Adrian V. Gheorghe C4UC and Old Dominion University Norfolk, Virginia

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21 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 9 μήνες)

103 εμφανίσεις

Adrian V. Gheorghe

C4UC and Old
Dominion University

Norfolk, Virginia


Assisted by Hal Warren






Risk Perception


Black Swan Events


Feral Events



Low Probabilities


High Consequences



The distortion of the Earth's magnetic field
caused by a corona mass ejection (CME) (p, e)

A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar
Activity & Geomagnetic Storms

A rapidly changing geomagnetic field over large regions will
induce Geomagnetically
-
Induced Currents (i.e. GIC a quasi
-
DC
current) to flow in the continental interconnected Electric
Power Grids

Storm causes
Geomagnetic Field


Disturbances from
Electrojet

Current
that
couples
to


Power Systems


Damaged GSU

Geomagnetically

Induced Current (GIC)
flow
has
potential to
cause wide
-
spread catastrophic damage to key
Generator Step
UP (GSU) transformers Causing
Restoration Problems

Salem Nuclear Plant

GSU Transformer

Failure, March ‘89

Increased hum from
magnetostriction


(the
slight change of length
exhibited by a
ferromagnetic object
when magnetized)

Station 3 Gen Transformer 4
HV winding failure

Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5
evidence of overheating

Courtesy Eskom, Makhosi, T., G. Coetzee

Overview of South Africa EHV Transformer Failures
due to Oct
-
Nov 2003 Geomagnetic Storms

Failures linked to Long Duration / Low Intensity GIC Exposure



Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) effects


Generates an Earth
-
surface potential (1
-
10 V/km)


Drives a quasi
-
DC ground current (10
-
100A ~DC)


Duration 2
-
4 hours


High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP)
from nuclear weapon effects are more intense


10X voltage (10
-
100 V/km)


10X current (~1000A ~DC)(0.1 Hz)


10
-
15 minutes/burst




More efficient transmission of electricity


Quicker restoration of electricity after power disturbances
caused by Space Weather, severe storms, earthquakes, and
terrorist attacks, etc.


Reduced operations and management costs for utilities, and
ultimately lower power costs for consumers


Reduced peak demand, which will also help lower electricity
rates


Increased integration of large
-
scale renewable energy systems


Better integration of customer
-
owner power generation
systems, including renewable energy systems


That is, a smarter grid will add resiliency to our electric
power system







Energy
-
Plus
-
Information



Within each company: operations, maintenance…


Along the supply chain


Prosumers

with other stakeholders


Among
prosumers
/companies


For market transactions

E

Energy

Info

E

I


(E)+(I)

support

association

isolation

blending


(E+I)

digitization

T


Information Communications (IC) synonymous term for Information and
Communication Systems (ICS)

NIST Smart Grid Framework



”If you want to hit a country severely you hit
its power and water supplies. Cyber
technology can do this without shooting a
single bullet.”


Isaac Ben
-
Israel

Israeli military scientist, general and
politician, currently the chairman of the
Israeli Space Agency and the National
Council for Research and Development,
both at the Israel Ministry of Science
and Technology




ICS security requirements not always explicit


Standards lagging behind (IEC, ISO 7799)


Vulnerabilities


During whole life
-
cycle: design process, implementation, operation,
maintenance.


ICS security policies and management


Threats:


All on
-
line systems are exposed to malicious actions
(terrorism, organized crime, activists)


Connectiveness
: gate to insider threats


Complexity: human errors, systemic failures


Use of technologies with improper protection (wireless,
internet …)

©2009 A. Gheorghe
All Rights Reserved


“We cannot solve problems by using the
same kind of thinking we used when we
created them.”

Albert Einstein


That is, anyone's knowledge and understanding is limited to his
own experience, training, education, and information sources


Therefore, we must continue the advancement of science and
knowledge, which expands the inventory of possible solutions to
any problem often in COMPLEX ways


9
-
11 terrorist attacks on U.S.


Department of Homeland Security (DHS)


Need for risk assessment and management
tools to protect the nation’s critical
infrastructure


Desire for “spreadsheet” table showing
“risks” for many different “targets” and
many different kinds of “attacks/failures”


28



Agriculture
and Food



Banking and
Finance



Chemical



Commercial
Facilities



Communications



Critical
Manufacturing



Dams



Defense In
dustrial
Base



Emergency
Services



Energy



Government
Facilities



Healthcare and
P
ublic Health



Information
Technology



National
Monuments and
Icons



Nuclear
Reactors,
Materials and
Waste



Postal and
Shipping



Transportation
Systems


Water



29

30


Threats:


weapons of mass destruction (chem/bio/nuke); physical
attack/disruption/failure; cyber
attack/disruption/failure; major accidents;
insider/outsider malevolent attack; natural disasters



System Vulnerabilities:


p
hysical; human; cyber; intellectual; dependencies;
interdependencies



Consequences:


loss
of life; economic loss; environmental degradation;
loss of property; loss of reputation/morale




31


Consists of a suite of interdependent
infrastructure models


Simulates propagation of disruptions across
infrastructures


Enables analysis of consequences in a complex
“system of systems”


Offers risk
-
informed decision support to help
identify investment strategies and other options
to manage risk

Source:
B. Bus
h

32

Source:
B. Bus
h

33

Source:
B. Bus
h

34

Source:
B. Bus
h

35


A non
-
profit and non
-
partisan think tank that:

1) Offers products and services to solve clients’ problems in the area of global change and risk


We provide insight to our constituents in a time of increasing complexity and decreasing understanding


We help our constituents understand the ripple effects of their actions and how specific changes, events, and
phenomena affect them


We do this by building on an existing massive intellectual and financial investment in systems models and
deep data assets, cross
-
connected by a unique software framework


We use these assets in conjunction with an advanced decision
-
making tool and integrated visual analytics
which allows our constituents an intuitive grasp of impact, alternative paths, and implications


2
)
Conducts
independent research in partnership with other scientific organizations


Applied Research in Modeling and Simulation


Research in Global Complexity and Interconnectedness


3)
Provides education and training to raise awareness on


The value
of
wide thinking


Global change and
risks in times
of increasing complexity
and
decreasing understanding


The ripple effects of actions and how specific changes, events, and phenomena affect them


36

37

FOCUS AREAS

SERVICES

AND PRODUCTS

Client Delivery
(business sustainment /
money making activities)


SERVICES


Problem formulation


Team facilitation


Decision support


Solution communication


Investigate of specific Issues


Strategic reviews to Identify formerly
unseen problems on the horizon



Stress tests of strategic plans


Watch services to monitor how these
problems change over time


Facilitation of access to our models & data


Subscription Service to our models and
data


PRODUCTS


Software (new models)


Access to our models & data



Frameworks and approaches


R & D


Model development


Database development


Tool building and development


White papers


Applied research in modeling and
simulation


Research in global complexity and
interconnectedness

Education



(non
-
profit

activities)


Education and awareness for general
public


Executive training


Training modules


Keynote and motivational speeches


C
4
UC team is comprised of a dedicated and accomplished team of individuals that
care about the mission and the consequences of no action.

38

David M
.
Hammond
Chief Operating Officer
W
.
Bradley Holtz
Chief Strategist
Dr
.
John Cummings
Chief Scientist
Silvana Nani
Director of Business
Development
Dr
.
Phares Noel
Constituent
Advocate
Dr
.
David Ullman
Director of Decision
Science
Mike Riddle
Director of Meta
-
Model Architecture
Joseph Juhnke
Director of
Visualization
Dr
.
Miriam Heller
Director of Model
and Data Integrity
Dr
.
Adrian V
.
Gheorghe
Int’l Science Director
Don Richardson
Outreach
Dr
.
Marie
-
Michelle Strah
Grants
Board of Direction

Brad Holtz
,
Chair
Dr
.
Richard H
.
F
.
Jackson
David Hammond
John Voeller
Chuck House
Board of Business Advisors
Dr
.
Oleg Shilovitsky
Dr
.
Marie
-
Michelle Strah
Scott Brinks
Robert Courtland
,
Esq
.
Dana K
.
'
Deke
'
Smith
,
FAIA
Board of Science Advisors
Dr
.
Robert ‘Doc’ Hall
Dr
.
Jim Peerenboom
John Gage
Dick Morley
Dr
.
Richard H
.
F
.
Jackson
Chief Executive Office

Carolyn Castillo
Business Planning
Brian Seitz
Enterprise Architect

Dr. Richard H.F. Jackson,
Chief Executive Officer
Founding Director, FIATECH and former Director,
Manufacturing Engineering, NIST


David M. Hammond,
Chief Operating Officer

Senior Program Manager, US Coast Guard, Co
-
Founder
and Executive Board Member, buildingSMART alliance,
NIBS, and Co
-
Chair, Emerging IT, FFC, Nat’l Academy of
Science


W. Bradley Holtz,
Chief Strategy Officer

co
-
founder & Chief Executive Officer, Cyon Research


Dr. John Cummings,
Chief Scientist

former
Director of R&D, Critical Infrastructure
Protection, Department of Homeland Security


Dr. Adrian V. Gheorghe,
Int’l Science Director

Senior Research Scientist, National Centers of System of
Systems Engineering, and Editor
-
in
-
Chief, International
Journal of Critical Infrastructure


Dr. Miriam Heller,
Dir. of Model and Data Integrity
Founder/Principal of
MHITech
, Systems and Adjunct
Professor, Energy and Climate Program, Johns Hopkins
University,


Dr. Phares Noel,
Constituent Advocate

Adjunct Professor Computer Science, U of Michigan
-
Flint, and former Platform Executive, Advance
Manufacturing Engineering Chrysler Corporation


Dr
. David Ullman,
Director of Decision Science
founder, Robust Decisions


Carolyn Castillo,
Business
Planning

Former
Program Management Specialist, Boeing and
Senior Examiner for the California Council for
Excellence


Joseph Juhnke,
Director of
Visualization

President
& Chief Executive Officer,
Tanagram


Silvana Nani
, Director of Business Development

Serial entrepreneur (domestic and international),
former associate at Booz Allen, former managing
partner at
Domus
-
USA


Don Richardson,
Outreach

former
Senior Director of Global Innovation and PLM,
Microsoft


Mike Riddle,
Director of Meta
-
Model Architecture
author of the software on which AutoCAD was based
(Interact) and co
-
founder, Autodesk


Brian Seitz,
Systems Engineer

former
Chief Process Manager and Architect of IBM’s
marketing process, and former Architecture and
Methodology Senior Technologist, Microsoft

39


Sandia National Labs (MOU)


Argonne National Lab (MOU)


Santa Fe Institute


Stanford University


MIT


Los Alamos National Lab (Pending)


International Partners?




40


Maryland Incorporation Filing [completed]


IRS EIN [completed]


D&B Number [completed]


Establish Bank Account [completed]


501 (c) (3) filing IRS Form 1023 Filing (27mos) [in progress]


Intellectual Property Agreements [in progress]


Web Presence


41

Days
of Abundant Resources
and Falling
Prices Are Over Forever


The
world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has
caused a permanent shift in their
value


We
all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if
we did it
quickly

42


The Globalizing Economy


The Demographics of Discord


The New Players


Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty?


Growing Potential for Conflict


Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges?


Power
-
Sharing in a Multipolar World

43


Three important risks in
focus:


The “macroeconomic imbalances”
nexus


The “illegal economy”
nexus


The “water
-
food
-
energy”
nexus


Five risks to
watch:


Cyber
-
security


Demographic
challenges


Resource
security


Retrenchment from
globalization


Weapons of mass
destruction



44


The changing dynamics of energy
demand and
resource
availability


Climate change and the drive
towards renewable
energy


The risks associated with a new technology
revolution


Risks to energy and transport
infrastructure


Challenges and
risks
for global businesses

45


Establish relationships with “deep silo knowledge” partners


Modeling and analysis


Critical data and datasets


Subject
-
matter experts


Build “internal” expertise


Generalists and consultants


Analysts


Subject
-
matter experts when needed


Operational team


Get started


Solve
some
problems


Write some papers and “thought pieces”


Seek and earn recognition


46

C
4
UC team can leverage
the collective expertise
, knowledge of the
systems and
players,
and
our Vision for a viable future to provide insight to decision makers and
increase awareness and improve education among all audiences !

Focus on


Critical infrastructure
systems


Interdependencies
between coupled
infrastructures


Performance measures
for decision
-
making

47

Types of
Interdependencies

Type of
Failure

Infrastructure
Characteristics

State of
Operatio
n

Context/

Performance

Coupling/

Response

Behavior

Coupled Systems
Framework

(after Rinaldi et al., 2002)


System Dynamics Models

(CIPDSS)


Agent Based Models
(TRANSIMS)


Economic Models


Input
-
Output Economic Models


Computable General Equilibrium


Supply Chain
(
SuperNetworks
)


Probability, Risk & Decision Theoretic Models


Sector Specific Models


Hydrological/Hydraulic Models


Transportation Models


Network flows


(Integrated Transportation) Land Use Models


Continuum Models


Multiscale
,
multiphysics

Models




48


*

*


Building an inventory of modeling tools



Sandia models: transportation, energy, economic, financial, chemical,
agriculture and food, health, or integrated


Attributes: Product Name, Type of Capability, Purpose, Use


17 active + 4 inactive models


2 active Sandia models for use: FASTMAP for situational awareness and
mapping; other is workbench supporting FASTMAP; proprietary data


19 Models can be run by Sandia with caveats


Reference Management System


49

WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM

July 2003
-

M. Heller ©


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SSOs
Allocation to
Preventive
Maintenance
Allocation
to Publi c
Education
Allocation to
Rehabili tation
Subsidies
Allocation
to Relief
Preventive
Rehabili tation
Corrective
Rehabili tation
Average
Annual
Compl aints
Funds
Revenue
Completed
Rehabili tation
Non-I/I
Compl aints
Rain-Induced
I/I
Sanitary
Sewer Inputs
Preventive
Rehabili tation
Unit Costs
Corrective
Rehabili tation
Unit Costs
Rates
Total
Sewer
Inputs
Penalties
Pending
Compl aints
Compl aints
addressed
Illegal / Faulty
Service Connections
Wet Weather
Compl aints
Allocation to
R&D
Technol ogy
Allocation to
Corrective
Maintenance


NSF funded $900K + City of Houston $500K


System Dynamics Model implemented in
PowerSim


26 stocks; 42 flows: 122 auxiliaries, 56 constants and 295 links
representing interactions


Six components: Inputs, Treatment, Relief Options, Finance, Indicators,
User Interface


Model use and evaluation


Scenario analysis varying number of
SSOs
, annual complaints, wastewater
fund behavior


Clarifier option dominated all others in all performance variables


Way ahead:

SimSUWER as foundation for Baltimore City’s SSO problem


Add climate change impacts,
TMDLs

issues, green infrastructure options


Enhance with independencies to capture water
-
energy nexus effects


Engage stakeholders for Robust Decision Making






53

Why run
simulations?

To support making decisions.

But, cant simulation
results give the optimum
solution?

Maybe in your perfect world, but
imperfect models are used to
predict the future

The science that provides the
data to the models is often
uncertain

Some things are not really
modelable

There are many stakeholders

“When you cannot
measure it…your
knowledge is of
meager and
unsatisfactory
kind
” Lord Kelvin


Oh, well, if you
cannot measure,
measure anyhow
”.
Dr. Frank Knight

“Prediction is very
difficult, especially
about the future”.
Niels Bohr

So what if there are
many stakeholders?

They all value different things. These
different value sets must be honored

What does it take to get
stakeholder buy
-
in?

To make the decision “stick”
you need to develop their buy
-
n

The stakeholders each interpret and
believe the results of the simulations in
his/her own context

56

CLIENTS

PARTNERS

(Science Community)

PARTNERS

(Universities &
Organizations)

STAKEHOLDERS
(Strategic Partners)

ORGANIZATIONS

PUBLIC

Non For Profit Activities

Sustaining Activities



58