Outlook on Renewable Energy

lizardgossypibomaΔιαχείριση

28 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 7 μήνες)

83 εμφανίσεις

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management


Outlook on Renewable Energy

(and reducing GHG emissions)
.





Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry,

Zeist, 2
nd

November 2012


André Faaij

Copernicus Institute


Utrecht University

Head of Unit Energy & Resources

Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40, CLA Bioenergy IPCC
-

SRREN

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Houston

we have a problem!


Peak oil


Peak soil


Peak water


Peak biodiversity
loss


Peak population


Peak GDP


Climate


Agriculture


Energy


Biodiversity


Poverty &
development

And it is urgent!

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Global population projections

(stabilization at about 9 billion in GEA)

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

World population (billion)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Population (billion)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

GEA Industrialized

GEA Developing

[GEA, 2012]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Economic development projections

(
developing countries avg. 3.5%/yr;

developed countries 1.2%/yr)

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

World GDP (trillion US$ 2005)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

GDP (trillion US$ 2005)

0

100

200

300

400

500

GEA Industrialized

GEA Developing

[GEA, 2012]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Transport…

Can result in 2 billion

passenger cars in 2050

Tripling compared to 2000


Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

The current global energy system

is dominated by fossil fuels.

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Global

CO
2

emissions from fossil
fuel
s

(IEA base scenario; 2030)

[Source: IEA]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

More carbon in underground than the
atmosphere (and oceans) can swallow.

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

GHG emissions vs. global
temperature…; little disagreement
about the impact of a 6 oC change..


[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2012]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Grenzen aan de groei…?

[Meadows]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Nervous
markets…

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

What to do?

Despair

or ….

Do something

Use your climate
toolkit

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

The BLUE Map Scenario


Towards a low
-
carbon energy sector



Baseline

Scenario



business
-
as
-
usual; no adoption of new energy
and climate policies


BLUE Map Scenario
-

energy
-
related CO
2
-
emissions halved by 2050
through CO
2
-
price and strong support policies


Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps


23% of global emission savings occur in the transport sector







Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Historical

Development of

Global Primary

Energy Supply

from RE

(1971


2007).

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Global RE supply by source in Annex I
(ANI) and Non
-
Annex I (NAI) countries in
164 long
-
term scenarios (2030 and 2050).


Thick black line

= median,

Coloured box
=

25th
-
75th percentile,

Whiskers

= total range across all reviewed scenarios.

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Global primary energy supply of biomass in
164 long
-
term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and
2050, grouped by different categories of
atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Costs available RE technologies
vs. fossil energy costs.

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

RE costs have declined in the
past and further declines

can be expected in the future.

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

‘Learning investments’


the cost of learning

Source: IEA, 2000

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units
of a new power plant technology

Source: EPRI

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Technical Advancements: growth in
size of commercial wind turbines.

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

CSP seen as driver for
economic development…

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Experience curve for primary forest fuels
in Sweden and Finland (1975 and 2003).


Source: Junginger Faaij et al., 2005

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Experience curve for the average and marginal
production cost of electricity from Swedish
biofuelled CHP plants from 1990
-
2002


Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Estimated future costs of
sugarcane and ethanol production
assuming 8% annual growth

Explaining the experience
curve:

Cost reductions of
Brazilian ethanol from
sugarcane

J.D. van den Wall Bake, M.
Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot,
A. da Silva Walter

Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

And such opportunities can
be found in most sectors…

[Martin Weiss et al., 2010]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Key factors

biomass potentials

Dornburg et al., Energy &

Environmental Science 2010

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management


2050 Bioenergy Potentials &

Deployment Levels

2008 Global
Energy Total


Chapter 2

Possible

Deployment

Levels


2011 IPCC

Review*

Land
Use

3

and 5

mi l l ion
km

2

Chapter 10

Modelled

Deployment

Levels for CO2

Concentration

Targets


Past Literature

Range of

Technical

Potentials

0
-
1500 EJ

Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y

2008 Global

Biomass Energy

2050

Global

Energy

AR4,

2007

2050 Global

Biomass
AR4,

2007

<440

ppm

440
-
600

ppm

Technical

Potential

2050 Projections

Minimum

median

75
th

Maximum

100

300

150

190

80

265

300

Technical Potential

Based on 2008

Model and Literature

Assessment

118

20

25

25
th

Percentile


2000 Total Biomass

Harvest for

Food/Fodder/Fiber

as Energy Content

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Projected production costs estimated
for selected
developing

technologies

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision


Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050


Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050


Diesel/kerosene
-
type biofuels key to decarbonise heavy transport modes


Large
-
scale deployment of advanced biofuels vital to meet the roadmap targets





Final energy (EJ)

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Biofuel Production Costs 2010
-
50


Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements



Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case




Producti on costs shown as untaxed retai l pri ce

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

[IPCC
-
SRREN, 2011]

Driving forces, dimensions, scales…

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Source: Statoil

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Conceptual CO2 transport
configurations


Damen et al., 2008

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

CO2 avoidance costs for

electricity production (ref: identical
technology without CCS).


Damen et al., 2007

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

An ultimate energ transition machine:
flex
-
fuel IG/synfuel/power +CCS

Major investments in China.

-

No oil for transport!

-

50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission.

About 50%

of carbon!

[Meerman et al., RSER 2011 & 2012]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

What are we waiting for?

Yueyang

Sinopec
-
Shell

Coal gasification
project; (China)


Shell gasifier arriving

at site September 2006.


15 licences

in
China at present…



Courtesy of Shell

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

GHG emissions per km driven

[Van Vliet et al., 2009]

No CCS

CCS

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Energy system transformation…

[Vuuren et al., Current opinions in Env. Sust., 2012]

Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Final remarks


Business as Usual
: likely given the current
governance capabilities; it’s correctional force and
collateral damage may be impressive.



Global Governance
; preferred and to be pursued;
but will it deliver on time?



Smart economics
: economic superiority for
sectors, countries, households…; connects to
current system capabilities and psychology.


Develop (niche) markets and market volume.


Divert fossil fuel subsidies (budget neutral).


Rock solid innovation strategies backed by macro
-
economic interests:
THINK ASIA!!!.


Copernicus Institute

Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

Niet lullen maar poetsen mensen

en dank voor uw aandacht

A.P.C.Faaij@uu.nl

sciencedirect/scopus

srren.ipcc
-
wg3.de/report