end of 2011 status

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21 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 6 μήνες)

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end of 2011 status
Smart Grid developments around the globe:
Throughout 2011 there have been great advancements around the world in Smart Grid regulations and deployment.
As the year draws to a close, KEMA did a series of blog posts covering Smart Grid developments internationally.
We’ve gathered them here in an effort to provide critical insights into how those of us in the Smart Grid community
can reflect on progress to date, and look forward to the steps we must take together in 2012.
We have included a rating system for assessing the state of Smart Grid developments in regions covered in the
following pages. There are three critical factors that can be considered when reviewing the relative progress of
Smart Grid deployments: technology advancement, deployment track record, and policy and regulatory drivers.
Each region is given a rating on a scale of 1 to 5 (with 5 being the highest rating) presented below.
North America
South America
Europe
Asia
Category Technology Development Deployment
Policy & Regulation
Overall Score
3.5
1.5
3.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
4
3.5
2.7
1.8
3.3
2.8
Progress in the Americas
Spotlight: United States
1
Progress in the Americas
Progress in Europe
Progress in Asia
A look ahead: 2012 www.kema.com
ProgreSS i n the Ameri cAS
1
2
3
4
In 2009, when the Obama administration chose to use the American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act to provide more than $4 billion in grant funding for
Smart Grid program demonstrations, many felt that this would not only create
new jobs, but also (re-)position the U.S. as a worldwide leader in deploying grid
modernization. The debate over the success of job creation from this economic
stimulus continues, but it is perhaps more clear that the U.S. has not necessarily
emerged as the leader in the Smart Grid movement, as many expected.
Among others, there are three critical factors that can be considered when
reviewing the relative progress of Smart Grid deployments: technology
advancement, deployment track record, and policy and regulatory drivers. It
is interesting to note how the U.S. fares against other global regions when
positioning its leadership merits.
In the U.S., we could certainly state that we have some key supporting drivers for
grid automation, including more than $9 billion in current grant/privately-funded
projects, which is the highest per-capita energy use in the world. In addition,
strong interests from venture capital and private sector funding and innovation,
as well as predominantly integrated utilities that provide a “systems view” of
Smart Grid are also considered key drivers. Conversely, we do have constraints
from the lack of a national energy policy which limits overall direction and
certainty, relatively limited utility-generated research and development funding
(<0.5 percent of total revenue), incomplete and fully-ratified industry standards,
inconsistent regulatory treatment for cost recovery, growing misperceptions and
distrust by consumers, and growing concerns over cyber security. Therefore, we
could suggest that on a scale of 1 to 5 (with 5 being the highest rating), we
could rate the U.S. in technology development at 3 to 4, in its deployment track
record at 2 to 3, and its policy and regulatory drivers at 2.
The Americas
Spotlight: Brazil
2
Progress in the Americas
Progress in Europe
Progress in Asia
A look ahead: 2012 www.kema.com
the Ameri cAS
1
2
3
4
Turning to South America, where Brazil is mostly leading the charge for Smart
Grid deployment, we find several key assets supporting their efforts. This
includes a strong need to improve reliability and decrease significant system
losses in some areas, strong economic growth that favors access to capital and
system expansion, considerable interest in learning from other countries prior to
launching their own initiatives, and some locations with supportive government-
backed R&D programs to foster demonstrations and pilots. Brazil, specifically,
is also making significant investments as it readies the country to host the
FIFA World Cup (2014) and Olympic games (2016), which will drive further
investments in “clean” technology and Smart Grid.
However, South America does have some barriers to Smart Grid progress,
including low per-capita energy consumption that can reduce consumer interest
and benefits, relatively few pilots or demonstrations yet underway, uncertainty
in regulatory cost recovery in existing tariffs, and a unique distribution grid
topology that dictates automation architecture different from most other
countries. Furthermore, capital investment is still being made in further grid
expansion in some rural areas, as parts of the population do not yet have
access to the power grid. Overall, we could suggest that on a scale of 1 to
5 (again, with 5 being the highest rating), we could rate South America in
technology development at 1 to 2, in its deployment track record at 1 to 2, and
its policy and regulatory drivers at 2 to 3.
Progress in Europe
3
Progress in the Americas
Progress in Europe
Progress in Asia
A look ahead: 2012 www.kema.com
ProgreSS i n eUroPe
1
2
3
4
When viewing the European continent, we find some of the world’s most
favorable policies for driving Smart Grid deployment. The European Union
(EU) has implemented policies on increasing energy efficiency, installing more
renewable energy sources, and reducing green-house gas emissions all by
at least 20 percent by 2020. The EU also has several very large (>5 million
meters) utilities with favorable capital positions, a Third Energy Package policy
that also seeks to automate 80 percent of European electric meters to be
“smart” by 2020, strong advocacy from industry via the European Technology
Platform and the European Electricity Grid Initiative, and some of the world’s
first launches of large-scale, smart metering (but not Smart Grid) deployments.
On the other hand, the decentralized nature of utility markets leads to greater
complexity for achieving Smart Grid benefits and necessitates considerable
sharing of technology demonstration programs for the benefit of all market
participants. Progress is being made in regard to the latter effort. Overall, we
could suggest that on a scale of 1 to 5 (again, with 5 being the highest rating),
we could rate Europe in technology development at 3 to 4, in its deployment
track record at 2 to 3, and its policy and regulatory drivers at 4+.
Progress in Asia
4
Progress in the Americas
Progress in Europe
Progress in Asia
A look ahead: 2012 www.kema.com
ProgreSS i n ASi A
1
2
3
4
Moving further east, while the Asia Pacific (APAC) region is just getting started in
their deployment of Smart Grid, there is strong potential to rapidly reach large-
scale implementation, potentially exceeding any other global region. Driving this
interest is major funding to stimulate advancements in China, Australia, Japan,
Thailand, Singapore, and in South Korea. Some demonstration projects seek to
link intelligent grid technology, smart meters and broadband telecommunications,
but with economies of scale driven by the world’s largest utilities, including
China’s State Grid Corporation with roughly 300 million meters. Asia Pacific
also incorporates the world’s largest natural gas reserves, fueling numerous
distributed generation options, another key driver for Smart Grid development.
However, like other regions of the world, APAC has its challenges, including
strong economic growth that focuses capital investment to address power supply
and grid expansion, or on green-house gas reductions. Often, vast differences
exist between availability and suitability of telecommunications networks in rural
and metropolitan areas. In some APAC countries, future tariff increases will be
limited by regulators and perceptions that quality control may be an issue with
locally produced hardware. In summary, on a scale of 1 to 5, we could rate
APAC in technology development at 3 to 4, in its deployment track record at 1
to 2, and its policy and regulatory drivers at 3 to 4.
Three Smart Grid predictions for 2012
5
Progress in the Americas
Progress in Europe
Progress in Asia
A look ahead: 2012 www.kema.com
A look AheAd: 2012
1
2
3
4
It is often a custom at this time of year for many of us to pause in our
busy schedules, and reflect back on the previous year’s events, trends, and
accomplishments, as well as consider what beholds us in the next 12 months.
With a perspective on current events and trends relative to the energy industry
and its potential impacts to what we may see with Smart Grid progress in 2012,
here are a few predictions on where we should focus in the coming twelve
months.
(1) Data analytics unlock new benefits – With the momentum of having
completed some of the initial smart metering deployments, and further progress in
seeking to complete the first true Smart Grid deployment, some utility managers
will begin to consider additional value creation from the “data deluge.” Recent
advancements have been made in modeling analytics and in redesigning business
processes to accommodate operational data from metering and other T&D sensors
that was not previously available in its current location, format, and frequency.
Prediction: New and improved data analytics applications and tools from industry
suppliers will emerge and facilitate a transition to the next generation of Smart
Grid value creation.
(2) Shift from HAN to BAN – The residential Home Area Networking (HAN)
space is crowded and does not appear to be offering the growth expectations
expected by new inventors and their investors. Witness the dual exits of both
Google and Microsoft and the lack of significant market share by remaining
players in this space. What remains as perhaps a more fertile segment is the
commercial and institutional building market, or Building Area Networks (BAN).
The industry has not yet made enough progress in technology advancement or
standards development to leverage a stock of legacy building control systems,
but this will change and the efforts of OpenADR will facilitate this progress.
6
Progress in the Americas
Progress in Europe
Progress in Asia
A look ahead: 2012 www.kema.com
A look AheAd: 2012
1
2
3
4
Prediction: The 2012 year will bring an increased focus on the commercial
sector with more demonstration projects and product offerings focused on
BANs (especially as the value of demand response increases as a supply option
– read on).
(3) Focus on high-response Demand Response options – In conjunction
with the previous BAN discussion, Smart Grid and the integration of distributed
renewables will further the need for more dynamic load shifting options,
in order to match the increasingly dynamic nature of new power supply options.
This will supplement existing direct load control and time-based pricing options
with Dispatchable Demand Response (in response to control/dispatch signals
from the market or system operator), plus the more complex consumer-
controlled options of Virtual Power Plants (VPP) and consumer-optimized
microgrids. However, this will introduce new complexities to the Smart Grid not
yet widely known or anticipated. Look for more on this subject from KEMA in
the near future.
Prediction: Increased focus on demonstrating DDR and VPP benefits, especially
for ancillary markets, with an even greater need for analytical models to predict
market stability and behavior.
It may be apparent by now that there is a commonality among these three market
dimensions, and the relationship as each one emerges in greater importance.
The role of Smart Grid will not only impact each of these dimensions, but its
progress in industry will be impacted by how well each of these areas is being
addressed in the forefront of new and emerging deployments. For instance, very
few smart metering or Smart Grid program business cases can have a positive
outcome without some degree of quantified demand response benefits, or at
least having a high degree of confidence in achieving operational benefits.
Further developments in these three areas can provide that greater certainty,
perhaps improving the justification in future regulatory proceedings to fund
Smart Grid deployment. What is your view?
Vi si t www.SmartGri dSherpa.com
A free knowledge base and blog providing expert guidance on your
path to the Smart Grid.
www.kema.com
For general inquiries, please contact
our head office in Arnhem, the
Netherlands at +31 26 356 91 11 or
via email at smartgrid@kema.com
To find specific contact information
for your region, please visit
www.kema.com/locations