Water Services Forum for tariffs 10 Oct 2011 - randwater.co.za

heehawultraΜηχανική

22 Φεβ 2014 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 7 μήνες)

119 εμφανίσεις

Rand Water


Capital Expenditure
Programme

John Critchley


2012/2013 Bulk Potable Water Tariff Setting Forum

10 October 2011

CONTENT


1.
Demand growth forecast




2.


Augmentation plan to 2030




3. Capital budget forecast





2

Forecast demand growth to 2030









3


Natural population growth, inward migration,
AIDS, service backlogs, system losses


Domestic usage


70% of total

Factors affecting
demand growth


Estimated population in 2010


11.7 million


Projected population for 2030


14.7 million


Annual rate of growth (%) continues to decline

Population
demographic model


Supply 75% of total demand to three metros


Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Tshwane


Metros forecast
ave

growth of 2% per annum

Questionnaire model
(major customers)


Forecast peak day for 2015


5300 Ml/d


Forecast peak day for 2030


6900 Ml/d


Increase of 1600 Ml/d over 15 years

Growth in demand
(peak =
ave

+ 25%)

Customer

Historical demand

Projected Demand

Growth

Code

Name

1995

2000

2006

2010

2015

2020

2025


2006 to
2025





Ml/d

Ml/d

Ml/d

Ml/d

Ml/d

Ml/d

Ml/d

%





















9000

Johannesburg Water

852

1061

1295

1427

1623

1795

1922

2.10%

9001

Ekurhuleni

599

631

782

866

972

1072

1162

2.11%

9002

City of Tshwane

399

414

499

553

615

679

738

2.08%

9003

Emfuleni

159

182

182

197

216

235

253

1.75%

9004

Mogale

City

60

53

64

68

73

79

85

1.50%

9005

Metsimaholo

48

46

51

53

55

58

61

1.00%

9006

Rustenburg

34

45

66

75

87

100

116

3.00%

9007

Govan

Mbeki

45

40

50

54

60

66

73

2.00%

9008

Midvaal

12

30

23

34

46

48

50

4.25%

9009

Merafong

23

21

23

24

26

27

28

1.00%

9010

Randfontein

21

26

22

23

24

25

27

1.00%

9011

Westonaria

12

11

14

15

16

16

17

1.00%

9012

Lesedi

11

11

13

13

14

16

17

1.50%

9013

Ngwathe

0

3

5

5

6

7

8

3.00%

9014

Kungwini

0

0

9

19

30

48

69

11.36%

9015

Delmas

0

2

2

12

14

16

19

12.82%

9016

Tshwane

0

54

64

68

73

78

83

1.40%

9017

Royal
Bafokeng

0

0

7

8

9

11

14

4.00%

9019

Thembisile

0

0

2

25

28

30

34

16.30%



Mining

219

209

229

242

261

281

303

1.50%



All other users

34

34

44

49

57

66

76

3.00%



Meters < 100 mm

13

13

13

14

14

15

16

1.00%



Total

2540

2886

3457

3843

4318

4769

5172

2.14%

4

Rand Water’s infrastructure planning is informed by demand
projections provided by municipalities

5

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Demands (AADD in Ml/d)


Comparison of demand projections

Historical
Questionnaire
Demographic most likely
Demographic high growth
Demographic low growth
D
roughts

?

Demand growth scenarios & risks

Peak?

6

7

Primary system


1600 Ml/d growth

Palmiet system


600 Ml/d growth

Mapleton system


300 Ml/d growth

Eikenhof system


400 Ml/d growth

Zwartkopjes system


300 Ml/d growth

Augmenting for 2015 to 2030 cycle

Projected growth in peak day demand = 1600 Ml/d over 15 years

Growth split between four booster systems

North west Jhb

West Rand

Rustenburg

Central Jhb

Southern areas

Northern Jhb

Tshwane

Madibeng

Eastern Tshwane

Ekurhuleni

Mpumalanga

Augmenting the network

Peak demand by pumping station











8

Station

Design
capacity

Projected peak day demands (Ml/d)

2015

2020

2025

2030

Primary System

Zuikerbosch

3900

3910

4500

4030

4550

Vereeniging

1400

1400

1400

1400

1400

Clarens

Scheme

Nil

Nil

1000

1000

Booster systems

Palmiet

1870

1880

2100

2300

2500

Mapleton

960

920

1040

1140

1240

Eikenhof

2000

1400

1550

1700

1840

Zwartkopjes

800

700

760

820

880

CONTENT






2.


Augmentation plan to 2030








9

2009 Additional Water Supply Scheme









10


Augment primary capacity, with associated
major pipelines and booster pumping capacity


Package of 10 linked major projects for
backbone infrastructure


Ensure sufficient
organisational

focus to
achieve cyclical peak in engineering workload

2009
Additional
Water Supply
(AWS) Scheme


Anchor project for the 2009 AWS Scheme


Purifies and pumps into the network additional
1200 Ml/d after completion of phase 2

Station 5 at
Zuikerbosch


Providing for 2015 to 2030 augmentation cycle

11

Primary system


1600 Ml/d growth

Palmiet system


600 Ml/d growth

Mapleton system


300 Ml/d growth

Eikenhof system


400 Ml/d growth

Zwartkopjes system


300 Ml/d growth

Augmenting for 2015 to 2030 cycle

Projected growth in peak day demand = 1600 Ml/d over 15 years

Growth split between four booster systems

North west Jhb

West Rand

Rustenburg

Central Jhb

Southern areas

Northern Jhb

Tshwane

Madibeng

Eastern Tshwane

Ekurhuleni

Mpumalanga

Augmenting the network

12

BG3 raw water
pipeline

9 km x 3500 mm

R165 million budget for
2011/12


Station 5 at
Zuikerbosch

1200 Ml/d capacity in two phases

B19 raw water pipeline

R28 million budget for 2011/12

13

Primary Supply System Augmentation

BG3 Raw Water Pipeline

9 km x 3500 mm diameter

14

Purification

Primary Supply System Augmentation

Primary supply system augmentation


Station 5


1200 Ml/d capacity


first phase by 2016


Upgrade system 1 & 2

o
Replace filter block 2b


250 Ml/d

o
Add 200 Ml/d sedimentation capacity


Upgrade System 3

o
Add 400 Ml/d sedimentation capacity


Upgrade System 4

o
Add 400 Ml/d sedimentation capacity

o
Add 250 Ml/d filtration capacity


Typical motivation

o
Replace older technology

o
Improve standby capacity (> 10% at peak)

o
Balance pumping capacity









15

Zuikerbosch

pumping station


projects approved by Board

Primary supply system augmentation

Upgrade of purification capacity at
Zuikerbosch

PS

System 5

System 3
upgrade

System 2
upgrade

System 4
upgrade

Primary supply system augmentation

Upgrade of purification capacity at Vereeniging PS

Additional 225 Ml/d
sedimentation tank

Upgrade Filter
House 1

Upgrade Filter
House 2

1

2

3

4

18

Primary system


1600 Ml/d growth

Palmiet system


600 Ml/d growth

Mapleton system


300 Ml/d growth

Eikenhof system


400 Ml/d growth

Zwartkopjes system


300 Ml/d growth

Augmenting for 2015 to 2030 cycle

Projected growth in peak day demand = 1600 Ml/d over 15 years

Growth split between four booster systems

North west Jhb

West Rand

Rustenburg

Central Jhb

Southern areas

Northern Jhb

Tshwane

Madibeng

Eastern Tshwane

Ekurhuleni

Mpumalanga

Augmenting the network

Palmiet

supply system augmentation


Projects motivated

o
Item A1


Brakfontein

to
Madibeng

H34, H35, H36 pipelines

o
Item A15


Partial replacement of
Lyttelton

to Rosslyn H14 pipeline

o
Item A11


Zuikerbosch

to
Palmiet

B17/B18 pipeline

o
Item A8


Engine Room 3b at
Palmiet

pumping station

o
Item A3


Palmiet

to
Klipfontein

O6 pipeline

o
Item A2


Klipfontein

to
Brakfontein

H39 pipeline

o
Item A10


Kwaggaspoort

to
Gomsand

H38 pipeline


Projects to be motivated

o
Additional 100 Ml reservoir at
Hartbeesthoek









19

Northern & Central/Eastern areas


600 Ml/d growth from 2015 to 2030

Additional Engine Room


600 Ml/d capacity

Total 150 km pipeline between 600 mm and 2100 mm diameter

20

B17
Zuikerbosch

-

Palmiet

pipeline

R276 million budget for 2011/12

Engine Room 3b at
Palmiet

station

600 Ml/d operational capacity

H39
Klipfontein



Brakfontein

pipeline

O6
Palmiet



Klipfontein

pipeline

21

Primary system


1600 Ml/d growth

Palmiet system


600 Ml/d growth

Mapleton system


300 Ml/d growth

Eikenhof system


400 Ml/d growth

Zwartkopjes system


300 Ml/d growth

Augmenting for 2015 to 2030 cycle

Projected growth in peak day demand = 1600 Ml/d over 15 years

Growth split between four booster systems

North west Jhb

West Rand

Rustenburg

Central Jhb

Southern areas

Northern Jhb

Tshwane

Madibeng

Eastern Tshwane

Ekurhuleni

Mpumalanga

Augmenting the network

Mapleton supply system augmentation


Projects motivated

o
Item A4


Vlakfontein

to
Mamelodi

R5 pipeline (phased)

o
Item A18


Additional engine room at Mapleton pumping station

o
Item A16


Van
Dyk’s

Park to
Rynfield

S4 pipeline

o
Item A5


Van
Dyk’s

Park to
Brakpan

Reservoir L17 pipeline

o
Bloemendal

pumping station upgrade (phase 1)


Projects to be motivated

o
Augmentation of
Brakpan



Bloemendal



Wildebeesfontein

route
(existing and potential new customers)

o
Additional 100 Ml reservoir at
Bronberg









22

Northern & Eastern areas


300 Ml/d growth from 2015 to 2030

Additional Engine Room


300 Ml/d capacity

Total 90 km of pipeline between 1000 mm and 2100 mm diameter

23

R5
Vlakfontein



Mamelodi

pipeline

R67 million budget for 2011/12

L17 Van
Dyk’s

Park


Brakpan

Res pipeline

R29 million budget for 2011/12

Engine room at Mapleton station

300 Ml/d additional capacity

S4 van
Dyk’s

Park


Rynfield

pipeline

CONTENT










3. Capital budget forecast





24


Continuing business


R8.1
bn

over 5 years


Pipeline
50%
Purification
30%
Pumping
18%
Reservoirs
2%
Page
25

Capital expenditure split between main plant categories

SUMMARY OF RAND WATER FORECAST CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FOR THE PERIOD 2011 TO 2016 INCLUDING GROWTH PROJECTS
Motivation
IDR
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
A
Augment infrastructure
1
Brakfontein - Madibeng system
Palmiet
2005
76
8
0
0
0
0
4
Vlakfontein - Mamelodi pipeline
Mapleton
2005
82
67
50
50
0
0
6
BG3 pipeline
Primary
2005
166
165
0
0
0
0
15
H14 pipeline partial re-route
Palmiet
2007/8
44
1
0
0
0
0
19
Upgrade N7, N8 pipelines
Mapleton
63
55
60
0
0
0
Subtotal existing augmentation projects
431
296
110
50
0
0
2
Klipfontein to Brakfontein pipeline
Palmiet
2009
0
1
0
50
100
100
3
Palmiet - Klipfontein augmentation
Palmiet
2009
1
2
13
100
188
150
5
L17 Van Dyk's Park - Brakpan Res
Mapleton
2007
30
29
20
20
0
0
7
Sedimentation tanks at Zuikerbosch
Primary
2008/9
3
42
105
100
100
100
8
Palmiet Engine Room 3b
Palmiet
2009
1
3
90
90
90
76
9
Weltevreden - Cosmo City pipeline
Eikenhof
2009
2
3
20
20
20
0
10
Kwagaspoort - Gomsand pipeline
Palmiet
2007
1
1
30
30
30
8
11
Zuikerbosch to Palmiet pipeline
Palmiet
2008
25
276
250
150
150
49
12
Zuikerbosch filter blocks
Primary
2008/9
0
20
130
130
120
100
13
Variable speed drives
All
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
B11 duplication & associated works
Primary
2009
5
52
40
40
30
30
16
Van Dyk Park - Rynfield duplication
Mapleton
2009
0
1
75
75
50
25
17
Zuikerbosch scheme
Primary
2009
0
20
200
400
400
500
18
Mapleton station upgrade
Mapleton
2009
0
0
0
0
70
100
20
Upgrade Zwartkopjes - Meyer's Hill system
Zwartkopjes
2009
1
5
70
50
50
0
21
Zuikerbosch - Slangfontein pipeline
Mapleton
2009
0
1
0
0
0
125
22
Waterval to Weltevreden pipeline
Eikenhof
0
0
0
0
0
30
23
Amanzimtoti expansion - phase 1 & 2
Primary
0
20
20
0
0
0
24
Other augmentation projects
All
60
80
100
100
100
100
Subtotal new augmentation projects
129
556
1163
1355
1498
1493
Total for new and existing augmentation projects
560
852
1273
1405
1498
1493
B
Rehabilitation
1
Cathodic Protection
All
30
32
20
20
20
0
2
Zwartkopjes Forest Hill system
Zwartkopjes
2005
2
0
20
20
0
0
5
Roodepoort booster system upgrade
Eikenhof
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
O2 pipeline + O1/G25 pipeline
Palmiet
2006
10
7
10
0
0
0
7
Zwartkopjes pipework upgrade
Zwartkopjes
34
6
0
0
0
0
8
Central sludge 2 at Zb upgrade
Primary
35
16
20
0
0
0
15
Zk disinfection plant upgrade
Zwartkopjes
25
11
0
0
0
0
Subtotal existing rehabilitation projects
136
72
70
40
20
0
3
Zwartkopjes - East Rand system
Zwartkopjes
2007
100
45
40
40
40
40
4
B7 pipeline
Eikenhof
47
120
0
0
0
0
9
Vereeniging upgrade
Primary
1
1
50
50
50
48
10
Vereeniging - Zwartkopjes system
Zwartkopjes
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
B6 pipeline
Palmiet
0
5
50
25
0
0
12
Bitumen replacement
All
0
0
20
20
20
20
13
BG1, BG2 pipelines
Primary
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
B1, B2 pipelines
Zwartkopjes
0
1
0
0
0
30
17
Zuikerbosch filter house 1 upgrade
Primary
2008
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
Other rehabilitation projects
All
275
292
100
100
100
100
Subtotal new rehabilitation projects
423
464
260
235
210
238
Total for new and existing rehabilitation projects
559
536
330
275
230
238
Total for RW bulk water supply system
1119
1388
1603
1680
1728
1731
C
GROWTH PROJECTS
Investments
1
Emfuleni bulk sanitation scheme
Sebokeng WWTW upgrade
0
75
75
75
75
Upgrade selected sewage pump stations
15
25
30
20
20
New regional WWTW scheme
0
75
75
100
100
2
Mpumalanga municipal support
Upgrade bulk water systems
0
15
30
50
70
Upgrade bulk sanitation systems
0
15
30
50
70
CAPEX
4
Co-generation
90
200
100
Total for growth projects
105
405
340
295
335
D
Movable assets
60
55
50
50
50
50
Total
1179
1548
2058
2070
2073
2116
Project (1)
System (2)
Forecast cashflow (Rm) as at 21 April 2011
26

Capital budget for 2011/12









27


Total budget


R1388 million


Augmentation projects


R852 million


section A


Rehabilitation projects


R536 million


section B

Annual budget
2011/12


Expenditure planned on 330 projects


Top 20 projects have total planned expenditure of R1 billion


200 projects have planned expenditure of R1 million or less

Project distribution
by value


Cover replacement, upgrading, extending life of plant to
maintain existing capacity and meet standards of water quality,
health, safety, environment (excluding maintenance)

Rehabilitation
projects


Zwartkopjes



East Rand system: pipeline replacement


Rehabilitation of pre
-
stressed concrete pipelines


Upgrade/replacement of switchgear, pumps, motors,
valves, instrumentation, buildings

Rehabilitation
projects

Capital expenditure forecast









28


Total budget


R1388 million


Augmentation projects


R852 million


section A


Rehabilitation projects


R536 million


section B

Annual budget
2011/12


Total planned capital expenditure for 2011 to 2016
business cycle = R8 billion


Projected R6 billion for augmentation projects

Business plan


Estimated current asset replacement value of R70 billion


Forecast average demand growth of 2% per annum to
2030

Cost drivers


Ongoing expenditure of R1.5 to R2 billion per annum,
limited by business constraints


Funding for
augmentation and
rehabilitation

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
R
million

Financial year

Capital expenditure forecast

Non
-
infrastructure alternatives


Demand growth from Vaal River System is exceeding ability to augment
raw water supply capacity (potential severe drought restrictions)


Each supply augmentation is increasingly expensive, and pushes up raw
water tariffs





DWA has set targets for reduction of wastage


Project 15%


Studies indicate > R700 million per annum over 5 years to meet targets
for Gauteng Province


Commitment in theory not matched by practical results



Tariff increases for end consumers can help moderate growth, but
don’t directly attack the main reasons for wastage









30

Water Demand Management (WDM)

Balance between supply and demand

Non
-
infrastructure alternatives


Potential for deferred capital expenditure, but:


Major projects have long lead times


Portions of existing infrastructure approaching full utilisation at peak
periods


Require ‘headroom’ to take major infrastructure items or sub
-
systems
out of service for rehabilitation


Proposed response:


Liaise closely with major customers on demand growth reduction


Continue with planned projects through preliminary stages, including
route selection, EIA, landowner negotiations


Review demand growth trends and condition assessment of existing
infrastructure prior to construction ‘go’










31

Rand Water response to potential demand growth reduction


THANK YOU







32