Startups around the globe

3. Competition

Successful startups are rewarded when bought out by large vendors.

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
18

of 25


What is it Played on?

-

Technology


Three parallel efforts using OFDMA


UMTS (3GPP): OFDMA/FDMA


CDMA (3GPP2): CDMA/OFDMA/TDMA


IEEE (WiMAX) 802.16m and 802.20: OFDMA/OFDMA



Flat network of IP


Straight layer 3


QoS is a serious issue that will get resolved



IMS


NGOSS (Next Gen Operations Support Systems)


SOA (Service Oriented Architecture)

3. Competition

IP over OFDMA is the next big technology (after TDMA and CDMA).

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
19

of 25


802.16/WiMAX


“A Stepping Stone”

802.16/WiMAX

Support for high

data rates

Open standards
based network

Support for
Mobility & Next
Generation
services

Support from
major industry
players


IEEE 802 Committee

Physical Layer

-

RF, Power, Modulation, Coding

-

Fixed and Mobile

MAC Layer

-

Framing, Security, Scheduling

-

Handover/Mobility

Standards

-

802.16
d

and
e

(Ref interface R1)


WiMAX Forum

End
-
end Networking

-

Reference architecture

Signaling, Network Mobility

-
Messaging

Standards

-

Ref interfaces R2
-
R8

Equipment Certification

-

Europe and Asia


WiMAX is a
Data Service


3. Competition: Cellular vs BWA

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
20

of 25


Competitive Access Technologies
(Q1 2007)

WLAN

802.11n

Cellular
3G

Cellular
3.5G
cdma2000

Cellular
3.5G
UMTS

802.16e/
WiMAX

1 Technology

OFDM/TDM

T/F/CDMA

CDMA/

OFDMA

OFDMA/

FDMA

OFDMA/

OFDMA

2 Spectrum

Unlicensed

Licensed

Licensed

Licensed

Licensed

3 BW Allocn

Fixed

Semi
-
fixed

Flexible

Flexible

Flexible

4 Data rate*

70Mbps

1Mbps

70Mbps

40Mbps

70Mbps

5 Distance

50 M

2
-
5 KM

2
-
5 KM

2
-
5 KM

2
-
5 KM

6 Voice

VoIP

TDM

CDMA/VoIP

TDM/VoIP

VoIP

7 Video

Streaming,
HD

Streaming

Streaming,
HD

Streaming,
HD

Streaming,
HD

8 Security

MAC/IP

IP

IP

IP

MAC/IP

9 QoS

MAC

TDM/
ATM

MAC

MAC

MAC

10 Mobility

Portable

Mobile

Mobile

Mobile

Mobile

11 Cost (incr)

Low

Medium

High

High

Medium

* Typical of the several possible

Bold
font = strength of the technology

3. Competition
-

Comparison

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
21

of 25


Issues


Universal Spectrum


2.5 in US, 3.5 in 77 countries


Unlicensed vs licensed


Broadcast TV Spectrum: A
wildcard


RF cost is 40% of total


Technology Maturation


Large investment by large
players


Technology evaluation is
complex


IPR fees

Bringing new technology to market (Cost $$) vs

Bringing new customers (apps) (Revenue $$) to market.

4. Issues


Technology Competition


Spectrum moratorium


Co
-
operation (“CLEC”
status)


Backhaul


Lack of suitable capacity
& connectivity


Cost is 25% of total


End to end Network


IMS/OSS/BSS
integration timeline


Applications


Ecosystem (OS, UI,
eCommerce models)

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
22

of 25


Issues
-

Content


Crucial Element


Video service depends on it



Future of Broadcast Video



Future of Linear Video


Vs. time and space shifted programming



Content Owners are Inflexible


Learnt from the music industry



Content Owners will Make the Most $$


Network (or “pipe”) providers believe so

Content owners’ non
-
cooperation can be an “App Killer”

4. Issues

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
23

of 25


Threats and Opportunities


Risks


Technology


Market


Rewards


Early movers’


Innovators’


Critical Success Factors


Spectrum issues resolved


Harmonization among 3G LTE/TEF/WiMAX


Attractive price points


Application “pull” leading to competition

5. Conclusion

Bigger bets will be placed for larger payoffs



Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
24

of 25


Backup Slides

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
25

of 25


WCDMA (3GPP) Performance Roadmap



Latency
(ms)


Capacity DL

(Mbps/5 MHz)


Peak DL

(Mbps/5 MHz)

Capacity UL

(Mbps/5 MHz)

Peak UL

(Mbps/5 MHz)




100




2.5




4.3




1




0.384




75




2.5 (4
-
5)




14




1
-
2




~2




30
-
50




4
-
5




14




~2




4
-
6




10
-
15 10




4
-
5* 8
-
10




14* 25




~2 4
-
5




4
-
6 12.5



HSDPA


Enh UL


HSDPA Ph2


(GRAKE)



MBMS



Enh UL Ph2


3G LTE




150




1




0.384




1




0.064

2004

2005



R99

2006

2007
-
8

2009

WCDMA OFDM


(Targets)

OFDM on
20 MHz
gives 100
/ 50 Mbps
in DL / UL
resp. 2x2
ant.enna
assumed
for the DL

* With 2x2 MIMO in DL
these numbers will be
higher

Pradeep Samudra April 2007



Page
26

of 25


Cdma2000 Roadmap

(Source: CDG)

© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

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