Explore Mars - The University of Texas at Austin

kissimmeemisologistΒιοτεχνολογία

14 Δεκ 2012 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

178 εμφανίσεις

Mars: On the Path or In The Way?

Brent Sherwood

brent.sherwood@jpl.nasa.gov



GLEX, May 2012

The Space Show, July 24, 2012

FISO, August 1, 2012

HSF ≠ Exploration

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

2

Explore Mars
: A Refractory Meme


von Braun, 1948


Das
MarsProjekt



Kennedy, 1961


U.S. to the Moon



Success, twisted


The means or the end?


GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

3

Why Can’t Mars Be Like Apollo?

A lot has changed in half a century…


1.
Technical:


Better grip on magnitude of the challenge

2.
Financial:


More realism about what space stuff costs

3.
Budget:


NASA spending power half the Apollo peak

4.
Society:


Space is not today’s “final frontier”

5.
Exploration:

Accelerating return from robotic missions



By the time humans could step onto Mars,

w
hat would it mean for them to “explore?”

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

4

1. Technical Challenge: Unpredictable Cost


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GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

5

2 & 3. Finance & Budget: Also Unpredictable

NASA HSF investment is $10
10

per year


A given for the next four decades?


ISS


1984:

$10
10

over a decade


Actuals:

$10
11

over three

Explore Mars


Today:

$10
11

over 3
-
4 decades


By mid
-
century:

??

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

6

4. Society: a Few of Today’s Frontiers


Genetic
engineering



Nanotechnology



Artificial intelligence



Networks



Sustainable
energy

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

7

5. Exploration: Another 30
Years Raise
the Bar


Presence
at Mars is now
continuous


Robotic
mission longevity routinely exceeds design
life


Resolution
, sensitivity, data volume,
flexibility all increasing


Scientific
results now go beyond simple
discovery


Insight
is increasingly synoptic in
space and time


Missions
are programmatically
sequenced, focused on MSR


Investigations culminate
in
questions about life

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

8

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Mars Orbital Missions

Mars Surface Missions

Data Returned (GB)

Data Returned (GB)

Publications, Major Journals

Publications, Major Journals

MSL

Phoenix

MERs

Pathfinder

Vikings

MRO

MGS

Odyssey

Vikings

Mariner 9

Mariner 6.7

Mariner 4

1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
1
10
100
1000
10000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Prime
mission only.

+20 GB/2yr
thereafter

Exploration: Robotic Return Accelerating

Sherwood

9

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

First flyby


20 images, 1% coverage


First reprogrammable computer


200 images, 20% coverage

Dual flyby

First orbiter


1
-
yr lifetime


7300 images, 80% coverage

First landers


4
-
yr lifetime (orbiter)


52,000 images, 97% coverage


Soft landing, orbital data relay

Mars not like Earth…

…but neither like the Moon

Enormous geological features, dynamic planet

Dynamic conditions and surface conditions measured.
Mars was very different in ancient past.

No apparent life signs.

Global survey

First rover


10
-
yr lifetime


Aerobraking


Data > sum of previous missions

3
-
D topography maps. Daily and seasonal weather patterns.

Regions rich in water
-
formed minerals.

Active geology today, possibly water
-
related.


84
-
sol lifetime


2.3 Mb, >17,000 images


Dual
-
viewer, stereo images


Contact mineralogy

Diverse rock types/composition. Dust extremely fine.

Mars likely warmer, wetter in distant past.

Global survey 2


>11
-
yr lifetime (still active)


Data > sum of previous missions

Radiation in low Mars orbit 2x that in LEO.

Global mineralogy to 1
-
m depth. Ancient floods.

Vast regions with subsurface ice.

Surface exploration


9
-
yr surface life (still active)


8 and 35
-
km traverses


Sub
-
weathered contact mineralogy


Radar to 5
-
km depth (from orbit)

Proof of long
-
standing water in the past.

Profiles of layered subsurface ice deposits.

Motion pictures of transient phenomena (dust devils).

Global mapping


7
-
yr surface life (still active)


161 Tb of data so far


30 cm/pixel imaging

Detailed surface images anywhere needed.

Engineering images of entry systems on surface.

Multiple investigations of historical role of water.

Discovery of lava tube skylights.

Polar surface/ice

Mariner 4

Mariner 6,7

Mariner 9

Viking 1,2

MGS, Pathfinder

Odyssey

MER, MARSIS

MRO

Phoenix


150
-
sol surface life


North polar region site


Onboard wet chemistry lab


Soil grain microscopy

Proof of ice beneath thin regolith cover.

Perchlorate.

MSL

MAVEN

“Follow the water”

“Search for life signs”

Proposed return of samples to Earth

Habitability

Volatiles over time

Propose more samples returned? Prepare for humans?

Sherwood

10

Human Exploration?


Hopping and driving around, and taking photos, won’t cut it



What is exploration when every rock is already mapped?



Robotic discovery of evidence of life in the interim?


An unmanageable wild card against which to bet 40 years and $10
11



People can figure this out


why should we be surprised
that the support we need isn’t there?

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

11

Three Other Options for HSF

Option

Purpose

Myth

Needs



(+ $10
11

over 40
yr
)

Yields

2050 Space
Population

Explore
Mars

Extend direct
human
experience as far as
possible

Hero

(
Lewis and
Clark)

Public commitment
sustained over several
decades

Cultural achievement: setting foot
on Mars

Six international
civil servants

Settle the
Moon

Establish humanity as a
two
-
planet species

Pioneer

(
Heinlein)


Routine
heavy traffic to
lunar surface


Use of lunar resources


Living off the land


in space

10
3

citizens raising
families off
-
world

Accelerate
space
passenger
travel

Create new travel
-
related industries

Jet set

(Branson)


Four 9s


reliability
launch and entry


Highly reliable, reusable space
vehicles


1
-
hr intercontinental travel

10
3

crew + 10
5

citizens in LEO
every year

Enable
space solar
power for
Earth

Prepare for post
-
petroleum age with
minimal
disruption

Green

Public
-
private and inter
-
Agency partnerships


Energy
-
abundant future


Economical heavy
-
lift
launch

10
2

skilled
workers
in GEO

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

12

Self Determination


NASA is not required to
Explore Mars


Not by U.S. National Space Policy


Not by U.S. Law


Not even by NASA’s own Strategic Goals



Our rationale for
Explore Mars
is weak


Largely self
-
referential


Explore Mars

does not uniquely satisfy what we say is important



In the end, we will get what we earn


Perhaps we should quit whining and design our product for success

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

13

Policy: Uniquely
Explore Mars
?


Energize competitive domestic
industries


Expand
international
cooperation


Strengthen
stability in
space


Increase
assurance and resilience of mission
-
essential
functions


Pursue human and robotic initiatives


Improve space
-
based Earth and solar observation

National Space Policy, 2010

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

14

The Law


Uniquely
Explore Mars
?


LONG TERM
GOAL


The
long term goal of the human space flight and exploration efforts of NASA shall
be to
expand permanent human presence beyond low
-
Earth orbit

and to do so,
where practical, in a manner involving international partners.


KEY
OBJECTIVES


The
key objectives of the United States for human expansion into space shall
be:


to sustain the capability for long
-
duration presence in low
-
Earth orbit, initially
through continuation of the ISS … and through assisting and enabling an expanded
commercial presence … as elements of a LEO infrastructure;


to
determine if humans can
live in an extended manner in space
with decreasing
reliance on Earth
, starting with utilization of low
-
Earth orbit infrastructure, to
identify potential roles that
space resources such as energy and materials
may
play, to meet national and global needs and
challenges … and to explore the
viability of and lay the
foundation for sustainable economic activities in space
;


to maximize the role that human exploration of space can play in advancing overall
knowledge of the universe, supporting United States national and economic
security and the United States global competitive posture, and inspiring young
people in their educational pursuits; and


to build upon the cooperative and mutually beneficial framework established by
the ISS partnership agreements and experience.

NASA Authorization Act, Section 202, 2010

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

15

NASA Strategy

Uniquely
Explore Mars
?


Extend and sustain
human activities across the solar system


Expand scientific understanding of the Earth and the universe
in which we live


Create the innovative new space technologies for our
exploration, science, and economic future


Advance aeronautics research for societal benefit


Enable program and institutional capabilities to conduct
NASA’s aeronautics and space activities


Share NASA with the public, educators, and students to
provide opportunities to participate in our mission, foster
innovation, and contribute to a strong national economy
.

NASA Strategic Goals

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

16

Self
-
Made Do Loop?

NASA’s
“History of
Human Space
Exploration


GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

17

Self
-
Licking Ice Cream Cone
?

ISECG
Goals


Perform Science to support
human exploration


Develop exploration
technologies and
capabilities


Engage the public in
exploration



Search for life


Extend human presence


Perform space, Earth, and
applied science


Stimulate economic
expansion


Enhance Earth safety

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

18

Rationale, or Rationalization?

Search for
Life

Extend Human
Presence

Science

Economic
Expansion

Earth
Safety

Explore Mars







---

---

Settle the Moon

---









Accelerate space
passenger travel

---



---

✓✓

---

Enable space
solar power for
Earth

---



---

✓✓

✓✓

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

19

A Real
Roadmap
Shows Detours

Space

passenger
travel

Orbital

resort
hotels

Expand HSF
into GEO

Demonstrate
end
-
to
-
end SPS

Demonstrate
SPS scale
-
up

Industrialize
GEO

Demonstrate
space habitation

Settle
the
Moon

Explore the
solar system

Commercial Investment

Government Investment

Develop
space flight

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

20

Formula for a Vibrant HSF Future


Stop wondering what is wrong with people who don’t care about
what matters to us


Recognize that the world has moved on in the half century we have
been peddling the same dream


Stop asserting that HSF is essential for finding life on Mars


Stop expecting $10
10

per year of (only) public investment


Design the HSF product for success


To attract private capital


To solve genuine problems


To be central to society moving forward


Have the right debate


Which unaffordable destination…


…or what
we could
really

do for
humanity?

GLEX


May 2012

Mars: On the Path or In the Way?

Sherwood

21

Urban Geography from GEO

Sherwood, Apr 2012

London

0
°

Prime Meridian

180
°

International Date Line

Kolkata

San Salvador

The View from GEO