Goal 3 - Foster Increased Supply

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 7 μήνες)

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The State of Natural
Gas Supply

APPA Meeting

March 15,2011

Phoenix, AZ

1

Dave Risser, Marathon

Mark Quartermain, Shell

A Decade Makes A Difference

Then



Shale known but uneconomic


Storage rates regulated


Four LNG ports, not all active


Conventional gas dominates


63
-
year supply


Incomplete price transparency


Limited means to respond to
sudden demand changes


Now



Burgeoning production


Market
-
based storage rates


Eight
-
plus active LNG ports


Shale gas growing fast


100
-
year supply


Most transparent fuel market in
world


Highly market
-
responsive
supply

2

2

Decade of Growing Natural Gas Infrastructure

3

4

4

5

5

5

How Shale Produces Natural Gas

6
Sou
Source: Energy Tomorrow

6

6

Technology’s role:


Why the revolution



Traps vs. shales

Migrating

hydrocarbons

Shale

Frack

Porous and
permeable

reservoir layer

Hydrocarbon Trap

Impermeable

sealing layer

organic rich

source
layer

Fracture stimulation 5,000’


15,000’ below the surface

#

8

Changes in price

Source: CME Group, a CME/Chicago
Board of Trade Company

Ebb and Flow of Commodity Prices

Natural Gas 2002
-
2010


10

Source: CME Group, a CME/Chicago
Board of Trade Company

Ebb and Flow of Commodity Prices

Natural Gas compared to Crude Oil & Coal
2002
-
2010

11

Ebb and Flow of Commodity Prices

Natural Gas compared to other Major Commodities
2002
-
2010


Source: CME Group, a CME/Chicago
Board of Trade Company

12

Natural Gas Myths

MYTH #1

”There’s not enough natural gas to meet demand from
manufacturers
and

electrics”


U.S. supply up 40 percent since 2006 due to shale


100
-
year supply with
potential to grow


MYTH #2


“Offshore drilling ban will hurt natural gas customers”


Most GOM gas production located in shallow water and excluded from ban


MYTH # 3


“Heavy
-
handed regulation of shale could stop its
production”


States are heavily invested in shale production


50,000 jobs created in
2009 in Pennsylvania alone


MYTH #4


“Natural gas is vulnerable to Middle East policies”


Between 1 and 3 percent of U.S. demand is met by LNG imports


75 percent of those imports are from Trinidad & Tobago, remainder from
Norway, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Qatar.



13

NYT/Radium Issue


New York Times
alleges that radium from
produced shale water ends up in
Pennsylvania drinking water


Producers take all such allegations seriously


PA authorities subsequently published test
results showing water meets fed/state
radium standards


Producer goal: Recycle 100% produced
water

up to 65% now


Support further state testing

14

Final Thoughts


Entire gas industry significantly expanded
since 2000


Industry takes “Fracking” issue seriously, but
believes it can be managed


Competitive market has dampened price
volatility


“Dash to Gas” issue overstated


U.S. enjoys most robust, transparent, and
reliable natural gas industry in world

15

Thank You

16

Backup Slides

17



18

Natural Gas Among Cleanest Electric
Generation Alternatives

Most emissions

Middle
emissions

Least
emissions

Source: R.W. Beck

Tons /year/thousand
households


Biomass

(Wood)

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear &

Renewables

CO

51

5.8

1.5

0.0

CO2)

0.0

9,362

3,558

0.0

NOx

28

3.4

0.3

0.0

Particulate Matter

2.7

0.9

0.0

0.0

VOCs

5.6

0.2

0.0

0.0

SO2

2.8

5.0

0.2

0.0

Mercury

0.0

0.0001

trace

0.0