MDL Scholars Program SMART GRID AFFIRMATIVE

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21 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 6 μήνες)

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MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

1




MDL Scholars Program



SMART GRID

AFFIRMATIVE


Primary Researchers:

Maddie Budny, Rufus King High School

Jessika Jones, Milwaukee High School of the Arts

Moriah Parker, Vincent High School

Jabari Robinson, Rufus King High School

Samantha Srok, Nicolet

High School


Managing Editors:

Bill Altorfer, Milwaukee Debate League

Justice Platt, Nicolet High School



Produced during the 2012 MDL Scholars Program

July 9, 2012


August 1, 2012

Raynor Memorial Library

Marquette University


Special thanks to Mr. Jus
tice Platt, Mr. David Powell, Mr. Dave Denomie and Marquette University,
without whom the MDL Scholars Program wouldn’t be possible.
MDL Scholars Program

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t Grid Affirmative

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Smart Grid Affirmative

Table of Contents



Inherency


Investment: Lack of Investment Prevents Adoption in the Status Quo

2

Standards: Lack of National Standards Prevent Adoption in the Status Quo

5


Consumer Attitudes: Consumer Attitudes Prevent Adoption in the Status Quo

8



Renewable Energy


Status Quo Grid Prevents the Widespread Adoption of Renewable Energy

10


Continued

Emissions Increase Climate Change

12


Climate Change Leads to Extinction

15



Electric Vehicles


Status Quo Grid Prevents Widespread Adoption of EVs

20


EVs are Key to Halt Foreign Oil Dependence

23



Foreign Oil Dependence Impacts

25



Blackouts


Statu
s Quo Grid Leads to Blackouts

29



Blackouts Threaten the Economy

30


Economic Decline Causes War

34



Solvency


General Solvency

35


Smart Grid Solves Renewable Energy

40


Smart Grid Solves Electric Vehicles

50


Smart Grid Key to Economic Growth

52


Smar
t Grid Solves Blackouts

61


USFG Key

62



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Inherency


Investment


Investments Occur Now But More Is Needed

Without Investment, Smart Grid Is Stalled


Coughlin, 2012
(Sierra, “Smart Grid: A Smart Idea For America?”,
http://smartgrid.ieee.org/highlighted
-
papers/493
-
smart
-
grid
-
a
-
smart
-
idea
-
for
-
america
, DA: 21 July
2012, mjb)


The idea of the Smart Grid consists of a collective database of systems and technolog
ies, which aid in efficiently
producing and delivering energy through a collection of networks. One cannot define the Smart Grid as being
just one entity, but rather a collection of technologies, working together to mitigate the problems associated with
tr
aditional electric grid systems. Production, delivery and storage are all various points to address when
researching and testing new Smart Grid technologies. Understanding how these functions work on a plethora of
levels creates an interconnected awareness

of electric grid systems and how they influence a wide variety of
sectors. The idea of the Smart Grid is not just about systematic processes but also delves into an intense
philosophy and reevaluation of society and its intricate processes. As with every
large based system, Smart Grid
technologies have stipulations, which are primarily associated with fiscal resources. Perhaps the downfall for
such a technology rests on the initial financial investment, which has been notorious for being quite large (EPRI
1). According to the Electrical Power Research Institute,
the 2011 projections for Smart Grid technology
investments stand at 338 to 476 billion dollars, a significant rise from the previous 2004 projection of 165
billion dollars.

While the Electrical Powe
r Institute does recognize

that these investments will significantly
lower energy costs for consumers, the growing need for fiscal resources deters the full support for these
energy systems
.

Much of the blame for lack of investment lies on the concept of u
nawareness and general
unknown stipulations surrounding the new idea of Smart Grid technologies. The discussion of Smart Grid
awareness and predictability is often times the center of skepticism, and the risk of such hefty investment plays a
significant ro
le in Smart Grid controversy as expressed in the quote
"Many in the industry are waiting to see
what happens to those who jump in the fire first
.

This explains why so many utilities are engaged in Smart
Grid pilot projects"
(EPRI 2)
.
Because the economic m
arket is so fragile, the willingness to take financial
risk is not extremely common in the business sector.

The benefit of pilot projects results in a calculated risk,
shedding further light on Smart Grid technologies but without the initial investments.


MDL Scholars Program

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Inherency


Investment


Smart Grid Expensive

Deters Investors And Government Funding


Coughlin, 2012
(Sierra, “Smart Grid: A Smart Idea For America?”,
ht
tp://smartgrid.ieee.org/highlighted
-
papers/493
-
smart
-
grid
-
a
-
smart
-
idea
-
for
-
america
, DA: 21 July
2012, mjb)


While the Smart Grid holds much promise in bringing the United States a more efficient and stable
electrical system, the cost of creating such a sy
stem is projected to be incredibly high. While skeptics
acknowledge that current systems are also associated with high financial stakes, the initial investment and
risk of creating newer systems may deter investors and government funding.

According to Marc

Levinson,
the estimated cost of establishing the Smart Grid system will cost several billion dollars. "
Although the
economic stimulus program approved by Congress last year included $4.5 billion to help create the Smart
Grid, the full build
-
out will cost
at least a couple of hundred billion dollars more
"
(Levinson 1).
The money
issued by the government does little for the financial advancement of Smart Grid technologies, and is only
a start to the immense need for additional sponsors and outside investment
sources
.
Levinson continues to
argue that a key problem with investing in the Smart Grid comes from the financial demand that installing and
maintaining new infrastructures has on the economy. Because these technologies are all very new and complex,
there
is little existing infrastructure to support them. The development of such systems is predicted to be high in
cost and may not be viable for every sector of the economy given the current recession. Because much of the
current system adequately distributes
electricity to the majority of the population, understanding the indirect
costs of maintaining this system is often overlooked.

While there is little skepticism of the long
-
term impacts
of the Smart Grid, the initial investment is certainly an issue, and i
s one, which continues to arise in the
debate over Smart Grid development.

MDL Scholars Program

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Inherency


Federal Standards


In the status quo, the lack of federal standards is preventing the widespread adoption of smart
grid technology.


Roth, 2011

(
Bill, President of NCC
T, a consulting firm. He was a previously a Sr. Vice President of PG&E Energy Services,

“The
Challenges of Implementing Smart Grid”, http://www.loglogic.com/blog/?p=38
)


As yet,
Smart Grid

has no single accepted definition, is comprised of many (not always

complementary) technologies, is controversial with regard to consumer privacy, and
has an overall
absence of standardization and regulation
. Additionally, utilities and private energy companies are at
different stages of adoption.
Because the industry is

in such flux, no standards or accepted sets of best
practices have been established, forcing organizations to establish these for themselves



both from an
operations as well as a security perspective
. Though many organizations predict logging and log
man
agement will be key to establishing security within these Smart Grid environments, variations in
technology and a
lack of standards are a hindrance
.
With equipment from many different Smart Grid
vendors, each with its own data format, a lack of standardiza
tion poses a challenge to utilities wishing
to use a log management tool for event alerting and correlation.
“As we start to get into consumer
energy distribution and home area networking, we’re expecting dozens, if not more, of additional
vendors,” says a

security operations lead. “We know that everyone from Google to Microsoft to a half
dozen others will want to jump in on that space.”
Additionally, regulatory standards have not yet been
established for Smart Grid Technology, something that is likely to be
come critically important in the
future as Smart Grid gains momentum.
Our next post gets into how those managing a Smart Grid are
using LogLogic.




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Inherency


Federal Standards



Passing new standards for smart grids takes usually over a year

by trying
to get approval by
different organizations
.



smartgridnews.com 7/13/12

(
from the original article “NIST releases draft guidelines for smart meter upgrade testing”
accessed through http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Technologies_Standards/NIST
-
rel
eases
-
draft
-
guidelines
-
for
-
smart
-
meter
-
upgrade
-
testing
-
4958.html
)


The next generation of smart meters will have computerized operating systems like those in laptops or
mobile devices.
This week, NIST released its first draft guidelines to help utilities t
est their

upgrade
procedures to ensure they conform with the security and functionality requirements of
the National
Electrical Manufacturers Association
(NEMA)

Standard for Smart Grid Upgradeability. NIST and the
Smart Grid Interoperability Panel earlier
determined that the need for upgrade requirements was a high
priority that needed immediate attention. NEMA developed the requirements on a rush schedule. The
draft is a generic set of test criteria that any utility could use to find out if their upgrade p
rocedures
meet the NEMA requirements. "
Companies will be able to tailor these generic test criteria to their own
systems," said Marianne Swanson, senior adviser for Information security at NIST
. "To make it an
effective framework, we made sure that it cont
ains consistent, repeatable tests they can run, producing
documentation that contains adequate, accurate information regardless of the individual system." She
added that use of the test criteria is voluntary, and that NIST will work to improve them as they

receive
comments on the draft. The official comment period for the guidelines is 30 days, although
it expected
that work will continue on the testing framework until the final version is published in April 2013.



MDL Scholars Program

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Inherency


Federal Standards


The Feder
al Energy Regulatory Commission denied approved standards for the smart grid last year.


US Law Watch, 2011
(from the original article “
FERC Declines to Act on Smart Grid Rule, Cites Lack of
Consensus” accessed through
http://www.uslawwatch.com/2011/07/22/environment/ferc
-
declines
-
act
-
smart
-
grid
-
rule
-
cites
-
lack
-
consensus/
)


WASHINGTON, D.C.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decided
not to conduct a rulemaking on
the first group of proposed technical standards for the smart grid, citing a lack of consensus

among electric
utilities, telecommunications companies, and equipment manufacturers.

The commission’s July 19 order (Docket No. RM
11
-
2
-
000) sends the matter back to the Commerce
Department’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which is the lead agency for developing
technical standards for the smart grid.


Under Section 1305(d) of the Energy Independence and Securi
ty Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110
-
140),
FERC is
required to conduct a rulemaking that would apply to the electricity industry and other stakeholders if it is
satisfied that the NIST product has led to “sufficient consensus” on smart grid interoperability standar
ds for the
electricity grid.

The commission finds that there is insufficient consensus
for the five families of standards
under consideration,” the brief eight
-
page order states. George Arnold, the smart grid national coordinator for
NIST, welcomed FERC’s

decision to leave the standard
-
setting process to NIST and industry stakeholders for
now. “
NIST supports the commission’s order
,” Arnold said in response to the FERC decision. “It is consistent
with NIST’s public comments to the commission that it can sen
d appropriate signals to the marketplace by
recommending use of the NIST framework, and that
it would be impractical and unnecessary for the commission
to adopt individual interoperability standards.”
Arnold said the FERC order affirms the validity of the
NIST
process “as the best vehicle for developing standards for the smart grid.” FERC’s order will encourage industry
stakeholders “to actively participate and look to the NIST
-
coordinated process for guidance on smart grid
standards,” Arnold predicted.
The

practical effect will be to place a tremendous importance on the activities of
the Smart Grid Interoperability Panel (SGIP), which consists of government and industry participants and was
set up by NIST to develop a consensus on the hundreds of technical
standards that will be required over the next
several years, one government official said.
The development of the smart grid, which is generally defined as
providing instant two
-
way communication between electricity suppliers and customers, remains a top p
riority of
the Obama administration, which has provided $4.5 billion in stimulus funds for smart grid development over
the next three years. Private investment brings the total to about $11 billion, which has created a sense of
urgency among companies to g
et the technical standards in place…


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Inherency


Consumer Mindsets


Consumer attitudes are preventing utility companies from adopting Smart Grid technologies in
the status quo.


Watson
-
Currie
, February 9, 2010
(Erica Watson
-
Cur
rie

is a member of a

Smart Grid Demonstration
project

partnership between the LADWP and a consortium of top Southern California research institutes including USC,
UCLA, and CalTech/Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The p
roject is intended to “green the grid” by developing, deploying and
testing advanced Smart Grid technologies. It uses USC and UCLA as testing grounds for innovative technologies to prove
the viability of the demonstration technology, and serve as microcosm
s of the entire city. It is currently the only Department
of Energy funded project to have a socio
-
behavioral component. These behavioral studies will generate ongoing
observations, data, and analysis for integration and support of the demand response prog
ram.
Erica Watson
-
Currie holds a
BA in Psychology, MA in Communication Management, and a PhD in Communication Theory. In addition to her work as a
member of the Socio
-
Behavioral team on the Smart Grid Demonstration project, she also consults on customer/em
ployee
satisfaction and marketing
, from the original article, accessed through
http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publis
h/Business_Strategy/Blowback
-
Attack
-
The
-
Smart
-
Grid
-
s
-
Greatest
-
Danger
-
1875.html
) SS


A Department of Energy

report

states: “
The ultimate success of the Smart Grid depends on the e
ffectiveness of
these devices in attracting and motivating large numbers of consumers
.” Yet
the way Smart Grid is described,
implemented, and envisioned as it rolls out to the public may be the very things holding it back.

Are the
government and utilities
creating the very resistance they need to overcome? Our team has been observing
discussions and comments on existing forums to gain a baseline reading of public sentiment. We’ve discovered
most of the resistance centers on the following common themes: Anti
-
Big Business as evil, oppressive, greedy or
abusive Anti
-
ties between business and government Privacy concerns Anti
-
governmental intrusion References to
dystopian science fiction Fear of cost increases
Unfortunate Analogy Shift

Electrical power is moving
from a
water analogy to an information analogy
. For decades, power consumers have accepted physicists’ explanations
(or their electrician’s description) using a common and familiar


thereby comforting


set of vocabulary
matches to an element we lay peopl
e better understood: water. That is,
it travels in

waves

and

flows

through
power lines.
When things work properly,

current

is delivered to a desired point (e.g., one’s toaster, computer, or
hair dryer). Broken, frayed, or improperly insulated cables could

leak

electricity,

flooding

someone with a
nasty

surge

of voltage. Like aqueducts, power lines become blocked or jammed, resulting in none of the
desired

current

getting through.


With Smart Grid’s advent comes a new analogy, slipping into a data model to
d
escribe how it works.

Smart Grid enables electrons to be

routed

past outages or breaks.

It will
have

hubs

and

servers
, and be “intelligent” enough to sense when to use

packet
-
shifting
-
like
abilities

to

bypass

overloaded or impassable
areas, to

route

po
wer to desired locations. This all takes place on
a

network

(data analogy), rather than power coming to us via

conduits

(a water analogy).
Fostering Dystopian
Perceptions

Since most end
-
users just barely understood electricity to begin with, replacing comfo
rtable fluid
analogies and terms with tech
-
savvy Internet
-
speak compounds our confusion. Humans instinctively fear what
we don’t understand. Add terminology suggesting our machines are becoming intelligent (sentient even!),
evokes the opening of Terminator

movies or the Matrix. Labeling the grid as “smart” and suggesting that
electricity travels like data or information, provokes suspicion and alarm about what sort of information it may
carry along with it.

Rather than a one
-
way

stream

like water, power as
data offers two
-
way transmission of
information. This awakens fears of government monitoring. It’s not enough that Homeland Security measures
provoked fears of wire
-
tapping; now it’s the wires themselves doing the snooping and reporting Continuing to
“expl
ain” Smart Grid using analogies which fail to generate end
-
user understanding; using utilities’ rate
structures to reward those who cede control and punish those who refuse; and increasing governmental
regulatory actions will result in fueling these fears,

increasing end
-
users’ opposition and resistance.


MDL Scholars Program

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t Grid Affirmative

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Inherency


Consumer Mindsets


Lack of public awareness is preventing the adoption of Smart Grid technologies in the status quo


Brass, 2010

(
K
ate Brass leads the businesses efforts with respect to defini
ng the ecomagination product portfolio, developing
strategic customer relationships and large energy and conservation demonstration projects. She represents the environmental i
nterests of
the business with respect to national and international government a
ffairs, global research efforts, new technology commercialization,
internal greenhouse gas reduction programs and the impact and implication of carbon regulation on the growth of the business.

Kate
holds a Bachelors degree in Finance and Economics and a Ma
sters in Environmental Management and Policy. She has more than 20
years of experience in sales, marketing, communications and strategic planning.
From the original article “GE: The Greatest Barrier to the
Smart Grid is Perception” accessed through http://g
igaom.com/cleantech/ge
-
the
-
greatest
-
barrier
-
to
-
the
-
smart
-
grid
-
is
-
perception/
)


That’s one way of looking at a recent report
GE Energy

commissioned and
released in March

that surveyed
consumers in the U.S. and Australia to better understand people’s awareness and perceptions of smart meters and
smart grids. We learned a few interesting things:
More than three
-
fourth
s of consumers in the United States (79
percent)

and Australia (72 percent)
are not familiar with the term “smart grid.” Fewer than 10 percent of those
surveyed

in either country
said they have heard of a smart grid

and have a good understanding of what it

is.
Among those who do have an understanding of it, nearly all believe that such a grid would offer them real
benefits. Most know that real
-
time awareness of what’s happening across the entire electrical network would
mean fewer power outages and quicker
power restoration when outages occur. Many understand that, like cell
phones, the smart grid uses time
-
of
-
use based pricing and can save them money by allowing them to choose
when and at what price to use electricity. Overall, they want to know more about
smart grid and how it would
affect them. In short, to know smart grid is to support smart grid.


But even among smart grid acolytes there is disagreement about what are the greatest benefits and challenges of
the technology.
In the U.S., the ability to rely

more on homegrown clean energy sources like wind, solar and
biogas is believed to be the primary benefit of upgrading the electrical network.

In Australia, opinion is more
fractured


with cost savings being the primary benefit
. Fewer than half of America
ns who know about smart
grid think there are challenges to rolling out the technology

while nearly all informed Australians think there are
challenges. A third of smart grid
-
aware Americans believe the biggest challenge is deciding whether to spend tax
dol
lars to upgrade the existing grid or overhaul it completely. In Australia, consumer privacy and security issues
are the biggest barriers. Aside from the cost and privacy concerns,
the survey points out what I think is smart
grid’s biggest challenge of all:

not enough people know about it. Enlightening millions of consumers about smart
grid technology may be a daunting task, but it’s far from impossible.
The survey shows that smart grid
awareness alone seems to have the ability turn bystanders into advocates
. My takeaway? If you believe in smart
grid, spread the word.



MDL Scholars Program

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t Grid Affirmative

10

Renewable Energy


Status Quo Grid Prevents Adoption


Current System No Longer Sustainable

Smart Grid Key To Human Race And Renewable
Energy


Coughlin, 2012
(
Sierra, “Smart Grid: A Smart Idea

For America?”,
http://smartgrid.ieee.org/highlighted
-
papers/493
-
smart
-
grid
-
a
-
smart
-
idea
-
for
-
america
, DA: 21 July 2012, mjb)


The inquisition and analysis
of newer, smarter technologies

is one that is complex, yet

has global ties, and
fuels the concept of investing in a sustainable future
.
Electricity is a vital part of maintaining a successful
society, and has been a concept, which has catalyzed the evoluti
on of society on many levels. Experts argue

traditional electric grid technologies are no longer supporting the demands of a growing population and
an emphasis on investing in newer, more efficient technologies is a key element in ensuring a sustainable
fu
ture for mankind
.

Through the scopes of business, economic, environmental, government and community
research, the question as to whether investing in new technologies is beneficial to American citizens on a fiscal
and ethical level is fully analyzed. By as
king important questions which relate directly to current issues and
trends in the United States, one can assess the viability of new technologies, as well as the current state of
existing electric grid systems
.

While the concept of renewable energy is one

that is commonly accepted, the
resources to produce and use such technologies rely heavily on public and private funding. While one
would assume the definitive answer would be to invest in new technologies, the focal point of such a
question will be based

upon the current economic slump.

Through researching what the United States is
doing as a whole to employ the standards of the Smart Grid concept, one can determine whether such strategies
are beneficial enough to continue investing scarce resources.


MDL Scholars Program

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Re
newable Energy


Status Quo Grid Prevents Adoption


Less federal support is going toward renewable energy in the status quo, which will lead to a slowdown
and lack of renewable energy in the future.

Scanlon
, July 3, 2012
(Bill Scanlon is with the Office of

Public Affairs at the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory, from the original article “Renewable Energy Faces Financing Challenges with End of Federal 1603
Grant Program” accessed through http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/07/renewa
ble
-
energy
-
faces
-
financing
-
challenges
-
with
-
end
-
of
-
federal
-
1603
-
grant
-
program)

WASHINGTON, D.C.
--

The expiration of a federal grant program at the end of 2011 may make it more
difficult and expensive for developers

of certain kinds

of renewable power proje
cts to access private
capital
,

a new report suggests.
That
, in turn,
may lead to fewer projects coming on
-
line
.

"Our interviews with
financial executives active in the renewable energy market suggest that the end of the Section 1603 Program of
the American

Recovery and Reinvestment Act means that financing renewable power projects is about to
become more difficult," said Michael Mendelsohn, an NREL analyst who co
-
wrote the report "
1603 Tre
asury
Grant Expiration: Industry Insight on Financing and Market Implications
," with John Harper of Birch Tree
Capital, LLC. In the United States,

t
he renewable power sector has benefitted from federal tax incentives

and the availability of institutional
-
scale tax equity investors able to use the tax incentives. The incentives
include income tax credits


production tax credits or investment tax credits


that can reduce taxes owed by a
project investor as well as reduced tax obligations resulting from acc
elerated depreciation of project assets.
These tax benefits can represent
a powerful incentive for private investment
,

but realization of these benefits
is hampered by the complexity of monetizing their value, the illiquid nature of the investments and
unc
ertainty about how long tax policies will last. Most renewable energy developers lack sufficient tax
liabilities to benefit directly from the tax incentives
. Instead, the developers have created partnerships and
other financial structures with large financ
ial and other companies that can make use of these incentives. During
the 2008
-
2009 financial crisis, tax equity investors largely withdrew from the renewable energy project
financing market. The number of tax equity investors willing to make new investmen
ts decreased from about 20
to five. "Industry experts told us that tax equity was almost unavailable for all but the largest and highest quality
projects," said co
-
author Harper. In response, Congress enacted the Section 1603 Program. The Section 1603
Prog
ram, which expired December 31, 2011, offered project investors a cash payment equal to and in lieu of the
30 percent federal investment tax credit. The program freed many developers from having to rely on third
-
party
tax equity investors to monetize the t
ax credits. Interviews with industry participants led the authors to conclude
that the Section 1603 Program provided multiple benefits to renewable energy projects, including:

Increased
speed and flexibility of project finance arrangements Lower transactio
n and financing costs Stretched supply of
traditional tax equity


Support for smaller and new
-
to
-
market project developers and projects using innovative
energy technologies, both of which previously found it more difficult to tap tax equity markets Lower d
eveloper
or project cost of capital as a result of the ability to use more debt While impacts associated with the expiration
of the Section 1603 Program are uncertain, the report says industry experts predict renewable power projects
again will have to rel
y more heavily on external tax equity investors to obtain a portion of their financing.
Several potential outcomes: Less
-
established renewable power developers, especially those with smaller
projects, could have more difficulty attracting needed financial
capital and completing their projects. Tax equity
investors are likely to focus on established relationships with proven developers and on larger projects
Development of projects relying on newer or innovative technologies that lack extensive operational t
rack
records may be slowed because many tax equity investors are seen as highly averse to technology risk. Projects
relying on tax equity financing likely will be more expensive to develop because of the transaction costs and
potentially higher yields requ
ired to attract tax equity capital.



MDL Scholars Program

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12

Renewable Energy


Emissions Lead to Global Warming


The best empirical scientific evidence points to the global warming existence because of humans


Cook, 2010

(John, Solar Physics Scientist @ University of Queenslan
d, Adjunct Fellow at the University of
Queensland, “The human fingerprint in global warming”, 29 March 2010,
http://www.skepticalscience.com/human
-
fingerprint
-
in
-
global
-
warming.html , CT)


In science,
there's only one thing better than empirical measureme
nts made in the real world

-

and that is
multiple independent measurements all pointing to the same result.

There are many lines of empirical
evidence that all detect the human fingerprint in global warming:

Confirmation that rising carbon
dioxide level
s are due to human activity comes from analysing the types of carbon found in the air.

The
carbon atom has several different isotopes (eg
-

different number of neutrons). Carbon 12 has 6
neutrons, carbon 13 has 7 neutrons.
Plants have a lower C13/C12 ratio

than in the atmosphere. If rising
atmospheric CO2 comes fossil fuels, the C13/C12 should be falling.

Indeed
this is what is occuring

(Ghosh
2003) and the trend correlates with the trend in global emissions. Further confirmation comes by
measuring oxyge
n levels in the atmosphere.
When fossil fuels are burned, the carbon in the fossil fuels
are joined to oxygen, creating carbon dioxide.

As CO2 increases in the atmosphere, oxygen decreases.

Observations show
oxygen levels are falling at a rate consistent w
ith the burning of fossil fuels
. The
human fingerprint in the increased greenhouse effect
Satellites measure infrared radiation as it escapes
out to space. A comparison between satellite data

from 1970 to 1996
found that less energy is escaping to
space

at the wavelengths that greenhouse gases absorb energy

(Harries 2001). Thus
the paper found
"direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect".

This result has
been confirmed by more recent data from several differe
nt satellites (Griggs 2004, Chen 2007). That
less heat is escaping out to space is confirmed by surface measurements

that find more infrared radiation
returning to earth.
Several studies have found this is due to an increased greenhouse effect

(Philipon
a
2004, Wang 2009). An
analysis of

high resolution
spectral data allows scientists to quantitatively
attribute the increase in downward radiation to each of several greenhouse gases

(Evans 2006).
The
results lead the authors to conclude

that "this
experime
ntal data should effectively end the argument by
skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases in the
atmosphere and global warming
."

MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

13

Renewable Energy


Emissions Lead to Global Warming


The best studie
s prove that global warming is caused by Greenhouse gasses


Cook 10

(John, Solar Physics Scientist @ University of Queensland, “Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming” , 6
-
26
-
10,
http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical
-
evidence
-
for
-
gl
obal
-
warming.htm, CT)


When greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation, the energy

heats the atmosphere which in turn
re
-
radiates
infrared radiation in all directions. Some makes its way back to the earth's surface.

Hence we expect to
find more infrared ra
diation heading downwards.
Surface measurements

from 1973 to 2008
find an increasing trend of
infrared radiation returning to earth
(Wang 2009). A regional study over the central Alps found that downward infrared radiation is
increasing due to the enhanced

greenhouse effect (Philipona 2004). Taking this a step further, an
analysis of high resolution spectral
data allowed scientists to quantitatively attribute the increase in downward radiation to each of
several greenhouse gases

(Evans 2006). The results le
ad the authors to conclude that "this

experimental data should
effectively end the argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection
between greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere and global warming
." The planet is accumul
ating heat
When there is more energy coming in than escaping

back out to space,
our climate accumulates heat
. The
planet's total heat build up can be derived by adding up the heat content from the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice (Murphy 20
09).
Ocean heat
c
ontent was determined down to 3000 metres deep
. Atmospheric heat content was calculated from the surface temperature
record and heat capacity of the troposphere. Land and ice heat content (eg
-

the energy required to melt ice) were also included.



MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

14

Renewa
ble Energy


Emissions Lead to Global Warming


Renewable energy would be able to stop further global warming by 2030.


Renewable Energy World 2007

(from the original article “ASES Report: Renewable Energy Can Curb Global Warming by
2030” accessed through h
ttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2007/02/ases
-
report
-
renewable
-
energy
-
can
-
curb
-
global
-
warming
-
by
-
2030
-
47351)


American Solar Energy Society (ASES) unveiled its

200
-
page landmark

report
,

"Tackling Climate Change in the
U.S.: Potential Car
bon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030
."
The report illustrates
how concentrating solar power (CSP), photovoltaics (PV), wind power, biomass, biofuels, and
geothermal power, combined with energy efficiency measures, ca
n displace approximately 1.2
billion tons of carbon emissions annually by the year 2030
--

the magnitude of reduction that
scientists believe is necessary to prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change.
The
results of these studies show that

renewable energy has the potential to provide approximately 40% of the
U.S. electric energy need projected for 2030

by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). After we reduce the EIA
electricity projection by taking advantage of energy efficiency meas
ures, renewables could provide about 50% of the remaining 2030 U.S.
electric need. In the Executive Summary, editor Charles F. Kutscher, Ph.D, P.E. wrote: For SOLAR 2006, its 35th Annual Nation
al Solar
Energy Conference last July, the American Solar Energy

Society (ASES) chose to address global warming, the most pressing challenge of
our time. Under the theme "Renewable Energy: Key to Climate Recovery," climate experts James Hansen of the National Aeronauti
cs
and Space Administration (NASA), Warren Washingt
on of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Robert Socolow of
Princeton University, and Marty Hoffert of New York University (NYU) described the magnitude of the global warming crisis and

what
is needed to address it. A key feature of the co
nference was a special track of nine invited presentations by experts in energy efficiency
and renewable energy that detailed the potential for these technologies
--

in an aggressive but achievable climate
-
driven scenario
--

to
address the needed U.S. carb
on emissions reductions by the years 2015 and 2030. These presentations covered energy efficiency in
buildings, industry, and transportation, as well as the following renewable technologies: concentrating solar power, photovol
taics, wind,
biomass, biofuels
, and geothermal. Since the conference, these studies were subjected to additional review and were revised for
publication in this special ASES report.

According to

Hansen,
NASA's top climate scientist, we need to limit the
additional average world tempera
ture rise due to greenhouse gases to 1 degree C above the year
-
2000 level. If we fail, we risk entering an

unprecedented warming era that would have disastrous
consequences, including rising sea levels and large
-
scale extinction of species.

Limiting temper
ature rise
means limiting the carbon dioxide (CO2) level in the atmosphere to 450 to 500 parts per million (ppm).

What does this mean for the
United States? Estimates are that

industrialized nations must reduce emissions about 60% to 80% below
today's valu
es by mid
-
century
.

Figure 1 [see report] shows the U.S. reductions that would be needed by 2030 to be on the
right path. Accounting for expected economic growth and associated increases in carbon emissions in a business
-
as
-
usual (BAU) case, in
2030 we must

be displacing between 1,100 and 1,300 million metric tons of carbon per year (MtC/yr). The SOLAR 2006 exercise looked
at energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to determine the potential carbon reduction for each. The authors of t
he
renewable

technology papers were asked to describe the resource, discuss current and expected future costs, and develop supply and
carbon
-
reduction curves for the years 2015 and 2030. The studies focused on the use of renewable energy in the electricity and
transpo
rtation sectors, as these together are responsible for nearly three
-
quarters of U.S. carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Goals for
renewables are often stated in terms of a percentage of national energy. There are uncertainties associated with the values e
stimated in the
papers, and, because these were primarily individual technology studies, there is uncertainty associated with combining them.

The
results strongly suggest
,

however
,
that energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies have the
potential

to provide most, if not all, of the U.S. carbon emissions reductions
that will be needed to help
limit the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to 450 to 500 ppm We hope this work will convince policymakers to serio
usly
consider the contributions o
f energy efficiency and renewable technologies for addressing global warming. Because global warming is an
environmental crisis of enormous magnitude, we cannot afford to wait any longer to drastically reduce carbon emissions. Energ
y
efficiency and renewab
le technologies can begin to be deployed on a large scale today to tackle this critical challenge.


MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

15

Renewable Energy


Global Warming Leads to Extinction


Global warming is anthropogenic and will lead to extinction.


Hsu, 2010

(Dr. Feng, Sr. Vice Presiden
t Systems Engineering & Risk Management Space Energy Group,
“Harnessing the Sun: Embarking on Humanity's Next Giant Leap”, Online Journal of Space Communication,
Winter 2010,
http://spacejournal
.ohio.edu/issue16/hsu.html
, DA: 21 December 2011, mjb)


The evidence of global warming is alarming. The potential for a catastrophic climate change
scenario is dire.
Until recently, I worked at Goddard Space Flight Center, a NASA research center in the fo
refront of space and earth science
research. This Center is engaged in monitoring and analyzing climate changes on a global scale. I received first hand scienti
fic information and data
relating to global warming issues, including the latest dynamics of ice

cap melting and changes that occurred on either pole of our planet. I had the chance
to discuss this research with my Goddard colleagues, who are world leading experts on the subject.I now have no doubt global
temperatures are rising, and
that global warm
ing is a serious problem confronting all of humanity. No matter whether these trends are due to human interference or to the
cosmic
cycling of our solar system, there are two basic facts that are crystal clear: a)

there is overwhelming scientific evidence
showing positive correlations between the level of CO2 concentrations in the earth's atmosphere
with respect to the historical fluctuations of global temperature changes; and b) the
overwhelming majority of the world's scientific community is in agreement
about the risks of a
potential catastrophic global climate change. That is, if we humans continue to ignore this
problem and do nothing, if we continue dumping huge quantities of greenhouse gases into earth's
biosphere, humanity will be at dire risk. As a
technical and technology risk assessment expert, I
could show with confidence that we face orders of magnitude more risk doing nothing to curb
our fossil
-
based energy addictions than we will in making a fundamental shift in our energy
supply. This is becau
se the risks of a
catastrophic anthropogenic climate change can be

potentially
the extinction of human species, a risk that is simply too high for us to take any
chances
. Of course, there will be economic consequences to all societies when we restrict the
burning of fossil fuels in an effort to abate "global warming." What we are talking about are
options and choices between risks. All human activities involve risk taking; we cannot avoid risks
but only make trade
-
offs, hopefully choosing wisel
y.
In this ca
se, there has to be a risk
-
based probabilistic thought process
when it comes to adopting national or international policies in dealing with global warming and energy issues
.
As the measure of risk is a
product of "likelihood" and "consequence," when consequ
ence or risk of a potential human
extinction (due to catastrophic climate change) is to be compared with the potential consequence
or risk of loss of jobs or slowing the growth of economy (due to restriction of fossil
-
based energy
consumption), I believe t
he choice is clear
.

My view is that by making a paradigm shift in the world's energy supply over time
through extensive R&D, technology innovations and increased production of renewable energy, we will create countless new care
ers and jobs and end up
trigg
ering the next level of economic development, the kind of pollution free industrial revolution mankind has never before seen.

The
aggravation and acceleration of a potential anthropogenic catastrophic global climate change
, in
my opinion,
is the number one

risk incurred from our combustion
-
based world economy.

At the
International Energy Conference in Seattle, I showed three pairs of satellite images as evidence that the earth glaciers are
disappearing at an alarming
rate.[2]

Whether this warming trend can
be reversed by human intervention is not clear, but this
uncertainty in risk reduction doesn't justify the human inaction
s
in

adapting policies and
countermeasures on renewable energy development for a sustainable world economy, and for
curbing the likelih
ood of any risk event of anthropogenic catastrophic climate changes.

What is
imperative is that we start to do something in a significant way that has a chance to make a
difference.

MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

16

Renewable Energy


Global Warming Leads to Extinction


Disease


Current
epidemics are being exacerbated by global warming, and will only get worse.


ScienceDaily 2009
(
from the original article “Global Warming Linked To European Viral Epidemic” accessed through
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090115190453.htm
)


An

epidemic of the viral disease nephropathia epidemica (NE) has been linked to increases in the vole
population caused by

hotter summers, milder winters and increased seedcrop production by broadleaf trees.
New research links outbreaks of this rodent
-
borne
disease to
known effects of global warming.
Dr Jan Clement
from the Department of Microbiology & Immunology at Belgium's Rega Institute (University of Leuven)
worked with a team of medical researchers and bioscience
-
engineers to investigate outbreaks of NE

in Belgium.
Dr. Clement founded the Belgian Hantavirus Reference Centre in 1985, and noted that of the 2,200 cases since
then, 828 (37.6%) occurred in just the last three years, 2005
-
2007. The epidemic has been shown to extend to
neighboring countries suc
h as France, Germany, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg. He said, "
This animal
-
borne disease, scarcely known before 1990, has been

increasing in incidence in Belgium with a cyclic pattern,

reaching epidemic proportions since 2005. The fact that the growing c
ombined effect of hotter summer
and autumn seasons is matched by the growth of NE in recent years means this epidemic can be
considered an effect of global warming
". NE is caused by infection with Puumala virus (PUUV), which is
spread by the bank vole, a r
odent common throughout most of Europe. The authors believe that warmer weather
causes increases in the amount of 'mast', plant seeds from oak and beech trees, that forms the voles' staple diet.
This plethora of food results in increases in the vole popula
tion and warm summers raise the chances that people
will visit the forests where the voles live. According to Clement,
"Since 1993, each NE peak has been
preceded by increased autumnal mast formation the year before, resulting in yearly NE numbers
signific
antly higher than those during the mast years themselves"
.
PUUV is a hantavirus, a group of viruses
known to cause hemorrhagic fevers (fevers combined with bleeding disorders). NE is a relatively mild
hemorrhagic fever that causes flu
-
like symptoms often w
ith renal complications, sometimes also with pulmonary
problems, needing Intensive Care treatment, such as acute dialysis and/or mechanical ventilation. In some rare
cases it can, moreover, cause the shock with internal haemorrhaging and death for which th
ese infections are
infamous. Clement said,
"In 1997, more than 9,000 people in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan
contracted the disease, of which 34 cases were fatal".


MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

17

Renewable Energy


Global Warming Leads to Extinction


Disease


Diseases such as
Yellow fever, plague, Lyme disease, and bird flu will become more dangerous
and spread faster with an increase of global warming.


Dell’Amore, 2008

(
from the original article "Deadly Dozen" Diseases Could Stem From Global Warming” accessed through
http://n
ews.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/10/081007
-
climate
-
diseases_2.html
)


A spike in deadly infectious diseases in wildlife and people may be the "most immediate consequence" of
global warming
, according to a new report released today. Dubbed the "deadly do
zen,"
sicknesses such as
Lyme disease, yellow fever, plague, and avian influenza, or bird flu, m
ay skyrocket as global shifts in
temperature and precipitation transform ecosystems. Babesia, cholera, Ebola, intestinal and external
parasites, red tides, Rift

Valley fever, sleeping sickness and tuberculosis round out the list.
An "early
warning system" based on an international wildlife
-
monitoring network may be the only effective defense, said
William Karesh, a report co
-
author and vice president of Global He
alth Programs at the New York
-
based
Wildlife Conservation Society. Observing wildlife could yield crucial signals of potential outbreaks. "Without
the presence of wildlife, we would be clueless about what's going on in the environment," Karesh told a brief
ing
at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) World Conservation Congress in Barcelona."Why
wait until people are sick and dying?" Out of Sync
Of 14,000 known infectious organisms, 600 are shared
between animals and humans. The deadly do
zen were chosen by the conservation society's health experts
as some of the most ominous health threats.
"The reason we want to draw attention to [microbes] is they're
difficult to see, they have devastating effects, and we also don't think about them unti
l it's too late," Karesh said.
Since microbes and wildlife have evolved together over time, animal species have developed adaptations to cope
with the organisms. So disease spikes usually point to something "out of sync with nature," Karesh said. Climate
c
hange has already thrown ecosystems off balance, experts say. For example, bird flu

which can "jump" to
humans, as it did to cause the Spanish flu of 1918

may be worsened by drought. Wild birds that carry the
disease have been seen drinking alongside domes
ticated birds at scarce water sources. Such behavior has created
a "loss of natural boundaries [that] natural hosts have evolved," said Kristine Smith, assistant director of Global
Health Programs for the society.
And as certain regions warm, disease
-
carry
ing parasites such as ticks and
mosquitoes will expand into new territories that are unprepared for the parasites' arrival, the authors
added.
Jeff McNeely, IUCN's chief scientist, said that the "ecology of climate change is receiving inadequate
attention.

"To me, the most important part of climate change is that it's changing the distribution of ecosystems,
and diseases tend to be specific to ecosystems," McNeely told National Geographic News. Warning Systems On
-
the
-
ground monitoring has already been shown

to work, said the Wildlife Conservation Society's Karesh. In
Brazil forest communities that spot primates sick with yellow fever report back to their health agencies, which in
turn start vaccinating for the mosquito
-
borne illness. In the Republic of the C
ongo a group of local hunters has
been trained to pinpoint symptoms of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in animals. The strategy has led to three years
without a single human case in that region, said Karesh. The Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance
also

draws on indigenous knowledge through a system of people in 34 countries, who monitor wild bird
populations for signs of sickness. Of course, other unnatural forces are contributing to the spread of disease,
experts added. For instance, the illegal wildli
fe trade, especially robust in Asia, is bringing people and animals
into closer quarters, said the Wildlife Conservation Society's Smith. The 2002 outbreak of severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS) was traced to civets. The cat
-
size mammal, prized for it
s meat, had ended up in
wildlife markets in China, she said.


MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

18

Renewable Energy


Global Warming Leads to Extinction


Disease


Malaria especially is becoming more deadly and will spread faster and farther.


Malkin, 2008

(
Bonnie Malkin s the Daily Telegrap
h's correspondent for Australia and the Pacific and also works as an assistant
news editor for the foreign desk. Since arriving in Sydney in 2008 she has covered, among other stories, the 2009 Victorian b
ushfires, the
Samoan tsunami and the 2010 Federal El
ection. Before moving to Australia she worked as an online news editor at the Telegraph in
London. From the original article “Global warming 'will cause malaria epidemic in Australia and Pacific Islands'” accessed th
rough
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/e
nvironment/globalwarming/3490944/Global
-
warming
-
will
-
cause
-
malaria
-
epidemic
-
in
-
Australia
-
and
-
Pacific
-
Islands.html
)


Australia and the Pacific Islands are facing epidemics of malaria and dengue fever because of
global warming, a report has claimed.
The tro
pical diseases will spread south from south east Asia as

climate
change allows mosquitoes to travel to parts of the world that used to be too cold for them to
survive
.
Australia has been malaria
-
free since 1962, but research by Lowy Institute, a Sydney
-
bas
ed think tank, estimates that due to
rising temperatures
,
malaria could spread as far south as Gladstone on the mid
-
Queensland coast.

It said
outbreaks of dengue fever could reach Rockhampton, 100 kilometres further north
.
Malaria kills two million people,

mostly children, worldwide each year.

Dengue fever

is also deadly,
c
ausing an estimated 50 to 100
million cases annually and approximately 25,000 deaths. Experts agree that this number is rising
every year.

The report, The Sting of Climate Change: Malaria

and Dengue Fever in Maritime Southeast Asia and the
Pacific Islands, predicts
that in countries where the mosquito
-
borne diseases are already present, the
situation will worsen as temperatures climb.
"
Mosquitoes are very sensitive to changes in climate.
W
armer conditions allow the mosquitoes and the malaria parasite itself to develop and grow
more quickly, while wetter conditions let mosquitoes live longer and breed more prolifically
,"

it
said. "The sting of climate change is an international public health

crisis being felt on Australia's tropical doorstep. It may soon be
pressing on Australia's northern shores as well." Malaria is already a problem in Papua New Guinea's lowlands, but the resear
ch suggests
that as the world warms up mosquitoes will be able
to travel into the country's western highlands, affecting up to another two million
people live. In Fiji, it estimates climate change could also increase the incidence of dengue fever by up to 30 per cent. The

report's author,
Dr Sarah Potter, has called o
n the Australian government to spend money modelling the spread of malaria and dengue fever and tighten
quarantine and screening processes of visitors to northern Australia.


MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

19

Renewable Energy


Global Warming Leads to Extinction


Disease



Disease spread

will cause extinction


Leather
, October 21, 2011

(Tony, “The Inevitable Pandemic”
http://healthmad.com/conditions
-
and
-
diseases/the
-
inevitable
-
pandemic/
, PZ)


You will ha
ve

picture
d
this possible scenario

many times, living i
n
a country where people are suddenly
dropping like flies because of some mystery virus. Hospitals full to overflowing, patients laid out
in corridors, because of lack of room, health services frustrat
ed, because they just can’t cope.
You feel panic

with no way of knowing who will be the next victim, intimate personal contact with anyone the death of you, quite possibly. T
his is
no scene from a movie, or even a daydream, but

UK reality in 1998, when the

worst influenza epidemic in living
memory swept savagely across the country
.
Whilst this was just one epidemic in one country,
how terrifying is the idea that a global pandemic would see this horror story repeated many
times over around the globe, death t
oll numbers in the millions
.
Humanity is outnumbered many
fold by bacteria and viruses, the deadliest of all killers among these microscopic organism
s
.
Death
due to disease is a threat we all live with daily, trusting medical science combat it, but the fac
t is, frighteningly, that

we have yet to
experience the inevitable pandemic that might conceivably push humanity to the edge of
extinction because so many of us become victims
.

Devastating viral diseases are nothing new.

B
ubonic plague
killed almost half a
ll Roman Empire citizens in542AD. Europe lost three quarters of the
population to the Black Death in 1334. One fifth of Londoners succumbed to the 1665 Great
Plague, and Russia was the site of the first official influenza pandemic, in 1729, which quickly
s
pread to Europe and America, at the costs of many thousands of lives
. Another epidemic of so
-
called Russian
flu, originating in 1889 in central Asia spreading rapidly around the world,
European death toll alone 250,000 people. In 1918
so
-
called Spanish Inf
luenza killed 40million people worldwid
e
,

another strain originating Hong Kong in 1969 killed off
700,000, a 1989 UK epidemic killing 29,000. Small numbers, granted, as compared to the world population of seven billion, but

the truth is that,

should a true

world pandemic occur, western governments will of course want to save their own
people first, potentially globally disastrous
. World Health Organisation laboratories worldwide constantly monitor and record new
strains of virus, ensuring drug companies mai
ntain stockpiles against most virulent strains known, maintaining a fighting chance of coping with new
pandemics. They do theoretical models of likely effects of new pandemics, their predictions making chilling reading. Put into

perspective, during a
pande
mic, tanker loads of antiviral agents, which simply do not exist would be needed so prioritizing vaccination recipients would

be inevitable.
Such
a pandemic woul
d
, in UK alone,
be at least 10 times deadlier than previously experienced
, likely number of
dea
d in first two months 72,000 in London alone
.
Any new virus would need a three to six month wait for effective
vaccine, so the devastation on a global scale, flu virus notoriously indifferent to international
borders, would be truly colossal
.

Our knowledge

of history should be pointing the way to prepare for that living nightmare of the next,
inevitable world pandemic.

The microscopic villains of these scenarios have inhabited this planet far longer
than we have, and they too evolve. It would be comforting
to think that humanity was genuinely
ready, though it seems doubtful at best.

MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

20

Renewable Energy


Global Warming Leads to Extinction


Brink


Warming will reach a point of irreversibility within 10 years


Hamilton, 2009

(Clive, prof, royal society of arts,

da: 6
-
29
-
2011, dw: 10
-
21
-
20009, lido)


Most leading climate scientists now believe that 2°C of warming would pose a substantial risk both
because of its direct impacts on climatically sensitive Earth systems and because of the potential to trigger
irrever
sible changes in those systems
. The latter include the disappearance of Arctic summer sea
-
ice, the
melting of the Himalayan
-
Tibetan glaciers and the melting of much of the Greenland ice
-
sheet.19 The
relationship between the amount of warming and certain cl
imate tipping points is shown in Figure 1. Note that
the authors estimate that, as at 2005, the Earth was already committed to 2.4°C of warming above the pre
-
industrial level, irrespective of any actions we now take.20 Even so, James Hansen has declared
th
e goal of
keeping warming at 2°C ‘a recipe for global disaster

.21 He believes

the safe level of CO2 in the
atmosphere is no more than 350 ppm. The current level of CO2 is 385 ppm, rising at around 2 ppm each
year, so that we have already overshot our targ
et and must somehow draw down large volumes of CO2
from the atmosphere.22 Despite these serious doubts, is aiming to limit warming to even 2°C a feasible
goal?
What do we have to do to stop emissions pushing temperatures above this level? Just before the B
ali
climate change conference at the end of 2008 climate scientists released a new assessment arguing that in order
to have a good chance of avoiding the 2°C threshold rich countries must by 2020 reduce their greenhouse
-
gas
emissions by 25
-
40 per cent belo
w 1990 levels.23 The 25 per cent target quickly became entrenched
internationally as the benchmark against which the commitment of rich countries is judged. The fact that aiming
for 25 per cent instead of 40 per cent means developing countries will have to

do a lot more was conveniently
passed over. We have seen that rather than declining, or even growing more slowly, global emissions have been
accelerating over the last decade.
To have any hope of avoiding catastrophe, global emissions must peak
within the

next few years, and certainly no later than 2020, then begin a rapid decline to the point where
all energy generation and industrial processes are completely carbon free. Hansen has put it bluntly:
Decision
-
makers do not appreciate the gravity of the situ
ation. … Continued growth of greenhouse gas
emissions, for just another decade, practically eliminates the possibility of near
-
term return of
atmospheric composition beneath the tipping level for catastrophic effects.

24 Meeting in March 2009 the
world’s l
eading climate scientists reached a similar conclusion: ‘immediate and dramatic emission reductions of
all greenhouse gases are needed if the 2°C guardrail is to be respected’.25 The urgent question we must now ask
ourselves is whether the global community

is capable of cutting emissions at the speed required to avoid the
Earth passing a point of no return beyond which the future will be out of our hands.
It is this irreversibility that
makes global warming not simply unique among environmental problems, bu
t unique among all of the
problems humanity has faced. Beyond a certain point it will not be possible to change our behaviour to
control climate change no matter how resolved we are to do so. If global emissions must reach a peak
within 5
-
10 years then dec
line rapidly until the world’s energy systems are all but decarbonised, are the
institutions of government in the major nations of the world capable of responding in time?

Are
international institutions capable of agreeing on a global plan adequate to the
task? These are questions on which
climate scientists have little useful to say; they are in the domain of political and behavioural scientists.
However, confidence in the ability of humans to respond with the required urgency is dashed when we
understand
fully how near we are to the point of no return.


MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

21

Electric Vehicles


SQ Grid Prevents the Adoption of EVs



The current grid prevents the adoption of widespread electric vehicles


electricity demand will overwhelm the
system.


CBS News, May 13, 2012

[“W
ill Electric Cars Save the Smart Grid?”,
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301
-
504466_162
-
20004934
-
504466.html]


What will happen if consumers in a particular geographic area

like Berkeley, California and Marin County
flock to electric
cars
--

and area utilities hav
en't really prepared for the exigencies of mass smart charging
?

"
Fireworks
,"
said
Andres Carvallo, chief strategy officer at Grid Net
. Transformers could blow and start

fires all over town.
The ability to maintain power at hospitals and other mission
-
critical facilities could be imperiled.

That's good news, in a roundabout way. In the past few months, consumers have let utilities know what they think of their
plans to em
bed two
-
way communications into the grid to control air conditioners and other equipment in homes and offices
to curb power.



MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

22

Electric Vehicles


SQ Grid Prevents the Adoption of EVs


Until a smart grid is implemented, widespread adoption of electric ve
hicles will be impossible.


CBS News, May 13, 2012

[“Will Electric Cars Save the Smart Grid?”,
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301
-
504466_162
-
20004934
-
504466.html]


This brings me back to cars.
Consumers love electric cars
. Along with green architecture, it's one
of the two segments of the
market that inspire lust, envy
--

and likely
--

compulsive spending. It's a whole new driving experience that's far more
engaging than a gas car.


Nissan has already booked over 10,000 reservations for
the Leaf

and it will only make 50,000 in the first year of production.
The car won't even enter production until September. Fisker has booked over 1,400 reservations for i
ts $90,000 plug
-
in
Karma. Even Aptera, which makes a three
-
wheeled car struggling to get to production, has a waiting list.



Recently, I drove an all
-
electric Ford Focus. Strangers pointed and took pictures. I felt like the Man from the Future
heralding t
he new era of rental cars. If only I had worn the silver skin suit. Forget high battery prices and range anxiety for a
moment:
electrics are the Volkswagen Bug of our time
.

When utilities explain that electric cars can't take off without smart charging, th
e objections will melt away
.
Utilities will
even be able to tout that they are building U.S. jobs
.
Petroleum comes from Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Canada. Electricity
comes from Sandusky, Ohio.


MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

23

Electric Vehicles


EVs are Key to Halt Foreign Oil Dependence

EVs are the lynchpin to confronting oil dependence

electricity is the most diverse, domestic,
stable, and scalable energy supply


Smith, 2010
-

FedEx CEO/Member of Electrification Coalition (
Frederick,
February 23, Hearing
Before a Subcommittee on the
Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate, “Opportunities and
Challenges Presented in Increasing the Number of Electric Vehicles in the Light Duty Automotive
Sector,”

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG
-
111shrg56643/pdf/CHRG
-
111shrg56643.pdf
, p. 18
-
20)



There is a solution.
The lynchpin of any plan that is serious about confronting oil dependence must be a
transportation system that today is almost entirely de
-

p
endent on petroleum. The solution can be found in
something that nearly every single one of you has either on your belt or on the table in front of you. The lithium
ion batteries that power our cell phones and laptop computers can one day form the nucleus
of an electrified
transportation sector that is powered by a wide variety of domestic sources
: natural gas, nuclear, coal,
hydroelectric, wind, solar, and geo
-

thermal. No one fuel source

or producer

would be able to hold our
transportation system and our
economy hostage the way a single nation can disrupt the flow of petroleum today.
Electricity represents a diverse, domestic, stable, fundamentally scalable energy supply whose fuel inputs are
almost completely free of oil. It would have clear and widesprea
d advantages over the current petroleum
-
based
system:

Electricity is Diverse and Domestic.

Electricity is generated from a diverse set of largely domestic
fuels
. Among those fuels, the role of petroleum is negligible. In fact, just 1 percent of power gene
rated in the
United States in 2008 was de
-

rived from petroleum.
An electricity
-
powered transportation system, therefore, is
one in which an interruption of the supply of one fuel can be made up for by others.

This ability to use different
fuels as a sourc
e

of power would increase the flexibility of an electrified light
-
duty vehicle fleet.
As our national
goals and resources change over time, we can shift transportation fuels without having to overhaul our
transportation fleet again. In short, an electrifie
d transport system would give us back the reins, offering much
greater control over the fuels we use to support the transportation sector of our economy. Moreover
,
while oil
supplies are subject to a wide range of geopolitical risks, the fuels that we use
to generate electricity are
generally sourced domestically. All renewable energy is generated using domestic resources.

We are a net
exporter of coal, which fuels about one
-
half of our electricity. Although we currently import approxi
-

mately 16
percent of

the natural gas we consume, more than 90 percent of those imports were from North American
sources (Canada and Mexico) in 2008. And in fact, recent advancements in the recovery of natural gas resources
from un
-

conventional reservoirs like shale gas, coal

bed methane, and tight gas sands have led to wide
consensus that our domestic undiscovered technically recover
-

able reserves are well in excess of 1,000 trillion
cubic feet. We do import a sub
-

stantial portion of the uranium we use for civilian nuclear
power reactors. Forty
-
two percent of those imports, however, are from Canada and Australia.

Electricity Prices are Stable.

Electricity prices are significantly less volatile than oil or gasoline prices
.
Over the past 25 years, electricity
prices have rise
n steadily but slowly. Since 1983, the average retail price of electricity delivered in the United
States has risen by an average of less than 2 percent per year in nominal terms, and has actually fallen in real
terms. Moreover, prices have risen by more t
han 5 percent per year only three times in that time period. This
price stability, which is in sharp contrast to the price volatility of oil or gasoline, exists for at least two reasons.
First
,
the retail price of electricity reflects a wide range of costs
, only a small portion of which arise from the
underlying cost of the fuel. The remaining costs are largely fixed
.
In most instances, the cost of fuel represents a
smaller percentage of the overall cost of delivered electricity than the cost of crude oil r
epresents as a percentage
of the cost of retail gaso
-

line. Second, although real
-
time electricity prices are volatile (sometimes highly
volatile on an hour
-
to
-
hour or day
-
to
-
day basis), they are nevertheless relatively stable over the medium and long
term
. Therefore, in setting retail rates, utili
-

ties or power marketers use formulas that will allow them to recover
their costs, including the occasionally high real
-
time prices for electricity, but which effec
-

tively isolate the
retail consumer from the ho
ur
-
to
-
hour and day
-
to
-
day volatility of the real
-
time power markets. By isolating the
consumer from the price vola
-

tility of the underlying fuel costs, electric utilities would be providing to drivers

MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

24

Electric Vehicles


EVs are Key to Halt Foreign Oil
Dependence


[Smith continues…no text omitted]


of GEVs the very stability that oil companies cannot provide to consumers of gasoline. The Power Sector has
Substantial Spare Capacity.

Because large
-
scale storage of electricity has historically been impracti
cal, the
U.S. electric power sector is effectively designed as an ‘‘on
-
demand system.’’ In practical terms, this has meant
that the system is constructed to be able to meet peak demand from ex
-

isting generation sources at any time.
However, throughout mos
t of a 24
-
hour day

particularly at night

consumers require significantly less
electricity than the system is capable of delivering. Therefore
,
the U.S. electric power sector has substantial spare
capacity that could be used to power electric vehicles witho
ut constructing additional power generation facilities,
assuming charging patterns were appropriately managed.

The Network of Infrastructure Already Exists.

Unlike many proposed alter
-

natives to petroleum
-
based fuels, the Nation already has a ubiquitous
network of
electricity infrastructure. No doubt, electrification will require the deploy
-

ment of charging infrastructure,
additional functionality, and increased invest
-

ment in grid reliability, but the power sector’s infrastructural
backbone

gen
-

eratio
n, transmission, and distribution

is already in place.



MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

25

Electric Vehicles


EVs are Key to Halt Foreign Oil Dependence


Adoption of electric vehicles is key to reduce dependence on foreign oil

Science Daily, September 28, 2010

[“Electric Cars Hold Great
er Promise for Reducing Emissions and
Lowering US Oil Imports, Study Finds,” http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100927131718.htm]



Electric cars hold greater promise for reducing emissions and lowering U.S. oil imports than a national renewable
portfolio
standard
, according to research conducted by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy.

This assessment is among several contained in a new major policy study the Baker Institute Energy Forum will release at a
Sept. 27
-
28 conference tit
led "Energy Market Consequences of an Emerging U.S. Carbon Management Policy." The study
comprises several academic working papers on a variety of topics, such as carbon pricing, the wind industry, global U.S.
carbon and energy strategies, and renewable en
ergy R&D.


"
As the country moves forward to deliberate on energy and climate policy
," the executive summary states, "
consideration
must be given to what policies would best accomplish the stated goals for U.S. policy


a reduction in the need for
imported

oil and in greenhouse gas emissions
." The papers released at the conference seek to "clarify and debunk common
myths that currently plague the U.S. energy
-

and climate
-
policy debate."


For instance, the Baker Institute analysis found "
the single most effe
ctive way to reduce U.S. oil demand and foreign
imports would be an aggressive campaign to launch electric vehicles into the automotive fleet
." In fact, mandating that 30
percent of all vehicles be electric by 2050 would both reduce U.S. oil use by 2.5 mil
lion barrels a day beyond the 3 million
barrels
-
per
-
day savings already expected from new corporate average fuel efficiency standards, and also cut emissions by 7
percent, while the proposed national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) would cut them by onl
y 4 percent over the same
time.


Moreover, the researchers found that "business
-
as
-
usual market
-
related trends might propel the United States toward greater
oil and natural gas self
-
sufficiency over the next 20 years while scenarios specifically focused on

strict carbon caps and
pricing

or a high carbon tax of $60 a tonne or more could lead to a significant increase in U.S. reliance on oil imports
between now and 2025.

A carbon tax of $30 a tonne would also increase U.S. dependence on imports of foreign liq
uefied
natural gas (LNG) by 2025."



MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

26

Electric Vehicles


Foreign Oil Dependence Impacts


Oil dependence on foreign oil puts U.S. national security at risk


Duetch and Sxhlesinger et. al, October 2006

[Dr. James R.,
Chair of the Task Force, Senior Adviser

at Lehman Brothers, consultant to the U.S. Department of Defense, a member of the Defense Policy
Board, member of the Arms Control Nonproliferation Advisory Board of the Department of State, and
a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council. Dr. Schl
esinger formerly served as Secretary of
Defense and was the nation’s first Secretary of Energy and John, Chair of the Task Force, is an Institute
Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).. former Undersecretary of Energy,
Deputy Secreta
ry of Defense, and Director of Central Intelligence.

Council on Foreign Relations,
“National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency”, p.18


The lack of sustained attention to energy issues is undercutting U.S. foreign policy and U.S. national
securit
y
.
Major energy suppliers


from Russia to Iran to Venezuela

have been increasingly able and
willing to use their energy resources to pursue their strategic and political objectives. Major energy
consumers

notably the United States
, but other countries as w
ell

are finding that their growing
dependence on imported energy increases their strategic vulnerability and constrains their ability to
pursue a broad range of foreign policy and national security objectives. Dependence also puts the
United States into in
creasing competition with other importing countries
,
notably with today’s rapidly
growing emerging economies of China and India
.
At best, these trends will challenge U.S. foreign
policy; at worst, they will seriously strain relations between the United Sta
tes and these countries.

MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

27

Electric Vehicles


Foreign Oil Dependence Impacts



Oil dependency hurts the U.S. military and foreign policy goals
---

that escalates to great power
conflict


Crawford, 2010

(Colin, J.D., Wake Forest University School of Law, “
Green Warfare: An American
Grand Strategy for the 21st Century”, Wake Forest Journal of Business and Intellectual Property Law,
p. Lexis)


[*248] In addition to the potential for economic growth, even the most ardent climate change skeptics
will concede t
hat
the United States' dependence on fossil fuels has implications for national security
and foreign policy
. Security analysts have made the case for framing this debate in terms of "natural
security," as the scarcity of natural resources will inevitably a
ffect the United States' foreign policy
calculus for years to come. n24 Despite the fact that the U.S. imports most of its oil from Canada and
Latin America n25
-

not the Middle East
-

many emerging markets are just beginning their love affair
with the sti
cky, black hydrocarbon
. n26
The corresponding increase in demand from emerging
economies will continue to drive up energy prices, necessitating importation of oil from countries with
less friendly dispositions toward the United States
. n27
It is important
to note how energy policy
intersects with virtually all other aspects of governance. Not only will increased prices constrain U.S.
fiscal policy and make it more expensive to project American power around the globe, they create
pressures that will heavily
influence American foreign policy in the coming decades
,
whether through
resource wars or climate
-
induced humanitarian crises
. n28
International trade and maritime policy in
particular will be

[*249]
greatly affected. Because "90 percent of global commerce

and two thirds of all
petroleum supplies travel by sea
," and global energy demand will continue its inexorable rise, the
Indian Ocean
-

already heavily used by "nuclearized" powers such as Pakistan, India, China, and Israel
-

will dramatically increase in

strategic importance to the world's great powers. n29 The proximity of
nuclear states in the Asia
-
Pacific region, along with increased pressures commensurate with rising
energy demand, are already heightening military tensions among the major players in t
he region,
including China and Russia in particular. n30
Geopolitical constraints will become increasingly
difficult to manage as fuel prices continue to rise,

and intervention will be needed to combat piracy and
protect merchant shipping. n31
Make no mist
ake, the United States' continued dependence on fossil
fuels poses significant problems for the national interest
. The strategic implications are clear as U.S.
foreign policy throughout entire regions is framed in the context of energy. n32

MDL Scholars Program

Smar
t Grid Affirmative

28

Electric Vehic
les


Foreign Oil Dependence Impacts


Failure to shift from an oil
-
dependent transportation sector results in extinction
---

economic
collapse escalates to nuclear war


Bearden
,
June 12
,
2000

(Thomas, Association of Distinguished American Scientists and LT
C, U.S.
Army (Retired), “Why The Energy Crisis Needlessly Exists and How to Solve It”