61134_TCU Supply Chain Presentationx - WikiLeaks

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29 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 8 μήνες)

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Global Supply Chain Threats: Impacts to
Multinational Corporations



Track and monitor exogenous threats to the corporate supply chain so
that corporations can make proactive decisions to mitigate threats.

How STRATFOR Looks at Supply Chain

Types of Supply Chain Threats



Terrorism and Insurrection


Crime


Political and Regulatory Environment


Labor Unrest and Action


Natural Disasters


International Frictions


Nongovernmental Organizations


Mexico: A Case Study



The U.S. is Mexico's
largest trading partner


Large hub for U.S.
-
based
multinational
corporations


Manufacturing and
retail clients


Great concerns about
Mexico’s security
environment impacting
business operations and
supply chain

Terrorism and Insurrection



Medium risk


Domestic security threats arising from insurgency or terrorism


home to several rebel movements, including the Zapatista Army for National
Liberation and the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR)


operate mostly in the southern and southeastern regions


Potential for specific attacks against foreign interests


History of attacks against financial and energy targets although frequency has
decreased in last year.


Drop in such activities in last couple of years. Cartel war has dominated
security threat environment.


Crime Environment



High risk


Critical level of organized criminal activity

drug cartels control supply
chain routes


Great potential for theft and violence


Number of deaths steadily increasing since 2006.


15,000 deaths associated with organized crime in 2010, according to Mexican
government.


Organized crime pervasive throughout society, politics and security


Police and security forces face severe challenges when attempting to
counter threats

death threats and corruption.


Mexico’s Cartel War

Mexico’s Cartel War

Political and Regulatory Environment



Low risk


Regulations are clear and enforced


Friendly attitude toward foreign investments and operations


ex. NAFTA


President Calderon is seeking policies to encourage increased
transparency from the government and government
-
owned businesses.


However, economic transparency and rampant corruption remain a
challenge.

Labor Unrest and Action



High risk


Organized labor at local and national levels is strong, is present across
companies and industries, and has a powerful political voice.


Labor strikes are common, although usually quickly resolved through
negotiations


Strikes create security disruptions

road blocks; violence sometimes
employed

Natural Disasters



High risk


High rate of seismic activity


Both the Pacific and the Gulf/Caribbean coasts are affected annually by
tropical storms and hurricanes, which can lead to disruptions in harvests
and distribution


Seasonal floods are possible in the south


Droughts throughout the south and the Baja Peninsula are possible


Infrastructure is relatively extensive and well
-
developed, although roads
are often of lower quality in interior, posing some challenges to disaster
response

International Frictions



Low risk


Positive economic, political and military relations and interactions with
other nations


More free trade agreements than any other country


Low chances for disputes to take on a more concrete form, although
increasing tension along the U.S.
-
Mexican border


Most disputes relate to issues such as drug trafficking, illegal
immigrants and immigration agreements


Concerns about spillover of violence

Mexico: Nongovernmental Organizations



High risk


NGOs have significant political impact


Examples: Roman Catholic Church, worker and peasant groups and
foreign NGOs that are inclined toward socialism and anticorruption
groups


NGOs have targeted trade in the past and can generate international
support for their issues


New anti
-
violence organizations are putting increasing pressure on the
government through public gatherings and marches

Reactions of MNCs to Supply Chain Threats



Many MNCs continue to operate and invest in Mexico due to low labor
costs, despite critical security threats, seeking third party consultants due
to concerns amongst shareholders or Board.


Concerns over increasing foreign presence in the line of fire


Increasing operational costs to guard against/react to organized crime
threats


Cost
-
benefit analysis


Need for proactive intelligence and
countersurveillance

to stay ahead of
threats and keep costs down




For more information, please contact:


Fred Burton

burton@stratfor.com

(512) 744
-
4300