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INSTRUCTOR:
Dr.
Xijin

Ge



MID
-
TERM PROJECT

MATH 592: DATA MINING





Akram


Ameya




Liming





Priya

03/03/2011

Youtube

Video clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAjdM74d2Oc




Background


Motivation


Objectives


Crime
Classification in United
States


--
All States in United States


--
Major cities in United States


Data Collection


Results and Analysis


Conclusions


References


2



Crime


Deviant behavior that violates prevailing norms or cultural
values.



Influential factors:


Social


Political


Psychological


Economical



Impact and remedies

3



Crime has a long history.


Some religious communities regard sin as a crime.



Famous historian Henry Thomas Buckle :



“Society prepares the crime, the criminal commits it.”



In 19
th

century onwards, development of sociological thought
prompted some fresh views on crime and criminality.


Criminology, a new disciplinary, was invented
to study crime in society.



In 1959, Daniel Glaser et.
al.
, found the strong relationship of crime
and economic conditions associated with adult
unemployment [1].



4


In
1976,
Bruce H. Mayhew et. al.,
found
that there will be wide
variety of social interaction in higher population area
and
therefore
increases the crime of
violence [2].



In
2004, John R.
Hipp

et. al. found that both the violent and property
crime rates are driven by pleasant weather
[3].



In 2004, Lance
Lochner

et. al
.,
found that schooling significantly
reduces the probability of incarceration and arrest
[4].



In 2007,
Sesha

Kethineni

et. al., found that unemployment
influences crime both directly and indirectly through social
pathologies such as drug and alcohol use
[5].



5

Objectives


Need

to

find

the

influential

factors

of

crime

to

help

reduce

the

crime

in

a

society
.



Collect

crime data and other influential factors of crime for
United States through available sources.


Visualize and statistically analyze the
crime
data in major cities,
states & the entire country of USA.


Determining
the relation
of
different
kind of
crimes
in
major
cities and states in USA.


Suggest some of the influential factors to help reduce the crime
in the
U
nited States.


6



F
BI has been tabulating uniform crime reports annually since
1930
.



Crime Index includes


Violent
Crime


Property Crime



Violent Crime includes


Murder


Forcible rape


Aggravated assault


Robbery



Property Crime includes


B
urglary


Larceny theft


Motor
-
vehicle
theft


7


Population


Geography


Size of state or city


Illiteracy


Unemployment


Per capita


Inflation rate

8


Year covered from 1979 to 2007.


Crime data obtained from FBI source.


Other variables used are Inflation rate, Unemployment rate, Population
and Per Capita of USA. (Sources * )


9


Crime data was of year 2003.


All 50 states are covered.


Other variables used were Population, Illiteracy, Unemployment and Regions
based on weather.


States were divided into South
, West, Midwest and
Northeast regions.



10









Crime data for cities in USA (2003)


Data of five major cities for each state in USA


Some of the variables in the dataset include Population,Murder,Arson etc.


Cities were divided into three categories: Large, Medium and Small.





11


In 1980
-

t
he Cold War ended
between USA and USSR


In 1984,


US
presidential
election


(
Ronald Reagan was re
-
elected
)


Summer Olympics, Los Angeles
California, USA


In 1991
-

Gulf War
in the Middle
East.


In 2001
-

Terrorist
attack in the
World Trade
Center and Pentagon on
September 11.


In 2002

-

Department
of Homeland
Security was formed on November
25.


In 2003
-

Drop down of crime
index.


In 2007
-

The beginning of recession
in the United States.




12

1980

1991

1984

2001

2002


Crime index is positively correlated with inflation rate.




13


From the above plot, unemployment rate was at its peak in
1980.


The pattern decreased with a range from 1990 to 2007.

14

Property crime has decreased linearly over the years as compared to
Violent crime which has a peak at 1991.

Property crime vs. Year

Violent crime vs. Year

15

There is no significant correlation between vehicle theft and
unemployment rate (r=0.1123)

16


Divided into 4
Regions:


West (Blue)


South (Green)


Northeast (Red)


Midwest (Yellow)



Divided
into
50
states.




17


S
outh
region
had higher unemployment and illiteracy.


Midwest region was better among all regions.

18


Crime and illiteracy rate were high in populated states.


Higher illiteracy rate yielded higher crime in all regions.



California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
19

Size of bubble indicates
population of a state.

a
a

Illiteracy

Crime index

California
Texas
Florida
New York
Illinois

Crime and
unemployment rate
were high in populated states.


Higher
unemployment
rate
yielded higher crime
in all regions
.


Population were
higher in states with pleasant weather.


Pleasant environment leads to high population and so high crime rate



21

Unemployment
rate

Crime Index

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/crimereports/09/citCh2
.pdf

Texas


Population and crime index are strongly correlated.


Population raises crime index in the
states.


24

Population

Crime index


Both illiteracy and unemployment are correlated to crime.


Illiteracy is more connected to crime than unemployment.



26


Mostly states having high population have high crime index, high
illiteracy and high unemployment.




27

Converting
city variable into categorical:



large
, middle, and small cities by people


large: population>150000


middle: 150000>=population>=45000


small: population<45000

Converting state variable into two variables:



state.ew

and state.sn



state.ew

includes four categories:


eastern
, middle, western, and other



state.sn
contains three categories:


southern
, mid,
northern

Adding two variables




ratio.total

: total number of crime/population per city




ratio.car

: number of car theft/population per city






28

Histogram of ratio.total
ratio.total
Frequency
0.02
0.06
0.10
0.14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Histogram of ratio.car
ratio.car
Frequency
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Histogram of population
population
Frequency
0e+00
2e+06
4e+06
6e+06
8e+06
0
20
60
100
140
Histogram of total
total
Frequency
0
50000
150000
0
20
40
60
80
29

a
. Ratio of total crime across city variable





ANOVA: Analysis of variance




H0: There is no difference in ratio of total


crime across large, middle, and small cities.




H0 is rejected based on the output of R below.


There is significant
difference.



>
aov
(formula=
ratio.total~city
)



Df

Sum
Sq

Mean
Sq

F value
Pr
(>F)


city 2 0.036206 0.0181030 35.364 3.869e
-
14


Residuals 233 0.119276 0.0005119



30

Large
Middle
Small
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
Boxplot.ratio.total.city
City
ratio.total
31

b.
Ratio of car theft crime across city variable


Df

Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)


city 2 0.036206 0.0181030 35.364 3.869e
-
14


Residuals 233 0.119276 0.0005119


Large
Middle
Small
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
Boxplot.ratio.cartheft.city
City
ratio.car.theft
32

Size: population

Color : City


Proportion
of violent
crime increases with
total crime
.


States with high
population seem to
have a higher crime
rate.

33


Property crime has a
perfect correlation
with total
crime.


R value shows that it
is highly correlated
as compared to
violent crime
.

Size: population

Color : City

34

1. When
Population increases total crime increases.

2. Correlation of larger city is more than small and middle cities
but small cities are more correlated than middle
cities.


35


Robbery and
Aggravated
Assault seems
to be highly
correlated.


Car Theft and
Robbery have
low correlation.

36


Murder and
Robbery are
highly
correlated.


Burglary
and Arson
have low
correlation
.

37


Murder and
Robbery are
highly
correlated.


Burglary and
Arson have
low
correlation
.

38


Major
events or crises in a country can influence the crime
index of a country.


Inflation
rate and crime index
are positively
correlated
.


Population
was
positively
correlated
with crime rate in both state and city
level
.


Larger cities have high crime rate.


Car Theft is high in large cities.


Murder and Robbery seem to have high correlation in small and medium
cities.


Regions or states having pleasant weather have bigger population and
crime
index.


Illiteracy rate is more highly
correlated to crime
index than unemployment rate.


Government should focus more on lowering illiteracy rate first than solving
unemployment to reduce crime index.




39

1.
Daniel
Glaser and Kent Rice,” Crime, Age, and Employment”, American Sociological
Review, Vol. 24, No. 5, pp. 679
-
686, Oct,
1959

2.
Bruce
H. Mayhew and Roger L.
Levinger
, “Size and the Density of Interaction in
Human
Aggragates
.” ,The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 82. No. 1, pp. 86
-
110, Jul.
1976

3.
John
R.
Hipp
, Daniel J. Bauer, Patrick J. Curran and Kenneth A.
Bollen
, “Crimes of
Opportunity or Crimes of Emotion? Testing Two Explanations of Seasonal Change in
Crime”, Social Forces, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp. 1333
-
1372, Jun. 2004
.

4.
Lance
Lochner

and Enrico
Moretti
, “The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from
Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self
-
Reports” ,The American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No.
1, pp. 155
-
189, Mar., 2004
.

5.
Sesha

Kethineni

and David N. Falcone, “Employment and ex
-
offenders in the United
States: Effects of legal and extra legal factors.”, The Journal of Community and Criminal
Justice, Vol. 54(1), pp. 36
-
51,
2007


* Source:


Crime
in the United States,

2007, FBI, Uniform Crime Reports.


http://
www.disastercenter.com/crime/wicrime.htm


http://
www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004902.html#ixzz1ESnn3Tf9


http
://www.miseryindex.us


40