Slides - Quadstone System Support - Portrait Software

What’s New in
Uplift Optimizer 5.3

Patrick Surry

Product Manager

USA: 1 866 793 4279

Austria 0800 28 1673

Belgium: 0800 505 60

Canada: 1 866 270 8076

India 000800 100 6558

Republic of Ireland: 1800 944 607

Netherlands 0800 0233 593

Norway: 800 164 90

Spain 900 801 508

Sweden: 0200 125 679

UK: 0808

109 1441

International: +44 20 8609

1476

Access code
131716
#

Starting in 15 minutes

Starting in 10 minutes

Starting in 5 minutes

Starting in 2 minutes

Starting
Now

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
2

How to ask a Question

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


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3

What’s New in

Uplift Optimizer 5.3


© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


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4

What’s New in Uplift Optimizer 5.3


•
Presenter
:

Patrick Surry


•
Audience
:

Current users of Uplift Optimizer


•
Goal:

Highlight the key new features and functionality
provided in version 5.3


•
Format:

A live demo with some slides

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
5


Interaction Optimizer
™


Campaign Manager
™

Portrait Solutions

Sales

Service

Customer

Analytic

Insight

Analytic

Insight

Your CRM


•
Siebel

•
Microsoft

•
Salesforce.com

Marketing

Marketing
Channels

Campaign

Management

Campaign
Management

Interaction

Management

Uplift

Interaction
Management

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
6

Expert Opinion on Portrait’s Uplift Solution

“
Telenor

will realize an 11
-
fold increase in uplift campaign
ROI when compared with existing programs”



–

Gartner, “Magic Quadrant for Customer Data
-
Mining Applications 2008” , Gareth Herschel

“Innovative”


“Marketers can now add uplift modeling to
the arsenal of tools”

-

Forrester Research “Optimizing Customer Retention Programs”, Suresh
Vittal


-

Forrester Research “Optimizing Customer Retention Programs”, Suresh
Vittal


© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
8

Uplift
Modeling
: Core Idea

•
Traditional targeting is based on
modeling

outcomes, not
uplift

in outcomes


•
Uplift Optimizer directly models the
difference in
behavior

between a
treated

group and a
control

group to find the people
most affected by an intervention


•
This allows us to:

–
target people who are
more

likely to buy given an incentive, rather than
simply those likely to buy

–
target people who
can be saved
from attrition by an intervention, rather
than simply those likely to attrite

–
target people whose risk of default (or expected loss) can be
reduced

by
intervention, rather than simply those with high risk

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


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9

Uplift Targeting vs. Attrition Probability

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Proportion targeted

Attrition Rate

0%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2%



-
6%

-
2%

0%

2%

4%

-
4%

Targeted

Control

Reduction in
Attrition (Lift)

(Most likely to Attrite first)

(Most likely to
be saved
first
)

Uplift

rate

(
change
in Attrition probability)

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


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10



Stay

Leave

Leave

Stay

Fundamental Segmentation for Retention

PERSUADABLES



SLEEPING DOGS



SURE THINGS



LOST CAUSES



When targeted

When not targeted

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


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11

Attrition probability

if not targeted

0

SLEEPING DOGS

LOST CAUSES

SURE THINGS

PERSUADABLES

Attrition probability


if targeted



Predicting Savability

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


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12

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Proportion targeted
Proportion of incremental effect
Sure Things

Act whether you

treat or not

© copyright Portrait Software 2007

1

2A

2B

3

Persuadables

Only act if treated

Sleeping Dogs

Act only if
not

treated

2

No impact

Positive

impact

Negative

impact

1

2

3

Incremental Impact for Retention

Lost Causes

Will not act,

even if treated





Put this money
back into your
marketing
budget

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
13

Uplift Optimizer 5.3 Themes

•
Increased Efficiency

–
Removed multiply
-
up stage

–
Performance enhancements for wide foci

–
Support implied case
-
weighting


•
Improved Usability

–
Better diagnostic reports (navigation, heat
-
maps, summaries)

–
Integrated with Analytics 5.3, updated documentation

–
Added progress reporting, better system
-
wide defaults


•
SAS Integration

–
Drive uplift
modeling

& reporting from SAS scripts

–
Deliver uplift models as SAS code, reports as SAS data

–
Read and write SAS datasets as always


General Availability: 3 November 2008

(
Rollout to all customers coordinated by Portrait Support)

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
14

Demonstration

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
15

Uplift Optimizer Futures

•
Themes:

–
Business
-
user focus: vs. SAS user


(Excel reporting, financial forecasting, what
-
if analysis)

–
Enhanced automation: fire & forget


(uplift assessment, better parameter search, recommend best model)

–
Intelligent targeting for outbound

•
Self
-
arbitrating response vs. uplift analysis

•
Web
-
based

•
Simple wizard
-
style interface

•
Integrated with PCM


•
Estimated availability: early 2009


© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
17






Customer Case Studies

Deliver next generation targeting for customer retention (churn) campaigns

Removing negative effects thus decreasing both churn and campaign costs



Campaign ROI increased over 11 times previous campaigns



Churn rate decreases by an additional 36% over traditional approach







•

Traditional targeting reduced churn by 5% (from 23% to 18%)

•

But significant negative effects observed

•

Uplift model reduced these significantly

•

Saving 40% of treatment costs

•

Further reducing churn to 6.8%






Business Goals


ROI

Without Uplift
With Uplift
Treated
Volume
100%
Treated volume
reduced by 40%
60%
Reduction in
Overall Churn
Without Uplift
With Uplift
5%
6.8%
Results
improved
36%
19 %
15 %
14 %
12 %
14 %
13 %
15 %
14 %
10 %
11 %
9 %
8 %
11 %
10 %
9 %
23 %
19 %
17 %
14 %
18 %
16 %
20 %
18 %
11 %
13 %
11 %
9 %
13 %
12 %
11 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
jan.07
feb.07
mar.07
apr.07
mai.07
jun.07
jul.07
aug.07
sep.07
okt.07
nov.07
des.07
jan.08
feb.08
mar.08
Konkurrentchurn
Eksternchurn
Introduction of
first prediction
model

Introduction of
refined prediction
model

months

annual defection rate

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
18

A Next Generation Marketing Solution


Slash marketing costs while boosting revenue and
retention


Reduce customer ad fatigue


Eliminate the negative impact of marketing


Perfect for both inbound and outbound marketing


Proven
-

power to extend any analytics environment


The only packaged solution of its kind


Your Organization’s New
Competitive Advantage

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
19

Where to find out more …

•
Uplift Optimizer Support website:




http://support.quadstone.com/info/releases/#uo5.3


•
Documentation

–
What’s new in the Uplift Optimizer
release notes

–
Updated

Uplift Optimizer help



•
Uplift Optimizer Support

–
Web Site:

http://support.portraitsoftware.com/

–
Email:

support@portraitsoftware.com

–
Tel:

US 1
-
800
-
335
-
3860; All +44 131 240 3140

© 2008 Portrait
Software


Strictly Confidential


page
20

www.portraitsoftware.com

Europe (Headquarters)

The Smith Centre, The
Fairmile

Henley
-
on
-
Thames, Oxfordshire,

RG9 6AB, United Kingdom

T: +44 (0)1491 416600

F: +44 (0)1491 416601


Americas

125 Summer Street

16
th

Floor

Boston MA 02110, USA

T: +1 617 4575200

F: +1 617 4575299


Edinburgh

39
Melville Street

Edinburgh

EH3 7JF, United Kingdom

T: +44 (0) 131 220 4491

F: +44 (0) 131 220 4492


Asia Pacific

Level 7

15
-
17 Young Street

Sydney NSW 2000

Australia

F: +61 2 8004 9600



Oslo

Maridalsveien 87, Bygg 1

0461 Oslo

Norway

T:
+47 22 38 91 00

F:
+47 23 40 94 99


Questions?