Folie 1 - Working group: „Ecosystem Dynamics“

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Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

1

Ecosystem modelling

Reasons!




Ecosystem modelling

Types &
Methods…

Problems?

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

2

ALFRESCO

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

3

Reasons


develop understanding of processes in environment
(>understanding driven)


evaluate human impacts like landuse as well as climate
change, disturbances etc. (>application driven)



Ability to reconstruct historical states (postdiction)
or to extrapolate into the future (prediction)



Complexity increases with higher number of components


Models as possibility to reduce complexity by breaking
the task into smaller parts

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

4

Term


In general: model = abstraction of reality


Best model: achieves greatest realism with the least
parameter complexity and the least model complexity


„parsimony“ (simplest way that is adequate for purpose
of model)

! Often easier to model complexity than provide data to
parameterize, calibrate, validate it


if parsimony

principle fascilitates validation > it also
fascilitates utility of the model



Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

5

Objectives


Tool for understanding


As an aid for research


Tool for simulation and prediction


As a virtual laboratory


Integrator within & between disciplines


http://www.wiz.uni
-
kassel.de/ecobas.html

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

6

1. Types of Modelling

Maps & drawings





abstraction of
form

of
nature

Models





abstraction of
processes

in nature

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

7

2. Types of Modelling

Ecosystem modelling

Physical / hardware
models


means:


Scaled down version of
reality

Mathematical models


are:


Simple equations up to
complex software
codes

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

8

Classification of Models

1.
Conceptual type

2.
Mathematical type

3.
Spatial type

4.
Temporal type

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

9

1. Conceptual types

a)
Empirically based: describes observed
behaviour of the single variables, with
high predictive power

b)
Conceptual models: describe observed
relationship between variables

c)
Physically based: processes are
calibrated from physical principles

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

10

2. Mathematical types

a)
Deterministic equations: single set of
input > one output (spatially and
temporally exactly defined)

b)
Stochastic approach: single set of input >
different outputs

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

11

3. Spatial types

a)
Lumped models: simulates spatially
homogenious environment (no
subdivision of the area)

b)
Semi
-
distributed m.: multiple lumps
representing defined units

c)
Distributed models: rasters or triangulare
networks (TINs)

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

12

4. Temporal types

a)
Static models: excluding time aspect

b)
Dynamic models: including time aspect

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

13

5 steps to a mathematical model

1.
Problem identification > wordmodel

2.
Arrangement & parametrisation >
boundaries etc.

3.
Model building > development of
feedback control system

4.
Equations for basic processes >
programming

5.
Simulation / pay
-
off

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

14

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

15

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

16

Problems

Choice of model depends on:


Spatial/temporal extent of the area


Differentiation level you wish


Available data

Ecosystem modelling

you really have to know, for what you need
your model and seriously check and compare
it to your observations and sampled data

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

17

Sources



He H.S., Hao Z.H., Mladenoff D.J., Shao G., Hu Y., Chang Y. (2005):
Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating
spatial effects in north
-
eastern China.
Journal of Biogeography

32
: 2043
-
2056


He H.S., Mladenoff D.J., Crow T.R. (1999): Linking an ecosystem model
and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate
warming.
Ecological modelling

114
: 213
-
233


Klopatek J.M., Gardner R.H (1999): Landscape Ecological Analysis:
Issues and Applications. Springer, New York, NY


Rupp T.S., Starfield A.M., Chapin F.S., Duffy P. (2002): Modeling the
Impact of Black Spruce on the Fire Regime of Alaska Boreal Forest.
Climatic Change

55
: 213
-
233


Steinhardt U., Blumenstein O., Barsch H. (2005): Lehrbuch der
Landschaftsökologie. Elsevier, Spektrum Akademischer Verlag,
Heidelberg


Turner M.G., Gardner R.H. (1991): Quantitative Methods in Landscape
Ecology. Springer, New York, NY


Wainwright J., Mulligan M. (2004): Environmental Modelling: Finding
Simplicity in Complexity. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

18

Thank you for your patience with
the systematics!

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

19

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

31.5.2006

Bettina Ohse

20

Land
-
use change

This is an example of a spatial model implemented in Simile. It shows that Simile is capable of handling quite complex spatia
l b
ehaviour


in this case, landuse change in which the neighbours of a patch influence the likelihood of transition from one landuse state

to

another


even though Simile has no built
-
in constructs for spatial modelling.


The model illustrates three types of submodel:


1.The PATCH submodel is a fixed
-
membership, multiple
-
instance submodel, and is used to represent the fact that there are many la
nduse
patches. Each patch has row and column attributes, and each one is engineered to have a unique combination of values between
1 a
nd 20,
thereby defining each one’s position on a grid. (But to drive home the point: Simile understands nothing from the labels “row
” a
nd
“column”: it is up to us, the modellers, to ensure that these are given values which can be used as grid co
-
ordinates.)

2.
The FOREST and CROP submodels are contained inside the PATCH submodel. Therefore, each patch can (potentially) contain both a

forest and a crop submodel. However, note that each one is a conditional submodel: see the question
-
mark “condition” symbol in t
he top
-
left of each one, and note the little rows of dots leading from the bottom
-
right edges. This indicates that the submodel may exi
st in only
some of the patches, not all of them. In fact, the conditions are engineered so that each patch contains only forest or crop,

no
t both (but it
would be quite possible for us to have some agroforestry patches containing both, if that’s what we wanted.)

3.
Finally, the NEXT TO submodel is an association submodel, defining an association (relationship) between some patches and oth
ers
. We
can see that this is an association between patches by the presence of the two broad grey arrows (role1 and role2), pointing
fro
m the PATCH
submodel to the NEXT TO submodel. As the name suggests, this association defines which patches are next to which other patche
s.
Again,
it has a condition symbol, which is used to indicate under which conditions the association holds. We note that this has infl
uen
ces coming
from the row and column variables in the PATCH submodel: the condition is true when the row and/or column value for one patch

is

one
away from the row and/or column value of another patch.


The model works as follows. Each patch contains a state variable (the compartment “state”) which defines the state it starts
off

in. This is 1
for forest and 2 for crop. If a crop patch has been a crop patch for a certain length of time, then it is abandoned and rever
ts
to forest (as
mediated by the variable “change to forest”). If the volume of the trees exceeds a certain amount and the patch has crop neig
hbo
urs (this is
why we need to know which patches are next to which others), then the forest is cleared and it changes to crop as the landuse

(a
s mediated by
the variable “change to crop”).


The following figure show how the model behaves, using Simile’s grid map display to show the patches on a spatial basis.
Important note:
You may need to download the
Spatial Grid

display.

The light (yellow) squares represent the patches under crop; the dark (green) squares
represent forest. When users request this display, they are required to specify a variable indicating the column number for e
ach

patch, and the
actual variable to be displayed: Simile then has sufficient information to lay the patches out in the correct grid
-
based manner.

This display
shows how Simile can handle spatially
-
referenced information, even though it has no built
-
in concept of spatial modelling.


Initially, most of the area is forest, with a band of cropping land on the left. After 40 years, patches of forest on the for
est

margin have been
cleared, leading to a ragged edge to the forest boundary. In this particular run, the model was set up so that there was no r
eve
rsion of
cropped land back to forest, but as indicated above it has been designed to allow for this to happen.


Download the model file to see how the spatially
-
explicit model is formulated. You can use Simile’s new
Spatial Grid

display, as set
-
up by this
display configuration file,
but

you will need to install it first.

Ecosystem modelling