What is hot and what is not?

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12 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

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February 8
-
10th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

Mobile Channels 2011 & Beyond

What is hot and what is not?

Charles Macleod (Metaflow)

Brett Seyler (Unity)

Oliver Breitfeld (Arvato)

Matt Wood (Amazon)

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

A blatant plug
-

Pocket Gamer
-

The world’s
leading source of games editorial


Over 4 million views from 2 million
visitors per month across web, wap,
iPhone, print


Syndicated editorial on operator and
other portals increases reach further


Bi
-
monthly UK mobile games mag


Sister sites for the industry
(PocketGamer.Biz), French market
(PocketGamer.Fr) and mobile
apps/services (PocketPicks.co.uk)


QualityIndex.com

(metacritic for mobile)


Smartphone Alliance ad netwok


PLUS

PG.Biz Mobile Games Trends
Reports & Consultancy


>> More to come in 2011


February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

3

Your distinguished panel…


Charles Macleod
, CEO, Metaflow


Brett Seyler
, VP Strategy, Unity


Oliver Breitfeld,
Head of Games, Arvato Mobile


Matt Wood
, Technology Evangelist, Amazon Web
Services


The Moderator:

Chris James
, Managing Director, Pocket Gamer

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

4

Platforms: iOS

-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ The most lucrative app store


10 billion apps downloaded


c.$2 billion to developers

+ Large, focused, active audience


c.160 million iOS devices


Average downloads over 10 per person

+ A constantly evolving platform


iOS 4 with 1500 new APIs


iAds + GameCenter

-

The most competitive app store?


C.400,000 apps, c.70K games


Price points driven down (to free?)

-

Other factors


Apple as inconsistent gatekeeper (e.g. Ip ruling)


Fragmentation & piracy

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

5

Platforms: Android
-

Hot

or
Not
?

+ Fasting growing platform


Activating c.300,000 devices per day (Google)


Biggest smartphone iOS in world in Q4 (Canalsys)

+ Growing support from rest of market


Xperia Play + Playstation Suite


Amazon Android store, Exent, etc


Operator portals

+ Improving Platform


File size up to 50Mb, in
-
app payments coming


Store updated recently and returns policy trimmed

-

Still concerns about app store


Still a ‘Half built shopping mall’?


Dominated by free content and dubious IP


Piracy is rife

-

Fragmented platform


Different OS’s+ manufacturers = multiple specs

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

6

Platforms: Windows Phone 7

-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Managed retail platform


App store promotions and premium price points

+ Strong gaming credentials


Xbox Live integration brings existing community


Focus on quality titles and some exclusives


Top 10 paid apps were all games post launch

+ Backed with big budget by Microsoft


Massive promotional campaign


Paying developers to por titles

+ Single
-
spec ‘chassis’


No fragmentation across manufacturers (yet!)

-

Size of market?


1.5 million shipped into retail in first 6 weeks
and c.2.25M overall (but how many sold?)


Will Nokia come aboard?

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

7

Platforms: Symbian
-

Hot

or
Not
?

+ High market penetration


Still the largest OS platform globally (40%)


Massive penetration in emerging markets

+ Ovi store growing


c.4m daily downloads (75% apps)


More than 100 developers passing 1M downloads

(inc Dchoc 4M, Lunaforte 10M and Herocraft 12M)

+ Better capacitive touchscreen devices


N8 and C9 both strong (after frustrating N97)

-

Smartphone market share diminishing


Especially fast in western markets in face of smartphone
competition and never strong in US

-

Fragmented specs and unsure future


A lot of lower
-
end devices, small Symbian^3


Symbian foundation dissolved, Meego?

-

Some concerns over market

-
Symbian foundation dissolved, Meego?


February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

8

Platforms: Blackberry

-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Growing market


Shipped 14.2M smartphones in Q4 (Up 40%yoy)

+ Youthful audience


Very popular with teenagers for communication

+ Comparatively high price points


Higher minimum rate and more premium

-

Do audience care about games?


Is it more about facebook and BM?

-

Do Blackberry care about games?


Few of the showcased ‘super
-
apps are games


Underpowered platform
-

still essentially Java

-

New OS not yet in place


New OS announced but not here


February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

9

Platforms: WebOS

-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Technically great OS


Acclaimed IO and native power for
gaming in Pre and Pixi

+ New handsets coming?


Announcements at MWC next week

-

Small install base

-
C.2M (diff to be sure)

-

What’s happening under HP?


No clear understanding yet of where the
platform will go

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

10

Platforms: Tablets
-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ The new black?


Hailed as future of laptops, magazines, books
and more


c.15M iPads sold in 2010


c.2 million Galaxy Tabs shipped by Xmas

+ They’re used to play games


62% of iPad app downloaders bought games
(Nielsen)


One of central tenants of Honeycomb android
tablet OS is rich gaming

+ Hundreds more hitting the market…


Over 100 tablets announced at CES

-

…all with different specs?


Form factor lottery

-

Is it a fad?


Tablet computing isn’t new and not yet
essential for masses
-

too early to say if this
will really hold up beyond Apple

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

11

Platforms: bada
-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Weight of Samsung behind it


Samsung went big at MWC last year and bada
is a real pet projet


Millions of Wave handsets out and more
coming at competitive price

+ A universal solution?


Plan was to have Bada in handsets, TVs,
fridges, etc

+ Considerable developer support


Regular prizes, extensive dev program

-

Samsung refocusing on Android?


Notably Samsung’s biggest pushes (Galaxy S
and Tab) are Android not bada

-

Mid to low end rather than high end?


Although specs of early devices are good,
whispers seem to suggest bada could become
Samsung’s middle/low
-
end solution

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

12

Platforms: Meego
-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Combined weight of Nokia and Intel


With two tech giants uniting it surely has legs

+ Higher specs promised


Devices should be higher spec than the
average smartphone (and symbian) to provide
more powerful gaming potential

-

Lack of momentum at present?


After a year or so of taking still no device on
the market

-

Intel and Nokia not so united


Big companies also mean big egos and
potential ‘musical differences’

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

13

Platforms: Java/Brew
-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Support from Operator portals


Still a massive audience and trusted brands

+ Higher pricepoints


Operators never did the ‘race to the bottom’

/£5

+ Huge penetration in emerging markets


Smartphone penetration is small in BRIC and java rules

+ Less competition


Less content on the decks generally


Large publisher departure (I
-
play, Glu, Capcom, etc)
means more opportunity and operators are hungry for
content

-

Traffic declining to operator portals


In western markets (UK especially), the operator
powers are weak

-

A sunset market


Ultimately, this isn’t the platform of the future

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

14

Platforms: Netbooks
-

Hot
or
Not
?

+ Intel’s AppUp program offers big audience


Intel are big players offering new market


Potential convergence with mobile (Meego)


-

Will paid for apps succeed vs the free flash/net?


Flash gaming portals and casual games already exist in
abundance via the internet
-

most are free

-

Are Netbooks so last year?


Will tablets increasingly replace netbooks anyway?

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

15

Business Models:
Hot

or
Not
?

i) Paid download


+ Success stories still coming
-

Doodle Jump,
Angry Birds, Flight Control, etc


-

Price points have been driven down in the
prominent stores

ii) Ad
-
funded


+ Working for some
-

Rovio making up
to $1M per month through Ads


-

Vulnerable model and effects
consumer experience?

iii) Freemium


+ Huge growth in last few years and big
profits being made


+ No barrier to entry


-

Is it a bubble
-

will hunger for virtual apps
continue, are there enough ‘whales’?


-

Creative limitations? Design by business
model vs creativity?

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

16

General Trends
-

Hot

or
Not
?

Price Wars


Went crazy at Xmas, EA Dominated the top 10
as a result but is whole industry poorer?

High
-
end console
-
style hardcore games


Infinity Blade, Real Racing 2, Rage, etc

Social Gaming + social features for games


DeNA/ngmoco, Zynga to iPhone, Playphone
Social, Open Feint, Scoreloop etc

High
-
end console
-
style hardcore games


Infinity Blade, Rage, Real Racing 2, etc

Proliferation of app stores


Third party app stores vs operators vs OEMs

February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

17

Hot

or
Not

in 2015….

Charles Macleod

2015 HOT
-

Android devices feeding off Google’s massive investment in personal and
global social networking tools and solutions!

2015 Not hot, Symbian, Meego and Handheld consoles.


Oliver Breitfeld

2015 HOT universal OS


on mobile, tablets, netbooks, TVs and multiple screen
games / Apps downloaded at various market places with flexible licenses.


Matt Wood (Amazon)

TBC




February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

18

Hot

or
Not

in 2015…

Brett Seyler’s view of 2015 (unabridged)


Android will rule (60%+ global market share), but will be even trickier to navigate than desktop PCs are
today from a fragmentation POV.

Middleware will be crucial to targeting this entire platform at reasonable
development costs.


iOS will still be very lucrative for developers and a very interesting part of the market, but will not grow
further than 30% of the global market.


Nearly all other OS platforms will be variants of Android, or built atop Android, but there will be significant
opportunity for OEMs to build value on top of Android, including their own content markets.

The new
fragmentation will be in "app stores" more than operating systems (Amazon, Verizon Vcast, etc.).

The
name of the game there will be billing, accounts (how many customers store credit cards), search,
navigation and discover


WP7 / Meego have an outside chance at significant market share, but I'd guess that they will need
revolutionary advancements to claw marketshare from Android.


Mac App Store will become


the *exclusive* distribution channel for Macs (no independent distribution), making Apple *billions* of
dollars every year.



Freemium and subscription models will rule all software.


Tablets will be a monstrous category for gaming, possibly as large as smartphones.


The ad
-
based model will still be around, but only supplementary to freemium monetization


Handheld "consoles" will be dead.

In their place will be premium content channels from the largest
publishers, including Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft.

Reach prediction: Nintendo will sell a Mario game on a
non
-
Nintendo device.

February 8
-
10th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

Cross
-
platform Mobile Development:
Which Formats, Why Bother and How
You Can Make It Easy On Yourself


Moderator: Chris James


February 8
-
11th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

20

Your illustrious panel…


Charles Macleod
, CEO, Metaflow


Joanne Lacey
, Global Content Director, Zed Group


Dan Keegan,
Director of Business Development,
Open Feint


Julia Palatovska,
Business Development Director,
G5


Eyal Rabinovich
, Co
-
Founder, Mo’ Minis


Alex Caccia
, President, Ideaworks


The Moderator: Chris James
, MD, Steel Media