Discretionary Portfolio Management

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18 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 4 μήνες)

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Slide
1

Ingenious Asset Management

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Discretionary Portfolio Management


Economic Overview

Philip Todd

9th October 2012



Slide
2

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

UK Government Debt

2

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
£ bn

Net Issuance
(£ billion)
Net Debt/GDP%
Source: Debt Management Office

-

Updated as at 02/07/12

Gilt Market


Net Issuance with Projection

Slide
3

Ingenious Asset Management

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US
Gross National Debt as % of GDP

3

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Bush I

1989
-

1993

Clinton

1993
-

2001

Bush II

2001
-

2009

Reagan

1981
-

1989

Obama

2009

-

present day

Source: Office Management and
Budget updated 02/07/2012

Slide
4

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

Norwegian Net “Debt”

-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Norway, General Government Net Debt, % of GDP
Norway, General Government Net Debt % of GDP

Graph Source: Thompson Reuters Datastream, The Economist (*6 Year),

Slide
5

Ingenious Asset Management

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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
UK CPI target (2.0%)
UK CPI (2.5%)
UK
Inflation

5

Source:
Office of National Statistics

Slide
6

Ingenious Asset Management

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GBP/US
D

-

A Poor Store of Value

6

60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
USD
GBP
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BOE Trade Weighted Indices updated

31/08
/2012


Slide
7

Ingenious Asset Management

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Gold versus Sterling

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Number of Gold Troy Ounces per £1000

Source: Thompson Reuters Datastream

Slide
8

Ingenious Asset Management

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Bonds & Equities






Bonds & Equities

Expensive
or Cheap?

Slide
9

Ingenious Asset Management

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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
UKG10YR - Avr (6.09%)
USG10YR - Avr (5.34%)
Source: Bloomberg

*Source: The Economist

UK
& US Government Bond Yield

9

US bond yields last at these levels in

1947


returned
-
1.6% PA next 30 years.*

Slide
10

Ingenious Asset Management

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Source: Thompson Reuters
Datastream

UK Equities


Cheap?

10

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Apr-93
Dec-93
Aug-94
Apr-95
Dec-95
Aug-96
Apr-97
Dec-97
Aug-98
Apr-99
Dec-99
Aug-00
Apr-01
Dec-01
Aug-02
Apr-03
Dec-03
Aug-04
Apr-05
Dec-05
Aug-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Apr-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Apr-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
FTSE All-Share PE Ratio (12.02)
Long-term Average (17.35)
FTSE All
-
Share PE Ratio

Slide
11

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

UK Equities


Cheap?

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Apr-93
Dec-93
Aug-94
Apr-95
Dec-95
Aug-96
Apr-97
Dec-97
Aug-98
Apr-99
Dec-99
Aug-00
Apr-01
Dec-01
Aug-02
Apr-03
Dec-03
Aug-04
Apr-05
Dec-05
Aug-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Apr-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Apr-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
FTSE Yield (3.66)
FTSE Average Yield (3.26)
FTSE All
-
Share Dividend Yield

Source: Thompson Reuters
Datastream

Slide
12

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

US Equities


Cheap?

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mar-93
Nov-93
Jul-94
Mar-95
Nov-95
Jul-96
Mar-97
Nov-97
Jul-98
Mar-99
Nov-99
Jul-00
Mar-01
Nov-01
Jul-02
Mar-03
Nov-03
Jul-04
Mar-05
Nov-05
Jul-06
Mar-07
Nov-07
Jul-08
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
S&P PE Ratio (14.32)
Long-term Average (19.84)
S&P 500 PE Ratio

Source: Thompson Reuters
Datastream

Slide
13

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

US Equities


Cheap?

0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
Apr-93
Dec-93
Aug-94
Apr-95
Dec-95
Aug-96
Apr-97
Dec-97
Aug-98
Apr-99
Dec-99
Aug-00
Apr-01
Dec-01
Aug-02
Apr-03
Dec-03
Aug-04
Apr-05
Dec-05
Aug-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Apr-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Apr-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
S&P 500 Yield (2.25)
S&P 500 Average Yield (1.94)
S&P 500 Dividend Yield

Source: Thompson Reuters
Datastream

Slide
14

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

US Equities


Cyclically adjusted P/E
-

Expensive?

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun-52
Jan-54
Aug-55
Mar-57
Oct-58
May-60
Dec-61
Jul-63
Feb-65
Sep-66
Apr-68
Nov-69
Jun-71
Jan-73
Aug-74
Mar-76
Oct-77
May-79
Dec-80
Jul-82
Feb-84
Sep-85
Apr-87
Nov-88
Jun-90
Jan-92
Aug-93
Mar-95
Oct-96
May-98
Dec-99
Jul-01
Feb-03
Sep-04
Apr-06
Nov-07
Jun-09
Jan-11
Aug-12
Ratio (22.66)
Average (16.43)
S&P
CAPE Ratio

Source: Robert
Shiller

02/07/2012

Slide
15

Ingenious Asset Management

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US Equities


Q (Replacement Cost)
-

Expensive?

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1958
1959
1960
1961
1963
1964
1965
1966
1968
1969
1970
1971
1973
1974
1975
1976
1978
1979
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q/Average 1.3
Average 1.0
Q Ratio

Source: United States Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts


Slide
16

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

Economic Overview
-

Summary

16


Debt Mountains mean economic
growth will remain
anaemic

in
most of the
developed
world


Focus on quality


companies with sustainable dividend growth, overweight Asia Pacific



Interest rates will stay
low


Be aware of likely negative real returns on cash



Inflation will remain high(
er
)


Ensure portfolio contains inflation protection but be aware
US & UK Government Bonds
are expensive



Sterling
and US$ will continue to be

poor
stores
of
value


Ensure some Gold exposure & Norwegian, Swedish & Singaporean Government debt


Slide
17

Ingenious Asset Management

www.ingeniousmedia.co.uk

Important Information

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