Philippine Economic Performance and Prospects for 2013

lizardgossypibomaΔιαχείριση

28 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 13 μέρες)

86 εμφανίσεις

Philippine Economic Performance
and Prospects for 2013

PortCalls Cargo Economics Conference 2013

Manila Diamond Hotel

07 February 2013

Emmanuel F. Esguerra, Ph.D.

Deputy Director
-
General

National Economic and Development Authority

Outline of Presentation

I.
2012 Economic Performance


II.
Outlook for 2013


III.
Near


term policy directions

I.
2012 Economic Performance

The economy
grew

by 6.6 percent in 2012...

Economic Performance
:
Growth Rate
(
in percent)



2010

2011

2012

Gross

Domestic
Product

7.6

3.9

6.6

National Primary
Income

10.0

1.0

3.3

Gross

National
Income
(Gross
National Product)

8.2

3.2

5.8

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
Source: Asian Development Bank, National Statistical Coordination Board

Real GDP growth higher than selected neighbors

Low and stable inflation

Favorable interest rate and

sound banking system

2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Headline Inflation
Low Target
High Target
Sustainable fiscal and external position

0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
NPL to Loans Ratio, RHS
Real interest rates, RHS
CAR, LHS
-4.00
-3.50
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
NG Debt to GDP (RHS)
Fiscal Balance to GDP (LHS)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
External Debt to GDP ratio, LHS
Current Account to GDP ratio, RHS
Sound macroeconomic fundamentals

*Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing

Source: NSCB

Growth
Rate

(in percent)



2010

2011

2012

AHFF*

-
0.16

2.68

2.7

Industry

11.58

2.25

6.5

Service

7.16

5.13

7.4

AHFF
Industry
Service
Share to GDP (in
%), 2012

56.9

11.1

32.1

Supply Side: Contributed Mainly

by Services and Industry

9.10

(21%)

7.50

(18%)

7.80

(18%)

7.90

(18%)

3.30

(8%)

7.20

(17%)

Transport, Communications
and Storage
Trade and Repair of MV,
Personal and HH Goods
Financial Intermediation
Real Estate, Renting, &
Business Activities
Public Ad & Defense,
Compulsory Social Security
Other Services
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

Growth
Rate

(in
percent)



2010

2011

2012

Transport,
Communications
and Storage

7.2

5.1

7.5

Transport and
Storage

1.0

4.3

3.3


Land

-
3.8

4.2

8.7


tater

9.5

3.4

4.2


Air

11.6

11.7

14.5

ptorage
an搠
services
inci摥ntal to
trans灯rt

8.6

15.2

12.1

Communication

8.5

2.7

9.2

Details of Transport, Communication and Storage

Services Sector
(in percent), 2012

Growth
Rate
(in percent)



2010

2011

2012

Household
Consumption

3.4

6.3

6.1

Government
Expenditure

4.0

1.0

11.8

Fixed Capital *

19.1

0.2

8.7

Exports

21.0

-
4.2

8.7

Imports

22.5

0.2

4.2

*Fixed Capital Formation = capital formation without changes in stocks

Demand Side: Net Exports and Private
Consumption
-
led growth

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board



2010

2011

2012

Export of
Goods

Growth rate (%)

24.7

-
6.0

8.4

Contribution
to
growth

(
ppt
)

8.8

-
2.5

3.2

Import of Goods

23.4

0.4

2.6

Contribution
to
growth

(
ppt
)

-
8.3

-
0.2

-
1.0

Net Export of Goods
(growth in %)


245.4


-
407.1


111.3

Contribution
to growth

(
ppt
)

0.5

-
2.7

2.2

Net
Export of Goods
and Services
Contribution
to
growth

-
0.6

-
2.2

2.0

Details of Net Exports

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

0
5
10
15
20
25
(Jan-Nov)
(Jan-Nov)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
JAPAN
ASEAN-5/1
US
PRC
Export Markets
(share to total, in percent)

Source:
National Statistics Office

/1 Other ASEAN
-
5 Members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
(Jan-Nov)
(Jan-Nov)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
ASEAN-5/1
US
Japan
PRC
Import Sources
(share to total, in percent)

*January to November 2012

Source:
National Statistics Office

/1 Other ASEAN
-
5 Members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

Source: Philippine Ports Authority

2011

2011

Jan
-

Jun

2012

Jan
-
Jun

y
-
o
-
y

growth

Cargo
throughput
(in
Mn

metric tons)

178.3

84.3

90.9

7.8

Ship Traffic

(number of
shipcalls
)

341,455

173,716

177,547

2.2

Passenger
Traffic
(in
Mn
)

49.5

27.1

27.3

0.6

Shipping: Nationwide Ports

0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Asia
America
Europe
Australasia/Pacific
Africa
Others
Overseas Filipinos***
Tourist Arrivals
(in levels)

II.
Outlook for 2013

Particulars

Actual

Assumption

2011

2012

2013









GDP

3.9

6.6

6.0


7.0









GNI

3.2

5.8

5.5


6.5

Growth Assumptions

*Approved by DBCC on June 6, 2012 (Currently being reviewed)

Particulars

Actual

Assumption

2011

2012

2013

Inflation

4.6

3.20


Target





3.0
-
5.0


Forecast





3.0
-
5.0

FOREX

43.3

42.34




Low





42


High





45

Dubai Oil (US$/B)

106.2

109.50

90
-
110

Exports (US$/B)

47.5

26.40

58.1


Growth
Rate

-
6.4

8.20

12

Imports (US$/B)

63

32.90

80


Growth
Rate

2.1

3.70

14

LIBOR, 6 months (%)

0.5

0.72

.5
-
1.5

364
-

Day
T
-
bill
Rate

2.3

2.05

3.0
-
5.0

Macroeconomic Assumptions*

Overall PH Consumer Confidence Index

Overall PH Business Confidence Index

Source: BSP

Source: BSP

Business and Consumer Confidence improved Q4 2012

Overall

Institutions


Macro environment

Higher Education and Training

Goods and Market Efficiency

Technological Readiness

Financial Market Development

Business Sophistication

Innovation

2010/2011

2011/2012

2012/2013

Improvements in governance and competitiveness
indicators: WEF Competitiveness Rankings

Near
-
term Risks to Growth

External Risks



Uncertainty in the Euro area



‘Fiscal cliff ’ of the US



Possible spikes in global petroleum prices


Internal Risks


El Nino and typhoons


Non
-
passage of urgent and priority bills



Delayed implementation of institutional reforms



Persistent high underemployment and unemployment

III.
Near
-
Term Policy Directions

22

NEAR TERM POLICY DIRECTIONS

Stimulating
domestic
demand

Diversifying
domestic
and external
trade

Accelerating
fiscal
spending

Strengthening
economic
relations with
fast
-
growing
ASEAN
economies

Port
-
Related Policy Directions in PDP 2011
-
2016


Encourage investments in logistics infrastructure


Promotion of existing ports outside Metro Manila


Review and develop/reform policies and rules,


Handling and Port/transport facilities under PPP


Full restructuring of the ports; upgrading of quality and
capacity; improvement of performance and efficiency
of port operations


Installation of international maritime security standards


Application of the “user
-
pays” principle.


Adoption of a comprehensive long
-
term National
Transport Policy (NTP)

a.
Connection of regions to facilitate access to markets
and basic services

b.
Diversify production and trade

c.
Improve the efficiency of public investments as catalyst
to private sector

d.
Enhance the investment climate

e.
Improve revenue and tax efforts for more infrastructure
spending

f.
Creation of Transport Infrastructure Roadmap

g.
Energy security and reduction in cost of power

Policy Thrusts

f.
Simplify labor regulations

g.
Strengthen the agriculture sector

h.
Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk
Reduction Management

i.
Promote good governance

j.
Minimize corruption

Policy Thrusts

Thank you!

Philippine Economic Performance
and Prospects for 2013

PortCalls Cargo Economics Conference 2013

Manila Diamond Hotel

07 February 2013

Emmanuel F. Esguerra, Ph.D.

Deputy Director
-
General

National Economic and Development Authority