Scenario Planning on LTE mobile

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23 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

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Scenario Planning on LTE mobile
network V
irtualization

Xue Bai

Supervisor : Prof.
Heikki
Hämmäinen

Instructor :
Nan Zhang

MSc
. in Communications
Ecosystem

Aalto University

Agenda


Research Objectives


Background of LTE & LTE virtualization


Methodology


Scenario planning


Brainstorm(PEST model
)


Key Findings


Conclusion


Future work


Objectives



The
mobile

networks are

expensive

and
scarce


Network

virtualization reduces

the amount

of infrastructure


reduces
energy usage





What are the alternative scenarios of virtualized
LTE network for next 5 years?



Supporting strategic questions:


What is the role of key stakeholders in LTE
virtualization?


How will different scenarios influence the mobile
network virtualization in the future?

Background



---

LTE(
Long
-
Term Evolution
)


A standard for wireless communication

Figure

1:

Basic LTE
system
architecture(Harri&Antti 2011)

Core network

Radio access network

Background


---

LTE Core network virtualization

Figure

2
:

3GPP compliant OpenFlow controlled gateway architecture (Jari 2013)

HSS
MME
PCRF
UE
E
-
UTRAN
OpenFlow Controlled GW
S
-
GW
P
-
GW
OpenFlow
Controller
forwarding
forwarding
Operator

s
IP services
S
1
-
MME
S
1
-
U
LTE
-
Uu
SGi
Gx
Rx
S
11
S
6
a
1
-
n

Background


---

LTE A
ccess
network
virtualization(Air interface)

Figure
3:

Virtualized LTE eNodeB protocol stack (Yasir
2012)

Methodology



---
Scenario Planning(1/2)



To forecast the future?


Too difficult




To envision
alternative futures (= scenarios)


Not just the probable futures, but also the improbable ones


Not to forecast, but to
bound the uncertainty


Methodology



---
Scenario
Planning(2/2)

Figure

1:

Scenario

planning

process (Schoemaker 1993)

Methodology



---
Brainstorm


An
individual or group process of idea generation



To identify key trends and uncertainties




PEST analysis


E
conomic / industry forces


S
ocial forces


T
echnological forces


P
olitical
/ regulatory forces


Importance

Uncertainty

Key uncertainties


Key trends



Key findings


---
Major stakeholders(value network)

Network
equipment
provider
Service
/
content
provider
End
-
user
Mobile virtual
network operator
Mobile network
provider
Key findings


---
Scenario analysis(1/5)

MNO: Mobile Network Operator

CSP: Cloud Service Provider

NEP:

Network Equipment
Provider

MVNO:

Mobile Virtual
Network Operator

Key uncertainties:

U1
: Will LTE virtualization result in intense competition in the mobile market ?

U2
: Will virtualization of LTE lower the
costs?

High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc
.
1
:
Regulator
-
driven
competition
Sc
.
3
:
Cooperation
between NEP and MNO
Sc
.
2
:
MNO
-
driven mobile
market
Sc
.
4
:
Balance between
CSP and NEP
Key findings


---
Scenario analysis(2/5)

Sc.1:
Regulator
-
driven
competition


Regulator
has the power to increase the
competition.


MNOs will be pushed to give the cloud
out.


NEPs may own the network, since they operate the network now.


CSPs may establish their own mobile network to compete with MNOs
.


CSPs/NEPs

may
challenge
the leadership position of MNO in the market.


More new players will entry the market.



Price to consumers may decrease.

High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc
.
1
:
Regulator
-
driven
competition
Sc
.
3
:
Cooperation
between NEP and MNO
Sc
.
2
:
MNO
-
driven mobile
market
Sc
.
4
:
Balance between
CSP and NEP
Key findings


---
Scenario analysis(3/5)

Sc.2: MNO
-
driven
mobile
market


MNOs
may try to replace the role of CSPs
.


CSPs

may rent the network from MNOs to reduce the cost.


NEPs
may need expand to provide ICT solutions to keep their profit
.


High barrier will be set
for
new entrants.


The
price for consumers may not decrease significantly.


High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc
.
1
:
Regulator
-
driven
competition
Sc
.
3
:
Cooperation
between NEP and MNO
Sc
.
2
:
MNO
-
driven mobile
market
Sc
.
4
:
Balance between
CSP and NEP
Key findings


---
Scenario analysis(4/5)

Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO


MNOs may sale the network to NEPs/MNVO to compete with CSPs.


The
price for consumers may
decrease.


High barrier will be set
for
new entrants
.


The level of virtualization is not high
.



High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc
.
1
:
Regulator
-
driven
competition
Sc
.
3
:
Cooperation
between NEP and MNO
Sc
.
2
:
MNO
-
driven mobile
market
Sc
.
4
:
Balance between
CSP and NEP
Key findings


---
Scenario analysis(5/5)

Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP


MNOs
will not take the role of CSPs.


MNOs
may rent/sale the cloud services to CSPs.


MNOs may rent/sale the network to NEPs.(No threaten to MNOs)


The revenue of MNOs may
increase because of the better performance.


The price for consumers may not decrease
.


High barrier will be set to new entrants
.

High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc
.
1
:
Regulator
-
driven
competition
Sc
.
3
:
Cooperation
between NEP and MNO
Sc
.
2
:
MNO
-
driven mobile
market
Sc
.
4
:
Balance between
CSP and NEP
Conclusion &
Future work




The level of LTE virtualization will be determined by the cost reduction.


LTE virtualization may change the market value network in the future.


Scenarios are built from the perspective of LTE virtualization.


Key uncertainties are
correlated
to a certain extent.


Strategic
planning can be done by any given key
stakeholder in the future.


Cost
reduction can be measured in OPEX and CAPEX.





Thank

you
!