Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

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28 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 10 μήνες)

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Julia Lindau

GIS Spring ’13: Assignment 7

April 12, 2013

1


1. Briefly describe your

project goals and the spatial questions it
will address.


The overall aim of this project is to determine some
of the
factors that cause or othe
rwise
affect violence within Iraq
. Because of info
rmation constraints, violence has
ended up being

limited to acts of terrorism
in this case
.
Geospatial questions my analysis will address include:



Which natural resources are most highly correlated with incidences of violence in Iraq, if
any are?

o

Has this pattern changed over time?



Are ac
ts of terrorism more common in highly den
sely populated places or
places where
these scarce resources exist?

o

Where these two factors exist, which is common, is there a way to distinguish
between


2.
Provide at least four briefly annotated examples of
similar analyses that used GIS (at least two
of these must come from peer
-
reviewed journals)
.


1.
Medina, Richard M.; Siebeneck, Laura K; and Hepner; George F. “A Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Terrorist Inciden
ts in Iraq
2004
-
2009”,
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism
, 34:11, 862
-
886, 2011
.


As this paper uses GIS to try and understand the geospatial patterns shaping and
characteristic of terrorist attacks in Iraq, it is clearly relevant to my

assignment. It conside
rs
terrorist attacks

in the country

from 2004
-
2010
.

Terrorism in Iraq is a critical manifestati
on of
post
-
occupation violence and speaks to greater conflict within the population.


An important observation
the text highlights is that terrorism is rational

and strategic; as
such “t
here are many examples of attacks or potential attacks taking place on, or around,
symbolic dates, or in response to

political or cultural triggers


(p. 864).
Considerations like these
are pertinent to my analysis, which aims to i
lluminate patterns of conflict in Iraq as they relate to
natural resources.
Therefore, i
n sum, th
is paper is helpful for me in considering how to
conceptualize patterns of conflict
and tie incidences in to larger socio
-
political trends.


2.
Hadeel AS, Mush
tak T Jabbar, Chen Xiaoling, “Remote Sensing and GIS Application
in the Detection of Environmental Degradation Indicators”
Geo
-
spatial Information Science
14:1
(39
-
47), March 2011.


This paper considers another potentially important contributor to
conflict in Iraq: land
degradation. I hypothesize that as already scarce resources like water

become

rarer, confl
ict
s
over accessing them grow
. Considering this, this

paper
is useful in several ways. First, it divides
Iraq’s land into five classes:
vegetation land, sand land, urban area, unused land, and water
bodies. I hadn’t considered

defining land in Iraq using such categories before. Second, it
demonstrates that usable natural resources

particularly vegetation land and water bodies

have
decrease
d
over time

as sand
land increases
, an important fact when discussing conflict and
resource scarcity
. F
urther
, the paper

concludes by attributing such environmental shifts to
specific

factors like population growth, drought, military activity, and others,
which influences
my thinking regarding which natural resources and population indexes in particular to map
alongside conflict.

Although the study focuses only on Basra province, the
trends and insights
found in this paper can be applied to thinking about I
raq as a whole.


3.
Jingyao Gong and Lary Gerken, “GIS in an Overview of Iraq Petroleum Geology”
Search and Discovery
10041 (2003)

http://www.searchanddiscovery.netwww.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/gong03/images/gon
g03.pdf
.

Julia Lindau

GIS Spring ’13: Assignment 7

April 12, 2013

2



This publication consists primarily of a long series of maps reflecting oil and gas
distributions across the region, with Iraq at the center, over time. Altho
ugh not strictly an
analysis
, this publication is extremely helpful to me as someone who has studied Iraq and
is
familiar with the geo
-
political implications of oil and gas in
the country
, but does not have a
background in the
geological aspects of the iss
ue. This publication contains almost 20 images
that illustrate
oil and gas distribution, of which I already have shapefiles, but also details how
accessible these sources are, the
usefulness/different types of oil and gas in different locations,
and spread
sheets regarding field size, depth, and other physical descriptors.
Such informatio
n is
important when analyzing, for example, why some natural resources that are defined the same
way impact populations in different ways.


4.
Zhang Hongxia
, “Integrated Approach
and GIS Application for Planning

and
Management toward Poverty Alleviation: A Case Study on Iraq”
nformation and Computing
Science, 2009. ICIC '09. Second International Conference on

Date of Conference: 21
-
22 May 2009

Volume: 1

Page
(s): 293

-

296

Product Type: Conference Publications


Other factors th
at can contribute to conflict are

poverty and symptoms associated with it.
Since 2003, although the country’s GDP is growing mainly due to oil exports, Iraq has struggled
to transfer th
at wealth to its citizens.
This paper uses GIS to analyze poverty distribution
throughout the country in an attempt to conceptualize approaches to poverty alleviation. The
publication’s
focus and accompanying data and maps are extremely interesting and per
tinent to
my research as I am looking for sources of conflict. Scarcity of resources may be correlated to
poverty, which is not something I brought into my analysis previously but
which, after reading
this paper, I probably should.


3.
Provide a list of th
e GIS data layers you will use plus any tabular data sets
-


include data set name, description, data source agency and URL if applicable, and key attributes
variables you will use (e.g., population, illiteracy rates, crop production, conflict type)


Name

Description

Agency

URL

Key Attributes

Settlements

Vector
-
Point

NIMA/UNOPS

http://www.iauiraq.org
/cod.asp


Village name and
location

Oil Pipelines

Vector
-
Line

CGA, Harvard

From the Tufts
Geoportal

Location of pipelines
and names of nfields
they connect

Terrorism

Points

Global
Terrorism
Database


http://www.start.umd.
edu/gtd/contact/2011


Location of attack,
date,
type,
cas
ualties,
perpetrator…

dobd
G

m潬yg潮

bqe wurich

http:LLwwwKicr⹥t桺Kch
L摡taL潴herLgreg


aistrib畴ion of et桮hc
gr潵灳

oivers

m潬yg潮s

kational
de潳灡tial
f湴elli来nce
http://hgl.harvard.edu:80
80/HGL/jsp/HGL.jsp?ac
Location and size of
bodies of water

Julia Lindau

GIS Spring ’13: Assignment 7

April 12, 2013

3


Agency

tion=VColl&VCollNam
e=VMAP1WATRCRSA

Oil

and Gas

Fields

Polygon

American
Geological
Institute

http://hgl.harvard.edu:
8080/HGL/jsp/HGL.js
p?action=VColl&VCo
llName=GLB_OILGA
S

Location of oil and gas
fields

Extraction pts

Vector
-
point

NIMA

http://hgl.harvard.edu:80
80/HGL/jsp/HGL.jsp?ac
tion=VColl&VCollNam
e=GLB_EXTRCT

Location of oil
extraction points

Land

Cover

Raster

Global Land
Cover

http://bioval.jrc.ec.eur
opa.eu/products/glc20
00/products.php


Descriptors of
different types of
landcover

* Hoping to have more up to date shape file of ethnic distribution for final project.


4.
The data creation, processing, and/or analysis steps that you expect perform
-

you can provide
this as a numbered set of steps or in a flow diagram.



-
Ensure I have

all data layers organized on my H drive in appropriate format

-
Import all data layers

into ArcGIS

-
Clip all files so they are limited to Iraq’s boundary using “clip” tool

-
Project all files to the appropriate coordinate system

-
Join

terrorism data
to the
“settlements” shapefile to make the data usable in ArcGIS

-
Separate terrorism incidences by year using “select by attributes” tool

-
Use “kernel density”

tool on terrorism data to look at conflict hotspots in Iraq per year

-
Use “buffer” tool on terrorism da
ta to examine

which

scarce natural resources

specifically oil
and water (and maybe certain types of land cover?)

fall within a certain close radius

-
Use “proximity” tool to determine distance between conflict hotspots and oil fields/extra


5.
The products

you hope to include on your poster (e.g., maps, table)


In addition to my written explanation and analysis, I plan to present several maps. At this
point I do not thin
k I will use any tables. The particular maps I plan to include in my final project
are:



Map of terrorist activities over land usage



Map of
terrorist activities,

ethnic makeup
, and populated places



Map displaying available natural resources; change over time (early 1900’s dataset and
2003 dataset)



Map of increased number of extraction points/o
ther physical manifestations of oil
industry over time (if possible to find earlier shape file)