GLGi: Drybulk Carrier

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

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GLGi: Drybulk Carrier

Jonathan Feffer

© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Council Member Biography



Jonathan Feffer is President at JF Maritime, Inc., a
successor company to Mystic Shipping & Trading of which he was
principal and Managing Director. These firms engaged in
arranging sale and charter of ocean
-
going vessels of all types and
offshore drilling rigs. In addition, these companies provided
consulting services in connection with vessel financing, and
movement of vessels for scrapping. He was Vice President of
Maritime Overseas Corporation, agents and brokers for Overseas
Shipholding Group, President of Itel Navigation, Inc, a subsidiary
of Itel Corp., and Chief Executive of InterMaritime Management, a
shipowning company in Geneva. He holds an AB in economics
from New York University and completed some MBA graduate
work. He served in the US Army and rose to the rank of Captain.
He is or was a member of several industry groups, including the
Society of Maritime Arbitrators and served as Director of the
Association of Shipbrokers and Agents.


© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Potential Topics of Discussion



Vessels & fleets: Types, ship values, & conversions




Demand factors: Importing & exporting countries




Market factors: Vessel availability & port congestion



© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

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© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts


Emily Ramey

Energy & Industrials

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212
-
984
-
3680

eramey@glgroup.com


Aaron Liberman

Sales & Marketing

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212
-
984
-
3684

aliberman@glgroup.com


Carly Pisarri

Process Manager

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212
-
750
-
1435

cpisarri@glgroup.com

© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

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Dry Bulk Shipping

Courtesy Intrepid Shipping

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

8

Table of Contents


Bulk Carrier 101


Vessel Sizes


Bulk Trades


Fleet


Vessel Values


Charter Rates


Financing


Outlook


Q&A

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

9

Bulk Carrier 101

Simplest vessel designed to carry cargoes in bulk

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

10

Vessel Sizes


Capesize

80,000
-

200,000 DWT*


Panamax

65,000


80,000


Handymax

35,000


65,000


Handy

10,000


35,000


Kamsarmax

82,000


Post Panamax

90,000+



* Deadweight tons

Courtesy OSG

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

11

Bulk Trades


Iron Ore


Coal (Coking & Thermal)


Cement


Bauxite & Alumina


Grains


Fertilizers


Scrap Metal


Steel Products


Forest Products

Courtesy G. Bros Maritime S.A.

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

12

Bulk Trades

Capesize


Iron Ore


Coal

Courtesy G. Bros Maritime S.A.

Courtesy Intrepid Shipping

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

13

Bulk Trades

Panamax


Coal


Grain

Courtesy Intrepid Shipping

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

14

Bulk Trades

Handymax


Grain


Steel Products

Courtesy Federal Navigation

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

15

Bulk Trades

Handy


Fertilizers


Sugar


Cement


Steel Products


Forest Products

Courtesy Federal Navigation

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

16

Bulk Trades

Kamsarmax


Largest vessel able to load at bauxite (and
alumina plant under construction) at Guinea,
West Africa, about 82,000 DWT


Post
-
Panamax


Vessel of about 90,000 DWT+, able to transit
new Panama Canal locks when completed
about 2014

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

17

Fleet

Existing Fleet Worldwide By Size

Capesize


760

Panamax

1,460

Handymax

1,565

Handy

2,800

Total

6,585

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

18

Fleet

Existing Fleet Worldwide By Age

5-9
19%
10-14
18%
15-19
8%
20+
29%
0-4
26%
11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

19

Fleet

New Building

TYPE OF SHIP
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
TOTAL ORDERBOOK
Capesize
8
50
130
245
125
15
2
575
80-100,000 DWT
8
41
68
121
90
12
0
340
Panamax
14
67
45
65
26
8
0
225
Handymax
35
149
224
209
93
11
0
721
Handy
24
104
189
138
51
12
3
521
11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

20

Fleet


Shipbuilding Yards


Japan


Korea


China


Vietnam


India


Others


Technical Issues


Financial Issues

New Building

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

21

Fleet

Bulk Carrier Fleet Additions and Removals

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

22

Fleet

Demolition

Panamax
:


2 in 2005


13 in 2006


5 in 2007 year to date


Capesize
:


5 in 2005


3 in 2006


0 in 2007 year to date


Increase expected in 2009

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

23

Fleet

Demolition


Venues (China, India Sub
-
continent)


Basel Convention


New Venues


“Green” Recycling

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

24

Fleet

Conversions

VLCC to VLOC


Easiest technically


Estimated:



4 million DWT in 2008



3 million DWT in 2009


Suezmax & Aframax Tankers


Estimated 25
-
30 vessels


New Building Contract Changes


Contract premium

Cargo Hold

Hatch Cover

Upper Ballast Tank

Double Bottom

Lower Ballast Tank

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

25

Vessel Values

TYPE OF SHIP
NB (in
$mm)
Prompt Resale
(in $mm)
5 Years
(in $mm)
10 Years
(in $mm)
20 Years
(in $mm)
12 Month T/C
(Per Day)
Capesize
$94.0
$160.0
$135.0
$105.0
$64.0
$165,000
Panamax
$52.0
$103.0
$88.0
$77.0
$42.0
$80,000
Handymax
$45.0
$85.0
$75.0
$61.0
$39.0
$68,000
11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

26

Charter Rates

$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07E
4Q07E
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Time Charter Basis

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

27

Financing


Public



Equity



Debt



Lease Financing

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

28

Financing

Equity


JP Morgan



Maxim



Merrill Lynch



Deutsche Bank



Citigroup

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

29

Financing

Publicly Owned Dry Bulk Carrier Companies


Dryships, Inc. (DRYS)


Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)


Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM)


Frontline Ltd. (FRO)
-

Tankers and Bulk Carriers


Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG)
-

Tankers and Bulk Carriers


Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (GNK)
-

Sister Company of General
Maritime


Navios (NM)


Quintana Maritime Ltd. (QMAR)


Ship Finance International (SFL)


TBS International Limited (TBSI)


Torm (TRMD)

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

30

Financing

Debt


Deutsche Bank


Citigroup


Nordea


Credit Suisse


Commerzbank


Merrill Lynch/Lehman Brothers

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

31

Financing

Lease Financing


Sale/Leaseback

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

32

Outlook

“In the sea there is
hope.”


Christopher Columbus

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

33

Outlook

Dry Bulk Trade Growth

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

34

Outlook

Ore Demand

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

35

Outlook

Coal Demand

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

36

Outlook

Coal Demand


Increased use of coal for CTL (Coal to Liquid) in
Asia


Japan’s imports to double in 2030 from 2005
levels


Coal
-
fired electric generating plants in:


Taiwan


India


Vietnam


Demand to double 2030 from 2004 levels

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

37

Outlook

Coal Supply


Australia


Increasing production and enlarging/improving port
facilities to increase exports



Indonesia


Increasing low
-
cost, low
-
sulphur coal production;
expected to surpass Australia

11 December 2007

Jonathan Feffer

38

Outlook


Continuing strong underlying demand for bulk
commodities and slowing fleet growth point to favorable
dry bulk shipping market.



The strength of the dry bulk shipping market will inure to
the benefit of the tanker market, now slowing, as the
projects fed by the increase in dry bulk cargoes, when
completed, will require petroleum and petroleum
products.



The container trade is likewise expected to benefit as the
Asian economy continues to grow.