What’s New in
Uplift Optimizer 5.3
Patrick Surry
Product Manager
USA: 1 866 793 4279
Austria 0800 28 1673
Belgium: 0800 505 60
Canada: 1 866 270 8076
India 000800 100 6558
Republic of Ireland: 1800 944 607
Netherlands 0800 0233 593
Norway: 800 164 90
Spain 900 801 508
Sweden: 0200 125 679
UK: 0808
109 1441
International: +44 20 8609
1476
Access code
131716
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Starting
Now
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
2
How to ask a Question
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
3
What’s New in
Uplift Optimizer 5.3
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
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What’s New in Uplift Optimizer 5.3
•
Presenter
:
Patrick Surry
•
Audience
:
Current users of Uplift Optimizer
•
Goal:
Highlight the key new features and functionality
provided in version 5.3
•
Format:
A live demo with some slides
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
5
Interaction Optimizer
™
Campaign Manager
™
Portrait Solutions
Sales
Service
Customer
Analytic
Insight
Analytic
Insight
Your CRM
•
Siebel
•
Microsoft
•
Salesforce.com
Marketing
Marketing
Channels
Campaign
Management
Campaign
Management
Interaction
Management
Uplift
Interaction
Management
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
6
Expert Opinion on Portrait’s Uplift Solution
“
Telenor
will realize an 11
-
fold increase in uplift campaign
ROI when compared with existing programs”
–
Gartner, “Magic Quadrant for Customer Data
-
Mining Applications 2008” , Gareth Herschel
“Innovative”
“Marketers can now add uplift modeling to
the arsenal of tools”
-
Forrester Research “Optimizing Customer Retention Programs”, Suresh
Vittal
-
Forrester Research “Optimizing Customer Retention Programs”, Suresh
Vittal
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
8
Uplift
Modeling
: Core Idea
•
Traditional targeting is based on
modeling
outcomes, not
uplift
in outcomes
•
Uplift Optimizer directly models the
difference in
behavior
between a
treated
group and a
control
group to find the people
most affected by an intervention
•
This allows us to:
–
target people who are
more
likely to buy given an incentive, rather than
simply those likely to buy
–
target people who
can be saved
from attrition by an intervention, rather
than simply those likely to attrite
–
target people whose risk of default (or expected loss) can be
reduced
by
intervention, rather than simply those with high risk
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
9
Uplift Targeting vs. Attrition Probability
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Proportion targeted
Attrition Rate
0%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2%
-
6%
-
2%
0%
2%
4%
-
4%
Targeted
Control
Reduction in
Attrition (Lift)
(Most likely to Attrite first)
(Most likely to
be saved
first
)
Uplift
rate
(
change
in Attrition probability)
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
10
Stay
Leave
Leave
Stay
Fundamental Segmentation for Retention
PERSUADABLES
SLEEPING DOGS
SURE THINGS
LOST CAUSES
When targeted
When not targeted
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
11
Attrition probability
if not targeted
0
SLEEPING DOGS
LOST CAUSES
SURE THINGS
PERSUADABLES
Attrition probability
if targeted
Predicting Savability
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
12
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Proportion targeted
Proportion of incremental effect
Sure Things
Act whether you
treat or not
© copyright Portrait Software 2007
1
2A
2B
3
Persuadables
Only act if treated
Sleeping Dogs
Act only if
not
treated
2
No impact
Positive
impact
Negative
impact
1
2
3
Incremental Impact for Retention
Lost Causes
Will not act,
even if treated
Put this money
back into your
marketing
budget
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
13
Uplift Optimizer 5.3 Themes
•
Increased Efficiency
–
Removed multiply
-
up stage
–
Performance enhancements for wide foci
–
Support implied case
-
weighting
•
Improved Usability
–
Better diagnostic reports (navigation, heat
-
maps, summaries)
–
Integrated with Analytics 5.3, updated documentation
–
Added progress reporting, better system
-
wide defaults
•
SAS Integration
–
Drive uplift
modeling
& reporting from SAS scripts
–
Deliver uplift models as SAS code, reports as SAS data
–
Read and write SAS datasets as always
General Availability: 3 November 2008
(
Rollout to all customers coordinated by Portrait Support)
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
14
Demonstration
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
15
Uplift Optimizer Futures
•
Themes:
–
Business
-
user focus: vs. SAS user
(Excel reporting, financial forecasting, what
-
if analysis)
–
Enhanced automation: fire & forget
(uplift assessment, better parameter search, recommend best model)
–
Intelligent targeting for outbound
•
Self
-
arbitrating response vs. uplift analysis
•
Web
-
based
•
Simple wizard
-
style interface
•
Integrated with PCM
•
Estimated availability: early 2009
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
17
Customer Case Studies
Deliver next generation targeting for customer retention (churn) campaigns
Removing negative effects thus decreasing both churn and campaign costs
Campaign ROI increased over 11 times previous campaigns
Churn rate decreases by an additional 36% over traditional approach
•
Traditional targeting reduced churn by 5% (from 23% to 18%)
•
But significant negative effects observed
•
Uplift model reduced these significantly
•
Saving 40% of treatment costs
•
Further reducing churn to 6.8%
Business Goals
ROI
Without Uplift
With Uplift
Treated
Volume
100%
Treated volume
reduced by 40%
60%
Reduction in
Overall Churn
Without Uplift
With Uplift
5%
6.8%
Results
improved
36%
19 %
15 %
14 %
12 %
14 %
13 %
15 %
14 %
10 %
11 %
9 %
8 %
11 %
10 %
9 %
23 %
19 %
17 %
14 %
18 %
16 %
20 %
18 %
11 %
13 %
11 %
9 %
13 %
12 %
11 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
jan.07
feb.07
mar.07
apr.07
mai.07
jun.07
jul.07
aug.07
sep.07
okt.07
nov.07
des.07
jan.08
feb.08
mar.08
Konkurrentchurn
Eksternchurn
Introduction of
first prediction
model
Introduction of
refined prediction
model
months
annual defection rate
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
18
A Next Generation Marketing Solution
Slash marketing costs while boosting revenue and
retention
Reduce customer ad fatigue
Eliminate the negative impact of marketing
Perfect for both inbound and outbound marketing
Proven
-
power to extend any analytics environment
The only packaged solution of its kind
Your Organization’s New
Competitive Advantage
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
19
Where to find out more …
•
Uplift Optimizer Support website:
http://support.quadstone.com/info/releases/#uo5.3
•
Documentation
–
What’s new in the Uplift Optimizer
release notes
–
Updated
Uplift Optimizer help
•
Uplift Optimizer Support
–
Web Site:
http://support.portraitsoftware.com/
–
Email:
support@portraitsoftware.com
–
Tel:
US 1
-
800
-
335
-
3860; All +44 131 240 3140
© 2008 Portrait
Software
Strictly Confidential
page
20
www.portraitsoftware.com
Europe (Headquarters)
The Smith Centre, The
Fairmile
Henley
-
on
-
Thames, Oxfordshire,
RG9 6AB, United Kingdom
T: +44 (0)1491 416600
F: +44 (0)1491 416601
Americas
125 Summer Street
16
th
Floor
Boston MA 02110, USA
T: +1 617 4575200
F: +1 617 4575299
Edinburgh
39
Melville Street
Edinburgh
EH3 7JF, United Kingdom
T: +44 (0) 131 220 4491
F: +44 (0) 131 220 4492
Asia Pacific
Level 7
15
-
17 Young Street
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia
F: +61 2 8004 9600
Oslo
Maridalsveien 87, Bygg 1
0461 Oslo
Norway
T:
+47 22 38 91 00
F:
+47 23 40 94 99
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