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Water, Energy, Food Nexus: A
Perspective Through Eyes of
W
ater Policy

Johannesburg, April 20, 2012

by Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli

Institute for Water Resources

US Army Corps of Engineers

Governor World Water Council

Editor in Chief
Water Policy

priscoli@erols.com


e.g. Recent U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment

During the next 10 years, many countries………….will
experience water problems

shortages, poor water
quality, or floods

that will risk instability and state
failure, increase regional tensions, …………….Between
now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up
with demand absent more effective management of water
resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key
countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a
risk to global food markets and hobbling economic
growth.

.(
Global Water Security U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT
-
ICA 2012
-
08, 2 February 2012)

Water Security and Social Stability:

Worldwide Growing Concerns for Mega Nexus

By 2050 $63 trillion in Global GDP could be at risk because of water stress

IFPR

in
Tapping Water Markets, by
Anderson, et. al.,
RFF

Press,2012

p 159
.

How to allocate and reallocate among the sector uses?

Which sector has priority? Why?

Water
-

Energy
-

Food Linkages

(Samples from World Economic Forum Initiative)

Increase in energy demand by 40% using current system means


increase of freshwater needs by 165%

If the Ogallala Aquifer runs dry, more then $20 billion worth of

food and fiber will vanish from the World's markets….

James Little Saving the Ogallala Aquifer, Scientific American 19, March 32
-
29

Shale extraction, concentrated solar plants demand large increase


freshwater use

Replacing 5
-
6% of energy consumption with bio fuels could double



water withdrawals for agriculture

Water essential for all the core drivers of economic growth

In U.S. 13 % electricity is to move, treat, and heat water
.

California’s water
-
related energy uses 19% of the state’s electricity,

30 percent of natural gas, and 88 billion gallons of diesel fuel/yr

UN Water 2007

With projected Population growing to 9 Billion


do we have enough water to feed ourselves?

1. Looking at WEF Mega Nexus through a Water Policy
IWRM

Lens

Water is the constraint that forces choices; trade
-
offs


integrative “jump start”

Trade
-
offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values:

Patterns Change over time: Depend on:


Socio
-

Economic Development



Political Culture


Geography (wet, dry, variability)


Available
techology

Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power


Often defined as technical terms and political is left out


BUT
-

Cannot achieve integration w/o political

Processes to allocate water are means to achieve NEXUS integration/success:


Politics


Markets


water banking
-
RBO’s

-

Infrastructure
-

Planning


Regulations


Defining Rights


trade


technology
-

others

Logic of Water
O
rg’s

often not logic of legal
Org’s
:

Finding the operational Nexus Region Specific Trade
-
offs

Center of Allocations Debates

Efficiencies
-

Accountability


Legitimacy

Equity
-

Fairness

Macro Social Values/Goals

Markets
-

Trading in South Australia

During 6 year + drought Water use overall was cut back 70%

agricultural production value dropped only 30%
(WSJ, 2/28/12 A8)

Interstate Compact Commission Interstate Commission
for Potomac (ICPRB)

16 dams originally planned; actual 1 large and 1 minor dam

by best use of non structural approaches & coordination of States through ICPRB;

system yield up by 50%
-

in stream needs and quality vs. 45% with dams

China: Increase of Irrigation Efficiencies 30 years


0 growth in Irrigation water use


Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares


Increase grain yield by 50%

(
Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn)

History


Mega Nexus concerns not new to Water Policy

Mega Nexus and Water Policy central to Growth of Civilizations


E
arly Humans adapted by moving as climate changed


Technical Interventions allow Migratory to Sedentary


Creativity and innovation


Canals for irrigation


routes for boats and more trade +++


19
th

cen. Disease spurs Public Water Supply Systems

Political Cultural Drivers of Change


Water Reforms most advanced
where see Macro Economic reform
open markets, less corruption, more
participation


water crises


macro economic crises (
Mexico
,
India…)


political restructuring (SA
-

human
rights…)


liberalization policies (
Chile, Brazil,

China…)


meeting EU standards (Spain, Poland,
Hungary…)


international lenders and donors

1808: Gallatin Report

Waterways to be used for:

Building Political Unity and Nation

National Defense

Economic Development

1824: GIBBONS VS. OGDEN

(Estbl. Federal Powers vs. States)

Claims are said to be repugnant



1st. To that clause in the constitution which
authorizes Congress to regulate commerce.

2d. To that which authorizes Congress to
promote the progress of science and useful arts.

Birth & Growth of the U.S.

Water
Ways
& Establishment of National Federal
Interventions
Over Interstate Issues

Gibbons

Ogden

Marshal

1920’s
-
“308” Reports:
Congress Authorizes USACE do Comp.






assessments of all major rivers of the US

,

a corporation clothed with the power of
government but possessed of the flexibility and
initiative of a private enterprise.”
(FDR
, 1933)

TVA
dams
to harness the region’s rivers to control
floods, improve navigation, and to generated electricity.

Cross Subsidies


integrations of power
production,
navigation, flood control, malaria prevention,
reforestation, or erosion
control, agriculture
productivity…….

In 1 Generation TVA a Region Poverty to Prosperity

“Power is really a secondary matter. What we are doing


there is taking a watershed with about three and a

half million people in it, almost all of them rural, and

we are trying to make a different type of citizen out of

them from what they would be under their present conditions.”

(FDR, Press Conference, Warm Springs,
Ga
, November 23, 1934)

But attempts for 7 more TVA’s fail:

Hells Canyon Dam: Reasserts agriculture priority use

Small hydro vs. large MOP

States vs. Federal Gov

No constituency for Regions or semi autonomous Regional Entities



with comprehensive power for MOP

How do we approach the need for integration on such scale?

DANGER: Political implications in Holistic Comprehensive Approaches

Philosopher of Science Karl Popper (in 1944) cautions
:

“Holistic or Utopian social engineering….aims at reforming

the whole of society in accordance with a definite plan…

extending the power of the state…”


“Piecemeal engineering …concerned with the whole…tries to achieve ideals by


small adjustments and readjustments…to continually improve…”


“Holistic methods turn out to be impossible…the greater the changes… the greater

The Unintended Consequences…..forcing piecemeal improvisation…

unplanned planning….”


“Piecemeal engineering ….attacks problem with open mind….for it has decided

beforehand that .. reconstruction is possible and necessary…(that human

uncertainties exist)”


Holistic engineering deal with uncertainty of human factor by controlling it through


institutional means…….
(Popper, Piecemeal social Engineering, in Popper Selections, p 308
-
311)


Adaptation
-
adaptive management becomes the democratic norms.

The Small “s”: Water: Means to Other Social Ends



Our English Dictionaries define security as:

“ freedom from danger, from fear or anxiety, from want or
deprivation.”


This is the history of humanity’s management of water:


trying to be sure we have good water, in the right quantity at the

proper time and place.


Predicting floods, reserving sources for droughts, using water to

help us generate wealth and avoid deprivation.


The Big “S”: Conflict, War, Large Scale Violence


Water as Independent variable, cause of war


conflict


Water as Tool of War


social Violence


Eco


Shocks and Social Unrest

WATER SECURITY: BIG “S”AND SMALL “s”

Interdependence Vulnerability

or Flexibility?

2
.
DEFINING WATER AND SECURITY

Defining Water Stress and “s”

Defining Water Stress: Access vs. Scarcity vs. Stress

North & Central America: 15% of Water


8% of population

Asia:




36% of Water


60% of population

South America:


26% of water


6% of population

Europe:



11% of water


13% of population

Africa:



11% of water


13% of population

(Zimmerman in
T.L.

Anderson, Tapping Water markets,
RFF

Press, 2012 P. 4)

Access to What?

Asia: 35% of waste water is treated

Latin America: 14% of waste water is treated

Africa: 1% of waste water is treated

(
T.L.

Anderson, Tapping Water markets,
RFF

Press, 2012, P. 5)

Most People live:

Far distance from water sources;

Where most water comes in only a few months of the years.


Hard to determine whether water is truly scarce in the physical sense at

a
global
scale (a supply problem)



Hard to determine if it is available but should be used better (a demand

problem). Most widely used indicator, the
Falkenmark

indicator,

does not
help to explain the true nature of water scarcity.



The more complex indicators are not widely applied because data are

lacking to
apply them and the definitions are not intuitive.



Water is (p) physically scarce in densely populated arid areas, Central
and

West
Asia,
and
North Africa,



Scarcity at a national scale has as much to do with the development of
the

demand as
the availability of the supply.




Frank R. Rijsberman

,


,



International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka




Defining Water Stress and the small “s”:
Summary
on Water Indices

Internal Stability

and Security (large S)

Water Security (small s)

Minimum Platform for Growth

Investment in
allocation means (e.g. hard and soft Multi
-
Purpose

Water Infrastructure)

Water Actions as Key Societal

Adaptation Tools

Strategic

Security

3. MAIN THESIS

WATER IS MORE THEN ACCESS


Many uses: irrigation, floods damage reductions,
drought, ecological flows, hydropower, energy
coolants, navigation, recreation


Multiple Purpose uses Allows for Jointly Creating
Benefits (both off and on) the water vs. Fighting
Over Allocation of Flows


Key to Water Venue of
Dialog


Water’s Tradition of Expanding the Negotiating Pie
vs. Reallocating Limited Pie:


Absolute vs. Relative Scarcity; Redistribution vs. Relative Deprivation


Interest/Needs Based Negotiations
-

Approaches


Virtual Water Movement


Water More Humanity’s Learning Ground for
Building Community then Generator of War

Mechanisms to allocate and reallocate among water uses
are Keys to Meg Nexus:

RBO’s
-

Infrastructure
-

Markets
-

Planning


Regulations


Rights


trade


technology
-

others

Grey and
Sadoff
,
World Bank

4
.
Water Infrastructure
Investment Matters


Strong correlations between

public capital investment and

movements in private sector productivity


Ratio of non
-
structural/behavioral measures to

structural measures matters:


If too high

-

extreme events can crack social


system as leaders have no tools to respond


If too low

-

ecological costs are too high

Myth of Soft Path = More Democratic


Investing in Managing Uncertainty Creates

Platform for Growth

Water in a Changing World, The UN World Water Development Report 3, UNESCO, 2009

Trends in Water Access: By 2015 will

meet targets of 90% with access

Trends in Sanitation: By 2015 only slightly

more with access and will fall far short

Average Income levels and irrigation intensity in India

Net effect: districts with
:



< 10% of cropped area irrigated
---

69% below poverty line



> 50% of cropped area irrigated
---

26% below poverty line

“Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi

China: 30 years


0 growth in Irrigation water use


Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares


Increase grain yield by 50%

Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn

Bri scoe, Worl d Bank, 2000

Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982
-
2000

Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978
-
1993

Economy
-
wide impacts

Ethiopia’s….limited ability to cope with droughts and floods….are

estimated to cost the economy one
-
third of its growth potential

(IWMI, Water Policy Brief, Issue 31, 2009)

Grey and
Sadoff

World Bank

Richest Nations

Poorest Nations

Losses %

GDP

Economic

Losses

% GDP

Billion $

700


600


400


300


200


100


0

14


12


10


8


6


4


2

0

Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the

Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985


99
(world watch 2001)

Delli Priscoli and Guillermo Mendoza,
USACE
, IWR 2010..

Emerging Nations


Impairment to Human activity and Creativity is key;



not just # Trigger Events: (e.g. Damage % of GDP…)





RURAL WATER SUPPLY

57


60


URBAN WATER SUPPLY 15


65


RURAL ELECTRICITY


66


99


VILLAGE ACCESS

71


98


LITERACY





55


69


INFANT MORTALITY (%0) 111


60



LANDLESS POPULATION* 40

**

25


* Irrıgable areas

** 1995 figures


1985 2000

Turkey 2000


(%) (%) (%)

REGIONWIDE CHANGES 1985
-
2000

75

73

99

99

85.1

35.3

25

GAP
-

SE Anatolia

Using Water to Achieve Operational Mega Nexus

5. Context: World Water Situation


Some of the Gloomy Arithmetic

of Water


1.4 billion people lack safe water


80% of diseases carried by water: 1 child every 8
seconds killed and 5
-
7 million people annually: $125
billion in workday losses/yr.


50% of people lack adequate sanitation


20% of freshwater species near extinction


76% live in water stressed areas (less then 1000cm):
most in politically unstable regions


Losing irrigated land by 30% in 2025 and 50% by 2050


50% of people will depend on world markets for food


Asia: Over two thirds of population live in areas where
80% of rainfall occurs in 20% of the year




75% of People Without Access to Safe Water
Reside in 16 Countries




(numbers in millions)

Source: The U.N. State of the
World Population, 2004

40% of Worlds population lives on shared

basins: or more than 50% of earth landmass

VIRTUAL WATER

INTERDEPENEDENCE

WATER SECURITY

Virtual water trade in Asia could reduce water use for irrigation by 12%

Ground Water


A spectacular increase of
groundwater development for
irrigation has occurred in most
arid and semiarid countries.
It is
a “silent revolution”.


Probably, about 50 % of the
value of irrigated agriculture is
obtained with groundwater but
the volume of groundwater used
is only a small fraction of the
corresponding volume of surface
water used for irrigation.

World wide:

Draw downs, land subsidence, saltwater


intrusion, rising pumping costs, pollution

Poor and Privatization


Of the 100 recent cases
-

80% in
middle income countries


A few International companies
4
-
5


The Poor pay far higher % of
income:


$1/cm
-

$2.50/cm on average


In US we pay $.30
-

$.80 on
average


Connected poor pay $1/cm &
unconnected $5.50
-
$16.50/cm!

Cochambamba Bolivia

Increased Urbanization


Hydro Potential Used: OECD countries 70%, LA 35%, Asia 20%,

Africa 6%



2 Billion People lack Electricity and electricity Demand is growing
-

Cheap
Electricity a traditional key to economic development

World Economic Forum 85%+ of renewable is Hydro

Type of water
-
related natural
disasters, 1990
-
2001


Distribution of water
-
related


disasters, 1990
-
2001






More than 2,200 major and minor water
-
related disasters occurred in the
world between 1990 and 2001. Asia and Africa were the most affected
continents, with floods accounting for half of these disasters.


Extracted from the Executive Summary of the World Water Development report. CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Dis
asters). 2002.
The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Brussels, Université Catholique de Louvain.

TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF DISASTERS

“You cannot say that because there is climate change that
the developing World shouldn't grow…you are essentially
saying, ..no more electricity to your house, close your
factories, go back to the fields.”
(C.
Bhyhan
, Center for Science and
Environment New Delhi, 2009, in Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009)

“In India…almost half a million children die each year from water borne

Diarrhea, providing access to basic services such as clean drinking water

Is more pressing ten cutting emissions,… and to do so requires energy..”

(Indian Minister
-

Wash
Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009)

“If as a result of technology, self denial and determination, you were to cut

Your emissions by 50%
-
the moment you achieve it yourself, we will accept

that cap.”
(
Ahluwalia
, Policy Advisor, Government India, in Wash Post, B8, Nov. 22 2009)

6. Climate Change
-

Energy


Water Mega Nexus Debate

Adaptation vs. Mitigation Raise Ethical Issues in Water Policy Debate

(E.G.s from Copenhagen)

Recent Assessment of Climate Models



Regional trends in extreme events
are not always captured by current
models





It is difficult to assess the
significance of these discrepancies
and to distinguish between model
deficiencies and natural variability

How Accurate Are Global Climate Models?

(CHRS
-
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California,
Irving)

Factoring in Resiliency in water resources systems


design and planning is still the safest approach!

Political


No matter stand on mitigation: water actions will be needed


Positive outlet for politicians


Do something which registers in generational memory

Analytical


Existing Tradition of refined modeling to support probabilistic IWRM


GCM models cannot relate to level of sub continental:


to decisions needs of Water Managers


Given uncertainty


already at 500 yr return rates

Moral


Need actions that affect source of fears in near future

Economic


Fraction of Mitigation costs

Ethical Dilemma of Climate Change Policy and Water

Climate, water and security debates are raising public anxiety

About Change while inadvertently denying adaptive means to

cope with projected events; thus raising questions about the

ethics of adaptation vs. mitigation


Energy Water Nexus Debate

8
.
Africa

Africa’s
colonial
legacy:

many
international rivers


60+ basins


More int’l rivers shared

by 3 or more countries

than any other continent



most future water development

on international rivers



political
complexity


requires
capacity/resources


dispute
constrains
growth


cooperation
a major growth opportunity

Dependence
on
Neighbouring
States for
River Inflows
/ Water
Transfers

500

1000

0

Kilometres

N

0 %

0
-

10 %

11
-

24 %

25
-

49 %

> 50 %

Degree of Dependence on
Neighbouring States

© Pete Ashton



Drought


Flood & inundation


Landslide


Desertification


Contamination


Epidemic & disease


Dispute, even conflict

Water: a source of
destruction & poverty, &
dispute


Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006

“Approximately
11 million

people are
threatened by starvation in Djibouti,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and
Tanzania… Rain is unlikely before April”

2006: International Year of Deserts and
Desertification

each year, desertification & drought
cause an estimated $42bn in lost
agricultural production


People’s Daily, March 11, 2006

Malawi Cholera Outbreak

"we have cholera outbreaks every year
during the rainy season"
-

Habib
Somanje, Preventive Health Services. 46
people have died from the recorded
3,852 cases
.


The Daily Monitor, Feb. 7, 2006

“The death toll from the drought was
also swelling from an upsurge in
fighting between nomadic cattle
-
herders over scant water & grazing
resources ... March could see many
more killed”
Oxfam, Kenya

The three menaces to Africa’s stability and peace:
Climate Change, natural resources degradation and
low infrastructure

Increase in storms and

flood disasters

Need for Operational Mega Nexus

Ousman

Dione

World Bank

Africa’s Natural Legacy: Massive
climate
variability
with vulnerability to droughts

Risk of recurrent
drought

M
uch
higher rainfall variability than USA

Significant correlation between rainfall
variability & GDP

Mean Annual Rainfall

Monthly
Rainfall
Variability

Bubble Size = GDP per capita

(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)

Most Sub Saharan Africa
countries
face more challenging climate
conditions

High variability

High mean

Wealthy nations share a small
window of favorable climate
(low variability; moderate rainfall)

After Brown, 2007

Africa’s MDG Challenge

Africa’s
gap in
meeting basic
water supply and
sanitation

Africa’s
gap in
developing and
modernizing its
irrigation
potential:

South Africa, Somalia (2)
<25%;


Mali, Sudan, Uganda,
Botswana, Malawi,
Zimbabwe (6) 25
-
50%;

Rest >50%


Ousman

Dione
, World Bank

Hydropower
potential tapped

Africa’s
infrastructure gap:
electricity

Africa and Europe
:

Hydropower
comparison

Pop.
Mill.

GNP/cap
$

HP pot.
MW

HP dev.
MW

Elec./ca
p
kWh/yr

CO2
em.
ton/c/yr

Ethiopia

61

105

45,000

700

22

0.00

Kenya

29

361

1,600

700

106

0.05

Rwanda

8

241

100

27

26

0.00

Tanzania

33

267

3,200

557

56

0.01

Uganda

22

298

2,800

278

38

0.00

Austria

8

23,333

18,300

11,700

6,457

1.51

France

59

22,128

26,000

25,200

6,539

4.32

Germany

82

22,430

8,000

5,600

5,963

4.50

Italy

58

18,808

22,800

15,267

4,732

2.98

Norway

5

36,889

47,200

27,873

24,422

3.23

Ousmani

Dione
, World Bank

Africa’s infrastructure gap: Lack of water storage

North
America: 6150
m
3
/person

Australia: 4729 m
3
/person

China:
2486
m
3
/person

Artificial storage


m
3

per person

World Bank

Adaptive Security Matrix

Egypt

Zimbabwe

Burundi

Mozambique

Tanzania

Malawi

Eritrea

Sudan

Angola

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2

4

6

8

10

14

18

22

26

1

3

5

7

9

12

16

20

24

28

Namibia

Botswana

Mauritius

South Africa

Swaziland

Uganda

Kenya

Congo DR

Zambia

Adapti vely Insecure

Adapti vely Secure

Second
-
Order Resource Availability Expressed as GNP PPP for
1998 in US$/cap/yr
-
1

X 10
3


Lesotho

Ethiopia

© Turton & Warner, 2002.

Looks like New Day in Southern Africa:

…Over allocations of water


new demands that will not go away



must shift use of water


new reallocating mechanisms

needed to find highest value uses


(e.g. markets
-

trading


technology
-

others)

Southern Africa not alone; others struggle with same problems;


Hydrology and maintaining socio/economic prosperity:


Prices not reflecting scarcity


need to shift demand curve reallocate:



California and U.S. South West


South Australia and Murray Darling


China North


others

Existing Hydraulic Infrastructure in Africa

(Engines of Socio/Economic Prosperity
)

Ashton in Turton et. al. 2008

Economist
, March 31
st



April 6
th
, 2012, p 57

Democracies in Africa

Africa: Hydraulic Infrastructure

Political Economy of Water Investment

as Platforms for Growth??

FDI to Developing = $400 billion:

2006

-

$37 billion in Aid


$17 billion in FDI

2007

-

Africa 5% of World Capital Flows; Today 1%
(
Moyo

p,98)

As African aid African growth poverty

From 1970s social services/poverty from 5% to >50 % of aid
(p.47
Moyo
)

Aid = Dependency and corruption: Africa needs


Direct investment different FDI instruments such as bonds and

infrastructure;


China almost $ 900 Billion in FDI since 2004;


2004
-

Chinese FDI = $900 million: US FDI = $20 million;


Chinese are bartering energy for infrastructure


equity
investment
.
(p100
-
113,
Moyo
)

Current Africans surveyed view

Chinese influence more positive then U.S.
(p. 120 Moyo)

Last 50 years $ 1 Trillion transferred in Aid to Africa: 30 years ago Malawi,
Burundi, Burkino Faso higher per capita then then China
(p.x Moyo).

Dead Aid : Why Aid is not Working,
by

Dambisa Moyo

9. Conclusions

Water is the constraint that forces choices; trade
-
offs


integrative “jump start”

Trade
-
offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values:

Patterns Change over time: Depend on:


Socio
-

Economic Development



Political Culture


Geography (wet, dry, variability)

Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power


Often defined as technical terms and political is left out


BUT
-

Cannot achieve integration w/o political

Processes to allocate water are means to achieve operational NEXUS:


Politics


markets


water banking
-

RBO’s



Infrastructure
-

Planning


Regulations


Defining Rights


trade
-

others

Finding the operational Nexus Region Specific Trade
-
offs

river

+

+

dike

=

Political
order

=

Water management (and water reform) is ALWAYS
political…..

Ancient Chinese Characters describing water
management


治水

治国

Only one who can govern water,

He can govern a country.

One who wants to govern his country

Should govern water first.