PEEX Science Plan

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PEEX Sci
e
nce Plan





PEEX “Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment” study is a multidisciplinary climate change, air quality, environment
and
research infrastructure program focused on the Northern Eurasian particularly arctic and boreal
regions. PEEX research agenda is reinforced by the services, adaptation and mitigation plans for the
Northern societies to cope with the global change. It is a
bottom up initiative by several European,
Russian and Chinese research organizations and institutes. PEEX is open for other institutes to join in.
More information on the project can be obtained from
:
www.atm
.helsinki.fi/peex
.






Version
0.
4

Document reference: PEEX_SP_
v0
.
4










Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

Science

Plan

REF : PEEX SP

ISSUE : 0.4

DATE

8.M
AY.
2013

PAGE :
2


2



PEEX SCIE
NCE

PLAN

STATUS

T
his document

(version 0.4)
, dated on
MAY 08
, 2013
, is the draft version of the PEEX Science Plan
(SP). The content of
this document

is

an updated version of SP 0.3.
The list of the implem
ented
comments by the date of 8.May
.2013 is presented in
DOCUMENT STATUS SHEET
of this document
.
It
should be noted that

the Science Plan is currently under editorial process
. Furthermore, the content of

the document
is not yet a balanced presentation of the PEEX agenda
. New material
and topics

could be

included to cover all the research, research infrastructure and soci
al aspects related to climate

change
in the Northern Pan
-
Eurasian ar
ctic and boreal
forests regions
.


To keep up the momentum of the PEEX process towards a large scale Pan
-
Eurasian initiative this
document

is
distributed for comments to Russian, Chinese and European national funding agencies
and research institutes
on 8.May
.2013. The aim of this comment around is (i) to receive
general
remarks on the PEEX agenda and (ii
) to

gather the

PEEX research community and survey the potential
stakeholder groups.
The schedule for the PEEX
Science
Plan is

to have the first full version

ready
after
the
PEEX
-
3 meeting
;

to be held in Hyytiälä (SMEAR
-
II station ) Finland on 26
-
28.Aug.2013
.


PEEX meetings:

-

PEEX
-
1

meeting

in
Helsinki (
2
-
4.Oct.2012)
was organized by University of Helsinki, Division of
Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) and Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). There
were over 80

participants from
42

research institutes
from Russia
, China and 11 European countries.

-

PEEX
-
2

meeting

in
Moscow (
12
-
14.Feb.2013)
was

organized by Section of Oceanology,
Atmospheric Physics and Geography of the Div. Earth Sciences (RAS). There were 50

participants
from
different

research institutes from Russia (RAS, Roshydromet, Lomonosov MSU,
AEROCOSMOS, St
-
Petersbur
g SU)

and Finland (Univ.Helsinki, FMI) and representatives from
different types of European research instances (EC, ISAC, Democritos, Nansen Center, IIASA,
Estonian University of Life Sciences).

-

PEEX
-
3

meeting to be
organized by the University of
Helsinki
in SMEAR II station, in

Hyytiälä
forest field station

(SMEAR II station)
,
Fi
nland on 26.
-
28.Aug.2013.

Preparatory Committee:

Academy Prof. Markku
Kulmala

(Univ.Helsinki)
,
Prof. Sergej
Zilitinkevich

(FMI)
,
Director Yrjö
Viisanen

(FMI)
,

Prof.

Vladimir

Kotlyakov

(Inst. of

Geography)
,
Prof.
Nikoly

Kasimov

(Moscow S
tate University)
,

Prof.

Valeriy

Bondur

(AEROCOSMOS)
,
Prof.
Gennady
Matvienko

(Inst. of At
mo
s
pheric Optics SB RAS)

and EU/JPI representative
s
.

Preparatory

Phase
PEEX Project Office
:

Heads
Prof. Markku Kulmala

(Univ.Helsinki)
, Prof. Sergej Zilitinkevich (FMI),

Executive Officer
,

Research Coordinator Dr.
Hanna

K.

Lappalainen
, Univ.Helsinki

ATM/FMI

Science Officer
,

Head of Measurement Group, Dr.
Tuukka Petäjä
, Univ.Helsinki

ATM

Project

Off
ic
er, Dr. Joni Kujansuu
, Univ.Helsi
nki ATM

PEEX website:

http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/



Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

Science

Plan

REF : PEEX SP

ISSUE : 0.4

DATE

8.M
AY.
2013

PAGE :
3


3



ABSTRACT


PEEX is a multidisciplinary research project aiming at resolving the major uncertainties in the Earth
system science and global sustainability questions in the Arctic and boreal Pan
-
Eurasian regions. The
vision of the
P
an
E
urasian
EX
periment (
PEEX
)
is to s
olve interlinked global
challenges influencing the
human well
-
being and societies in the northern Eurasia,

such as climate change, air quality,
biodiversity loss, chemicalisation, food supply, use of natural resources by mining industry, energy
production and transport, in an integrative way, recognizing the important role of the arctic and boreal
ecosystems i
n the Earth system.

The PEEX vision includes establishing and maintainen long
-
term,
coherent
and coordinated research activities and research and educational infrastructures in the PEEX
domain.

PEEX will use an integrated observational and modelling frame
work to identify different forcing and
feedback mechanisms in the northern parts of the Earth system, and therefore enable more reliable
predictions of future regional and global climate. Because of the already observable effects of climate
change on socie
ty and the specific role of Arctic and boreal regions in this context, PEEX emphasizes
the need to establish next
-
generation research in this area. PEEX will provide fast
-
track assessments of
global environmental change issues for climate policy
-
making and

mitigation and adaptation strategies
for the northern Pan
-
Eurasian region. PEEX is built on the collaboration between European, Russian
and Chinese partners, and it is open for a broader collaboration in the future. The PEEX community will
include scienti
sts from various disciplines, funders, policy
-
makers and stakeholders from industry,
transport, food production and trade, and it will aim at co
-
designing research in the region in the spirit
of Future Earth.

PEEX aims to be operational starting from 2014
. It will start building the long
-
term, continuous and
comprehensive research infrastructures (RI) in the northern Pan
-
Eurasia. These RIs will include ground
-
based, aircraft and satellite observations as well asmulti
-
scale modelling. The
PEEX domain covers

the
Eurasian boreal zone and Arctic regions of the
hemisphere
, including the marine areas such as the
Baltic, North Sea and the Arctic Ocean. The PEEX research agenda focusses on the multi
disciplinary
process understanding of the Earth system on all relevant spatial and temporal scales ranging from the
nano scale to the global scale. The strategic focus is to ensure the long
-
term continuation of advanced
measurements in the land
-
atmosphere
-
ocean continuum in northern Eurasian area.

The scientific results of PEEX will be used to develop new climate scenarios at global and regional
scales.
PEEX aims to contribute to the Earth system science agenda and climate policy for topics
important to Pa
n
-
Eurasian

environment and society to help the Pan
-
Eurasian region towards a
sustainable future.






Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

Science

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REF : PEEX SP

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AY.
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4



PEEX consists of 4 focus areas:

Focus
-
1 PEEX research agenda

to

understand the Earth system and the influence of environmental and societal changes in pristine
and industrialized Pan
-
Eurasian environments. Especially, PEEX aims to determine the processes
relevant to the climate change in the Pan Eurasian region.

Focus
-
2 PEEX Infrastructures

to establish and sustain long
-
term, continuous and comprehensive ground
-
base airborne and seaborne
research infrastructures, and to utilise satellite data and multi
-
scale model frameworks. The data sets
and archives will be develope
d and utilised in a joint manner. Validated and harmonized data products
will be implemented to the models of appropriate spatial and temporal scales and topical focus.

Focus
-
3 PEEX Society dimension

to
contribute to regional climate scenarios in the north
ern Pan
-
Eurasia and determine the relevant
factors and interactions influencing human and societal wellbeing. Furthermore, it will assess the
natural hazards (foods, forest fires, extreme water events, risks for structures built on permafrost)
related to c
ryospheric changes in the PEEX domain and provide adaptation and mitigation strategies
for sustainable land
-
use, energy production and human well
-
being.

Focus
-
4
Knowledge Transfer


to

promote the

dissemination of

PEEX scientific results and strategies in
scientific and stake
-
holder
communities and policy making, to educate the next generation of multidisciplinary global change
experts and scientists, and to increase the public awareness of climate change impac
ts in the Pan
-
Eurasian region.

VISION

PEEX is
a mu
ltidisciplinary research initiative

aiming at resolving the major uncertainties in the Earth
system science and global sustainability questions in the Arctic and boreal Pan
-
Eurasian region. The
vision of PEEX is to solve interlinked global challenges i
nfluencing the human well
-
being and societies
in the northern Eurasia, such as

climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalisation, food
supply, energy production and fresh water, in an integrative way, recognizing the significant role of
borea
l regions and Arctic in the context of global cha
nge.

The PEEX vision includes the establishment and maintenance of long
-
term, coherent and coordinated
research activities and research & educational infrastructures in the PEEX domain. PEEX aims to
contribute to the Earth system science agenda and climate policy in topics important to the Pan
-
Eurasian environment and to provide adaptation and mitigation strategies for the northern Pan
-
Eurasian societi
es to cope with climate change.

MISSION



Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

Science

Plan

REF : PEEX SP

ISSUE : 0.4

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AY.
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5



to be a

n
ext
generation

natural sciences and socie
-
economic
reseach initiative
having a major impact
on the future environmental, socio
-
economic and demography development of the Arctic and boreal
regions. to be a science community building novel infrastructures

in the Northern PanEurasian region
.




Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

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6





CONTENTS

PEEX SCIENCE PLAN STATUS

................................
................................
................................
................................
.....

2

ABSTRACT

................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
.

3

EXCECUTIVE SUMMARY

................................
................................
................................
................................
............

8

1 INTRODUCTION

................................
................................
................................
................................
...................

14

2 OBJECTIVES

................................
................................
................................
................................
..........................

16

3 PEEX INITIATIVE BACKGROUND

................................
................................
................................
...........................

17

4. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PEEX DOMAIN

................................
................................
................................
...........

17

4.1.
TERRESTIAL BIOMES AND GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS

................................
................................
................................
..

18

4.1.1 BOREAL FORESTS


TAIGA

................................
................................
................................
................................

18

4.1.2
THE SUB
-
ARCTIC AND ALPINE TUNDRA

................................
................................
................................
.............

19

4.1.3 PEATLANDS
................................
................................
................................
................................
.......................

20

4.2 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: THE ARCTIC OCEAN

................................
................................
................................
............

20

4.2.1 OCEAN, SEA ICE, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

................................
................................
................................
..........

21

4.2.2 ARCTIC MARINE REGIONS

................................
................................
................................
................................
.

23

4.3 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: ARCTIC AND BOREAL LAKES

................................
................................
...............................

25

4.4 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: LARGE RIVER SYSTEMS

................................
................................
................................
......

26

4.5 PERMAFROST REGIONS OF PEEX DOMAIN

................................
................................
................................
...............

2
7

4.6 URBAN REGIONS

................................
................................
................................
................................
......................

29

4.7
NORTHEN SOCIETIES AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT

................................
................................
.....................

31

4.8 NATURAL RESOURCES: OIL, NATURAL GAS, TIMBER, COAL CONSUMTION, WIND, WATER

................................
......

32

5. PEEX RESEARCH AGENDA

................................
................................
................................
................................
....

34

5.1 BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

................................
................................
................................
................................
.......

39

5.1.1 HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

................................
................................
................................
................................
......

39

5.1.2 CARBON
CYCLE

................................
................................
................................
................................
.................

42

5.1.3 NITROGEN CYCLE

................................
................................
................................
................................
..............

45

5.1.4 PHOSPHORUS CYCLE

................................
................................
................................
................................
.........

46

5.1.5 LAND ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURAL CHANGES

................................
................................
................................
.......

48

5.2 ATMOSPHERE : COMPOSITION AND CHEMISTRY

................................
................................
................................
.....

49

5.2.1 GREENHOUSE GASES

................................
................................
................................
................................
........

50

5.2.2 AEROSOLS AND CLOUDS

................................
................................
................................
................................
...

51

5.
3 ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

................................
................................
................................
................................
.......

53

5.3.1 BOUNDARY LAYER

................................
................................
................................
................................
............

53

5.3.2 ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
................................
................................
................................
............................

54

5.4 HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS

................................
................................
................................
................................
..

56

5.4.1 ELECTROMAGNETIC (EM) WEATHER AND CLIMATE

................................
................................
..........................

56

5.4.2 HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS
................................
................................
................................
...........................

57

5.5 OCEANS

................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
...

58

5.6 PERMAFROST
-

CLIMATE VARIATIONS ACCOMPANIED BY THE POLAR AMPLIFICATION OF THE CLIMATIC SIGNALS

60

5.7

SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES

................................
................................
.....

61

5.7.1 HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND ENVIRONMENT

................................
................................
................................
........

62

5.7.2 NATURAL HAZARDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

................................
................................
...........................

65

5.7.3 SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN

................................
................................
............................

68

6. PEEX RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE

................................
................................
................................
.....................

70

6.1 MEASUREMENTS

................................
................................
................................
................................
.....................

71


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-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

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6.1.2 FIELD MEASUREMENTS: LAND


ATMOSPHERE


AQUATIC

................................
................................
..............

71

6.1.2 REMOTE SENSING

................................
................................
................................
................................
.............

80

6.1.3 LABORATORY

................................
................................
................................
................................
....................

82

6.3 MODELS

................................
................................
................................
................................
................................
...

83

6.3.1 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

................................
................................
................................
................................
...

83

6.3.2 MODELLING SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

................................
................................
...............................

88

6.4 PEEX MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME AND STANDARDIZED DATA PRODUCTS

................................
..........................

89

6.4.1 ESTABLISHMENT OF PERMANENT PEEX DATA
PLATFORM

................................
................................
................

89

6.4.2 HARMONIZATION OF PEEX DATA PRODUCTS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MEASUREMENTS SYSTEMS

.............

90

6.4.3 SYNERGY WITH THE EXISTING ARCTIC AND BOREAL MONITORING PROGRAMME

................................
...........

90

7. PEEX SOCIETY DIMENSION

................................
................................
................................
................................
..

92

7.1 MITIGATION PLANS

................................
................................
................................
................................
.................

93

7.1.1 AG
RICULTURE AND FORESTRY

................................
................................
................................
..........................

93

7.1.2 ENERGY PRODUCTION AND MANUFACTURING

................................
................................
................................

94

7.1.3 WASTE MANAGEMENT

................................
................................
................................
................................
.....

95

7.1.5

BUILT STRUCTURES AND URBAN PLANNING

................................
................................
................................
....

95

7.1.6 GEOENGINEERING

................................
................................
................................
................................
............

97

7.1.7 PROTECTING THE NATURAL CARBON SINKS
................................
................................
................................
.....

97

7.1.8 CLIMATE POLICY MAKING

................................
................................
................................
................................
.

98

7.2 ADAPATION PLAN AND FORESEEN RISKS

................................
................................
................................
...............

100

7.2 SERVICES TO DIFFERENT STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIETY

................................
................................
.........................

100

7.2.1 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR TIMELY MITIGATION

................................
................................
......................

100

8. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER

................................
................................
................................
................................
...

102

8.1 FUTURE CAPACITY BUILDING

................................
................................
................................
................................
.

102

8.1.2 PEEX EDUCATIONAL AND STUDENT EXCHANGE PROGRAMME

................................
................................
.......

102

8.2
STRUCTURING FUTURE RESEARCH AND RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURES

................................
...............................

103

8.2.2 TOWARDS A NEW, INTEGRATED EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH COMMUNITY

................................
....................

103

8.2.2 RESEARCH
INFRASTRUCTURES

................................
................................
................................
.......................

104

8.3
RISING THE AWARENESS OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLOBAL CHANGE TO SOCIETY

................................
.............

104

DOCUMENT STATUS SHEET

................................
................................
................................
................................
...

105

11. REFERENCES

................................
................................
................................
................................
....................

108

12. ACRONYM
LIST

................................
................................
................................
................................
...............

108

13. ANNEXES
................................
................................
................................
................................
.........................

108

13.1 ANNEX: LIST OF CONTRBUTING INSTITUTES

................................
................................
................................
........

108





Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

Science

Plan

REF : PEEX SP

ISSUE : 0.4

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AY.
2013

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E
EXEEX
XECUTIVE SUMMARY



EXCECUTIVE SUMMARY


The feedback dy
namics between
the global drivers
;
demographics,

natural resources demand,

globalization

and

climate change

sets the
focus
of
the next 40 years
global mega
trends
on the
Northern latitudes

and
the
Arctic regions
.

To cope
with the consequences
of climate change in a
global

scale, the tra
nsformation of the civilization

and
natural ecosystems, are

one of the ultimate
challenges of the 21
st
century.

It is expected, that the Northern regions, land and ocean areas lying
45

N latitude or higher, will undergo conseq
uential change
during the next 4
0 years. Even the most
moderate climate scenarios predict that the northern high latitudes will warm
1.5

C
-
2.5

C by the mid
of century and 3.5

C by the end of the century, which is more than double compared to the global
average warming (ref. IPCC).

Climate warming is

shaking
the dynamics of the whole global climate system and is also triggering
interlinked loops between the other three global f
orces. Warming will a
ffect the demography trends in
a way that
the
urbanization and
the
migration to Northern region
s

will be increased. One of major
consequences of warming of Northern latitudes is
related changes in
c
ryos
phere including the
thaw

of
perma
frost and Arctic Ocean being free of sea ice part of the year. This will accelerate global trade
activities in the Arctic region if the Northern sea route is opened for shipping between the Atlantic and
Asia’s Far East. Northern ecosystems and arctic regio
ns are a source of major natural re
sources such as
oil,
natural gas

and minerals

and their exploitation
may increase if the infrastructure

sustained
as
permafrost is
thaw
.
Along with these positive or ambivalent Northern trends the ecosystems will
undergo
oppressive changes including new species expansion or extinction of existing ones having
unpredictable consequences on food webs or primary production of different plant ecosystems.


PEEX “
Pan Eurasian

Experiment”

is a multidisciplinary clim
ate change
, air

quality, environment
,
ecosystems

and research

and

infrastr
u
cture program focused on the

Northern Eurasian particularly
arctic and boreal regions
.
The overall goal of PEEX is to:

to solve interlinked global challenges like
climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalisation, food supply, energy production and fresh
water in integrative way
recognizing
the increasing role of the arctic and northern boreal forests in the
contex
t

of global change
.

PEEX vision
includes to establish and
to
maintain
a
long
-
term coherent
and coordinated research
activ
ity and research & educational
infra
structure in PEEX domain. PEEX
aims to contribute to the
Earth system science agenda and
climate policy for topics inherent to Pan
-
Eurasian

environment and
provide mitigation
and adaptation
assessment

of Northern Pan
Eurasian

societies to cope with climate
change.

Due to the already seen impacts of climate change on the society and the specifi
c role of
permafrost and boreal forest regions this context, PEEX initiative emphasizes the fast actions needed
for establishing PEEX domain, the next generation research
infrastructure

in the field of boreal and
arctic research. PEEX is targeted to provid
e fast tract
assessments

for the climate policy making in a
global scale and mitigation strategies for the
Northern

Pan Eurasian

region.


Pan
-
Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

Science

Plan

REF : PEEX SP

ISSUE : 0.4

DATE

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AY.
2013

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9



PEEX is planned to be active starting from 2013
-
2014 in a
continuous

manner establishing a long
-
term research infrastru
cture (RI) in the Northe
r
n Pan Eurasian.
PEEX domain covers major part of
relevant areas of boreal forest zone and permafrost regions of the
Northern
hemisphere

including the
ma
r
i
ti
m
e
environ
ments
. PEEX research is

based on the collaboration of
Russian
,

Chines
e

and European
parties and
is aimed
to prove revolutionary impact on global climate policy making.

The
Pan Eurasian

Experiment
(PEEX) Science
Plan

describes the

specific characteristics of the
geographical regions of the programme,

programme

ob
jectives and science, socie
tal and educational
priorities and research infrastructure development
.
The PEEX domain covers natural and
urban
environments of Northern Pan
-
Eurasian region. The natural environments include boreal coniferous
and deciduous forests, steppe, wetlands and aquatic ecosystems including marshes, large river systems
and freshwater bodies as well as the marine ecosystems, mountains and sub
-
arctic tund
ra ecosystems.
Siberia is the core geographical region of the PEEX domain. The majority of
the
PEEX geographical
domain is situation in
the territory of
Russia and China.


Research agenda

outlines
the most relevant

questions
related to research
in the arct
ic and boreal
Northern Eurasian and the aspects related to mitigation
and adaptation
plans of Norther
n societies
.
The PEEX agenda is
divided

into four focus areas:

1
.
Research agenda
, 2.
Infrastructures
, 3.

Society
Dimensi
on

and 4.

Knowledge Transfer
Focus
-
1: PEEX

Research A
genda

T
he

main goal of

PEEX
Research agenda

is to
contribute
and to solving

the scientific questions that
are specifically important for the Pan
-
Eurasian region in the coming years, in particular the global
climate change and its consequences to nature and human society
.

In a global scale it is important

to
understand
the impacts

and feedbacks to Climate / Ear
th system and to determine the
climate change
relevant processes
especially
in Pan Eurasian region
.

The PEEX
Research agenda

covers different spatial and temporal components, ecosystems, biomes or
geographical regions includ
ing natural
and

urban regions. The large scale components covered by PEEX
are land, atmosphere and ocean, the compartments of an Earth System Model (ESM)
. Each of them
can also be divided into smaller sub
-
components such as boreal forests, tundra, peatland
s, freshwater
lakes and rivers; boundary layer, stratosphere, troposphere; and shores, continental shelves and
pelagic regions
. The studied
biogeochemical cycles

under
the
Research agenda

are: water, carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur cycles.
The

Pan Eurasian area holds a large pool of recently stored
carbon within the biota but also a vast storage of fossil carbon storage within the soil beneath. Due to
this large storage,
even
small changes in the carbon release and emissions can have global clim
ate
consequences.
For example, t
he impacts of the boreal ecosystems are seen in the surface
energy
balance, albedo and exchange of aerosol precursors and greenhouse gases
. Knowledge of these
processes including
planetary boundary layer mechanisms

is requir
ed for the Earth system modelling
and
for

understanding human
-
induced warming.
The on
-
going environmental change in the PEEX
domain will affect the atmospheric circulation as the lower boundary forcing will change.
In this
process
t
he Arctic Ocean plays a
major role
.

From the point of view of the interaction between the
ocean and the other components of the Earth system addressed in the PEEX science plan, the
essential
processes include the air
-
sea exchange of momentum, heat, and matter

as well as dynamics and

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thermodynamics of sea ice.

Many of the processes considered responsible for the
Arctic amplification

of climate warming are related to the ocean.

In temporal scale
, the

process understanding needs to be
covering
range from the sub
-
atomic level to the whole Earth System, roughly 25 orders of magnitude
in both spatial and temporal (10

15

s to 100

1000 years) scales.


The PEEX domain covers
wide range of human
-
natural system interactions and feedback processes,
with humans acting as bo
th the source of climate and environmental change and the recipient of the
impacts.

Reliable climate information and scenarios for the coming decades are crucial for the planning
and adaptation for cryosphere and climate chance impacts on the Northern soci
eties.


Human
decision
-
making regarding Earth system components such as land use and fossil fuel burning are
represented by Agent
-
Based Models (ABM), Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and climate
scenarios that PEEX both utilises and develops further for the Pa
n
-
Eurasian region. In urban and
industrialised regions the process understanding of biogeochemical cycles include anthropogenic
sources such as industry and fertilisers as indispensable parts of the biogeochemical cycles.
PEEX
scenarios on climate phenomen
a, especially estimates on the type and frequency of extreme events
and possible nonlinear responses for past, present and future conditions to provide enhanced climate
information and climate prediction capacities for Europe, Rus
sia and China. Furthremore
,
Socio


economic research
covers

(i)

the
superposition

of natur
al and socio
-
economic factors
,

(i
i)

the
dependence of consequences of natural change on socio
-
economic situation

and its dynamics
,

(ii
i)

opportunities and ways of
mitigation and adaptation

to

natu
ral and socio
-
economic change
, (iv)

the
spatial differentiation

of the reaction of societies on national, regional, and local levels (regional and
local, urban and rural cases) to natural
a
nd socio
-
economic challenges
.



PEEX large scale research q
uestions

1.

How are
the main climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, snow cover, cloudiness)
changing in the Pan
-
Eurasian region

over the next decades?

2.

What are the important feedbacks in the Pan
-
Eurasian climate sy
stem and how they are related
human
activities
and ecosystem behaviour
in short (decades) and long (millennia) time scales?

3.

How will the cryosphere
, including the Arctic sea ice extend, snow cover and permafrost, change
with changing climate?

4.

How fast w
ill the permafrost thaw proceed and
how

will it

af
fect ecosystem processes and

ecosystem
-
atmosphere feedbacks, including the hydrology and

greenhouse g
as fluxes
?

5.

How could the regions and processes especially sensitive to climate change be identified
,

and what
are the best met
hods to analyse t
heir responses
?

6.

Will there be tipping points in the future evolution of the Pan
-
Eurasian ecosystems and
demographic development?

7.

What are the present stage and expected changes of environmental pollution (air, water, soil) and
related stresses on popul
atio
n and ecosystems in Eurasia, and

h
ow will the
se

change
s

affect
societies (livelihoods, agriculture, forestry, industry)

8.

How will human actions influence further environmental change in the region?

9.

How do the fast climatic changes affect the physical, che
mical and biological stat
e of the different
ecosystems,
inland water
,
coastal area
s,

and the economies and societies in the region?


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10.

How could one identify the

environmental an
d socioeconomic areas

most
vulnerable

to climate
change
, and how could their adaptive capacities be improved?



Focus
-
2:

PEEX Infrastructure

PEEX research infrastructure (F
-
2
) aims to establish a long
-
term research infrastructure (RI)
including a comprehensive field station network in the region covering Scan
dinavia and Baltic
countries, Siberia and northern China. A hierarchical station network

to increase the needed
quantitative process understanding of the complex, multidisciplinary system

will be designed based on
the existing infrastructure

representing different environments (i) basic weather stations, (ii) flux
(Fluxnet) stations and (iii) flag ship stations with comprehensive ecosystem
-
atmosphere
measurements on sources and sinks for greenhouse gas
es, trace gases and aerosols
.

T
he

observ
ation sy
s
tem

based on the current
ly existing

infrastructure
will

be supplemented by the
super
-
site station

network.

A s
uper site station measure
s

meteorological and atmospheric factors

simultaneously together with ecosystem relevant pro
cesses (incl.
carbon, nutrient and water cycles,
vegetation dynamics, biotic and abiotic stresses
)
.

Ideally
,

the
PEEX
RI
will contain
one super site in all
major ecosystems, in practice a station in every 2000
-

3000 km.

The future PEE
X
research

infrastr
u
cture

is support
ing and
complementing aircraft and satellite observations and has
an

important role in validation, integration, full exploitation of remote sensing data

for Earth
Observations
.

Furthermore, p
rocedures for
improved
data quality including standardization of
instruments, methods, observations, data processing will be developed

taking
.

The role of remote
sensing observations is emphasized in the Arctic Ocean and maritime environments.
The PEEX
infrastructure will deliver critical long
-
term datasets for the cli
mate and air quality research including
evaluation of weather forecast and climate models. The strategic focus is to ensure the long
-
term
continuation of advanced measurements on aerosols, clouds, GHG
s

and
trace gases

in Northe
r
n
Eurasian area. The PEEX pr
oject is targeted
as

an integral part of the on
-
going work of scoping and
building the next generation
Euro
pean research infrastructures.
Linking PEEX to Europe
a
n RI
development ensures the optim
al

use of the infras
tructure
s
,

the d
ata and infrastructure sharing
of
Earth Observations
and
the
ir

sci
entific contribution towards

Earth S
ystem
modelling
.



Focus
-
3:

PEEX Society

di
mension



PEEX Society Dimension (F
-
3)

integrates the outcomes of the Research agenda (F
-
1) and
Infrastructure (F
-
2) and deliveres different types of scenarios on the
effects of climate change and air
quality on human popula
tion, society, energy resources and

capital flow.
PEEX will

provide m
itigation
and adaptation plans
and
strategies for the changing Arctic environments and societies

and
risk
-
analysis on

the
human related activities and
natural hazards (floods, forest fires, droughts)
.

These
plans include aspects of
sustainable land use,
health and energy production.

The
improved knowledge
and scenarios on climate phenomena, especially estimates on the type and frequency of extreme

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events and possible nonlinear responses for past,
present and future conditions are needed to

provide
enhance
d climate information and climate prediction
.


PEEX
Society dimension
(F
-
3) is

linked to the aims of the
research
pro
gram, but is strongly taking
into account
the
ongoing
social (political, economic)

characteristic
of the
PEEX domain
macroreg
ion
.

The main part of
the Arctic and boreal Pan
-
Eurasian region
,
situated within the boundaries of the
Russian Federation (Ru
ssia’s North and East),

has undergone rapid socio
-
economic transformation
during last twenty years (Regional…, 2011).

C
limate and other

natural change
are taking

place
parallel
with ongoing socio
-
economic

changes

interact
ing

in complex ways. T
he complexity and uncertainty of
the consequences of natural (including climate) change in this macroregion are much higher than in
the others. Russ
ia is greatly differentiated in socio
-
economic sense from West to East (European and
Asian parts of the country), but both by its federal subjects and within most of them (Regional…, 2011).
Therefore the consequences of one and the same natural change are
spatially not alike.
CHINA

text
-
to
-
be
-
added.
The PEEX

mitigat
ion and adapation plans
take into account this

high
uncertainty and
variation

of the consequences of natural (including climate) change influencing the human wellbeing
and societies in the
Arctic and boreal Pan
-
Eurasian region.

Thematic areas of concern for the
concequences of climate change are

(i) life conditions and life activity of population, (ii) industrial
construction and house building, (iii) land use, (iv) agriculture and forest
ry, (v) mining industry, (vi)
transport and (vii) tourism and recreation.

Furthremore,
PEEX
Society dimension

activity

(F
-
3) is linked
to climate policy making

The PEEX
agenda (research


infrastructure


society dimension) contributes to the global chal
lenges and
integrates the scientific results into policy making and in the context of in international scientific
organizations and networks such as
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(
IPCC
), IGAC and
iLEAPS of the

International Geosphere
-
Biosphere

P
rogramme

(
IGBP
)
. The iLEAPS/IGBP can bring
PEEX
at

an international policy level and
opens the channel to respond to the
Future Earth

initiative
that will re
-
organise
International Council for Science
,

ICSU’s
,

global environmental change (GEC)
programmes closer to social science and economics. They will be indispensable partners for natural
sciences on the road to solve the equation of one Earth (Future Earth programme) and a growing
human population. Future Ea
rth will mobilize international science community to work with policy
-
makers and other stakeholders to provide sustainability options and solutions in the wake of
Rio+20
.


Focus
-
4:
Knowledge Transfer


PEEX Knowledge transfer (F
-
4)

provide
s

education programmes for the next generation scientists,
instrument specialists and data engineers. It will distribute information for general public to build the
awareness of climate change and human impact on different scales of the climate problematic

and
and
increase visibility of the PEEX activities in Europe, Russian and China.

The major challenges faced by
PEEX knowledge transfer is to keep up momentum and reach the
public visibility of PEEX domain
among the numerous on
-
going large scale climate rel
ated
programmes, to explore the means to make PEEX research useful with clear messages to decision
makers and to integrate the PEEX infrastructure across national and scientific boundaries to build up a

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genuine international infrastructure, corresponding t
o the

ongoing

European Strategy Forum on
Research Infrastructures

process (
ESFRI
)
.
PEEX will engage the larger international scientific
communities also by collaborating with, utilising, and advancing major observation infrastructures such
as the SMEAR, IC
OS, ACTRIS, and ANAEE networks in addition to building its own in the Pan
-
Eurasian
region. PEEX will promote standard methods and best practices in creating long
-
term, comprehensive,
multidisciplinary observation data sets and coordinate model and data com
parisons and development;
PEEX will also strengthen the international scientific community via an extensive capacity building
programme.


PEEX will have a major input in Earth system research in Pan
-
Eurasia on many levels and, as a
bottom
-
up
initiative, it has engaged a large international scientific community already in the planning
phase. PEEX will also add to the building of
new, integrated Earth system research community

in the
Pan
-
Eurasian region by opening its research and modelling infr
astructure and inviting international
partners and organisations to share in its development and use. PEEX will be a major factor integrating
the socioeconomic and natural science communities to working together towards solving the major
challenges influen
cing the wellbeing of humans, societies, and ecosystems in the PEEX region.









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1
INTRODUCTION



A new North will be developed by the end of year 2050. It will be a location of increased human
activity, higher
strategic

value, and greater economic importance compared to today


(Smith
,

2010).

This prediction
postulat
es

that

the current
capability of
Earth system
-

climate and
economic models
predict general trends of climate change correctly
and

assuming
that no major
tec
hnical

breakthroughs

or any other low
-
probability

high impact event will no
t

take place.


According to Smith (2010) four
global forces

will be strongly

re
-
shaping the civilization’s

Northern
future in the next 40 years: (i)
demographics

(human population growth and migration trends), (ii)
increasing demand for
natural resources
(non
-
renewable and renewable assets, gene pool), (iii)
globalization

(the set of economic, social, technological processes making world interconnected and
interde
pendent) and (iv)
climate change

(global mean temperature increase).

Technology
development,
breakthroughs in geoengineering, in bio
-

and nano
-

and environmental technology, or in
material sciences,
can be seen as a fifth force, intertwined in the main glo
bal forcers.


Fig.
1

The f
our
forces

shaping
the
civilization’s
N
orthern

future



Adapted from
Smith (2010)
b
y
H.K.
Lappalainen.


The anticipated large effects of climate change and the related feedback dynamics between the
global forces sets one of the
key focus areas of climate change impacts on the Northern latitudes.

To
cope with the effects of climate change in a global scale, and with the transformations of civilizations
and ecosystems, is one of the ultimate challenges of the 21
st
century. It is
expected, that the Northern
regions, land and ocean areas located at 45

N latitude or higher, will undergo substantial changes
during the next 40 years. Even the most moderate climate scenarios predict that the northern high
latitudes will warm 1.5 C
-
2.5
°C by the mid of century and 3.5 C by the end of the century, which is
more than double compared to the global average warming (ref. IPCC).
The Eurasian area holds a large
pool of recently stored carbon within the biota and an inactive soil carbon pool in
permafrost areas,

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but also a vast storage of fossil carbon storage in the form of oil and gas deposits. Due to these large
storages, small changes in the carbon dynamics, release and emissions can have global climate
consequences. The impacts of the boreal

and Arctic
ecosystems are seen in the surface energy balance
and in the albedo and in the exchange of aerosol precursors and greenhouse gas.

Knowledge of these
processes including planetary boundary layer mechanisms is required for the applications in Ear
th
system
modelling

and in understanding human
-
induced warming (
Kulmala

et al.

2012

unpublished
).

Climate warming is upsetting the dynamics of the whole global climate system and also influencing
the interlinked loops between the other three global forces.

Warming will affect the demography
trends and urbanization and, consequently migration to Northern region is anticipated to be increased.
One of the major consequences of warming in the Northern latitudes is thawing of permafrost and
melting of ice over t
he Arctic Ocean. This will accelerate global trade activities in the Arctic region if the
Northern sea route is opened for shipping between the Atlantic and Asia’s Far East.
The n
orthern
and
A
rctic regions are
large

source
s

of
non
-
renewable
natural
resources such as oil and natural gas and
their exploitation will be easier as permafrost is thawing.

Along with these positive or ambivalent
trends, ecosystems will undergo
significant

changes, including appearance of invasive species or
extinction of exi
sting ones
, changes in ecosystem productivity and structure
,

and
modifications in their
roles as sinks or sources of climatically relevant gases
. These ecosystem changes may have
unpredictable consequences on

e.g.

food webs or
interactions between

differen
t ecosystems

and
human activities
.

In addition to the large scale aspects related to global change, the regional societal dimension
includes e.g. the durability of the infrastructure (power networks, buildings, ice roads) built on the
thawing permafrost ar
eas and issues related to ensuring the living conditions and culture of aboriginal
people living in the North.




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Fig.2
Selection of t
rends

shaping civilization’s
northern

future
,
fig
ure made

according Smith (2010) by
H.K.Lappalainen

(+ = increase,
-

decrease, arrows positive / negative impact)
.

(map
-

permafrost

http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew121130/ew121130b.html)


2
OBJECTIVES


PEEX is contributing

to

the grand challenges of the new North

(
see
Smith 2010)
.
The PEEX agenda is
designed to meet the challenges
in the
Nordic
,

produce
d by global forces.

PEEX agenda consists of 4

Focus areas / objectives
:

Focus
-
1 PEEX research agenda

to

understand the Earth system and the influence of environmental and societal changes in pristine
and industrialized Pan
-
Eurasian environments. Especially, PEEX aims to determine the processes
relevant to the climate change in the Pan Eurasian region.

Focus
-
2 PEEX Infrastructures

to establish and sustain long
-
term, continuous and comprehensive ground
-
base airborne and seaborne
research infrastructures, and to utilise satellite data and multi
-
scale model frameworks. The data sets
and archives will be dev
eloped and utilised in a joint manner. Validated and harmonized data products
will be implemented to the models of appropriate spatial and temporal scales and topical focus.

Focus
-
3 PEEX Society dimension

to
contribute to regional climate scenarios in the
northern Pan
-
Eurasia and determine the relevant
factors and interactions influencing human and societal wellbeing. Furthermore, it will assess the
natural hazards (foods, forest fires, extreme water events, risks for structures built on permafrost)
related

to cryospheric changes in the PEEX domain and provide adaptation and mitigation strategies
for sustainable land
-
use, energy production and human well
-
being.

Focus
-
4
Knowledge Transfer


to

promote the

dissemination of

PEEX scientific results and strategies in scientific and stake
-
holder
communities and policy making, to educate the next generation of multidisciplinary global change
experts and scientists, and to increase the public awareness of climate change impacts in

the Pan
-
Eurasian region.



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-
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Fig.3

PEEX Agenda meeting global forces driving the civilization’s Northern future.




3
PEEX
INITIATIVE BACKGROUN
D


PEEX

is a
bottom
-
up initiative

by several European, Russian and Chinese research organizations and
institutes.

The promoter
institutes here have

been University of Helsinki, Finnish Meteorological
Institute in Finland and
Inst.
of Geography
, Moscow State University, AEROCOSMOS and Inst. of
Atmospheric

Optics SB RAS in Russia.

PEEX
-
1 meeting was held in
Helsinki in October 2012 and PEEX
-
2 in Moscow in February 2013
(APPENDIX

1,2
).
PEEX is based on the collaboration
of Russian
,

Chines
e

and

European parties and can
be, in the best case,
an

epochal

action in the global climate policy making.

From
European

perspective
PEEX experiment can be considered as a crucial part of the strategic aims of several European and
national roadmaps for climate change research and the development of next genera
tion research
infrastructures.

PEEX is open for other institutes to join in.


4. CHARACTERISTICS O
F THE PEEX DOMAI
N

Eurasian continent comprises
of
various terrestrial eco
-
regions and geographical areas, which
have

vastly different ecological and climatic
conditions
.
The region is in general sparsely occupied, although
several large cities and industrial centers are located in the area.
The Eurasian ecosystems, including
e.g. the
boreal coniferous and deciduous forests, steppe, wetlands and aquatic ecosyste
ms including
marshes, large river systems and freshwater bodies as well as the marine ecosystems, mountains
and sub
-
arctic tundra
ecosystems

(Fig
)

affect the climate both loca
l
ly and globally
.



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-
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Fig.

Permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere, left; PEEX geographical study region marked red

(map by IPY),
Eco
-
regions of Russia and Scandinavia (Kulmala et al. 2011, right

ref.??
).

The
major

part of PEEX domain is
covered

by continuous

permafrost and only the Western part of
Siberia is characterized by
discontinue
d

or sporadic permafrost (see Vaks et al. 2013 Science).
Siberia
forms

the boreal fraction of Eurasia
with

extensive pristine forests and the largest natural wetland
areas, that

are significant for
trace gas

emission
s

(Guenther et al. 1995, Rinne et al. 2009, Timkovsky et
al. 2010), biogenic aerosol particles (e.g. Tunved et al. 2006, Dal Maso et al. 2008), and greenhouse gas
(GHG) exchange (Glagolev et al. 2010b).

Siberia is the

core geographical region of the PEEX domain.

Siberia is relatively clea
n

of air pollutants
in comparison with
many

surrounding regions
in

Asia and
Eastern Europe. However,
some
industrial
centres

in
north
we
stern
Siberia
are

significant

sources of
heavy
metals and sulphur dioxide, which cau
s
e

problems

for human health and deterioration of
ecosystems regionally
(Baklanov et al., 2012).
In some regions of
Siberia
,

ecosystems
are
severely

s
tressed by
the accumulation of pollution
,

originating

from cities and

industrial plants.
The PEEX
domain covers the arctic and boreal

/ hemiboreal

forest regions in Nordic Countries, Russian and
China.



4.1.

TERRESTIAL
B
IOMES AND GEOGRAPHIC
AL AREAS





4.1.1 BOREAL FORESTS



TAIGA



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-
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Boreal forests,

also known as Taiga, form the largest terrestrial biome and account for around one
third of the Earth’s forested area (Global Forest Watch, 2002).
Nearly 70% of boreal forests of the
world are situated in Siberian region.

Boreal forests

form the main veget
ation zone in the catchment
areas of large river systems, and thus are also an important part of global water
-
energy
-
carbon cycling.

Forest biomass and peatlands in the boreal forest zone together make up one of the world’s largest
carbon reservoir (Bolin
et al., 2000; Kasischke, 2000).
The storage is built over centuries due to rather
favourable conditions for carbon assimilation by woody plants and the simultaneous low mean
temperatures, restricting microbial decomposition.
The
forest biomass
forms

a posi
tive
climatic
feedback via

the anticipated

changes in
nutrient availability and temperatures
, impacting carbon
sequestered both into the aboveground biomass and the soil compartment
.

The large variations in temperature and light between seasons
influence

the composition and
function
s

of all boreal ecosystems. Many of the species found in boreal ecosystems are living at the
edge of their distribution, and are thus potentially susceptible to even moderate changes in their
environment. In these regions the n
atural and anthropogenic stresses are shaping the ecosystems and
have many important feedbacks to e.g. climate.
The changes in temperature and precipitation will be
reflected in forest production, but also in the occurrence of biogenic (pests, diseases) an
d abiotic
(drought, storms) stress events that may have huge impacts on carbon and water cyclin
g both
regionally and globally
, and in turn also to emissions of greenhouse gases in the afforested regions.

At
the same time, boreal vegetation is exposed
to
in
creased anthropogenic
influence by pollutant
deposition and land use changes

(Dentener et al., 2006; Bobbink et al., 2010
,

Savva & Berninger 2010).

The IPCC concluded that for increases in global average temperature exceeding 2ºC, global forests
will be a
t the risk of undesirable transformation (IPCC 2007). Boreal forests evolutionary developed
under stable cold climate

and their thresholds and buffering capacity are unknown. Very likely, that
boreal forests of Northern Eurasia will be specially affected d
ue to (1) dramatic changes of heat and
hydrological regimes over huge territories caused by permafrost melting; (2) sensitivity of boreal forest
ecosystems to warming and the high rates of expected worming in the region (up to 7
-
8 ºC); and (3)
dramatic acc
eleration of disturbance regimes, particularly fire, putbreaks of insects and diseases,
coupled with the tough anthropogenic impacts (Shvidenko et al., 2013).






Fig. Boreal forest zone (left), arctic
tundra

zone
(right). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:800px
-
Map
-
Tundra.png


4.1.2
THE SUB
-
ARCTIC AND ALPINE TU
NDRA



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The sub
-
Arctic and alpine tundra

in high latitudes and altitudes are characterized by short, in many
cases also cool

growing seasons, harsh and dark winter conditions and summertime midnight sun in
the
northernmost

regions, setting physical boundaries for ecosystem functions and e.g. for tree
growth. Rainfall and snowfall are generally moderate, but as also potential evapotranspiration is
extremely low, a terrain of swamps and bogs is formed even in places that get
precipitation typical of
deserts of lower and middle latitudes. The amount of native tundra biomass depends more on the
local temperature than the amount of precipitation.

The climatic conditions have also large impacts on carbon sequestration in vegetati
on and soils.
Approximately one third of the world's soil
-
bound carbon is located in the taiga and tundra soils. In
many sub
-
arctic and arctic tundra regions the subsoil is permafrost and forms a huge, immobilized
carbon storage. However, in summer months
the tundra is covered by
a mosaic of
small water bodies,
marshes, lakes and bogs, and can act as very strong sources of methane and N2O (nitrous oxide, an
extremely efficient greenhouse gas) (Repo et al 2009
, Elberling et al 2010
;
Elberling

et al. 2010).
V
ery
little is known about the
dynamics

of these emissions in tundra ecosystems as only sporadic
measurements have been made, but it has been estimated that these hot spots could amount to
approx. 0.1 Tg nitrous oxide yr
-
1, corresponding to 4% of the global

warming potential of Arctic
methane emissions at present. Thus, the fate of permafrost soils in tundra is important for global
climate in regards to all greenhouse gases. The melting of the permafrost in short time scales (decades
or centuries) could also

radically change species
composition and
distribution

in tundra.


4.1.3
PEATLANDS


Peatlands

occupy a relatively small fraction, about 3%, of the Earth’s land area, but they are a
globally important carbon

stor
age

and especially important in the boreal regions and high latitudes
(Frolking et al. 2011).

At present, boreal
peatla
n
ds

are a small
net
sink of carbon
, but their contribution
to the global greenhouse gas balance is large
.
P
eatlands

are inhabited by
archaea
,

methanogenic
bacteria, which produce methane
(CH4)
at the last stage of their metabolism (Vogels et al., 1988).
Since CH
4

is
a very
strong greenhouse gas, the warming from CH
4

emission may offset the cooling
effect of net carbon sequestration in
peat land
s

(Friborg et al. 2003).

The processes underlying CH
4

emissions are complex and depend on several climate
-

and vegetation
-
related variables, such as
inundation, vegetation composition and soil temperature. Many of those controlling factors become
altered f
ollowing anthropogenic intervention in natural
peat land

ecosystems. Peatlands fell under
extensive management already in distant past (O’Sullivan 2007), with the activities ranging today from
drainage and peat harvesting to establishing crop plantations a
nd forests. Complete understanding of
climatic effects of
peat land

management remains a challenging question, although there are reasons
to expect an overall negative effect (Maljanen et al. 2010).



4.2

AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS:
THE ARCTIC OCEAN


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4.2.1
OCEAN,
SEA ICE, AND CLIMATE

CHANGE


The Arctic Ocean occupies a roughly circular basin and covers an area of about 14 x 10
6

km
2
.

The
central Arctic Ocean comprises two major deep basins of more than 3000 m depth: The Canada and
Eurasian basins, separated by the L
omonosov Ridge. In the Eurasian side the continental shelf is wide
with a shallow sea.
The
greatest
inflow

of water to the Arctic Ocean comes from the Atlantic,
carried
by the

Norwegian Current
, which then flows along the Eurasian coast. Inflow from the Pacific Ocean
via the Bering Strait is much less in volume, but the Pacific w
ater is an important heat source for the
surface layers, whereas the warm Atlantic water masses stay deeper
. The
East Greenland Current

is
responsible for most
of the
outflow

of water and sea ice from the Arctic Ocean. Minor water and ice
exchange also takes place via the Nares Strait west of Greenland.
The Arctic Oc
ean is strongly
stratified with less saline and colder water in the uppermost layer, some 50 m thick
. The salinity
effect on density dominates, keeping the stratification stable. The strong stratification is a prerequisite
for the presence of an extensive
sea ice cover in the Arctic. In the pycnocline layer donward of about
50 m, both salinity and temperature increase with depth.


The extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas varies from 15
-
16 million km
2

in
winter/spring to 3
-
6 km
2

in
summer/autumn. The ice cover is not compact, but broken by areas of
open water: cracks, leads, and polynyas. In the inner ice pack, the ice concentration is typically more
than 90% in winter, but even small areas of open water allow a significant release o
f heat and moisture
to the atmosphere. Hence, the
ice concentration is essential for the regional surface heat budget of
the Arctic Ocean and further for the near
-
surface air temperatures

(Lüpkes et al., 2008). The sea ice in
the Arctic is a
mixture of
first
-
year ice

and
multi
-
year ice
, the latter having survived at least one
summer season. This thickness of first
-
year ice is typically 1
-
3 m, whereas the multiyear ice may be up
to 8 m thick. In addition to thermodynamic growth, the ice thickness is stron
gly affected by dynamic
processes: rafting and ridging. The sea ice mass balance of the entire Arctic Ocean is strongly affected
by the ice export, which mostly takes palce through the Fram Strait.


The
thickness, areal extent
and concentration of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have
strongly decreased during the recent decades
. The first significant changes were detected in sea ice
thickness on the basis of submarine observations between 1950s and 1990s (Rothrock
et al., 1999),
whereas the sea ice extent has decreased most rapidly during the latest 30 years, the overall negative
yearly trend being
-
4% per decade during 1979
-
2010 (Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2012). The sea ice
extent has decreased mostly in summer and
autumn. The inter
-
annual variations in winter and spring
are limited by the small size of the Arctic basin. Several processes have contributed to the decline of
Arctic sea ice cover: changes in cloud cover, prevailing wind direction and related atmospheric

heat
transport from the Pacific sector and increased oceanic heat transport via the Bering Strait (see
Stroeve et al. (2012) for a synthesis). In addition, as the ice thickness has decreased, the ice pack has
become increasingly sensitive to wind forcing
and the ice
-
albedo feedback. Challenges remain in the
accurate measurement of sea ice thickness and, to lesser ex
tent, concentration and extent.


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Figure N. Record minimum seaice extent in the
Arctic, as observed in
September 2012 (white
area). The purple line shows the median
September ice extent for 1979
-
2012. Source:
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder,
CO, USA.



Figure N2. Time series of
September
sea ice extent in the Arctic. Source:
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder,
CO, USA.


The Arctic Ocean occupies a roughly circular basin and covers an area of about 14,056,000 km
2

.

The
oceanographic changes in the Arctic

Sea; sea ice coverage, arctic water flows and masses are
teleconnected to global climate and weather dynamics
.
The
Arctic

can
influence

the mid
-
latitude
weather and climate
.

The cold air from Arctic

moves toward the
equator
,
meeting with warmer air

at
latitude 60°N and causing
rain

and
snow
. The warmer and moister atmosphere of ice
-
demised

Arctic
during autumn has been associated with enhanced autumn snow cover in Asia (
ref.
Wash ISAR
-
3). In
general this flow is the
lower portion of the polar cell, the highest (by latitude) of the three principal
circulation cells of the
Earth's atmosphere

each spanning thirty degrees of latitude
.
TEXT_TO_BE_ADDED
climate change aspects; ozone,


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Figure N. Surface currents in the Arctic Ocean:
(1) anticyclonic gyre in the Canada Basin, and (2)
the Transpolar Drift Stream. Red arrows mark
warm Atlantic water masses.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/71/Arctic_
Ocean_circulation_map.svg/512px
-
Arctic_Oce
an_circulation_map.svg.png


The Arctic Ocean

is
ice
-
covered

preventing
ship
traffic

from October to June.

For most of the year,
the sea is covered with ice, but the amount of sea ice has been declining

rapidly.

The predicted
shortening of the ice cover period draws attention to the
capi
ta
lized

natural resources.

The future role
of the natural resources of the Arctic Sea for the global
energy market

will be significant because it may hold 25% or more of the w
orld's undiscovered oil and gas
resources
(
Yenikeyeff & Krysiek 2007)
The Arctic Ocean has a fragile ecosystem sensitive to environmental change.
Phenomenas as

ocean
acidification

and effects on
primary production

(marine
p
hyto and zooplanktons)

are some of the key
areas related to reduction of sea
-
ice in the
Arctic

Ocean.
Ice cover for a major portion of the year
prevents sunlight from penetrating
deep into the water column and thus limits production for several
months. Increased production occurs after the ice melts in the summer months.


4.2.2
ARCTIC MARINE REGION
S



In the Arctic marine regions,
climatic conditions

are
extremely severe
, with major seasonal and
annual changes. For most of the year, the sea is covered with ice, but the amount of sea ice has been
declining rapidly. The
ice
-
cover

varies considerably during the year and inter
-
annually. Ice cover
prevents sunlight from penetr
ating deep into the water column for a major portion of the year and
thus limits primary production for several months. Increased production occurs after the ice melts in
the summer months. The formation and
melting of ice
, which
supplies freshwater and ch
emical
elements
, complicates the thermal, chemical, sedimentological and biological processes. This
ecosystem is uniquely sensitive to environmental change.

The
phytoplankton life cycle

takes place during the short Arctic summer. The main reasons for
inte
rannual differences in the biological seasons are the meteorological, hydrological and glacial
conditions. Zooplankton population size and biomass can vary widely in the summer. An issue of
special importance is the relationship between shelf circulation a
nd nutrient fluxes. Coastal erosion

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and river discharges provide a major source of suspended matter and nutrients. Huge Siberian rivers
(for instance the Kolyma River) bring millions of tons of nutrients into the Sea every year.

Hazardous anthropogenic co
ntaminants

(oil, hydrocarbons, organochlorine compounds, heavy
metals and radionuclides) can be found in snow, ice, seawater, marine organisms and bottom
sediments. The average concentrations of these contaminants are low. The arctic marine ecosystems
are,

however, particularly fragile and sensitive to pollution.

Anthropogenic activities near mineral resource extraction zones, or adjacent to ports or in the
vicinity of small coastal settlements increases the level of pollution in the maritime Arctic region
s.
Furthermore, the
Siberian rivers discharging into the Arctic Ocean

encompass industrial and
agricultural regions located within their catchments. For example, contaminants can be found in the
regions that are a part of the Kolyma and Indigirka river wat
ersheds. The other river catchments may
also contain significant amounts of contaminants. The pollutants can be transported by coastal
currents along the continental shelf. The dissolved pollutants are carried even further, as the river
runoff flows across

the central Arctic basin in the Transpolar Drift Stream. Other issues pertaining to
ecosystem health are endangered marine species such as walruses and whales; the
fragile marine
ecosystem
,
slow to recover

from disruptions or damage; the thinning polar ice pack. For more
information on the environmental distribution of pollutants, on
UV radiation

and on climate change,
see the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA).






Fig. The Lena Delta:
Area


30 000

km2, 75%
-

land, 25%
-

river runoff channels with sand banks, 6
large and hundreds small channels, thousands islands, river runoff
-

511 km3, 58 700 lakes, rising of
high water level
-

8
-
1 m, average temperature: January
-

-
30.5, July
-

+7,7 °С, permafros
t thickness


500
-
600 m, permafrost temperature


-
8
-
11 °С








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4.3

AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS:
ARCTIC AND BOREAL LA
KES


The Norther
n

Pan
Eurasian

region

is characterized by the

thaw lakes
,
which

comprise 90% of the
lakes in the Russian permafrost zone

(
Romanovskii
et al. 2002)
.
The Siberian lakes, which are formed in
melting permafrost as temperatures rise, have long been known to
emit methane.

Latest observation
s

on the
l
akes in the permafrost zone of northern Siberia
indicate that
they
are
belching

out much more
methane into the atmosphere than previously thought.
Rather than being emitted in a constant
stream, 95% of the methane comes from random bubbling in disperse locations.
In coming decades
this could become a more significant factor in global

climate change

(
Walter et al. 2006 Nature)
.

The

Siberian l
akes
situated
in tundra and forest
-
tundra zone a
re

in general

poorly studied
. In
their
natural state they are less productive waters, but their ecosystems are highly sensitive to external
influences. Profuse blooming of cyanobacterias is usually associated with industrial effluents

and
nutrient run
-
off
. The assessment of impact of climate change on the
increasing
of water trophicity,

accompanied by
blooms of cyanobacteria

in Northern Pan Eurasian region
is needed.

W
ater chemistry

in small lakes along a transect from boreal to ar
id

ecoregions in European Russia,

is determined by a combination of physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring both in the
lakes themselves as well as in their catchment areas. In the last century, long
-
range transboundary air
pollution has led to changes in the geochemical cyc
les of S, N, metals and other compounds in many
parts of the world (Schlesinger, 1997;
Vitousek