Technology for the Prosperity and

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The Future and Challenges of
Technology for


the Prosperity and
Well
-
Being of the World

Michael Lightner, PhD

2005 IEEE President
-
Elect


CONFIEP 2005

August 9

Lima, Peru

Welcome and Disclaimer


It is an honor to be here and I thank



Our wonderful hosts and


You for taking time to meet with us


I am not an economist, finance specialist or
social scientist


However, I will talk about aspects of these areas


I am not an expert on all areas of engineering


However I will talk about various areas


The positions and points I discuss are
personal and not the view or policy of IEEE


Outline


What technology offers


Emerging Technologies


Historical Context and Current data


Challenges

What Technology Offers


Possibilities


Doing things differently, better


Improving standards of living


Power, water, food, health, community


HOPE


For a better world, better future


However, technology CANNOT deliver on any of
these


Technology together with business, government,
society, MAY be able to deliver


The promise of technology, unlike the promise
of science, lives, breathes, succeeds and fails
within the fabric of our socio
-
economic systems


If this is ignored nothing is achieved

Emerging Technologies


Before we examine the difficult
issues raised in the last slide


Let us examine some emerging
technologies


Something engineers love to do

Emerging Technologies


10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World



Technology Review's

pick 10 emerging technologies that
will affect our lives and work in revolutionary ways, whether
next year or next decade.


Universal Translation


Synthetic Biology


Nanowires


Bayesian Machine Learning


T
-
Rays


Distributed Storage


RNA Interference


Power Grid Control


Microfluidic Optical Fibers


Personal Genomics

Source:

Technology Review,

Feb 2004

Emerging Technologies





Biotechnology


Biotechnology,
biomedical
,
microfluidics (lab on a chip),
pharmaceuticals, protein
engineering, systems biology,
biology


Design engineering


Computer aided design, design
automation, microtechnology,
semiconductor technology,
semiconductors, chip design


Internet


Internet, Web, global sharing and
processing of information


Mobile


Communications (WiFi), mobile
technology, radio frequency
communications, wireless, wireless
and mobile devices


Nanotechnology


Tools


Computer (PDA, handheld), organic
display technology, Interconnectivity
of products


Power


low power technologies,
photovoltaics (power), power
electronics, energy products


Systems


Computer systems reliability,
embedded systems, question
answering systems (search
technology)


Data storage technology


Security


Cryptography, privacy wrt
information gathering, surveillance
technology


Bandwidth


Sensors

Sources:
IEEE Spectrum
, Nov 2004 , “Most important technology for the next decade” and “10 tech
companies for next decade”;
Trend Consortium
, Sep 2004, “24
-
month future scan: technologies that will
impact business over the next two years”; and
Business 2.0
, Sep 2004, “Seven new technologies”

“10 Emerging Technologies that will
change your world”


Airborne Networks



Quantum Wires





Silicon Photonics






Metabolomics



Magnetic Resonance
Force Microscopy



Universal Memory



Bacterial Factories





Enviromatics





Cell Phone Viruses








Biomechatronics






Technology Review May 2005

Biomechatronics


Combines robotics
with the nervous
system to make
artificial limbs work
like the real thing


Microprocessors &
sensors monitor
user’s gait

Universal memory


Nanotubes make
ultradense data
storage possible


Within 20 years you
will put all the DVDs
ever made on your
laptop


Bacterial Factories


Changing a microbe’s
metabolism could yield a
cheap malaria drug


Reduces the cost of
treatment to < 25 cents


Understanding cell
metabolism is leading to
new methods of treating
major diseases such as
cancer


May also lead to major
tools for environmental
clean
-
up and toxic waste
management




Quantum wires


Wires spun from
carbon nanotubes
could carry electricity
farther & more
efficiently


Might transform the
electrical power grid



Historical Context


It is important to examine how major
technological changes impacted the world


We will use the work of Carlota Perez,
‘Technological Revolutions and Financial
Captial’, 2003, Elgar Publishing, as a basis.


The following figures/data are from this book


Related to the Schumpeterian school of invention
and innovation


Next we will look at various demographic
trends and finally move to the challenges for
today


Technological
Revolution

New technologies or
industries

New/redefined
infrastructures

Industrial Revolution

Mechanized cotton industry

Canals and Waterways

Age of Steam and
Railways

Steam engines and
machinery, railways, iron
and coal mining

Railways, postal service,
telegraph, great ports,
city gas

Age of Steel,
Electricity and Heavy
Manufacturing

Cheap steel, heavy
chemistry and civil
engineering, electrical
equipment manufacturing

Worldwide telephone
and telegraph, electrical
power networks

Age of Oil, the
Automobile and Mass
Production

Mass produced
automobiles, cheap oil and
fuels, refrigerated and
frozen foods

Universal electricity,
worldwide analog
communications, major
transportations networks

Age of Information
and
Telecommunications

Cheap microelectronics,
computers, software,
telecommunications,
computer
-

aided biotech

Worldwide digital
telecommunications,
internet, email

Perez’s Model


Points to specific countries for initial
development, then slower diffusion


Previous revolutions were set in a much
less global economy


Consider the ‘world is flat’ phenomena
reported by Thomas Friedman


We don’t know if the model will hold in a
much more distributed technical and
financial environment


Of course, the question is, what will be the
next big ‘age’? (nano/bio/cognitive?)


The real question is whether there may be
more than one in the global environment

Perez’s Model


We are concerned with global impact and
prosperity


The installation phase does NOT provide for
global dissemination


It is concentrated in small number of countries


The deployment phase and the end of the era
is when we can expect the developing
countries to gain from the new
technologies/technical revolution


One concern in examining this type of
macroeconomic model is that we lose sight of
the improvements that can be made today by
easy technical improvements

Aspects of Current Environment


Technology diffusion


Population demographics


Four Countries Economists Watch


Job predictions

Rate of Technological Change

(
years for the technology to spread to a quarter of the U.S. population
)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Auto-mobile
Telephone
Radio
PC
Cell phone
Internet
Years
Source: National Innovation Initiative

World Population: 1950
-
2050



The planet's population
continues to explode: from 2.6
billion in 1950, to 6.2 in 2002 and
9.1 billion in 2050


Less developed countries (LDCs)
dominate the list of the world's
ten most populous countries and
will drive population growth for
the next five decades. LDCs in
Asia and Oceania excluding India
and China are expected to be
more populous than any other
region by 2050.


The largest percentage increase
in population size over the next
five decades is projected to occur
in Sub
-
Saharan Africa.

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2010
2025
2050
Billions
More Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-

Population Division,
International Programs Center, International Data Base

Population for Selected Countries


0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
China
Japan
India
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United
Kingdom
United
States
Billions
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2010
2025
2050
42

42

41

39

39

36

32

24

39

Median age

(2002
-
03)

In 2002, China is the most populous country in the world and
India, the second most populous. India gains population
rapidly and eclipses China in total population in 2037.


Half of the world’s more developed countries (MDCs),
including those in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet
Union, are expected to experience population declines over
the next 50 years. The United States is the only MDC expected
to be among the ten most populous countries in 2050.


MDCs will experience aging populations, while LDCs will have
a “youth bulge.”
Nearly 50% of the world’s population could
be less than 18 years old by 2020.


Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-

Population Division,
International Programs Center, International Data Base

Countries Economist Watch


Brazil


Russia


India


China

Brazil



Possessing large and well
-
developed agricultural,
mining, manufacturing and service sectors, Brazil's
economy outweighs that of all other South
American countries and is expanding its presence
in world markets


An industrial power with the largest population in
Latin America and the Caribbean


Brazil has made big strides in reducing social and
economic inequality, which are both cause and
consequence of the poverty that continues to afflict
millions of people in the country


With one of the largest hydropower sectors in the
world, Brazil is a country for the future


But the country's energy infrastructure needs some
repair



The bulk of foreign direct investment in Brazil is
going into banking, electricity, and
telecommunications

Russia




An emerging
-
market economy that manages to produce more
than 200,000 science grads a year


Students are well
-
trained in computer science, physics,
mathematics, and engineering. Growing numbers are being
snapped up by some of the world's biggest tech companies.


One of Russia's surprising survival stories is the resurgence of the
country's once
-
superb, State
-
funded scientific education system.


Russia's universities and scientific institutes are slowly adapting to
the harsh realities of a market economy, by tapping private funding
and research contracts and forming partnerships with international
heavyweights such as Intel, IBM, and Cisco Systems. Meanwhile,
enrollment in science courses is rising once again.


Government spending on science is up by 90% since 1998,
although it remains a fraction of what it was under communism.
Meanwhile, private finance now makes up around 45% of all
research funding.


Intel already employs 500 Russian engineers at research centers
in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Nizhny Novgorod, and plans to
recruit 500 more this year

Source:
Business Week
, August 2004

Russia


Low salaries are a problem


A postdoctoral researcher at Okayama
University in Japan would earn $3,700 a month
in Japan, while an assistant professor in
Russia collects a mere $100 a month;
practitioners earn less


Even with large number of student
graduates, almost two
-
thirds of Russia's
scientists are over 40


If current trends continue, 42% will be over 60
by 2010


India




GDP growth rate is among the
fastest in the world, and
investment, both domestic and
foreign, contributes over 20%of
GDP.


India is in the midst of a
demographic transition with a
rising proportion of its
population of ‘working age’
(15
-
59 years).


The country is known for
software development and
growth in knowledge
-
based
industries, as well as a center
for the outsourcing of services.

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Engineers

IT professionals

Source: National Association of Software and
Service Companies (NASCOM)

Output of Degree Level Engineering
and IT Professionals in India

(In thousands)

Other Information on India


India is capitalizing on its large numbers of well
-
educated people skilled in the English language
to become a major exporter of software services
and software workers.


India has more than 250 universities (over 900
colleges) and engineering colleges providing
computer education at the degree/diploma level.


The output of trained engineering and IT human power
increased since 1985, reached 130,000 in 2000 and is
estimated at 300,000 in 2004


Other Information on India



Global technology companies, including Intel,
Microsoft, Cisco Systems and Samsung Electronics
are increasingly turning their India operations into
centers for research and development (R&D)


The companies are taking advantage of the high
-
level
engineering skills and the innovative working
capabilities in India. They are investing to expand their
R&D centers. [India Business Insights Dec 2004]


Microsoft has opened its 28
-
acre campus in Hyderabad and
intends to open a research campus in Bangalore in 2005


Intel's development center in Bangalore has 2,400
professionals.


SSA Global is planning to invest $12 million during Jan
-
Sep
2005 in its Hyderabad R&D hub


Samsung Electronics has two R&D centers in Bangalore and
Noida.


China




China has come of economic age [
Business
Week Online
, Nov 2004]


China's total volume of imports and exports
will reach $1 trillion in 2004. [
The Journal of
Commerce
, Sept 20, 2004]


China's strong economic growth is driven
by a continuing surge in foreign direct
investment. Today, more than 400 of the
world's 500 biggest companies have a China
presence. [
Institutional Investor
, Sept 2004]


China’s educational system

according to
it’s Ministry of Education


has:


1,984 higher education institutes


3.35 million higher education students with an
additional 270,000 enrolled for post
-
graduate
study


400,000 Chinese nationals studying overseas


China’s use of electronic media has
exploded. In 1997, 620,000 people in China
had Internet accounts and in 2002 that
figure stood at 59.1 million. This puts China
second in the world for Net connectivity.
China may pass the United States in the
number of Internet users within two years; it
already leads the world in cell phone users.

Other Information on China




China's booming domestic private companies have become
the backbone of the country's science and technology
industry as their numbers and assets increase


China overtook the United States in 2003 as the top global
recipient of foreign direct investment


Google, Yahoo!, and eBay have all made recent
acquisitions in China, and all are looking to boost growth in
a region where the upside is huge compared to their home
markets.


Every tech company with global ambitions knows that it will
wind up being either a partner with China's emerging tech
sector or else its rival


Following a boom in domestic sales of telecommunications
equipment, Chinese companies are focusing on the
development of their foreign operations and becoming a
major player in the European and North American markets

Comments on the BRIC


From the perspective of the Perez model
these countries are working in the
deployment phase of various technologies
-

taking advantage of golden ages.


They are not the grounds for a new
revolution


Next technological revolution may have
disruptive impact on their infrastructure


Consider South Korea


Acknowledged leader in cloning technology, but
not on the typical shorter term economic watch
list

U.S. Employment Projections:

2002
-

2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of
Labor, projects future job growth by industry and occupation.
The 10
-
year projections were published in the February 2004
issue of
Monthly Labor Review
. The BLS projections are
based on assumptions of economic growth and model
-
based
findings that connect the past to the future.


Projections for engineers, scientists and computer
-
related
occupations of interest to the IEEE are covered in the
following two slides.

Projected U.S. Occupational Growth for
Selected Categories: 2002
-
2012



-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Astronomers and physicists
Atmospheric and space scientists
Microbiologists
Geoscientists
Biochemists and biophysicists
Chemists and materials
Biological scientists
Environmental scientists
Medical scientists
All other engineers
Aerospace engineers
Petroleum engineers
Agricultural engineers
Chemical engineers
Marine engineers and naval
Mining and geological engineers
Nuclear engineers
Materials engineers
Biomedical engineers
Computer hardware engineers
Mechanical engineers
Electrical and electronics engineers
Civil engineers
Environmental engineers
Engineering managers
Industrial engineers
All other computer specialists
Computer and info. scientists,
Database administrators
Computer programmers
Network and computer sys. admin.
Computer and info. sys.managers
Network sys. and data comm. analysts
Software engineers, systems software
Computer support specialists
Software engineers, applications
Computer sys. analysts
Total occupations
(% Change)

Computer occupations

Engineers

Life and physical scientists

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art5full.pdf

Three of the 10 fastest growing occupations are
computer
-
related occupations. Network systems
and data communications analysts will grow
57% and software engineering occupations
(applications and systems software) will grow
46%.

Engineering occupations are projected to grow
7% with environmental engineers being the
fastest growing (38%) followed by biomedical
engineers (26%).

Electrical and electronics
engineering jobs and computer hardware
engineering jobs are each projected to grow 6%.

-50
0
50
100
150
200
Astronomers and physicists
Atmospheric and space scientists
Microbiologists
Geoscientists
Biochemists and biophysicists
Chemists and materials
Biological scientists
Environmental scientists
Medical scientists
All other engineers
Aerospace engineers
Petroleum engineers
Agricultural engineers
Chemical engineers
Marine engineers and naval
Mining and geological engineers
Nuclear engineers
Materials engineers
Biomedical engineers
Computer hardware engineers
Mechanical engineers
Electrical and electronics engineers
Civil engineers
Environmental engineers
Engineering managers
Industrial engineers
All other computer specialists
Computer and info. scientists,
Database administrators
Computer programmers
Network and computer sys. admin.
Computer and info. sys.managers
Network sys. and data comm. Analysts
Software engineers, systems software
Computer support specialists
Software engineers, applications
Computer sys. analysts
Total occupations
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art5full.pdf

Projected U.S. Occupational Growth for
Selected Categories: 2002
-
2012



(Growth in Numbers, in Thousands)

Computer occupations

Engineers

Life and physical scientists

Computer systems analysts will add
184,000 jobs and software engineers
(applications) will add 179,000.
These are among the occupations
with the largest projected numerical
job growth between 2002 and 2012.
About 17,000 EE jobs and 5,000
computer engineering jobs will be
added over the next decade.


Major Point


These projections miss a major point


The number of electrical and
computer engineering jobs as well as
information science jobs to be
created in the next SEVEN years in
the U.S. is less than the number of
graduates in these areas in India and
China THIS year.

Challenges


We all believe that technology can
generate potential solutions to major
global problems


HOWEVER, for the technical solutions to
actually impact the lives of people we
need the interaction and synergy of


Global companies


Economic systems
-

globally interrelated


Standards
-

global


Technical creations
-

global


Social systems


National governments


Multidisciplinary


In technology we often talk about the
multi
-
/trans
-
disciplinary nature of modern
day engineering


In fact, it is MUCH more complicated


Engineering lives and succeeds within a
socio
-
economic system that is becoming
completely global


Engineers need to partner in a much more
complicated and synergistic way with the
other key players in order to make sure
that the promise of engineering becomes
a reality

Engineers


You cannot be a cog in a machine


You are part of the solution


Partner with government, business,
academics


This is the power of technical
entrepreneurship and the way to create a
technical revolution


It is the key to HOPE for the serious
problems facing the world today