1.Changes Since Previous Version

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1


Policy
Ideas
for Scenario Development

2/23/2012

1.

Changes Since Previous Version

1.

Added new policies:

81

Fuel price volatility mitigation policies

82

Tribal policies

83

Distributed generation policies

84

Load management standards

85

Decoupling and other regulatory policies

related to DSM


2.

Consolidated “Transmission and reliability” and “Technical standards” policy categories


3.

Renamed “Energy security policies” policy category to “Energy security/independence policies”



4.

Renamed “
Environmental

and Land use
policies
” policy
category to “
Environmental/Cultural
policies




5.

Changed assignment of “
-
” to “0” for
Environmental/Cultural policies

under Scenario 2


6.

Changed assignment of “+” to “0” for In
-
State RPS goal under Scenarios 3 and 4 (Reflected on
Scenario Modeling Parameters

Spreadsheet)


7.

Added Parameter “Distributed
Resource

Goal” to Scenario Modeling Parameters Spreadsheet


8.

Assigned a “+” to the “Distributed Resource Goal” parameter under Scenario 4


2.

Mapping of Policies to Categories
:

A.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) policies

1

GHG
reduction goals

2

Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goals

5

Demand side policies (energy efficiency, conservation, demand response, CHP,
behind
-
the
-
meter PV, storage)

6

Electric vehicles and other fuel switching to electric uses

12

Investment tax
policies

14

Coal phase
-
out

15

Electricity storage requirements (storage portfolio standard)

16

Environmental justice

17

Location of renewables (in
-
state vs. out
-
of
-
state)

2


18

Definition of renewables (BC and NW’s hydro resources)



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B.

Economic policies

12

Investment tax policies

22

Financial market regulations


cost of capital, etc.

23

Economic stimulus

24

In
-
state economic development (local jobs)

29

Federal tax policy

31

Federal fiscal policy

37

Trade policy (China solar panels WTO claim by U.S., etc.)

52

Policies around infrastructure investment/replacement

39

Public sector employment vs. private sector employment

64

Pipeline development



C.

Capital investment support

3

Renewable tax incentives (investment tax credit, production tax credit, accelerated
depreciation, property tax credits, sales tax credits)

12

Investment tax policies

13

Cost recovery policies (pre
-
approval, early recovery of
pre
-
construction expenses)

21

R&D financial support

54

Availability of federal loan guarantees for renewables

64

Pipeline development

73

Nuclear fuel cycle


use of reprocessing



D.

Renewable energy policies

2

Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goals

3

Renewable tax incentives (investment tax credit, production tax credit, accelerated
3


depreciation, property tax credits, sales tax credits)

17

Location of renewables (in
-
state vs. out
-
of
-
state)

18

Definition of renewables (BC and NW’s hydro resources)

5
4

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E.

Transmission policies

13

Cost recovery policies (pre
-
approval, early recovery of pre
-
construction expenses)

26

Technical
standards (e.g. wind ride
-
through, interconnection,
safety)

30

Smart grid (synchrophasors, smart meters, etc.)

32

Use of transmission corridors, NERC policy

33

RTO markets, balancing authority consolidation

34

Transmission siting

36

FERC Order 1000
regional planning requirements, cost allocation

52

Policies around infrastructure investment/replacement

53

Support for DC vs. AC transmission lines

58

Operating reserve requirements, renewable integration
requirements

74

Cyber
-
security, transmission
security

75

Increased grid redundancy

76

Greater cooperation among balancing authorities

77

Energy Imbalance Market

78

Coordination/integration of IRPs with transmission planning

79

Support for increased interconnection among North American
grids



F.

Federal R&D/technology s
upport

2

Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goals

3

Renewable tax incentives (investment tax credit, production tax credit, accelerated
depreciation, property tax credits, sales tax credits)

6

Electric vehicles and other fuel
switching to electric uses

12

Investment tax policies

13

Cost recovery policies (pre
-
approval, early recovery of pre
-
construction expenses)

15

Electricity storage requirements (storage portfolio standard)

4


18

Definition of renewables (BC and NW’s hydro
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G.

Transportation

policies

6

Electric vehicles and other fuel switching to electric uses

8

Clean Air policies (mercury, NOx, SOx)

27

Electric vehicle policy

28

Alternative transportation fuels (biofuels, natural gas vehicles)

42

CAFE standards

72

Gasoline tax policy



H.

Demand
-
side

policies

5

Demand side policies (energy efficiency, conservation, demand response, CHP,
behind
-
the
-
meter PV, storage)

6

Electric vehicles and other fuel switching to electric uses

7

Electric to natural gas fuel
switching (space and water heating)

15

Electricity storage requirements (storage portfolio standard)

25

Distributed resource policies

27

Electric vehicle policy

30

Smart grid (synchrophasors, smart meters, etc.)

43

Appliance energy standards

44

Building energy codes (commercial and residential)

59

Retail rate design

69

Military investment in energy efficiency

83

Distributed generation policies

84

Load management standards

5


85

Decoupling and other regulatory policies related to DSM



I.

Energy
security/independence
policies

2

Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goals

3

Renewable tax incentives (investment tax credit, production tax credit, accelerated
depreciation, property tax credits, sales tax credits)

4

Energy security policy (policy aimed
at reducing dependence on imported energy)

5

Demand side policies (energy efficiency, conservation, demand response, CHP,
behind
-
the
-
meter PV, storage)

6

Electric vehicles and other fuel switching to electric uses

7

Electric to natural gas fuel
switching (space and water heating)

10

Energy export policies (coal, natural gas)

11

Energy import policies (oil, biofuels, etc.)

14

Coal phase
-
out

20

Natural gas fracking policy

25

Distributed resource policies

31

Federal fiscal policy

37

Trade
policy (China solar panels WTO claim by U.S., etc.)

38

Foreign policy (stability in the Middle East, etc.)

47

Nuclear development (incentives, waste storage, security/risk mitigation)

64

Pipeline development

68

Military procurement of renewable energy

69

Military investment in energy efficiency

70

Military investment in fuel efficiency

74

Cyber
-
security, transmission security

75

Increased grid redundancy

79

Support for increased interconnection among North American grids

81

Fuel price volatility
mitigation policies

83

Distributed generation policies



J.

Environmental/
Cultural

policies

8

Clean Air policies (mercury, NOx, SOx)

9

Clean Water Act policies (once
-
through cooling, discharge, ash ponds)

16

Environmental justice

17

Location of
renewables (in
-
state vs. out
-
of
-
state)

19

Land use policies

20

Natural gas fracking policy

32

Use of transmission corridors, NERC policy

34

Transmission siting

35

Generation siting

41

Water use policy (dry vs. wet cooling, use of alternative/degraded

water sources)

6


46

Health impacts of generation, transportation

47

Nuclear development (incentives, waste storage, security/risk mitigation)

50

Endangered species act (salmon, tortoises, kit fox)

51

Hydro
-
retirements, hydro must
-
run & reduction in
capability of hydro resources

55

Wildlife impacts from generation


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K.

Consumer i
ssues

40

Public power, municipalization

45

Consumer protections (transparency, disclosure)

49

Tort reform

13

Cost recovery policies (pre
-
approval, early recovery of pre
-
construction expenses)

59

Retail rate design

81

Fuel price volatility mitigation policies



L.

Fuel

20

Natural gas fracking
policy

64

Pipeline development

65

Offshore drilling (oil and gas)

66

Insurance requirements for drilling

70

Military investment in fuel efficiency

71

Low carbon or bio
-
fuel standards for transportation

72

Gasoline tax policy

81

Fuel price volatility

mitigation policies




7


3.

Policy Category Mapping to WECC Metrics

Policy Category

Primary
Variable

Secondary Variables

Notes

A.

Greenhouse gas policies

GHG cap

GHG price, technology
availability, RPS %, retirements,
existing unit operations, heat
rates,
emissions rates, fuel cost,
DG, DSM, electrification

GHG policies affect many
variables, particularly GHG caps
but also loads and the
composition and operations of
the existing and new fleet

B.

Economic policies

Load growth

In
-
state RPS requirement, cost of
capital

Reflects the effect of “pro
-
growth” policies

C.

Capital investment
support

Cost of capital

Availability of capital, investment
cost multiplier, investment risk
multiplier, existing unit
operations, fixed O&M escalation

Reflects govt. support for
inve
stment of all types

D.

Renewable energy
policies

RPS%

Technology availability,
investment cost multiplier,
capacity factor, on
-
peak capacity
factor, heat rates, emissions
rates,
existing unit operations

Renewables policies affect cost
and penetration of rene
wables,
which in turn affects operations
of existing units

E.

Transmission and
standards

Existing unit
operations

Transfer capability, on
-
peak
capacity factor
, existing unit
operations
, planning reserve
margin

Affects coordinated operations
and planning

of
new
transmission
, ability to
optimally utilize existing and
new facilities

F.

Federal R&D/technology
support

Technology
cost

Technology availability, capacity
factor, on
-
peak capacity factor,
heat rates, emissions rates, fuel
cost, fixed O&M escalation,
variable O&M escalation

R&D support will affect the cost
and availability of new
technologies, which in turn
affects many other variables

G.

Transportation policies

Electrification

Load growth, fuel cost, existing
unit operations

EVs would increase electric
load, while NGVs would
increase use of natural gas

H.

Demand
-
side policies

Load growth

DG, DSM, electrification, load
factor, existing unit operations,

DSM directly affects electric
load growth

I.

Energy
Security/
Independence
policies

Local resource
goal

Tech
nology availability, in
-
state
RPS requirement, DG, DSM,
electrification, retirements,
existing unit op
erations, fuel cost

I
ndicate
s

use of domestic
(North American) resources
including renewables, gas, coal
and electricity to displace
imported oil

J.

Environmental/
C
ultural
policies

Environmental
metrics

Technology availability,
technology cost, retirements,
existing unit operations, fuel cost

Non
-
GHG related policies
including land
and water
protection and air quality

K.

Consumer issues

Cost of capital

D
G, DSM, electrification

Increased consumer protections
may affect cost recovery
policies and cost of capital

L.

Fuel

Fuel cost

Technology availability, heat rate,
existing unit operations,
emissions rates

Policies to increase fuel supply
may reduce prices
and the cost
of existing unit operations

8


4.

Policy Themes

Policy categories

Scenario 1: To Have
and Have Not

Scenario 2: The New
Frontier

Scenario 3:

Mothers
of Invention

Scenario 4:
Renewables to the
Rescue

Notes

Policy theme

High need driven by
economic growth.

Deep, binding GHG
reduction targets in
response to int’l
treaty.

Slow growth leads to
hard choices about
policy goals.

“Low
-
hanging fruit”

investment in clean,
domestic resources.

+ means:

Greenhouse gas
policies

0

++



+

more aggressive reduction targets

Economic policies

+

+

0

0

pro
-
growth policies

Capital investment
support

+

+

0

0

more investment support

Renewable energy
policies

0

+



+

more favorable to renewables

Transmission and
standards

0

+

0

+

more favorable to investment and
coordinated operations

Federal R&D/
technology support

0

+



+

more support

Transportation policies

0

++



+

more support for alt. fuel vehicles
and
transport. choices

Demand
-
side policies

0

++

0

++

more support for demand
-
side
investments

Energy Security
/

Independence

policies

0

0

0

++

more support for domestic
resources

Environmental/
cultural
policies

0

0



+

more protection of
environmental/cultural resources

Consumer issues

0



+

0

more restrictions on cost recovery

Fuel

0





+

++

more support for enhanced
production


Key: ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘



’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral



9


3a
Annotat
ed
Policy Theme Table

Policy categories

Scenario 1: To Have

and Have Not

Scenario 2: The New Frontier

Scenario 3: Mothers of
Invention

Scenario 4: Renewables to
the Rescue

Policy theme

High need driven by economic
growth.

Deep, binding GHG reduction
targets in response to

int’l
treaty.

Slow growth leads to hard
choices about policy goals.

“Low
-
hanging fruit”
investment in clean, domestic
resources.

Greenhouse gas
policies

0

No
new GHG policies, but continued
use of GHG adders in resource
planning

++

Strong new GHG
policies with
aggressive reduction targets



No
new GHG policies and reduced
concern about GHGs in resource
planning relative to today

+

GHG reduction targets, but less
aggressive and with more “outs” thatn
in Scenario 2

Economic policies

+

“Pro
-
growth”
policies may lead to
higher economic growth and electric
loads

+

“Pro
-
growth” policies may lead to
higher economic growth and electric
loads

0

Neutral policies with respect to growth

0

Neutral policies with respect to growth

Capital investment
support

+

“Pro
-
investment” policies may lead to
reduced cost and risk in capital
-
intensive investments

+

“Pro
-
investment” policies may lead to
reduced cost and risk in capital
-
intensive investments

0

Neutral policies with respect to
investment support

0

Neutral
policies with respect to
investment support

Renewable energy
policies

0

No new RPS mandates or incentives,
but no retrenchment from existing
policies

+

Strong policies to support renewables
as carbon
-
free resources



Existing incentives allowed to expire
and current RPS targets are relaxed or
delayed due to concerns about cost

+

Strong policies to support renewables
as clean, secure, domestic resources

Transmission and
standards

0

No major initiatives to increase
transmission investment or
coordinated ope
rations

+

New initiatives to increase
transmission investment and enhance
coordinated operations and planning
as part of GHG reduction plan

0

No major initiatives to increase
transmission investment or
coordinated operations

+

New initiatives to increase
transmission investment and enhance
coordinated operations and planning
to increase use of domestic resources

Federal R&D/
technology support

0

No major federal R&D initiatives

+

Major new federal intiatives to jump
-
start technologies needed to transition

away from fossil energy



Reduced budgets for R&D due to lower
tax revenues and federal spending cuts

+

Major new federal intiatives to
increase our ability to cost
-
effectively
utilize clean, domestic resources

Transportation policies

0

No major initiati
ves to increase use of
alternative fuels

++

Strong policies to increase use of
electric vehicles as GHG reduction
strategy



Reduction of existing efforts to
increase use of alternative fuels

+

Moderate new policies to increase use
of electric and natural
gas vehicles

Demand
-
side policies

0

No major initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and demand response

++

Strong policies to increase use of
energy efficiency as GHG reduction
strategy

0

No major initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and demand re
sponse

++

Strong policies to increase use of
energy efficiency as cost
-
effective,
secure domestic resource

10


Policy categories

Scenario 1: To Have

and Have Not

Scenario 2: The New Frontier

Scenario 3: Mothers of
Invention

Scenario 4: Renewables to
the Rescue

Energy Security
/
Independence

policies

0

No major initiatives to increase use of
domestic energy resources

0

No major initiatives to increase use of

domestic energy resources

0

No major initiatives to increase use of
domestic energy resources

++

Major new initiatives to increase use of
domestic energy resources to reduce
dependence on imported oil

Environmental/
Cultural
policies

0

No major initiative
s to increase or
decrease land
/cultural

protections,
criteria pollutant emissions or water
consumption

0

All
-
out effort to reduce GHG emissions
may require some compromise with
respect to land use and water
consumption policies



Existing emissions reducti
on and land

& cultural
-

protection initiatives are
delayed or weakened due to concerns
about cost

+

Increased focus on land
-
use,
cultural
protections &
water use and emissions
reductions as self
-
interested
investments in clean, domestic
resources

Consumer issues

0

No major initiatives to increase
consumer protections in electric utility
sector



Focus on GHG reductions may require
increased incentives such as equity
adders or early recovery to encourage
capital
-
intensive investments

+

Rollback of
existing incentives for
transmission investments and
increased scrutiny of new investments
by state commissions in order to keep
rates low

0

No major initiatives to increase
consumer protections in electric utility
sector

Fuel

0

No major initiatives to
increase or
decrease ability to extract fuels from
domestic lands or waters





Significant efforts to reduce drilling in
order to reduce GHG emissions

+

New initiatives to increase drilling in an
effort to keep fuel prices down

++

Major new initiatives to

increase
drilling, particularly for gas, in order to
reduce dependence on imported oil


Key: ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘



’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral

11


5.

Questions for the Modeling Group

The questions below capture issue
s

which we think might deserve consideration for modeling in light of
the ideas in the scenarios. We are not sure how the model might capture those issues and thus make
the starting
-
point suggestions below.


Questions for the Modeling Group


Suggested

Exis
ting

Model
Variables


How should we reflect the variables related
to technology innovation*?

Tech type, capacity factor, heat rate fixed
O& M escalation, fuel costs

How should transmission policy be valued?

???

Should the models reflect a scenario that

posits a significantly distributed generation
goal?

Tech type, capacity factor, on peak
capacity factor, variable O&M escalation,
fuel cost, in
-
state RPS requirement

How do we reflect changes in the cost of
investment capital?

Investment cost multiplier
or investment
risk multiplier (difference?)

How can the availability

and cost

of

water
be modeled?

Fixed O&M, Variable O&M

How should we reflect costs of a pure
environmental cost (capture an
externality)?

Green energy premium, fixed O&M

How should we m
odel CO
2
pricing
strategies?

Emissions caps (how do they capture
price?),
CO
2


emissions rate


*Technology innovation consists of three
specific

aspects: (1) Cost; (2) Availability;
and (3) Performance



12


6.

List of Metrics Used

Below is a complete list of all the variables mentioned in Section 2 above. These variables
can be
thought of as potential variables that might be useful to include in the modeling. However, no decision
has been made about which of these variables would
be modeled.

a.

Availability of capital

b.

capacity factor

c.

Cost of capital

d.

Distributed generation goal

e.

DSM

f.

Domestic resource goal

g.

electrification

h.

emissions rates

i.

Environmental
metric(s)

j.

existing unit operations

k.

fixed O&M escalation

l.

fuel cost

m.

GHG cap

n.

GHG price

o.

h
eat rate

p.

In
-
state RPS requirement

q.

investment risk multiplier

r.

load factor

s.

Load growth

t.

Local resource goal

u.

on
-
peak capacity factor

v.

planning reserve margin

w.

retirements

x.

RPS%

y.

Technology availability

z.

Technology cost

aa.

Transfer capability

bb.

variable O&M escalation




13


7.

Complete List of Policies

The following is a list of a comprehensive list of policies, regulations and standards proposed that could
influence the WECC long
-
term transmission plan scenarios. These policies could be implemented by
legislative bodies, regu
latory commissions, standard
-
setting entities, corporate boards, or others.

Policy

1

GHG reduction goals

2

Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goals

3

Renewable tax incentives (investment tax credit, production tax credit, accelerated
depreciation, property tax

credits, sales tax credits)

4

Energy security policy (policy aimed at reducing dependence on imported energy)

5

Demand side policies (energy efficiency, conservation, demand response, CHP, behind
-
the
-
meter PV, storage)

6

Electric vehicles and other fuel switchi
ng to electric uses

7

Electric to natural gas fuel switching (space and water heating)

8

Clean Air policies (mercury, NOx, SOx)

9

Clean Water Act policies (once
-
through cooling, discharge, ash ponds)

10

Energy export policies (coal, natural gas)

11

Energy import polic
ies (oil, biofuels, etc.)

12

Investment tax policies

13

Cost recovery policies (pre
-
approval, early recovery of pre
-
construction expenses)

14

Coal phase
-
out

15

Electricity storage requirements (storage portfolio standard)

16

Environmental justice

17

Location of renewables
(in
-
state vs. out
-
of
-
state)

18

Definition of renewables (BC and NW’s hydro resources)

19

Land use policies

20

Natural gas fracking policy

21

R&D financial support

22

Financial market regulations


cost of capital, etc.

23

Economic stimulus

24

In
-
state economic development (loc
al jobs)

25

Distributed resource policies

26

Technical standards (e.g. wind ride
-
through, interconnection, safety)

27

Electric vehicle policy

28

Alternative transportation fuels (biofuels, natural gas vehicles)

29

Federal tax policy

30

Smart grid (synchrophasors, smart mete
rs, etc.)

31

Federal fiscal policy

32

Use of transmission corridors, NERC policy

33

RTO markets, balancing authority consolidation

14


34

Transmission siting

35

Generation siting

36

FERC Order 1000 regional planning requirements, cost allocation

37

Trade policy (China solar panels

WTO claim by U.S., etc.)

38

Foreign policy (stability in the Middle East, etc.)

39

Public sector employment vs. private sector employment

40

Public power, municipalization

41

Water use policy (dry vs. wet cooling, use of alternative/degraded water sources)

42

CAFE
standards

43

Appliance energy standards

44

Building energy codes (commercial and residential)

45

Consumer protections (transparency, disclosure)

46

Health impacts of generation, transportation

47

Nuclear development (incentives, waste storage, security/risk mitigation)

48

C
arbon capture and sequestration (incentives, waste storage, security/risk mitigation)

49

Tort reform

50

Endangered species act (salmon, tortoises, kit fox)

51

Hydro
-
retirements, hydro must
-
run & reduction in capability of hydro resources

52

Policies around infrastruct
ure investment/replacement

53

Support for DC vs. AC transmission lines

54

Availability of federal loan guarantees for renewables

55

Wildlife impacts from generation


policies

56

Offshore wind/tidal power


R&D funding, availability of federal land for
siting/permitti
ng

57

Carbon tax

58

Operating reserve requirements, renewable integration requirements

59

Retail rate design

60

Corporate policy/values for energy procurement

61

Climate change adaptation: water use

62

Court findings on damages for global climate change

63

Court findings on a
ir and water pollution from coal plants

64

Pipeline development

65

Offshore drilling (oil and gas)

66

Insurance requirements for drilling

67

Clean Energy Standard

68

Military procurement of renewable energy

69

Military investment in energy efficiency

70

Military investment in
fuel efficiency

71

Low carbon or bio
-
fuel standards for transportation

72

Gasoline tax policy

73

Nuclear fuel cycle


use of reprocessing

74

Cyber
-
security, transmission security

15


75

Increased grid redundancy

76

Greater cooperation among balancing authorities

77

Energy Imbalanc
e Market

78

Coordination/integration of IRPs with transmission planning

79

Support for increased interconnection among North American grids

80

Carbon cap and trade

81

Fuel price volatility mitigation policies

82

Tribal policies

83

Distributed generation policies

84

Load manage
ment standards

85

Decoupling and other regulatory policies related to DSM