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Insights from Global TGI

Moving Targets

The New Global Consumer Landscape

© 2010 Kantar Media

2


THE WORLD IS CHANGING


FAST!

© 2010 Kantar Media

3

The macro picture: the shift of consumer power to the BRICs




The impact at the consumer level




Global brand owner activity in the BRICs




Next after the BRICs: the “CIVETS”?



The rush to digital




The impact of digital on media behaviours




A prediction for the future: it’s all about mobile internet

THEMES

© 2010 Kantar Media

4

THE MACRO PICTURE:


THE SHIFT OF CONSUMER POWER TO THE BRICs


© 2010 Kantar Media

5

THE GENESIS OF THE “BRICs”

BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA

© 2010 Kantar Media

6

Population
43%
BRICs FUNDAMENTALS

BRAZIL + RUSSIA + INDIA + CHINA

Area
26%
Arable Land
31%
GDP
14%
© 2010 Kantar Media

7

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT


2008


US$ (TRILLIONS)

TOP 10 MARKETS

1.6
1.6
1.7
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.7
4.4
4.9
14.3
Brazil
Spain
Russia
Italy
UK
France
Germany
China
Japan
US
Source: Goldman Sachs

© 2010 Kantar Media

8

7.0
9.3
37.7
11.4
8.6
5.1
5.0
70.7
6.7
38.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.7
4.4
4.9
14.3
Indonesia
Mexico
India
Brazil
Spain
Russia
Italy
UK
France
Germany
China
Japan
US

GDP


2050 FORECAST


US$ (TRILLIONS)

TOP 10 MARKETS


Source: Goldman Sachs

© 2010 Kantar Media

9

THE IMPACT AT THE CONSUMER LEVEL


© 2010 Kantar Media

10

COMPARATIVE GROWTH: DEVELOPING vs. DEVELOPED

HAVE CAR IN HOUSEHOLD (%)

8
41
75
91
15
45
77
92
India
Brazil
GB
US
% in 2000/01
% in 2009/10
Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

(note: India like
-
for
-
like comparison using metro class only )

+92%

+3%

+8%

+0.2%

© 2010 Kantar Media

11

COMPARATIVE GROWTH: DEVELOPING vs. DEVELOPED

OWN A MICROWAVE OVEN (%)

5
35
78
87
12
52
88
89
India
Brazil
GB
US
% in 2000/01
% in 2009/10
+148%

+13%

+50%

+3%

Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

(note: India like
-
for
-
like comparison using metro class only )

© 2010 Kantar Media

12

COMPARATIVE GROWTH: DEVELOPING vs. DEVELOPED

HAVE A CREDIT/DEBIT CARD (%)

7
31
84
80
19
57
90
83
India
Brazil
GB
US
% in 2000/01
% in 2009/10
+189%

+7%

+84%

+4%

Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

(note: India like
-
for
-
like comparison using metro class only )

© 2010 Kantar Media

13

COMPARATIVE GROWTH: DEVELOPING vs. DEVELOPED

HAVE A CREDIT/DEBIT CARD

1.3
17
39
161
7
37
46
184
India
Brazil
GB
US
million in 2000/01
million in 2009/10
+274%

+14%

+123%

+14%

Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

(note: India like
-
for
-
like comparison using metro class only )

© 2010 Kantar Media

14

45
39
41
39
51
33
50
37
Mobile phone
PC at home
Brazil (65m)
Russia (58m)
France (50m)
GB (49m)
COMPARABLE CATEGORY SIZES

PENETRATION IN MILLIONS

Base
:
Total measured adult population

Source:
Global TGI

© 2010 Kantar Media

15

GLOBAL BRAND OWNER ACTIVITY IN THE BRICs


© 2010 Kantar Media

16

Brazil

India

China

Russia

Coca
-
Cola

(Soft Drinks)

Britania

(Biscuits)

Safeguard

(Toilet Soap)

Makfa

(Noodles)

Colgate

(Toothpaste)

Parle

(Biscuits)

Arawana


(Cooking Oil)

Lipton

(Tea)

Omo

(Washing Powder)

Tata

(Salt)

Mr.Kon


(Instant Noodle)

Ahmad

(Tea)

Veja

(Multi
-
use cleaners)

Dettol

(Household Antiseptic)

Rejoice

(Shampoo)

Bonduelle

(Canned Vegetable & Fruits)

Moça

(Condensed Milk)

Ujala

(Washing Powder)

Coca Cola

(Soft Drink)

Baltimor

(Tomato Ketchup)

Hellman's

(Mayonnaise)

Brooke Bond/Lipton

(Tea)

Meng

Niu


(Ice Cream)

Dobry

(Juice Drinks)

Ypê

(Dishwashing Detergents)

Maggie
Masala

(Instant Noodles)

Diao

(Laundry Detergents)

Princessa

Nuri

(Tea)

Bombril

(Scouring Pads & Sponges)

Vim

(Dishwashing Bar)

Wrigley's

(Chewing Gum)

Alpen

Gold / Kraft
Foods

(Chocolates)

Knorr

(Concentrated Stock Cubes)

Pepsi

(Soft Drinks)

Pepsi

(Soft Drinks)

Lyubimiy

Sad

(Juice Drinks)

Nissin

(Instant Noodles & Pasta)

Amul

(Butter)

Meng

Niu


(Milk)

Orbit

(Chewing Gum)

Source: Global TGI

THE DOMINANCE OF MULTI
-
NATIONALS

TOP BRANDS/PRODUCTS BY PENETRATION

Red
boxes
= brands owned by international companies

© 2010 Kantar Media

17

GLOBAL BRAND OWNER STRATEGY IN THE BRICs:


CATEGORY FLOODING


© 2010 Kantar Media

18

Vert %
Index
Vert %
Index
SEL Level 1 (Top 10%)
11.2
112
9.2
92
SEL Level 2 (Next 20%)
21.1
106
19.3
96
SEL Level 3 (Next 30%)
30.7
102
30.3
101
SEL Level 4 (Next 40%)
37.0
93
41.2
103
DETERGENT BRANDS BY SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC LEVEL:

RUSSIA

Source:
Marketing Index Russia 2010

Base: Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

19

Use Toilet Soap
Dove
Lux
Lifebuoy
Vert %
Index
Vert %
Index
Vert %
Index
SEL Level 1 (Top 10%)
17.1
171
10.5
105
8.1
81
SEL Level 2 (Next 20%)
24.6
123
20.1
100
18.9
94
SEL Level 3 (Next 30%)
30.9
103
30.5
102
30.8
103
SEL Level 4 (Next 40%)
27.4
68
38.9
97
42.2
105
TOILET SOAP BRANDS BY SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC LEVEL:

INDIA

Source: TGI India
2010

Base: Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

20

Use Deodorant
Dove
Rexona
Axe
Vert %
Index
Vert %
Index
Vert %
Index
SEL Level 1 (Top 10%)
14.3
143
9.0
90
7.3
73
SEL Level 2 (Next 20%)
25.2
126
21.4
107
21.9
109
SEL Level 3 (Next 30%)
30.9
103
31.1
104
31.0
103
SEL Level 4 (Next 40%)
29.6
74
38.5
96
39.8
100
DEODORANT BRANDS BY SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC LEVEL:

BRAZIL

Source:
Target Group Index
Brazil
2010

Base: Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

21

NEXT AFTER THE BRICs: THE “CIVETS”?


© 2010 Kantar Media

22

THE “CIVETS”


The countries where the next
-
highest growth rates after the
BRIC economies are expected.



They are:


Colombia


Indonesia


Vietnam


Egypt


Turkey


South Africa

© 2010 Kantar Media

23

GROWTH IN THE “CIVETS”

COLOMBIA

24
16
11
17
9
29
43
28
46
88
Car in household
Microwave oven
Credit/debit card
PC at home
Mobile phone
% in 2002
% in 2009
Source:
TGI Colombia

Base
:
Total measured adult population

+23%

+166%

+180%

+935%

+146%

© 2010 Kantar Media

24

GROWTH IN THE “CIVETS”

EGYPT

10
2
18
32
11
3
28
65
Car in household
Credit/debit card
PC at home
Mobile phone
% in 2005
% in 2009
Source:
TGI Egypt

+9%

+54%

+101%

+17%

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

25

GROWTH IN THE “CIVETS”

TURKEY

24
11
32
20
63
30
15
36
46
83
Car in household
Microwave oven
Credit/debit card
PC at home
Mobile phone
% in 2006
% in 2010
Source:
TGI Turkey

+23%

+127%

+29%

+31%

+11%

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

26

GROWTH IN THE “CIVETS”

SOUTH AFRICA

27
32
24
15
49
30
54
47
20
79
Car in household
Microwave oven
Credit/debit card
PC at home
Mobile phone
% in 2004
% in 2010
Source:
TGI South Africa

+12%

+35%

+69%

+62%

+93%

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

27

THE RUSH TO DIGITAL


© 2010 Kantar Media

28

Average penetration of nine digital items:







MP3 Player


DVD Player



PC



Mobile Phone



Internet



Broadband



Internet on phone


Digital Camera



Digital Camcorder

DIGITAL ADVANCEMENT INDEX

© 2010 Kantar Media

29

14
28
28
28
30
33
35
37
38
40
41
45
46
50
52
54
55
56
India
Ecuador
Venezuela
Argentina
Mexico
Peru
Russia
Colombia
Brazil
China
Chile
Germany
Spain
France
Japan
GB
USA
Korea
DIGITAL ADVANCEMENT INDEX

SELECTED MARKETS

Source: Global
TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

30

3
12
27
27
28
32
33
40
41
45
47
48
55
56
63
73
73
92
India
Ecuador
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Argentina
Colombia
Spain
Brazil
Chile
China
Russia
Germany
Japan
France
US
GB
Korea
HAVE INTERNET ACCESS AT HOME (%)

SELECTED MARKETS

Base
:
Total measured adult population

Source: Global
TGI

© 2010 Kantar Media

31

62
62
64
65
66
71
72
74
74
75
80
84
87
88
88
89
91
96
Argentina
Mexico
India
Ecuador
Venezuela
Peru
Colombia
Brazil
Germany
Chile
Russia
France
Spain
China
US
Japan
GB
Korea
MOBILE PHONE OWNERSHIP (%)

SELECTED MARKETS

Base
:
Total measured adult population

Source: Global
TGI

© 2010 Kantar Media

32

THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL ON MEDIA BEHAVIOURS


© 2010 Kantar Media

33

0
20
40
60
80
100
2000
-
02
2005
2009
Japan
Korea
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Russia
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Italy
Spain

TREND IN INTERNET USAGE (% OF POPULATION)

SELECTED TGI COUNTRIES


Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

34

0
20
40
60
80
100
2000
-
02
2005
2009
Japan
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Russia
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Egypt
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Italy
Spain

TREND IN MOBILE PHONE OWNERSHIP (% OF POPULATION)

SELECTED TGI COUNTRIES


Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

35

20
40
60
80
100
2005
2009
Japan
Korea
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Russia
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Egypt
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Italy
Spain

TREND IN RADIO LISTENING (% OF POPULATION)

SELECTED TGI COUNTRIES


Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

36

20
40
60
80
100
2005
2009
Japan
Korea
Czech Rep
Russia
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Canada
Italy

TREND IN NEWSPAPER READING (% OF POPULATION)

SELECTED TGI COUNTRIES


Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

37

0
20
40
60
80
100
2005
2009
Japan
Korea
Czech Rep
Russia
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Canada
Italy

TREND IN MAGAZINE READING (% OF POPULATION)

SELECTED TGI COUNTRIES


Source:
Global TGI

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

38

A PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE:


IT’S ALL ABOUT MOBILE INTERNET

© 2010 Kantar Media

39

“The biggest thing happening at the moment is
not social networking. It is the shift to
computing on
cellphones





Simon
Silvester
, Young & Rubicam

© 2010 Kantar Media

40

8
10
16
11
30
62
4
5
8
12
50
5
12
25
87
56
40
55
63
73
China
India
Ecuador
Russia
Sweden
Japan
Spain
Germany
France
GB
Internet at Home
Internet on Phone
Source: Global TGI

MOBILE INTERNET ACCESS (%)

Base
:
Total measured adult population

© 2010 Kantar Media

41

2836
433
577
1648
434
406
316
394
Pop (2009)
PCs
Internet users
SIM cards
Pop (2009)
PCs
Internet users
SIM cards
2009
2015
BRICs

US + Japan

Source:
Boston Consulting Group

PCs, INTERNET USE AND MOBILE PHONES (million)

BRICs vs. US/JAPAN: 2009

© 2010 Kantar Media

42

2836
433
577
1648
434
406
316
394
453
541
905
68
23
118
Pop (2009)
PCs
Internet users
SIM cards
Pop (2009)
PCs
Internet users
SIM cards
2009
2015
BRICs

US + Japan

Source:
Boston Consulting Group

PCs, INTERNET USE AND MOBILE PHONES (million)

BRICs vs. US/JAPAN: 2015 FORECAST

© 2010 Kantar Media

43

INDIA: A CASE IN POINT


Total population is 1.16bn, but only 81m Indians (7%) regularly
use the internet



But 507m own mobile phones



Calls can cost as little as $0.006 per minute



20m new subscribers sign up every month



3G services arrive next year

© 2010 Kantar Media

44

24
55
216
150
507
953
163
267
462
534
769
1,151
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2006
2009
2015 (est.)
India: PCs
India: SIM cards
China: PCs
China: SIM cards

PERSONAL COMPUTERS AND MOBILE PHONE SIM CARDS

INDIA AND CHINA, FORECAST TO 2015 (million)


Source:
Boston Consulting Group

© 2010 Kantar Media

45

7
9
9
10
12
15
15
18
21
21
39
47
Fortune telling
Games information
Music information
Restaurant
Entertainment / celebs news
Coupons
Maps
Sports
Ringtones
Travel information
News
Weather
Base
:
All who access internet via mobile

JAPAN: SITE TYPES VISITED


MOBILE INTERNET


% OF MOBILE INTERNET USERS


Source: ACR (TGI Japan)

© 2010 Kantar Media

46

3
3
5
7
9
9
12
17
18
57
58
Watch video
Write/read blogs
Email
Download e
-
Books
Stocks/funds
Download music
Search engines
Play games
Download ringtones
Chat/make friends
Watch news
CHINA: MOBILE INTERNET BEHAVIOURS

% OF MOBILE INTERNET USERS

Source:
CNRS (TGI China) 2009

Base
:
All who access internet via mobile

© 2010 Kantar Media

47

The macro picture: the shift of consumer power to the BRICs




The recent large
-
scale growth at the consumer level will continue




The BRICs remain a major growth opportunity for global brand owners




Watch out for the emergence of the “CIVETS”!



The rush to digital




The impact of digital on media behaviours has already been dramatic




A prediction for the future: it’s all about mobile internet




As well as being the new engines of global growth, the BRICs are the
sources of the most dynamic changes in digital consumption

CONCLUSIONS

Insights from Global TGI

Moving Targets

The New Global Consumer Landscape