Medium Term Expenditure Framework

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28 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

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Thailand’s

Medium Term Expenditure Framework

(MTEF)

The Bureau of the Budget

Office of Prime Minister

Royal Thai Government

SPBBS : The Principle


Top
-
down policy
driven


Strategic allocation


Fiscal discipline


Effective budgeting


People oriented


Deconcentration


Management flexibility


Good governance


Financial disclosure

Policy aspects

Management aspects

Good Governance


Elements of SPBBS

Result oriented


Strategic Target


Ministry Target


Output and KPI

Devolution

Medium Term Expenditure
Framework
-

MTEF

Comprehensiveness

Monitoring and Evaluation

Medium Term

Expenditure Framework (MTEF)

cover both top down and bottom up estimates:

Macro fiscal projection


to establish budget ceiling
based on resources (such as taxes, fiscal policy) and
constraints (such as debt, and contingent liabilities), and
stating all economic assumptions

Micro baseline projection


to establish baseline
expenditures based on existing policies at agency level

Prudent Reconciliation process of top
-
down and
bottom
-
up projections

MTEF Process (simplified)

5

New
sectoral

demand for
t+3
(priority/cost)

Updated cost
estimate of
existing
policy/program

Sectoral

Budget
Preparation

Macro
-
economic
forecasting

Fiscal
target

Total
expenditure
setting for
multi
-
years

Sectoral

ceiling
setting for
multi
-
years

Annual
budget
formulation

Assumptions

Results from the
Processing Modules

Expenditure & Revenue

Stock

of Public Debt

Macro
-

Framework

Endogenous
Inputs

Fiscal Sustainability

Assessments

Fiscal Sustainability

Macro Economic Assumption

Source : Bureau of the Budget, Bank of Thailand, NESDB

Indicators

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real GDP growth (%pa)

7
.
0



8
.
0

?
?
??
y
?
?
?
?

?
?
??
y
?
?
?
?

?
?
??
y
?
?
?
?

?
?
??
y
?
?
?
?

Inflation Rate growth (%pa)

3.0



4.0

?
?
5



3
.
5

?
?
5



3
.
5

?
?
5



3
.
5

?
?
5



3
.
5

Import

growth (%pa)

27
.
72

10
.
00

10
.
00

10
.
00

10
.
00

Time deposit rate (%)

0
.
72

0
.
78

0
.
78

0
.
78

0
.
78

Time deposit growth (%pa)

-
9
.
78

0
.
00

0
.
00

0
.
00

0
.
00

Minimum

loan rate

(%)

5
.
93

6
.
00

6
.
00

6
.
00

6
.
00

Loan on private sector (%pa)

6
.
70

5
.
00

5
.
00

5
.
00

5
.
00


Bureau of The Budget

s

strategy measurement

Minimum Investment

Subsidy

External
Borrowing

Internal
Borrowing

Personnal Expenditure

Remaining Budgets

(Fiscal Space)

Loss from

FIDF

SOEs

Government
External
Borrowing

Project/Program
Loan


Revolving
Fund


Local Authority

Fiscal Sustainability Framework

To be accordance
with human
power
improvement

Commitment
Expenditure

Education

Public health

Investment

Social network

Tourism

Infrastructure

The

measurement

of budget

allocation

is essential



Fiscal Sustainability Framework

กู้ใน

เงินอุดหนุน

เงินเดือน
/
ค่าใช้จ่ายบุคลากร

การลงทุนขั้นต ่า

Remaining Budgets


กู้ใน

เงินอุดหนุน

เงินเดือน
/
ค่าใช้จ่ายบุคลากร

การลงทุนขั้นต ่า


Remaining

Budgets


กู้ใน

เงินอุดหนุน

เงินเดือน
/
ค่าใช้จ่ายบุคลากร

การลงทุนขั้นต ่า


Remaining
Budgets



External
Borrowing

Internal
Borrowing

Subsidy and Funds

Personnel Expenditure

Minimum Investment

Remaining Budgets



Public Debt / GDP <
60
%



Debt Service / Budget <
15
%



Balance Budget

Key Figures

Fiscal Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

Revenue Projection


Unit : Millions of Baht



On Budget Basis

1,793,569

1,934,549

2,100,942

2,281,075

Expenditure Projection


Unit : Millions of Baht

Expenditure

1,546,305

1,383,839

1,646,737

1,640,168

1.Current Expenditure

1,153,243

1,170,260

1,199,053

1,219,469

(% of total)

72%

66%

62%

57%

1.1 Personal Exp.

502,658

532,518

564,169

597,719

1.2 Operating Exp.

189,292

189,292

189,292

189,292

1.3 Interest Payment

118,171

112,718

101,378

75,158

1.4 Commitment Exp.

31,823

9,158

3,023

595

1.5 Revolving Fund

146,506

151,812

156,816

161,878

1.6 Transfer and Subsidy

164,793

174,763

184,375

194,826

2. Capital Expenditure

236,905

186,294

183,729

194,317

(% of total)

15%

11%

9%

9%

2.1 Subsidy Local Authority

141,436

158,820

174,659

192,531

2.2 Commitment Exp.

95,469

27,473

9,070

1,786

3.Principle Expenditure

156,157

27,285

263,955

226,382

(% of total)

10%

2%

14%

11%

Fiscal Space
*

247,264

550,710

454,205

640,907

TAX

Indirect Tax

Direct Tax

PIT

PTT

EXCISE

VAT

Import Duty

SBT

CIT

Revenue Module

Domestic
Borrowing


Estimation

Projection

SOEs domestic debt

Govt

domestic debt

Total domestic debt

Domestic Borrowings

External
Borrowing


Sensitivity Analysis on Interest
Rate and Exchange Rate



Query Function



Exchange Rate Converting

External Borrowings






Assume Disbursement Patterns :
ADiPs

22 branch

External Borrowings

Data
-
base

External Debt



Disbursement



Interest Payment


Principle Payment

Health fund

Student Loan

Revolving Fund

Revolving Funds

Universal Health Care

Fiscal Year

2011

2012

2013

2014


Budget Allocation for Health Care
Policy

122,158

130,530

139,429

148,883


Deducted at Government
Procurement

34,658

36,217

37,847

39,550

1)

Expenditure on Salaries of government
Officers, affiliated with the Ministry of
Public Health

32,921

34,403

35,951

37,568

2) Expenditure on Salaries of government
Officers, not affiliated with the Ministry
of Public Health

1,679

1,754

1,833

1,916

3
) Others




118

123

128

134

Budget Allocation for Revolving fund
for Health Care

87,500

94,313

101,582

109,332

Funds

Funds

2011

2012

2013

2014

1

Revolving Fund for Health Care

87,500.16

94,312.53


101,581.73


109,332.25

2

Student Loans Fund

25,407.45

23,901.14


21,636.60


18,947.89

3

Income Contingent Loan Fund

0.00


0.00

0.00


0.00


4

Fund for Farmer Rehabilitation and
Development

2,499.10

2,499.10


2,499.10


2,499.10

5

Fund for Small and Medium Enterprises
Promotion

615.00

615.00


615.00


615.00

6

Fund for Promotion of Social Security

30.00


30.00


30.00


30.00

7

Fund for National Sports Development

250.00


250.00


250.00


250.00

8

Fund for Revitalization of the Disabled

50.00


50.00


50.00


50.00

9

Fund for Senior Citizens

100.00


100.00


100.00


100.00

10

Land Readjustment Fund

60.00


60.00


60.00


60.00

11

Fund for Children Protection

60.00


60.00


60.00


60.00

12

Fund for Restructuring of Agricultural
Production to Improve Competitiveness

100.00


100.00


100.00


100.00

13

Fund for Political Party Development

200.00


200.00


200.00


200.00

14

Fund for Criminal Investigation

500.00

500.00


500.00


500.00

15

Other Funds

17,336.00

17,336.00


17,336.00


17,336.00

Local Authorities

Revenue Sharing

Subsidy from the
Budget

Gov’t

Revenue

L/A Rev

Previously
25.2
%


Government Collected


Self Collected


Local Authority Revenues

Type of Revenues

2011

2012

2013

2014

Revenue collected by Local
Administrative Organization

39,833.59

43,360.15

47,201.05

51,384.32

Revenue from Local Taxes
collected by Government

148,484.76

157,725.38

167,779.16

178,717.68

Revenue sharing from government
Taxes

80,982.21

93,526.31

107,442.80

122,892.69

Revenue from Subsidies and duties
transfer

194,674.34

215,829.45

239,524.61

266,085.22

Total of Local revenues

463,974.89

510,441.29

561,947.61

619,079.92

Commitment Budget

and outyears

Personnel Expenditure

2011

2012

2013

2014

Personnel Expenditure

502,658

532,518

564,169

597,719


-

Wage and Salary

484,611

513,388

543,891

576,224


-

Wage for temporally

1,515

1,606

1,702

1,804


-

Benefit for government employee

16,532

17,524

18,576

19,690

Lessons
Learned

1.
To forecast the
outyear

budget (year
2
-
4
) need
both unit cost and output: lacking of
quantitative indicators make the output
forecast a difficult task.

2.
Understanding of government agencies

3.
The rolling MTEF make the forecast less
important.

4.
Dependence on external economy

5.
Political Stability