Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing Countries

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22 Φεβ 2014 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 6 μήνες)

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Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management
in Developing Countries



John Furlow

US Agency for International Development

Glen
Gerberg

Weather and Climate Summit

Breckenridge 2012




What Is USAID?

USAID at a glance


An independent

federal agency
under the general
policy guidance of the US Secretary of State


Operating in 100 countries with over 75 field offices


$ billions invested annually in:


Water and sanitation


Agriculture


Democracy & governance


Economic growth & trade


Environment


Education & training



Health


Humanitarian assistance


USAID’s Climate Change Program


Overall Goal: Assist countries as they develop in ways that reduce
emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts


Mitigation:

Clean Energy:

23 countries, 11 Regions/Bureaus

Reducing net GHG emissions by spurring the deployment of clean energy technologies. Priority
areas: energy efficiency, low
-
carbon energy, clean transport, and energy sector reforms.


Sustainable Landscapes:
14 Countries, 5 Regions/Bureaus

Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector (e.g., tropical forest
destruction and degradation) and augmenting sequestration of carbon in landscapes, including
building capacity to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions.


Adaptation:
19 Countries, 12 Regions/Bureaus

Building capacity in vulnerable countries and communities to prepare for, reduce, or
cope with negative impacts of climate change; Designing resilience into development
assistance.

Adaptation portfolio 2011

Africa:


Ethiopia

Kenya

Malawi

Mali

Mozambique

Rwanda

Senegal

Tanzania

Uganda

East
Africa Regional

Southern
Africa Regional

West
Africa Regional

Cambodia

Indonesia

Philippines

Timor
-
Leste

Vietnam

Bangladesh

India

Maldives

Nepal

Regional Mission
-
Asia (RDM/A)

Asia:


Dominican
Republic

Guatemala

Jamaica

Peru

Barbados
and Eastern
Caribbean

South
America Regional

Latin America &
Carib
:


23 countries

$139 million in total



Adapting to Climate Change
Impacts in Developing Countries

Challenges to Adaptation in Developing Countries


Underlying development
challenges


Education


Governance


Health


Infrastructure


Poor historical records


Poor current weather data


GCM uncertainty


Poorly adapted to current
conditions


Numerous pressing needs

What Is Adaptation?


IPCC: adaptation is “Adjustment in systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects. . .”


Process of examining and understanding vulnerabilities


Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability, build resilience

Why Adapt to Climate Change?


Developing country
economies concentrated in
climate sensitive sectors



~70% of developing country
populations derive income
from agriculture


-
80
-
60
-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-
30
-
25
-
20
-
15
-
10
-
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
World Bank
-
80
-
60
-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-
30
-
25
-
20
-
15
-
10
-
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
-
80
-
60
-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-
30
-
25
-
20
-
15
-
10
-
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
World Bank
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
-
80
-
60
-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-
30
-
25
-
20
-
15
-
10
-
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
World Bank
-
80
-
60
-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-
30
-
25
-
20
-
15
-
10
-
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
-
80
-
60
-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-
30
-
25
-
20
-
15
-
10
-
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
World Bank
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
Ethiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, GDP


Weather, Climate, and Livelihoods


Alerts for East Africa









Major crisis continues; response inadequate

06/07/2011


Conditions worsen in Eastern Horn


05/06/2011


Forecasts poor, crisis likely to worsen


03/15/2011


Poor Oct
-
Dec rainfall likely in East Africa

11/02/2010


Food security expected to deteriorate further

12/30/2009


Poor start of
kiremt

season in Ethiopia


08/13/2009


Forecast poor rains to deepen food insecurity

10/23/2008


High and rising food prices continue


08/12/2008


Food aid pipeline faces serious shortfalls

06/23/2008


Forecasts suggest increased food insecurity

03/31/2008


Making the Most of Adaptation Investment

Climate Stress in the Development Context

Economic drivers / Social development objectives
:


Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing


Inputs or essential conditions:

Natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems,
labor, safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness


Stressors (climate, non
-
climate):

Changes in rainfall, temperature, SLR, corruption, pollution


Interventions:

Information, capacity building, public awareness, freshwater
management, coastal/marine management

Program design

Resilience improved

Understanding climate vulnerability

15

Vulnerability: determined by exposure,
sensitivity, adaptive capacity



Exposure:

Is an asset out in the
elements?


Flooding, drought, erosion,
sedimentation


Agriculture is exposed, highly
dependent on weather/climate




Sensitivity
:

Does exposure matter?


Are crops suitable to a range of temperatures and precipitation profiles?




Adaptive
Capacity:
Can you respond?


Ag sensitivity can be reduced with irrigation, drainage, crop selection


Crop and economic diversification can reduce damages


Insurance spreads risk

Stresses

Vulnerability factors

Exposure


What


Infrastruct
.


Populations


Ecosystms


Where


Coastal zone


Estuaries


Adaptive
capacity


EWS


Governance


Multiple
sources


Skilled
decision
-
makers


Redundant
systems

Sensitivity



Quality of
infrastruct
.


Type of water
source


Housing


Health status



Potential impacts

Response options


Damaged
infrastructure


Lost productivity


Illness


Food insecurity


Non Climate


Poor infrastructure,
maintenance


Lack of regulation


Pollution


Climate


Increasing temps


Rainfall variability



Seasonal weather forecasts


Guidance and awareness


Restore watersheds




Redundant infrastructure


Zoning, flexible land use


Increase water storage


Objective: Health, productivity, food

Inputs
:
Infrastructure, water, ecosystems,
management, information, climate, policy

Climate Service Partnership

Climate
Service Partnership

Growing consensus that providing climate
information

can help decision
making

International Conference on Climate Services:


NOAA, UK Met, German Climate Service,
WMO, Global Framework for Climate
Services, World Bank, USAID

Principles:


Tailored to decision needs


Focus on key development sectors


Open access to data


USAID
/West Africa: Climate Adaptation Support
Service for regional
development

Value Chain of Climate Information


Identify User Needs


Translate Information for users


Deliver Information


Apply Information for decision making


Robust Decisions



IRI


IFRC Map Room:

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.IFRC/.Forecasts/

21

SERVIR: Tools to Assist Development

Vulnerability and Adaptation Training
Workshop

22

SERVIR: Disaster Response

Climate Mapper Tool

Climate Mapper Continued


Rural Radio: RANET

Applying Weather and Climate
information: Index Insurance

Four main “buckets” for risk management



Risk reduction


Risk retention


Risk transfer


Post
-
disaster assistance

27

Frequent, less severe
events

Rare, very severe events

Losses

Probability

Risk reduction

Insurance

Aid/Relief

Retained


Irrigation


Water use efficiency


Drought resistant varieties


Training on climate change


Access to forecasts


Reforestation


Community monitoring systems


Grain storage, seed banks

Managing Climate Risks: Glacier
Lake Outburst Floods

Glacier Lake Hazards in Nepal


Tourism: 50% of Nepal’s GDP


Region accounts for 5% of arrivals


Some Statistics on our expedition:


35 scientists, development
practitioners, journalists


~25 porters and guides


~12 vertical miles walked


~75 linear miles walked


18 days on trail



Thank You


jfurlow@usaid.gov


http://
www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate